Our Man in Utah Back Home

From the travel weary Sundancer...Gant Lee:

I’ve since made it back to Oklahoma, but I didn’t recap my 4th day of being at the festival. So let me do that right now, complete with mini-reviews!

The Comedy was popular at the festival for (apparently) all of the wrong reasons. There were numerous walkouts and critical responses to the film. Naturally, this only fueled my desire to see the film. I love it when filmmakers challenge the audience to see something new. Ultimately, I was satisfied. I’d rather see a film that tries something new and fails than see a film that does something old and boring and succeeds. Rick Alverson’s The Comedy belongs in the former category (minus the failure). The film follows the life of Swanson (played by Tim Heidecker). That’s really all I can say about the narrative (or lack thereof). I think that’s where most people had a problem with this film. Besides the fact that it doesn’t follow the typical three-act narrative structure, the characters are quite volatile. The dialogue is rude and offensive. The first scene of the film is shows a naked party where there is much stumbling, tucking, and beer-pouring. So yeah, I guess the film isn’t for everybody, but it’s funny that people showed up to the film when the write-up for it clearly states that it makes the audience “question their boundaries and whether they should be laughing with it, at it, or not at all.” The film should be discomforting, because it’s a story about the status of a really destructive generation of people. It’s easy to walk out of the film, but it isn’t that easy to dismiss it in real life, something that probably scared those people. Life has become so ironic for these characters that they lash out and behave irreverently. If you think that nobody has the potential to reach this level of indifference, you are sorely mistaken. The only problem I have with this is that the film knows what it’s doing and feels haughty because of it. Thus, there are some scenes in particular that make the film feel a little pretentious. Regardless, The Comedy tried something new and didn’t rely on traditional narrative or technical tactics to get its point across. Although film can be a very entertaining medium, it isn’t always that way. Explicit art is still art. We should always push the boundaries of what can and can’t be filmed. If you can’t accept that, go watch One for the Money. 7/10

With my student pass, I was lucky enough to get into a student-only event where filmmakers would come chat with us, speed-dating style. Boy was that a treat. I didn’t really have a whole lot to ask them (because I don’t necessarily aspire to be a filmmaker), but it was fun listening to them nonetheless. They were nice. They were personal. They were fun. They were encouraging They were human. Those are pretty refreshing realizations when it comes to the film industry.

My last film of the festival was Room 237, a look at conspiracy theories concerning Stanley Kubrick’s The Shining. This is the kind of film that I want to see while I’m at a film festival. A film like this probably won’t be hitting every movie screen in America, so I want to see this kind of stuff when I can. I have to say, this is one of the most entertaining documentaries I have seen. But let’s be fair… I love The Shining and Stanley Kubrick. This particular film caters to those individuals. Kubrick was masterful in his filmmaking, and this film is really just an examination of that. This is displayed by a couple of interviews that take place throughout the documentary. None of the interviewees (nor interviewers) are seen during the film so we can pay more attention and listen to what they’re describing concerning the film. What they’re describing is quite humorous. In a lot of funny ways, I will never look at The Shining the same way ever again. Various theories are tossed around such as “Kubrick is commenting on the genocide of Native Americans”, “He’s obviously talking about the Holocaust”, and “This film is helping prove that Kubrick filmed the fake moon landing.” While these statements may all seem ridiculous, they confirm the power of film as an art. We all have different opinions about film and that’s what makes discussing it so fun! Although the documentary mainly looks at The Shining, it’s a movie about us and our fun obsession with finding something deeper in films. A fun, independent gem. 9/10

I can promise one more post. It will include an entire recap of the festival, commentary from a special “guest correspondent”, and thank-yous.

SAG Awards

Good Morning!

One semi-big surprise at The Screen Actors Guild Awards last night as Jean Dujardin won Best Actor over George Clooney.  That did nothing to dissuade those that believe that "The Artist" has a death grip on the Best Picture Oscar.  The other tiny surprise ( I wasn't) was Viola Davis over Meryl Streep for Best Actress.  All in all "The Help" scored three "Actors" on the evening. 

There still may be a slight case to be made that "The Help" or even "Hugo" or "The Descendants" might stage an upset for BP on Oscar night...but it'd be a stretch.  BTW, I still think Clooney ends up winning the Oscar.

Here's the complete film results from last night (via Awards Daily):

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
★ Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
★ Viola Davis, The Help
Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
★ Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
★ Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Cast in a Motion Picture
★ The Help

 I expect to have  a concluding post up from Sundance from Our Man in Utah later today sometime...look for that!

Later!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to MTFB/FAC: Hazanavicius Wins/Sundance Concluding

Good Morning, World!

The Director's Guild of America named "The Artist" director Michel Hazanavicius the winner of its award for directing feature films last night.  Needless to say, that throws more fuel on the "It's a lock" for Best Picture fire.  I think that notion is probably true.  I have been thinking that one could make a reasonable case for the chances of an upset by "Hugo" or "The Descendants" or possibly even "The Help".  But probably not.

The SAG awards are tonight.  We'll have those results for you in tomorrow's post and also the parsing of them to see if they reveal any surprises or new wrinkles for the conventional wisdom as we edge closer to Oscar Day/Feb. 26.

Here's the complete skinny on last night's DGA awards from Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/2012-directors-guild-awards-michel-hazanavicius/

SUNDANCE CONCLUDING

The Sundance Film Festival is ratcheting down and they announced their awards last night.  Again, it seemed that there were two big, buzzy films: "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "The Surrogate".  The awards list underscores that.  Here, from HitFix is the complete Sundance Awards rundown:
http://www.hitfix.com/articles/2012-sundance-film-festival-jury-awards-winners
IMDb page for "The Surrogate": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1866249/
and for "Beasts..": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2125435/


I am hoping to receive another dispatch or two from Our Man in Utah, Gant Lee of Cinema Bebop to pass along about his Sundance experiences.
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/

Later...

