New Oscar Categories Get The FAC Treatment / Like I Said on Monday...Haneke / Oscar Matters: The Latest Fienberg Forecast

Good Thursday film fans...

Oscar nomination morning is a minuscule two weeks away...the anticipation mounts!

NEW OSCAR CATEGORIES GET THE FAC TREATMENT

As we get closer to the announcement of Oscar nominations, The FAC takes its first look at the animated feature race and a number of technical categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


LIKE I SAID ON MONDAY...HANEKE

Michael Haneke and Isabelle Huppert at Cannes for "Amour" in 2012 (photo from Sipa Press/Rex Shutterstock and The Guardian)

Last Monday's post included a segment entitled "Ten Films that Could Be Telluride Bound".  Included on that list was one film without a title and that was the percolating Michael Haneke project.  Now, almost like magic, within the last couple of days, comes details of the new film including a title: " Happy End".

Considering the timing, I would expect that the completed film would be a likely entrant for Cannes in 2017 and, consequently, TFF #44.  Here is coverage from The Guardian, Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/30/michael-haneke-to-reunite-with-isabelle-huppert-for-calais-set-drama

http://thefilmstage.com/news/michael-haneke-reveals-next-film-happy-end-starring-isabelle-huppert-and-jean-louis-trintignant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-haneke-reteams-with-amour-duo-isabelle-huppert-jean-louis-trintignant-for-refugee-film-happy-end-20151230



OSCAR MATTERS: LATEST FEINBERG FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has just updated his latest Oscar predictions.  The nominations announcement is now just two weeks away.  You can look at Scott's whole list here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-122915/

If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
 
And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


More to come on Monday...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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End of the Year Looks: Son of Saul / 45 Years / Suffragette / Beasts of No Nation / Spotlight / 10 Films That Could be Telluride Bound

Good Monday everyone...

As we come to the close of 2105. I have included a number of posts/articles about TFF #42 films that continue to make their mark and be a part of the end of the year awards conversations:

SON OF SAUL

http://www.thewrap.com/son-of-saul-director-talks-revisiting-holocaust-hell-for-new-take-on-genre-exclusive-video/

http://puls.ly/RWc8zg#http://moviemezzanine.com/laszlo-nemes-and-geza-rohrig-on-son-of-saul/


45 YEARS

http://www.wsj.com/articles/45-years-marriage-under-the-ice-1449764341


SUFFRAGETTE

http://www.thewrap.com/carey-mulligan-on-getting-suffragette-right-we-didnt-want-it-to-feel-like-a-costume-drama-exclusive-video/


BEASTS OF NO NATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Yk6VP2rBe0&feature=youtu.be&a


SPOTLIGHT

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-open-road-ceo-tom-ortenberg-shepherded-spotlight-to-oscar-frontrunner-20151223


TEN FILMS THAT COULD BE FUTURE TELLURIDE-BOUND

I am constantly scouring the interwebs for films that are in development or announced that might end up being Telluride choices.  The details that catch my interest can be varied but include a heavy emphasis on directors and distributors.  With that in mind, here are ten films culled over the last six months or so that could be a part of Telluride's  lineup over the next two or three years.  (Of course, NONE of these could end up there as well).   In no particular order:

1) "Werk Ohne Autor" from Florian Henckel Von Donnersmarck:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-lives-of-others-director-florian-henckel-von-donnersmarck-to-helm-drama-werk-ohne-autor-20151215

2) "The Salesman" from Asghar Farhadi:

http://thefilmstage.com/news/details-emerge-on-asghar-farhadis-iran-set-drama-the-salesman-as-first-cast-members-are-set/

3) "Distant Vision" from Francis Ford Coppola:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/francis-ford-coppola-explains-his-847610

http://thefilmstage.com/news/francis-ford-coppola-reveals-title-of-and-new-plans-for-next-feature/

4) "Wonderstruck" from Todd Haynes:

http://www.thewrap.com/julianne-moore-todd-haynes-wonderstruck-amazon-studios/

http://edit.hollywoodreporter.com/news/julianne-moore-reteam-todd-haynes-840629

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/julianne-moore-re-teams-with-todd-haynes-for-wonderstruck-20151116

http://thefilmstage.com/news/julianne-moore-reteams-with-todd-haynes-for-wonderstruck-watch-30-minute-carol-talk-with-cate-blanchett/

