Here's the latest Film Awards Clearinghouse number crunching using published information from:
Awards Daily
The Hollywood Reporter
The Movie City News
Incontention (at HitFix)
Hollywood Elsewhere
Film Misery
FIlm Experience
Thompson on Hollywood
Awards Circuit
TFF #38 films in Bold and Large
BEST PICTURE
1)The Artist
2) The Descendants
3) War Horse
4) Hugo
5) The Help
6) Moneyball
7) Midnight in Paris
8) Extremely Loud
9) The Tree of Life
10) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
11) The Ides of March
12) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
13) Drive
14) J. Edgar
15) My Week with Marilyn
Out: Shame, The Iron Lady
Hot: HUGO (red hot!), Drive
Not: Midnight in Paris, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar
Comment: We’re a month from the announcement of the nominees
and you can book them coming from the 1-9 spots. I still believe there will be 7 BP noms and
at this point I feel that only Artist, Descendants and Hugo are locks. That’s right; I skipped over #3 War
Horse…because I just think it’s not a lock, at least not yet. Same for The Help and Moneyball. Those three are probable…but just not locks. And I also believe that Paris, Extremely Loud
and Tree are going to battle for the 7th spot. My money would be on Tree of Life at this
point. Personally, I’d be voting “Shame”
best film of the year…(my Top Ten list for 2011 is coming soon).
BEST DIRECTION
1) Michel Hazanavicius/Artist
2) Alexander Payne/Descendants
3) Martin Scorsese/Hugo
4) Terrence Malick/Tree of Life
5) Steven Spielberg/War Horse
6) Bennett Miller/Moneyball
7) Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
8) Stephen Daldry/Extremely Loud
9) David Fincher/Tattoo
10) George Clooney/Ides
Out: Tomas Alfredson/Tinker, Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar
Hot: SCORSESE/HUGO (scorching!) and Malick
Not: Allen and Daldry
Comment: This is a
real tell as far as I’m concerned about the weakness of the positions of The
Help and Midnight in Paris as Best Picture players…and also a reason that I
think Tree of Life might get a Best Picture nomination.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Viola Davis/The Help
2) Meryl Streep/Iron Lady
3) Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
4) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
5) Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin
6) Charlize Theron/Young Adult
7) Rooney Mara/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy…
9) Felicity Jones/Like Crazy
10) Olivia Colman/Tyrannosaur
Out: Kirsten Dunst/Melancholia
Hot: Streep and Swinton
Not: Nobody really
Comment: Swinton’s
star has risen meteorically the last month and the top five look pretty solid
with just a month left to go. Theron and
Mara appear to be the only outliers that might have a chance to crash the
party.
BEST ACTOR
1) George Clooney/Descendants
2) Jean Dujardin/Artist
3) Brad Pitt/Moneyball
4) Michael Fassbender/Shame
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar
6) Gary Oldman/Tinker Tailor
7) Demian Bichir/A Better Life
8) Woody Harrelson/Rampart
9) Ryan Gosling/Ides of March
10) Michael Shannon/Take Shelter
Out: Jordan Gordon-Leavitt/ 50/50
Hot: Bichir
Not: Shannon
Comment: Fassbender
seemed like an #occupyoscar project two months ago…now he seems pretty solidly
locked into a likely nomination. As a
matter of fact…this category is probably the closest of the Big 8 to be locked
into these five as the nominees.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Octavia Spencer/The Help
2) Shailene Woodley/Descendants
3) Berenice Bejo/Artist
4) Jessica Chastain/The Help
5) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
6) Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
7) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids
8) Carey Mulligan/Shame
9) Sandra Bullock/Extremely Loud
10) Judi Dench/J. Edgar
Out: Chastain (Tree of Life)
Hot: Chastain (The Help)
Not: Nobody
Comment: It seems that
the world has decided that it will be Jessica Chastain’s role in “The Help”
that will get enough love to boost her to a nomination as opposed to “Tree of
Life” or “Take Shelter” or… And that’s
fine. Chastain really should be
recognized as one of these nominees. I
can’t think of anyone who has had a better year. I’d still prefer to see Mulligan get a
nomination over just about anyone else in the field and that’s not completely
impossible, but it seems very unlikely at this point. I will say this, though. The only 100% lock right now is Spencer. Anyone else from the 2-8 spots could be in or
out come the morning of Jan. 24.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Christopher Plummer/Beginners
2) Albert Brooks/Drive
3) Kenneth Brannagh/Marilyn
4) Max Von Sydow/Extremely Close
5) Nick Nolte/Warrior
6) Jonah Hill/Moneyball
7) Patton Oswalt/Young Adult
8) Armie Hammer/J. Edgar
9) Brad Pitt/Tree of Life
10) Viggo Mortensen/Dangerous Method
Out: Kevin Spacey/Margin Call and Philip Seymour Hoffman/Ides
of March
Hot: Nolte
Not: Oswalt
Comment: It’s amazing
what some notice from precursors will do as in the case of Nick Nolte (and to a
lesser extent Armie Hammer) who has caught fire as an Oscar possible again this
last couple of weeks. It still seems
that Plummer, Brooks and Brannagh are pretty much locked in and then the last
two spots figure to be in play between Nolte, Von Sydow, Oswalt and Hill. My money (for the moment) is on Nolte and Von
Sydow.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Descendants
2) Moneyball
3) Hugo
4) Extremely Loud
5) Tinker Tailor
6) War Horse
7) The Help
8) Girl with Dragon Tattoo
9) Ides of March
10) Drive
Out: We Need to Talk About Kevin
Hot: Hugo
Not: Tattoo
Comment: This category remains wide open after The
Descendants and Moneyball.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Midnight in Paris
2) The Artist
3) Young Adult
4) The Tree of Life
5) Win Win
6) 50/50
7) Margin Call
8) Rango
9) Bridesmaids
10) Shame
Out: Martha Marcy and J. Edgar
Hot: Young Adult, Win Win, 50/50, Margin Call
Not: Bridesmaids, Shame
Comment: Paris and Artist look solid…after that this category
is a free for all as well.
Telluride = 13 nominations and 4 possibles in the latest
configuration (remarkably consistent for 3 and ½ months).
THE CRITICS AND 2011
A couple of cumulative crtitcs polls were published this week. They're interesting reading, if you care about what critics think about this year's crop of film.
IndieWire compiled lists from nearly 200 critics and they provided several categories in addition to Best Film. Their cumulative top twenty is (numbers to the right are total points and judges votes):
You can find the entire set of lists here:
http://www.indiewire.com/survey/
Telluride films in this Top Twnety were: at #3 A Separation, at #11 Shame, #12 The Descendants, #13 The Artist, # 16 A Dangerous Method, and #18 We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Meanwhile The Village Voice has done the same thing with 95 critics and you can find all of their results here:
http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/village-voice-poll-2011-yep-its-the-tree-of-life-but%E2%80%A6
Their Top Twenty is:
1) The Tree of Life
2) A Separation
3) Melancholia
4) Certified Copy
5) Mysteries of Lisbon
6) Uncle Boonmee
7) Margaret
8) Meek's Cutoff
9) Drive
10) Take Shelter
11) Hugo
12) A Dangerous Method
13) Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
14) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
15) The Descendants
16) Weekend
17) The Artist
18) Poetry
19) Shame
20) Film Socialisme
Telluride films on this Top Twenty: at #2 A Separation, #12 A Dangerous Method, #15 The Descendants, #17 The Artist and #19 Shame. Honorable mention to Poetry at #18 which was TFF #37.
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More next Monday!