Our Man in Utah: Day 3

Gant Lee of Cinema Bebop continues his assault on the Sundance Film Festival. Here's his latest post: Day 3 Man, things are speeding up around here quickly. I wish I could bore you with details, but I saw 4 films tonight and I forgot an event from yesterday. So I’m gonna make this quick. Last night, I had the privilege of attending a live performance/event for Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s production company, hitRECord. This open production company allows for people to upload their work to hitRECord.org and collaborate with other artists? Wrote a story? Someone will turn it into a song. Have little drawings? Someone will animate them. Throughout the event, people were encouraged to record the happenings to later upload for a particular Sundance project. One of such recordings that JGL conducted included me singing a song I’ve never heard before on a stage with a ton of strangers. I was nearly 2 feet away from JGL, so that’s cool……. For reasons unknown, none of my devices that I have on me can successfully upload pictures to this post. So, check out my Facebook or lesleyll.tumblr.com to see some pics from the event. It was a blast! Glad I made it in to something yesterday. Saw a Greek film this morning titled L. Didn’t like it as much as I expected. In the essence of time, suffice to say that it wasn’t as good as Dogtooth even with some same main crew members. 5.5/10 Caught a screening for Smashed with the only ticket that I was given all festival. It was fantastic. Mary Elizabeth Winstead did amazing and lived up to the hype. She was also there with the director to answer questions, smile, and just be pretty. The film did a great job showing the downsides to sobriety, something that isn’t really explored in other films. The script was fantastic and had one of the saddest lines I’ve ever heard in a movie. Perhaps Winstead’s acting just made the writing seem better, but probably not. It was a well written script and a great film all around. By the way, Ron Swanson is awkward in this; it went over well with the crowd. 9/10 Brady Corbet freaks me out; his role in the American version of Funny Games is still frightening to me. In his latest film Simon Killer, he continues his streak of weird characters. When his long-term relationship ends, Simon travels to France. His visit steadily goes down an odd path and ultimately to a point where it’s hard to root for the main character. The acting was brilliant (hence our hatred for Simon), the soundtrack was great, and the cinematography was very unique. And original vision, for sure. Brady and director Antonio Campos were there to field questions and are much nicer than this dark film would have you believe. A hard film to recommend to everybody because it’s so dark… 8/10 Lastly, I checked out the midnight screening of Tim and Eric’s Billion Dollar Movie. This mini-review is simple… If you love Tim and Eric, you’ll love this. If you don’t like Tim and Eric’s comedy, then you probably won’t like this. I could have seen this online had I wanted to (it was released on-demand today), but I wanted to experience it with a crowd full of fans. Without the restrictions of television, Tim and Eric have so much more freedom to do whatever they want with the film, something exemplified in the crude nature of the film. Sometimes, it felt like there was too much of a story, an odd concern for most films that aren’t adapted from 15-minute shows of unique humor. It never dragged; it just felt like they were trying too hard to make it a solid narrative through some middle parts. But that mildness and linearity was ruined often, and the audience was thankful for it. These problems were light and hardly did anything to make the film bad. It was hilarious! After the film, the programmer welcomed Tim and Eric to the stage… Except it was Tim and David Cross. A good time was had by all as David kept answering questions as Eric and Tim gave ridiculous answers to almost all questions. As they were leaving the theater, I patted Tim on the back and said, “Great job!” He smiled and said thanks. As for David, I shared with him a particular anecdote about my grandparents and a wedding he attended that he actually remembered. He said my grandparents were awesome, and then I should his hand. So yeah, pretty good screening. 8.5/10 Tomorrow is my last day! I hope I can make it special!

Our Man in Utah: Day 2

Day 2 To say that this day was a success would be a near complete lie. I’m at a film festival and I didn’t watch one feature-length film today. Pathetic. As a result, I can take this opportunity to explain to readers what exactly the “wait list” is that I’m always tweeting about and compare the pros and cons of it. First, let’s talk about more buzz from around the festival. Given my misfortunes today, The Surrogate and Beasts of the Southern Wild are still the most talked about films around town. Each film had to reject ticketed patrons because of the big audiences. They didn’t overbook; I’ll explain later. They both have distribution, so that’s all that matters. In addition to these two films, people here (and on the interwebs) have been chatting up Mary Elizabeth Winstead’s performance in the drinking drama Smashed (which I have an actual ticket to for tomorrow). She stars opposite Breaking Bad’s Aaron Paul, so I’m highly stoked to see it. Josh Radnor’s sophomore effort Liberal Arts got picked up by IFC. His filmmaking abilities have apparently improved and he includes the ever-so-popular indie darling Elizabeth Olsen. Among the controversial buzz is a film called Compliance. People have reportedly been walking out of screenings verbally disgusted and offended by the true-event story of a teenage girl cashier accused of stealing something at a fast food restaurant. What she has to do in order to comply with authorities is apparently hard to watch. You say controversial; I say edgy. Screenings are finished for the film, so who knows what will happen with it next. Now, instead of trying to explain only the wait list, I’ll try to encapsulate the entire ticketing process. There are 3 ways of attending a film here at Sundance: passes, tickets, and the wait list. Passes are the fastest way to get in. You line up at the front and you flash your pass. Simple. Next are the tickets. You can go to the box office and pick up a ticket to any film you want for $15. Yeah, that sounds easy, but it isn’t. Hot films sellout FAST. If there is a large volume of passholders, there may even be a chance that ticketed patrons don’t even get in. In that case, I believe a refund is rewarded. Then there is the wait list. My particular student pass allows me to wait list for free, so that’s what I do a lot. Two hours before the screening starts, wait list tickets are handed out guaranteeing you a spot in the same wait list line 30 minutes before the show. Yes, it’s a line for a ticket for a line for a ticket. It’s not all that confusing though, I promise. After all the passholders and tickets get through and somehow seats are still available, then the wait list gets tickets for $15. It’s what the lazy and slower people do for the festival. On Wednesday, I was 2/2 on the waYit list, but yesterday I was 0/2. Check out my previous posts for other Sundance updates! I’ll try my hardest to keep updating… It’s so exhausting… ^.-

Our Man in Utah: Sundance Review: Shut Up and Play the Hits

OUR MAN IN UTAH

Cinema Bebop's Gant Lee continues his Sundance Film Festival experience with a screening of "Shut Up and Play the Hits".  Here's his review...