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/julianne-moore-todd-haynes-wonderstruck-1201641627/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/julianne-moore-reteams-with-todd-haynes-for-wonderstruck-20151116


5) "Sunset" from Laszlo Nemes:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/son-of-saul-director-laszlo-nemes-to-helm-pre-wwi-thriller-sunset-20151130


6) The next Michael Haneke/ "Happy End" project (since there will be no "Flashmob"):

http://thefilmstage.com/news/isabelle-huppert-to-reteam-with-michael-haneke/


7) "Porno" from Danny Boyle:

http://www.movienewsguide.com/danny-boyle-returns-trainspotting-sequel-porno-original-cast-returning/91614

8) "The Sisters Brothers" from Jacques Audiard:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/john-c-reilly-to-star-in-a-prophet-director-jacques-audiards-english-language-western-the-sisters-brothers-20150824

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/palme-dor-winner-jacques-audiard-817151


9) "Neruda" from Pablo Larrain:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-gael-garcia-bernal-in-pablo-larrains-noir-ish-cat-and-mouse-drama-neruda-20150724


10) "Comancheria" from David Mackenzie:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/starred-up-director-david-mackenzie-now-shooting-comancheria-with-chris-pine-ben-foster-and-jeff-bridges-20150804


That'll do for Monday...come back on Thursday for the final MTFB for the year!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Gurus of Gold and Others Updated Oscar Forecasts / Critical Take on 2015 Gets Deeper / Lots About "Spotlight"

Good Christmas Eve and Thursday morning...


GURUS OF GOLD AND OTHERS UPDATED OSCAR FORECASTS

Move City News has an updated chart this morning for six major categories.  TFF films lay out like this in their latest tally of Oscar experts:

Best Picture:

#1 "Spotlight"
#3 "Carol"
#8 "Room"
#12 "Steve Jobs"

Best Director

#2 Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
#4 Todd Haynes/"Carol"
#7 Lenny Abrahamson/"Room"


Best Actress:

#1 Brie Larson/"Room"
#3 Cate Blanchett/"Carol"
#5 Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
#6 Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette"

Best Actor:

#3 Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Johnny Depp/"Black Mass"


Best Supporting Actress:

#1 Rooney Mara/"Carol"
#3 Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Rachel McAdams/"Spotlight"

Best Supporting Actor:

#3 Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation"
#4 Michael Keaton/"Spotlight"
#5 Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight"
#7 Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
#8 Jacob Tremblay/"Room"


The Gurus indicate 14 Oscar nominations for Telluride films on these six categories with another seven possibles/trade-offs.

The complete Gurus can be found here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-you-better-vote-good-for-goodness-sake/

Meanwhile, The Five Star Flicks Blog has continued its project of gathering data from many Oscar prognostication sources and crunching those numbers for the Best Picture race in a different manner. Their cumulative chart has the following for BP:

#1 "Spotlight"
#4 "Room"
#6 "Carol"
#12 "Steve Jobs"
#16 "Beasts of No Nation"


That complete chart is here:

http://fivestarflicks.blogspot.com/2015/12/state-of-race-best-picture-as-of-122315.html


CRITICAL TAKE ON 2015

Metacritic continues to gather data from Critics' year end top ten lists (they're up over 160 lists so far) and here's where Telluride films rank (within their top twenty):

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#8 "Son of Saul" (tie)
#8 "Anomalisa" (tie)
#10 "45 Years"
#14 "Room"
#16 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)


That's an incredibly impressive seven films on the cumulative top twenty from TFF.