SHUT UP AND PLAY THE HITS

Part concert film and part interview/documentary, SHUT UP AND PLAY THE HITS chronicles the ending of a band called LCD Soundsystem. It’s not a sad story full of heartbreak and disaster, but a story about a group of people that were literally in control of their own destiny. At the top of his career, James Murphy decided to walk away from rockstar status and not overstay his welcome. Although the film offers an extraordinary portrait of one of the most self-aware artists of the last decade, the film’s inability to show you the full Chuck Klosterman interview or the full concert keeps it from feeling complete. It feels like a short documentary with a few music videos in between or a short concert film with the DVD extras playing throughout. Regardless, you’ll be happy with anything you can get.





Concert film- If you’re a fan of the band, then you’ll obviously love it. If you’re new to the band but have the slightest interest in hybrid rock, the band is easy to get into, especially given the band’s passionate live performances. I’d suggest Youtube-ing the band before you make a judgment on whether or not you want to see this film (if/when it’s available). But the film completely hinges on it. So if you’re not on board with the music you’re hearing, then it’s best that casual audiences stand aside. As far as the concert footage goes, it’s great. I haven’t seen an awful lot of concert DVDs or films, but this is by far in the higher rankings of what I’ve seen. The footage is pretty standard and isn’t really anything out of the ordinary (besides a few choice shots and angles from Spike Jonze). I would say that the film accurately portrayed the experience of the concert, but we only see about a quarter of the four hour event. The concert is full of emotion, no doubt, but I’m sure it was more grand and epic than the film ultimately made it out to be. All of the editing and filmic shortcomings aside, the band can play. I mean, they can play really well. The volume was high and the screen was big. If the only problem with this part is that it was too short, I’d say that’s a pretty good problem. Good films (documentaries, especially) capture a moment of time and immortalize it. Credit directors Will Lovelace and Dylan Southern. By the way, awesome thank you music using the theme for Twin Peaks. I nearly cried……. :P


Documentary/Interview- I’m a little biased here because I love Chuck Klosterman. If you asked me to pick one writer that has influenced me, it’s him. Seriously, this guy is awesome. Although Real-life Klosterman and Writing Klosterman are different, I still cherish hearing him. The guy can interview like crazy and write even better. So I was happy to learn that he was going to be interviewing James Murphy throughout the movie. But like the concert portion of the film, I knew that something was missing. Chuck Klosterman asked about 7 questions during the film. While they were good questions that garnered interesting responses, there wasn’t enough there to seem like a full interview had taken place. Also, there is no denying that a guy like James Murphy deserves to get the majority of the film dedicated to him, but it may have been cool to get a take on the ending of events from some of the other band members. They’re there and you get little bits and pieces from them, but it was never in an interview setting. The non-interview parts of the documentary segments were full of character and, despite there not being a large story told, were appreciated.


When it comes to reviewing a film, I immediately have to force myself to find something wrong with what I just watched because I can sometimes get caught up in how great the experience was, perfect or not. With this film, it was pretty hard. I highly recommend this film to fans of the band. I slightly recommend this to potential fans. I don’t really recommend this to people I don’t see as potential fans. THE FILM IS GREAT. It just feels like there are two films about this story that I want to see: the entire concert film and a more in-depth documentary. It’s hard to imagine the two seperately, so hopefully there can be a big Special Edition Blu-ray release or something that compiles all of the extra footage and interviews. There is only so much good that you can pack into a feature-length film, and they did the best they could. 8/10

Later!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Our Man in Utah/Insiders React/First Stabs/Official Congrats

Good Morning...here's some film stuff...

OUR MAN IN UTAH

Cinema Bebop's Gant Lee is on the ground at The Sundance Film Festival in Park City, UT (and vicinity).  Here's his first post:

Day 1

I’ve made it to Park City and it is beautiful here! The snow is on the ground, people everywhere, and buzz buzz buzz.

The Surrogate and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the talk of the town. Both have been picked up for distribution already (the former for approximately $6 million) and have been the most highly recommended to me. Of course, all showings are sold out and the chances of me getting into either one of those films on my pass are slim. I’d have to be in the waitlist for a couple of hours. Even then… I dunno.

I flew in on Tuesday night and decided to catch one of the midnight screenings. I chose Wrong by Quentin Dupieux. The Frenchman was actually there to introduce his film and was very bashful. He warned us that his tale about a man who has lost his dog was slow, but I’ve seen slower films. Unfortunately, 7 people couldn’t stand it and left during the middle of the film. I can’t get mad at someone for leaving during a film they don’t like had it been at a multiplex. But this is Sundance, and the director was there. I thought it was completely rude for them to leave while the director sat at the back and watched them actively reject the film. Anyway, I don’t feel like full on reviewing the film considering I may have watched it with a tired eye after my long day of traveling. The film got a bunch of laughs from the audience, but not as much from me. There were some truly funny things in the film (like a meditation on the memories of dog poop), but I can’t say that I recommend this film to anyone. The humor is pointless and the story barely exists. I’m hesitant to embrace it positively; it’s somewhere in between average and good. It may get picked up by Magnet like Dupieux’s previous film Rubber (a film about a tire with the ability to kill people). 6/10

This morning, I treated myself to a documentary called Indie Game: The Movie. In a world dominated by Call of Duty and Madden, it’s encouraging to see independent developers making video games. These games are born out of love for gaming, not a love for money. Like many artists, these developers have a passion for their medium and sacrifice a lot to achieve their goals, something that the documentary captures very well. We follow the journey of two games in development dealing with the struggles of working independently. There are tears and a lot of laughs. While it was encouraging to see these ordinary, hard-working guys risk and succeed, we didn’t get a portrait of what the story is for most independent developers, to risk and fail. I understand that it would have made the film a little less happy, but I felt like we didn’t get the whole story on the world of independent game development. Nevertheless, it was fun learning the stories behind the games Super Meat Boy and Braid, two games I’m a little more proud to own now. 7.5/10

My mom joined me for a screening for Rodrigo Cortés’ newest effort, Red Lights. I know that it got picked up early on at the festival, so I wanted to see what Millennium Entertainment saw in it. My only explanation has to be star-power… What started off promising quickly turned to, well, crap… I’m always critical of a film that has one person filling the roles of director, writer, producer, and editor. The film is (virtually) in his hands and if it’s crap, it’s all his fault. But with this film, I had more of a diverse opinion of Cortés. His writing ruined this film. Cillian Murphy and Sigourney Weaver are a team out to disprove the existence of paranormal forces and activities. But, the return of a famous mentalist played by Robert De Niro spells trouble for the duo. My mother and I were happy to see a film approach this material from a skeptical point of view, a rarity among movies concerning the paranormal. But halfway through, the film took a bad turn and ruined a potentially good story.

From a directorial standpoint, Cortés did well technically. The editing was good. The lighting was good. The pacing was good when we cared about the story. All in all, Cortés showed some potential as a director, but the script turns this good movie into a less than average one. 4.5/10

In about 30 minutes or so, I’m heading to a midnight screening of SHUT UP AND PLAY THE HITS.

See you tomorrow!

Check his blog at:  http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/

Rope of Silicon was up with a post last night outlining the hubub of Sundance to date.  Take a look:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/2012-sundance-film-festival-acquisitions-buzzed-titles/

Personally, if I get a chance to lobby any of the Telluride programmers; I may urge them to try to get "The Surrogate" much as they did "An Education" a few years back.

INSIDERS REACT

From my extensive (OK about half a dozen) contacts in the film biz, here's some reaction to the Oscar nominations announced 48 hours ago:

Almost universal amazement that "Extremely Loud" got a Best Picture nomination.  My buds were using words like "obnoxious" and "lame".  But, you know, somewhere around 250 or so voters must have thought it was the year's best film.  I saw one blogger opine that its inclusion confirmed the power of producer Scott Rudin or the connections of Stephen Daldry.

A good deal of dismay about having only two songs nominated...and neither of them were particulrly songs that anyone thought would.

Also some expressions of dismay about the animated films nominated save for "Rango".

And, as you might expect, there is a significant corner of dismay concerning no nomination for Fincher as director or "dragon Tattoo" for BP, at least among the people I know in side the film industry.

More reaction in my next post...

FIRST STABS

Meanwhile, The Gurus of Gold over at Movie City News have there first prediction of Oscar winners for the new crop...Look at it here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-1st-ranking-of-oscar-nominees-in-all-categories-pt-1-of-2/

They're seeing a pretty good race for Director and Actress and a semi-close race in Adapted Screenplay.  The other five (of the Big 8) categories seem to have prohibitive favorites at this point.

OFFICIAL CONGRATS

The Telluride Film Festival web site's official congratulatory post to Oscar nominees from TFF#38:

http://telluridefilmfestival.org/news/2012-01?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+telluridefilmfestival%2Fnews+%28Telluride+Film+Festival+News%29#item-54

OSCAR JOINING THE 21ST CENTURY?

Word that The Academy is headed to the use of online voting in 2013.  Here's the story from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/academy-electronic-voting-oscars-284893

More tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Insiders and Sundance

Coming tomorrow...reaction from my insider sources to yesterday's Oscar nominations.

Also, our man at Sundance is on the ground in Utah.  Awaiting his dispatches.  Hot Sundnace news is that Fox Searchlight has picked up buzzy titles "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "The Surrogate".  Reprotedly FS wants to position "Surrogate" for awards consideration at the end of this year.

More tomorrow.

Folow me on Twitter @Gort2

OSCAR TIME

Here is the complete list of nominated films from this morning's Academy announcement:

Best picture


“War Horse”

“The Artist”

“Midnight in Paris”

“Moneyball”

“The Descendants”

“The Tree of Life”

“The Help”

“Hugo”

“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Best supporting actress:

Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”

Jessica Chastain, “The Help”

Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”

Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”

Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

Best supporting actor

Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”

Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”

Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

Nick Nolte, “Warrior”

Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Best actress

Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”

Viola Davis, “The Help”

Rooney Mara, “Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”

Best actor

Demian Bachir, “A Better Life”

George Clooney, “The Descendants”

Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”

Gary Oldman, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Best director

Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”

Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Terrence Malick, “Tree of Life”

Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

Best original screenplay

“The Artist”

“Bridesmaids”

“Margin Call”

“Midnight in Paris”

“A Separation”

Best adapted screenplay

“The Descendants”

“Hugo”

“The Ides of March”

“Moneyball”

“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Best foreign language film

“Bullhead”

“Footnote”

“In Darkness”

“Monsieur Lazhar”

“A Separation”

Best animated feature

“A Cat in Paris”

“Chico & Rita”

“Kung Fu Panda 2”

“Puss in Boots”

“Rango”

Best animated short film

“Dimanche/Sunday”

“The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore”

“La Luna”

“A Morning Stroll”

“Wild Life”

Best live action short film

“Pentecost”

“Raju”

“The Shore”

“Time Freak”

“Tuba Atlantic”

Best art direction

“The Artist”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

“Hugo”

“Midnight in Paris”

“War Horse”

Best cinematography

“The Artist”

“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

“Hugo”

“The Tree of Life”

“War Horse”

Best costumes

“Anonymous”

“The Artist”

“Hugo”

“Jane Eyre”

“W.E.”