The complete Metacritic list is here:

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015


LOTS ON "SPOTLIGHT"

Somewhat tenaciously and against the odds, "Spotlight" has continued to seem like a quiet Oscar front runner for many weeks now.  As such, it continues to be spotlighted, if you'll pardon the expression, in a number of outlets in a number of ways.  Here is a sampling of some of then latest including discussions from its producer, director, actors and musical director:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-open-road-ceo-tom-ortenberg-shepherded-spotlight-to-oscar-frontrunner-20151223

http://thefilmstage.com/news/morricone-talks-the-hateful-eight-thomas-mccarthy-analyzes-spotlight-45-years-tangerine-talks-and-more/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-director-tom-mccarthy-talks-researching-disturbing-church-scandal-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-michael-keaton-talks-actors-journalists-and-their-egos/

http://www.thewrap.com/how-mark-ruffalo-learned-to-play-an-excitable-journalist-in-spotlight-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-rachel-mcadams-talks-learning-to-listen-like-a-journalist-exclusive-video/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/23/interview-howard-shore-talks-composing-spotlight/


That's it for Thursday.  For all those that celebrate Christmas...I hope your tomorrow is fantastic. MTFB will return Monday with more...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Newest Numbers for Supporting and Screenplays from The FAC / Foreign Language Short List / Criticwire Weighs In

Good Monday to Everyone...and Happy Holidays...

NEWEST NUMBERS FROM SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Here is the latest update foe the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories from The FAC.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (5)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (7)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (NR)
7) Jane Fonda/Youth (4)
8) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (6)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (NR)
10) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (NR)

Hot: McAdams, Mirren, Stewart and Vikander for "Ex Machina"
Not: Fonda, Banks, Allen, Walters and Chastain.

Comment: Another category that has been turned upside down over the past three weeks despite the pundits claims that precursors and critics groups don't move the Oscar needle... they sure have changed the experts perceptions.  Mirren is the perfect example as she has never been in the top ten of the FAC and suddenly appears at #6 in the latest number crunching.  That's NOT because the Oscar predictors have changed their minds about the quality of her performance.  It's because she's popped up over the last couple of weeks with a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nomination.

Meanwhile, Joan Allen (Room), Julie Walters (Brooklyn) and Jessica Chastain (The Martian) disappear from the top ten.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR


1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
2) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (8)
3) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (9)
4) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (NR)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)

6) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (2)
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (6)
8) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (1)
9) Christian Bale/The Big Short (NR)
10) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (4)

Hot: Rylance, Stallone, Elba, Shannon and Bale
Not: Keaton, Ruffalo, Hardy, Del Toro and Keitel

Comment: Another category that illustrates in stark terms how volatile the season is and how little confidence the experts have in their grasp of the season.  When you have ten people listed in the "Hot/Not" list above, that tells you every thing you need to know about the categories fluidity.  Fully four of the five men that are now listed as the top five (and your presumptive nominees) were NOT in the top five on our last FAC check of the category.

Open Roads' play to have the entire "Spotlight" cast as "Supporting" players may have hurt both Keaton and Ruffalo who had seemed likely to both get a nomination up until the last couple of weeks. Now, neither man may get in and, ironically, Rachel McAdams, who has been regarded as the biggest stretch to be nominated from the cast might now be the film's best shot at an acting nomination.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (2)
2) Steve Jobs (1)
3) The Martian (4)
4) Brooklyn (3)
5) The Big Short (8)

6) Carol (7)
7) Anomalisa (6)
8) The Revenant (5)
9) Trumbo (NR)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Trumbo, Creed
Not: The Revenant, The Danish Girl, 45 Years

Comment:  The resilience of "Jobs" here and in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories continues to impress me.  "Jobs" also sits at #11 on last Thursday's FAC Best Picture list.  I'm still thinking it could be a wild card Best Pic nominee...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (NR)

6) Joy (5)
7) Trainwreck (10)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Youth (6)
10) Sicario (7)

Hot: Ex Machina, Trainwreck, Compton
Not: Youth, Sicario, Love and Mercy and Son of Saul

Comment: My desire that "Son of Saul" get into the Best Picture conversation isn't helped as it drops out of the original screenplay top ten.


FOREIGN FILMS SHORT LIST

The Academy has winnowed all of the Best Foreign Language Film entrants down to nine films.  Two of those films played at TFF #42:  "Son of Saul" and "Viva" made the cut.  "Rams", which was thought to have a strong chance at being a semi-finalist.  It also played as a part of the TFF #42 lineup.