Best documentary feature

“Hell and Back Again”

“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Libration Front”

“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”

“Pina”

“Undefeated”

Documentary short subject

“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement”

“God is the Bigger Elvis”

“Incident in New Baghdad”

“Saving Face”

“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom”

Film editing

“The Artist”

“The Descendants”

“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

“Hugo”

“Moneyball”

Make-up

“Albert Nobbs”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

“The Iron Lady”

Original score

“The Adventures of TinTin”

“The Artist”

“Hugo”

“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy:

“War Horse”

Original song

“Man or Muppet”

“Real in Rio”

Sound editing

“Drive”

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

“Hugo”

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

“War Horse”

Visual effects

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

“Hugo”

“Real Steel”

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

Sound Mixing:

Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Transformers

War Horse

AND HERE IS MY 2 CENTS AS OF NOON TODAY:
Comment: A quick rundown shows 25 Telluride-centric nominations but I haven’t looked at the “short” categories yet (except to note the nomination of La Luna”)




The FAC metric goes 71 of 104 (about 68%)…so there ARE some surprises…some gratifying, some mystifying… by category:



BEST PICTURE: What was more surprising? That there were 9 films nominated, that Extremely Loud was one of them, that War Horse managed to stay on the list, that Dragon Tattoo didn’t make it? That Tree of Life DID? The FAC was 7 of 9 here. I feel pretty smart about Tree of Life making the cut.



BEST DIRECTOR: The FAC metric goes 4 of 5 here. I correctly assert Malick for Spielberg.



BEST ACTRESS: FAC goes 4 of 5. Mara in and Tilda Swinton out…not really a huge surprise.



BEST ACTOR: FAC 3 of 5…NO FASSBENDER!!! There IS NO JUSTICE!!! Fassbender’s demise as well as DiCaprio’s decline allow Oldman and Bichir in the game.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: FAC goes 4 of 5. Misses on Woodley. But glad to see the McTeer nomination.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: FAC is 4 of 5. The stunner was the exclusion of Albert Brooks who had been widely regarded as the only other lock in the category in addition to Plummer. Nope. Happy for Max Von Sydow.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: FAC goes 3 of 5. Missed Tinker Tailor (had it as a possible)…and Ides of March. Not all that surprised that War Horse wasn’t here. I am kind of surprised that The Help was left off.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: FAC 3 of 5. Misses Margin Call and A Separation..BUT SO PLEASED THAT FARHADI GETS A NOMINATION! Occupy!!!



BEST FOREIGN: FAC goes 4 of 5. Missed on Bullhead instead of PIna. Again, very pleased for A Separation



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: FAC goes 3 of 5. Missed BIG TIME on Chico and Rita and A Cat in Paris…what???



BEST ART DIRECTION: FAC goes 4 of 5. Missed Midnight in Paris.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: FAC goes 5 of 5. THE ONLY CATEGORY THE FAC WENT 100%...Makes me think I waste too much time trying to figure this out.



BEST COSTUMES: FAC goes 3 of 5 but both Anonymous and W.E.


BEST DOCUMENTARY: FAC is awful 2 of 5. Got Paradise Lost and Pina.



BEST FILM EDITING: FAC goes 4 of 5. Missed The Descendants…and here’s a note…This nomination probably keeps The Descendants in the Best Pic conversation. As we have said a number of occasions, an editing nomination almost seems to be a prerequisite to winning Best Pic. Kudos to the Fox Searchlight folks.



BEST MAKEUP: FAC is 2 of 3…missed Potter (which I listed as a possible).



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: FAC was 3 of 5. Had Tintin as a possible.



BEST SONG: Only two nominations here…and I missed them both. Although, I did have Man or Muppet listed as a possible.



SOUND EDITING: 3 of 5



SOUND MIXING: 2 of 5



VISUAL EFFECTS: 4 of 5



In the “random facts to assuage my feelings about how many I missed” dept. I had 16 actual nominees listed as “possibilities”.



JUBILATION: For “A Separation’s” screenplay nod and gratified that Tree of Life and Malick were nominated.



TRAVESTY: No nomination for Michael Fassbender.



#OCCUPY success: McTeer, Farhadi (Separation).



More later, talk amongst yourselves…

THE DAY BEFORE AND HERE ARE THE PREDICTIONS! Plus some other folks and news.

In 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees in 24 categories and all the speculation and thrashing about that we've been doing for the last 5 months gets focused for the 4 and 1/2 week run to Oscar night on Feb. 26.

Here's what The Film Awards Clearinghouse metric says will happen tomorrow morning (and here and there a comment or two from yours truly).  Metrics data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, Thompson on Hollywood, Rope of Silicon, Awards Circuit, Entertainment Weekly, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience and Hollywood Elsewhere.

As far as The Best short Documentary, Live action and Animation…not even going to try.  I do hope for nominations for La Luna and Luminaris.

SOUND MIXING: War Horse, Transformers, Tintin, Super 8, Apes.  Also with a good shot: Hugo.

SOUND EDITING: War Horse, Apes, Tintin, Transformers, Hugo.  Maybe Super 8 or Rango.

VISUAL EFFECTS: Apes, Potter, Hugo, Tree of Life, Hugo, Transformers. Also a decent shot for Capt. America, X Men, Super 8, Pirates 4 or Mission Impossible.

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud.  Also in play: Tintin, Moneyball and The Help.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Help, Albert Nobbs, The Muppets (Life is a Happy Song), The Muppets (Pictures in My Head), Capt. America.  Also with a decent shot: Gnomeo and Juliet, W.E., Machine Gun Preacher and The Muppets (Man or Muppet).

MAKEUP: The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, The Artist.  Also: Gainesborg, Potter, Hugo

COSTUME: Hugo, The Artist, Jane Eyre, Marilyn, The Help.  Also: Anonymous and W.E.

ART DIRECTION: Hugo, Artist, Potter, Tinker, War Horse.  Maybe: Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, The Help, Tree of Life.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life, Hugo, War Horse, Artist, Dragon Tattoo.  Maybe: Drive, Potter, Tinker.

FILM EDITING: Artist, War Horse, Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball.  Maybe: Drive, Descendants, Tree of Life

ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango, Puss in Boots, Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2.  Possibles: Cars 2, Rio.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Buck, We Were Here, Pina.  Also possible: If a Tree Falls, Bill Cunningham.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation, In Darkness, Footnote, Pina, Monsieur Lazhar. Any others…Bullhead, Superclassico, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the Rainbow.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win.  Possibles: Young Adult, A Separation, Tree of Life

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Descendants, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help, War Horse.  [Note: I’ll bet War Horse is even in trouble in this category].  Others that could sneak in: Dragon Tattoo, Tinker, Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer/Beginners, Albert Brooks/Drive, Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill/Moneyball and Nick Nolte/Warrior.  Could be: Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud, Patton Oswalt/Young Adult and there appears to be a late surge for Ben Kingsley in Hugo.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both from The Help, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids and Shailene Woodley/Descendants. [Note: I actually think that this category is pretty tight.  I also really have a difficult time believing the Academy will actually nominate McCarthy]  Others; Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus and Carey Mulligan/Shame.

ACTOR: George Clooney/Descendants, Jean Dujardin/Artist, Brad Pitt/Moneyball, Michael Fassbender/Shame, Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar. [Note: I flat out think that DiCaprio has faded completely and that opens the door for… Gary Oldman/Tinker or maybe Michael Shannon/Take Shelter or Demian Bichir/A Better Life]

ACTRESS: Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/Marilyn, Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin, Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs.  Could sneak in: Rooney Mara/Dragon Tattoo or Charlize Theron/Young Adult.

DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius/Artist, Alexander Payne/Descendants, Martin Scorsese/Hugo, Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris, Steven Spielberg/War Horse.  Again, I think the bloom is off the rose for Spielberg and this fifth spot will go either to David Fincher/Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick/Tree of Life.

PICTURE: So much depends on whether there are 5 or 6 or 7 or 8…I’m going with seven and the metric says: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and War Horse.  And I will flaunt the metric and say War Horse does NOT get in and either Dragon Tattoo or Tree of Life does.  


I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning.  Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.  

Now bring on tomorrow morning’s announcement so we can start parsing the results and complaining!  I've got experts and industry insiders who tell me that they'll share their reactions and insights into tomorrow's announcement.  Lined up: a screenwriter, a director, a producer, an editor, a PR guy and a couple of film bloggers


OTHERS LAST SHOTS:


Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/

Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1

Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD

The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night.  Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/

SUNDANCE UNDER WAY

And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit.  Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Sunday Extra to The FAC

Good Morning...down to under 48 hours until Oscar nominations are announced by The Academy.


CEASE THAT CORONATION!

This morning I have two pieces that suggest that there is still a reasonable level of suspense about what will ultimately win the Oscar next month (Feb. 26) for Best Picture.

First from The Playlist's Oli Lyttleton: 5 Reasons The Artist might not win best picture (in fairness, he strains to get to 5):
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-amazing-race-its-not-over-yet-five-reasons-the-artist-might-not-win-best-picture

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily a rumination on the possibility that The Descendants could pull off the upset:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/the-descendants-poised-to-upset-in-best-picture/

MY TOP TEN FOR 2011

Well, after much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth, here is my Top Ten list for the films that I saw in 2012 (somewhere north of 50...not "critic" type numbers...but a lot of films)...But admittedly, I haven't seen everything.  Haven't caught War Horse or Extremely Loud yet.  Nor critical darlings like Melancholia, Take Shelter or Martha Marcy Mae Marlene.  Someday, I'll get 'em in.

#10 HUGO (dir. by Martin Scorsese)... Scorsese steps into a completely different filmic milieu and succeeds very well.  It's a beautiful film to look at.  The 3D isn't a bother (as it so often is in most 3D films) and sounds one of the biggest themes from serious films this year...the nostalgic reverence for the history of film and its place in our lives.  (my runner -up #11 picture...Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).
Hugo's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0970179/

#9 ALBERT NOBBS (dir. by Rodrigo Garcia)  Glenn Close's passion project that took decades to get made was largely dismissed by most critics, but I contend that her performance as a woman masquerading as a mild mannered MAN and Janet McTeer's supporting performance are enough to put it on my list.  I think that a number of critics just didn't get how difficult it is to do what Close does in this film.  Probably headed to 3-4 Oscar nominations.
Albert Nobbs' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/
Check out my actually published Albert Nobbs review from Telluirde for The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

#8 RANGO (dir. Gore Verbinski)  I'm also a bit surprised that this hasn't gotten more critical love at the end of the year.  It also hasn't benefited from what has been a yearly "Will The Academy nominate an animated film for Best Picture?" push.  This despite the fact that it is a clear front runner to win the Oscar for Animated Feature.  Nonetheless, it's funny, quirky, and inventive.
Rango's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1192628/

#7 BEGINNERS (dir. Mike Mills)  Christopher Plummer is headed to an Oscar nomination (and probable win) as Supporting Actor as a widower who finally comes out in his 70's and Ewan MacGregor plays the son dealing with the new circumstances.  It's a beautiful, touching funny and very human film from Mills.  It would be nice to see him get an Original Screenplay nomination as well and it could happen; it's not very likely, though.
Beginners' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1532503/