The complete list of films still alive for the Foreign Language Oscar:

"The Brand New Testament"/Belgium
""Embrace of the Serpent"/Colombia
"A War"/Denmark
"The Fencer"/Finland
"Mustang"/France
"Labyrinth of Lies"/Germany
"Son of Saul"/Hungary
"Viva"/Ireland
"Theeb"/Jordan

Coverage:


http://awardswatch.com/news/mustang-son-of-saul-the-fencer-make-foreign-language-film-oscar-shortlist/


CRITICWIRE WEIGHS IN

Criticwire/Indiewire published their collection of rankings of 200+ critics this week.  Telluride films ended up as follows on their list of the 50 best films of 2015:

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#7 "Anomalisa"
#9 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)
#10 "Son of Saul"
#14 "45 Years"
#15 "Room"
#21 "Taxi"
#30 "Steve Jobs"
#35 "Heart of a Dog"





Find complete coverage and analysis and other lists for direction and performances here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/critics-pick-the-best-films-and-performances-of-2015-in-indiewires-annual-poll-20151214



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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Updated FAC for Oscars Four Major Categories / American Film Institute's Top Ten Films for 2015 / The Latest Gurus of Gold

Welcome to Thursday...

As promised, here is your update of four major Oscar categories:

THE UPDATED FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE/MAJOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Many of the professionals listed below will often write that precursors like the Golden Globes and SAG nominations as well as critical top tens don't really move the needle as far as Oscar voters go. And yet...as you look at these categories that are updated from their last post from about three weeks ago...the number crunching of their thinking tells a different story.

"Mad Max: Fury Road" and "Trumbo's" Bryan Cranston have jumped into serious contention precisely because of the announcement of year end accolades from the various precursors.  "Joy" has dropped like a stone after spending the past several months comfortably regarded as a serious contender in a number of categories.

"The Martian" continues to be regarded well but I have serious concerns that the main categories will accommodate it and "Mad Max".

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.



BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) The Revenant (2)
4) Room (4)
5) Brooklyn (6)
6) Carol (10)
7) Mad Max: Fury Road (NR)
8) The Big Short (12)


9) Bridge of Spies (5)
10) Inside Out (9)
11) Steve Jobs (8)
12) The Hateful Eight (11)

Hot: Carol, Mad Max:Fury Road, The Big Short
Not: Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs, Joy

Comment:  "Fury Road" is red hot and "Joy" is dead as can be as it dropped completely off the chart.  Not one of these experts thinks it will get a Best Picture nomination.  It's fall from grace makes me a little dizzy.  "Spotlight" nailed a perfect score from these Oscarologists.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Ridley Scott/The Martian (3)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (2)
4) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road (7)
5) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)

6) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)
8) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (10)
9) John Crowley/Brooklyn (NR)
10) Adam McKay/The Big Short (NR)

Hot: Miller, Haynes, Tarantino, Crowley, McKay
Not: Spielberg, Abrahamson, Boyle, Russell

Comment: The upward trajectory for Haynes and Miller reveal that they are thought to be serious Best Picture contenders as well.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (5)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (NR)
7) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (6)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (NR)
10) Sarah Silverman/I Smile Back (NR)

Hot: Mara, Mirren, Silverman
Not: Lawrence, Danner, Smith, Blanchett (Truth)

Comment:  Nothing better illustrates the fall of "Joy" than Jennifer Lawrence's drop to the #5 spot and fighting to stay on as a likely nominee.  She's still way out front of Rooney Mara (whose presence here indicates a potential rejection of the decision to campaign her in the Supporting category) but the drop over the last three weeks has been precipitous.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (5)
5) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (NR)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (6)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston
Not: Depp, Caine, Hanks

Comment: Bryan Cranston's jump into contention has been stratospheric.  I still have serious reservations about Damon making the top five.

If these predictions are 100% accurate, then films/performers from Telluride will earn nine nominations in these four categories with an additional five possibilities.


I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay Oscar predictions in Monday's edition of MTFB/FAC.


AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTES'S TOP TEN FILMS

The AFI announced their list of the Ten Best films of 2015 yesterday and three Telluride Film Fest films made the grade: "Carol", "Room" and "Spotlight".  Other films making the AFI Top Ten included:

"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Inside Out"
"Mad Max:Fury Road"
"The Martian"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Straight Outta Compton"

Left out: "The Revenant", "Joy", "Creed", "Steve Jobs", "Black Mass" and "The Hateful Eight".

Last year the AFI list included 11 films:

"American Sniper"
"Birdman"
"Boyhood"
"Foxcatcher"
"The Imitation Game"
"Interstellar"
"Into the Woods"
"Nightcrawler"
"Selma"
"Unbroken"
"Whiplash"


I've included links to this coverage of the AFI announcement:

https://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/afi-awards-honorees-star-wars-mr-robot-1201662848/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/avi-top-ten-2015/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-lands-849517



THE LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News was up yesterday with an updated posting for the Gurus of Gold.  Their list of Best Picture cumulative predictions has TFF films as follows:

"Spotlight" #1
"Carol" #3
"Room" #8
"Steve Jobs" #11
"Beasts of No Nation" #17

The complete Gurus update is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-what-underdogs-are-still-barking/

Additionally, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily broke down the implications of the latest from the Gurus in this post yesterday:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/at-last-a-consensus-emerges-in-the-best-picture-race/#


That'll do for now.  I'll post anew on Monday...

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michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Thoughts on the Season...Oscar not Holiday / Late Breaking: Critics Choice Award Nominations and Online Film Critics / Feinberg's Latest Forecast / Interviews and Profiles / Reminders

If you didn't know...It's Monday...

THOUGHTS ON THE SEASON...OSCAR NOT HOLIDAY

My friend Sasha Stone of Awards Daily is fond of screen writer William Goldman's sage description of Hollywood: "Nobody knows anything".  It seems like that's an apt description of where we are as we come to the last few pages of the book that has been 2015 in terms of the awards season landscape.

I have been following Oscar with some seriousness since I started this blog seven years ago because I was interested to see how the films that played the Telluride Film Festival fared at Oscar time.  It's engaging and allows me to continue to have something to write about beyond the normal schtick that this space focuses on...namely "What's going to play at Telluride?"

So, as I look back at these last seven years and the way the Oscar seasons have played out, it seems to me that we have a truly anomalous year.  It seems like we should be a whole lot surer about a whole lot more about what's going on as we march toward Oscar and we just aren't.

"Nobody knows anything".  The Oscarologists are all over the place with the perceived rise and fall of a film's or an actor's awards prospects.  As an example, look at George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury Road", which hasn't been thought of as a serious Oscar Best Director/Best Picture contender has suddenly gathered a lot of momentum from its Golden Globes and critic's groups notices apparently at the expense of Ridley Scott's "The Martian".

Another factor...is category placement.  It seems to be a very obvious consideration in the campaigns for Rooney Mara for "Carol" and Alicia Vikander for both "The Danish Girl" and"Ex Machina".  It also seems to be potentially harming the cast members of Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight".  Keaton and Ruffalo seemed like that might be able to pull off the feat of both being nominated for Supporting Actor from the same film but the precursors up to this point are pointing to the greater likelihood that neither guy gets in.

So, as we move through this next week (with notable news from the Online Film Critics Society, the Broadcast Film Critics Association and The American Film Institute) maybe what we DO know IS that "Nobody knows anything" which is making for what is an unusual, dynamic and surprising 2015 Oscar season.

So, despite nobody knowing anything...here's a reminder of some awards season thoughts, many of which I have included in this space before.

1) I still think that "Spotlight" is your best chance to continue Telluride's streak of hosting the year's Best Picture Oscar winner.  That streak has held each year since 2010...and save for 2009's win for "The Hurt Locker", would actually date back to 2008.  I was beginning to think that "Room" was looking like a real possibility to replace "Spotlight" as the film with the best chance to continue the string but that possibility seemed to recede this past week.  The "Streak"...

2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"
2009: The Hurt Locker" (not at TFF)
2010: "The King's Speech"
2011: "The Artist"
2012: "Argo"
2013: "12 Years a Slave"
2014: "Birdman"

2) Up until this week, I was saying that the Best Picture winner was likely to be one of four films: "Spotlight", "Room", "The Martian" and "The Revenant".  Last week's precursor news seemed to take some wind out of the sails of everything but "Spotlight" and the beneficiaries seemed to be the aforementioned "Mad Max: Fury Road" and Todd Haynes' "Carol".

3) Don't count out "Steve Jobs" as a Best Picture nomination contender.  The film has all but disappeared on the charts of the professional Oscar pundits but I feel like the four Globe nominations may suggest that, despite its box office results, there could be more strength there than a lot of people think.