#6 MONEYBALL (dir. Bennett Miller)  A top flight job from all involved.  Steve Zallian and Aaron Sorkin's adaptation is brilliantly done.  Miller directs with confidence (I am fast getting to the point where I'll go see a film just because he's the director) and Brad Pitt is more than fine as Billy Beane.  And the surprise is how good Jonah Hill is.  Probable Oscar nods to Zallian, Sorkin, Pitt and Hill.  Miller's odds for a directing nomination are fairly long, though.
Moneyball's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

#5  A SEPARATION (dir. Asghar Farhadi)  A miracle of a film from Iran.  I contend that this is the best written film of any type this year.  Almost certain to be a Best Foreign Language Film nominee (and the likely winner), I've been advocating n Original Screenplay nomination for months...not likely, but it's also not impossible.  And here's the thing...it's Iranian...I saw it with subtitles and it still translated to great writing...do you have any idea how difficult that is?  Steady direction and great committed performances also.  Talk about your films that transcend boundaries...
A Separation's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1832382/

#4 THE DESCENDANTS (dir. Alexander Payne)  A nice return from Mr. Payne who had been away from directing for 7 years.  George Clooney stars as a man with family issues.  He's probably going to win his second Oscar for this and perhaps he should, it's one of his best turns on screen.  Good support up and down the cast as well with relative newcomer Shailene Woodley a very possible nominee for Supporting Actress.  This will probably net 4-7 nominations Tuesday morning.  Check my Playlist review from Telluride for further details here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander_payne_george_clooney_riff_on_family_love_loss_death_and_the_choic#
The Descendants IMDb page is here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1033575/

#3 THE TREE OF LIFE (dir.Terrence Malick)  No one tried anything bigger, bolder and more adventurous this year than Terrence Malick.  So many people have said, "what's it about?"...best answer  "Life" sort as the title implies.  Malick juxtaposes macro and micro versions of "life" with each illuminating the other.  Brad Pitt is very good as a domineering 50's era father.  it also helps that the film is incredibly beautifully shot and that Malick (clearly drawing from his own experiences as a young boy in Texas and Oklahoma) gets the look and tone of the place and time of the micro story just right.  This film and my #1 are the two films that I saw this year that kept returning to me mind to turn over again and again.
The Tree of Life's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/

#2 THE ARTIST (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)  I was intrigued from the moment I heard the premise and started to hear the reactions and descriptions out of Cannes.  Firstly, how bold do you have to be to pitch a black and white silent film in the 2000's???  Pretty bold.  And then the execution!  And it works so so well.  Hazanavicius' vision is beautifully realized especially from Jean Dujardin in the lead.  To my mind, 75 years removed from the days when this was the ONLY way films were done, this was like re-inventing the form from scratch.  Remarkably well done.  The Artist will likely be in double digit nominations (and it may be the only film to get there this year, though Hugo has a real chance as well) on Tuesday morning and deservedly so.
The Artist's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1655442/

#1 SHAME (dir. Steve McQueen).  Yeah, I know.  It's NC-17.  And a lot of people do NOT like it, love it, care for it.  Many actively hate it.  It was certainly not universally embraced at Telluride.  But, I'm telling you, this film stuck with me all fall.  Shattering, searing, unflinching.  And the performances from Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan are phenomenal.  Fassy will probably get the only nomination here and he'd be winning the Best Actor Oscar if I had a ballot.  Mulligan would also be at the top of my Supporting Actress ballot, but she appears to have only a marginal chance of being one of the five nominees on Tuesday.  I'd also include McQueen and Abi Morgan for screenplay.  Perhaps McQueen for direction and likely cinematography as well.
Shame's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1723811/

What are your Ten Best of 2011??

Coming tomorrow...Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Award Clearinghouse predicts the Oscar nominations!

Follow me on Twitter  @Gort2

Saturday Extra to The FAC

We're less than 72 hours away from Oscar nomination morning.  Very exciting.  In this morning's brief post I have a look at a couple of Oscar prognosticators that have not been included in The FAC group, just we can throw a little something new and maybe some spice into the mix.  And also a piece from Steve Pond at The Wrap suggesting that the conventional wisdom that 7 or 8 films would make it into the Best Picture race come Tuesday morning may not be the case.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM NEW PLACES

First a link to Mark Harris/Grantland:
http://www.grantland.com/contributor/_/name/mark-harris

And also the final Oscar predictions from our frequently cited friends at The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-amazing-race-at-long-last-our-final-oscar-nomination-predictions

HOLD ON FOLKS....

Most Oscar handicappers have been pretty confident since the Academy's announcement of new voting/counting procedures that in this first year where there could be 5 to 10 nominees that there would likely be 7 or 8.  Now The Wrap's  Steve Pond says, "Not so fast, muchacho!"  Pond, who may this stuff better than the Academy's accounting firm says that it might not come out that way at all.  Maybe ONLY 6 nominees...Check his post at The Wrap here:
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/7-or-8-best-picture-nominees-maybe-not-34559?page=0,1

THE NEXT THREE DAYS

Here's my blog plan for the next three days leading up to and past the Oscar announcements on Tuesday morning.

Tomorrow (Sunday)...A brief post with a pair of articles that challenge the conventional wisdom that The Artist has the Best Picture race sown up...really.

Also, my top ten films of 2011...I know you're breathless in anticipation.

Monday:  Oscar predictions using the 10 predictors that I have been collating since Telluride ended in September.

Tuesday (evening): All the nominations and parsing them...surprises of inclusion and exclusion, joy and rage!  I'll also have the Telluride breakdown of this year's nominees

Then in Thursday's regular post I hope to have reaction from the handful of Academy members and industry insiders I know. It should be fun!

Follow me @Gort2

Brief Extra to MTFB/FAC

The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with a complete final rundown of Oscar nominee probabilities 24 hours before their announcement on Tuesday morning (Jan. 24).

Here are three quick hits to Telluride #38 related Oscar potentials:

A SEPARATION

Anne Thompson interviews writer/director Asghar Farhadi:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/farhadi-talks-iranian-oscar-entry-a-separation-divorce-drama-questions-irans-future#

SHAME

NPR talks to Michael Fassbender:
http://www.npr.org/2012/01/18/145390854/michael-fassbender-portraying-an-addicts-shame

INTO THE ABYSS

The Playlist talks to Werner Herzog:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/werner-herzogs-doc-into-the-abyss-spawns-discovery-series-on-death-row

I'll brief posts also on Saturday and Sunday leading up to Monday's regular bi-weekly post and Oscar nomination predictions.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Closing in on Oscar

CLOSING IN ON OSCAR

We're down to the point where we could start counting down to next Tuesday's nomination announcement in hours rather than days.  The last 24 hours have seen a couple of key developments.  First, the announcement from The Academy yesterday of the nine foreign films still left to compete for the five nominations in that category and ultimately the Oscar.  Any number of the websites listed in the right hand column carried stories about that announcement.  I have linked to the Awards Daily story here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/9-foreign-language-films-vie-for-oscar/

Four Telluride films have made the "semi-finals" A Separation, Pina, In Darkness and Footnote.  Not making the list, in something of a surprise, Le Havre.  So the dream of an all Telluride list of five films has ended, though the four that are left are all pretty legitimate players to be announced on Tuesday morning.  As a matter of fact, my final prediction on Monday will be the four T-ride films plus Canada's Monsieur Lazhar.

The other developing story is a slight rumbling/backlash against The Artist because, the thinking goes, general audiences may not be as enamored of the uniqueness of a black and white silent film in 2012.  we'll see pretty soon if the theory has any legs.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The latest Oscar prognostications from three really good sources:

Movie City News' latest Gurus of Gold chart:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-post-globespre-oscar-nominations/

Dave Karger's "Final" pre-Oscar nomination predictions:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/17/oscar-predictions-dave-karger/

And the latest update from The Hollywood Reporter's resident Oscar guru Scott Feinberg:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

Of course, The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with my look at where the nominations will go and where we might see some surprises  (War Horse fading, Tattoo on the rise...)


FASSBENDER ON PARADE

Michael Fassbender has been and continues to be red hot and I am modestly confident that he will hear his name next Tuesday morning when the Best Actor nominees are announced.  He's featured this week on the cover of The Hollywood Reporter and THR has a couple of online articles in conjunction with that.  You can find those here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-fassbender-shirtless-full-frontal-nudity-shame-x-men-george-clooney-282871

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/THR-cover-michael-fassbender-shame-nudity-dangerous-method-282859


AND FINALLY

Two fun and interesting spec pieces about some of the far fetched things that could (but probably won't) happen on Tuesday morning.

From Kris Tapley of Incontention:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/off-the-carpet-as-the-music-stops-fringe-hopefuls-cross-their-fingers

And also from Steve Pond at The Wrap
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362

I'll have some other tidbits for you tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

BAFTA/Feinberg Forecast Update/Oscar Effects Categories

BRITS NOMINATE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees early Monday morning (Central Daylight Time).  Here they are with Telluride highlighted as usual (thanks to Dave Karger and entertainment Weekly).

Best Film
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Film Not in the English Language
Incendies (tff 37)
Pina
Potiche
A Separation
The Skin I Live In

Outstanding British Film
My Week with Marilyn
Senna
Shame
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
We Need to Talk About Kevin

Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Lynne Ramsay, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Leading Actor
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame

Leading Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Viola Davis, The Help

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March

Supporting Actress 
Carey Mulligan, Drive
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Judi Dench, My Week with Marilyn
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Guard
The Iron Lady
Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Editing
The Artist
Drive
Hugo
Senna
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy

Production Design
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Make Up & Hair
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady
My Week with Marilyn

Costume Design
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Special Visual Effects
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse

Documentary
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna

Sound
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Original Music
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Animated Film
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Arthur Christmas
Rango

Outstanding British Debut by a Director or Producer
Joe Cornish, Attack the Block
Will Sharpe, Tom Kingsley, Sarah Brocklehurst, Black Pond
Ralph Fiennes, Coriolanus
Richard Ayouade, Submarine
Paddy Considine & Diarmid Scrimshaw, Tyrannosaur

Comment:  BAFTA ends up citing Telluride-centric films 24 times:

The Artist- 12

The Descendants- 3

We Need to Talk About Kevin- 3

Shame- 2

George Harrison, Incendies, Pina and A Separation – 1 each

BAFTA is interesting from Oscar’s perspective because there is a modestly significant overlap of membership between it and The Academy.

FEINBERG’S NEW FORECAST

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter has his latest assessment of Oscar prospects up and it reflects his view in a post Golden Globes environment.  Biggest change…he has Ben Kingsley solidly in the Best Supporting Actor category for Hugo.  Check it here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

THE FAC AND SOUND AND VISUAL EFFECTS

Three very technical categories and where they stand according to a compilation of data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, Film Experience,

Awards Circuit, and Rope of Silicon…

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

2) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

3) Hugo

4) The Tree of Life

5) Transformers

Also in play:

6) Pirates 4

7) Captain America

8) X-Men First Class

9) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

10) Super 8

Others: Real Steal, Thor, Cowboys and Aliens

SOUND EDITING

1) War Horse

2) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

3) Tintin

4) Transformers

5) Hugo

Also in play:

6) Super 8

7) Rango

8) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

9)  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

10) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

SOUND MIXING

1) War Horse

2) Transformers

3) Tintin

4) Super 8

5) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Also in play:

6) Hugo

7) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

8) Rango

9) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

10) Captain America 

Check back tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2