4) I've said it already, but I'll say it again..."Carol" will have more nominations on Oscar morning than any other film.  Conceivably: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, two Acting nominations-maybe one lead and one supporting or two leads-, Costumes, Production Design, Score, Hair/Makeup, Cinematography.  That's 10.  It could happen.

5) I'm still stumping for: "Son of Saul" to be nominated for Best Picture.  It's status as the front runner for Best Foreign Film feels like the only sure thing about Oscar here in the middle of December.

Also the MTFB/FAC campaigns of futility continue for Supporting Actor nominations for Jeff Daniels from "Steve Jobs" and Peter Sarsgaard from "Black Mass".

6) Since I started covering Telluride and its relation to Oscar season, the average TFF film cumulative Oscar nomination total is 27.  This year has felt like that average seemed to be good bet for this year's total.  I'm thinking the last week or so that the total might inch a little bit past the 27 but even then, we're talking 28-29 nominations all told.  I'm not feeling that this will be a 30+ nomination year...but, keep in mind...nobody knows anything.

LATE BREAKING: CRITICS' CHOICE AWARD NOMINATIONS AND ONLINE FILM CRITICS AWARDS

The Broadcast Film Critics Association has announced their nominees for Film and television achievement.  Telluride films are well represented with TFF #42 films nominated for 31 BFCA awards plus two additional nominations for TFF #41 films.

Here's the breakdown:

"Carol" (9): Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Production Design, Hair/Makeup, Cinematography, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (8): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Supporting Actress, Ensemble, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Score.

"Room" (4): Best Picture, Actress, Young Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs"(3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Black Mass (2): Best Actor, Hair/Makeup

Single nominations for:

"45 Years": Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation: Best Young Actor
"Anomalisa": Best Animated Film
"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film
"He Named Me Malala": Best Documentary

Additionally, from TFF #41, Michael Shannon was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for "99 Homes" and "The Look of Silence" was nominated for Best Documentary.

The complete list of all nominees is here:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/critics-choice-awards-nominations-2016-full-list-1201666326/

Meanwhile, the Online Film Critics Association  named Telluride films winners of six of their 13 awards.  “Mad Max: Fury Road” was named Best Picture.  They liked “Carol” a lot too.  See below:

The Online Film Critic’s awards for Telluride Film Festival films for 2015:

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender/”Steve Jobs”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/”Carol”

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/”Carol”

Best Documentary: “The Look of Silence” (TFF #41)

Best Original Screenplay: “Spotlight”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “Carol”

Top Ten Foreign Films includes “Rams”

 Analysis is here:

http://www.thewrap.com/online-film-critics-say-mad-max-fury-road-is-best/

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/online-film-critics-society-winners-mad-max-1201660197/

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has updated his latest view of the Oscar race in light of last week's SAG and Golden Globes news.

Take a look at those here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-121115/

LISTEN TO ANNE, ERIC AND SASHA

Check out the latest edition of ScreenTalk with Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood, Eric Kohn/Indiewire and their special guest Sasha Stone/Awards Daily as they talk about the latest developments in the Oscar race here:

https://soundcloud.com/eric-kohn

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES:

"STEVE JOBS" AND DANNY BOYLE:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/what-danny-boyle-learned-michael-847049


"BLACK MASS" AND SCOTT COOPER

http://maltinonmovies.wolfpop.com/audio/40162/special-guest-scott-cooper-black-mass


 "BEASTS OF NO NATION" AND CARY FUKUNAGA

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/exclusive-featurette-explores-the-uncompromising-vision-of-cary-fukunagas-beasts-of-no-nation-20151209


"ANOMALISA" AND CHARLIE KAUFMAN AND DUKE JOHNSON

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-34-minute-anomalisa-interview-with-charlie-kaufman-duke-johnson-plus-new-featurettes-20151211


"CAROL" AND CATE BLANCHETT AND ROONEY MARA

http://www.thewrap.com/cate-blanchett-rooney-mara-talk-challenges-of-depicting-closeted-lesbians-in-carol/



REMINDERS:

Check back later today as I'll do some coverage on the news from the Broadcast Film Critics.

And also look for a Film Awards Clearinghouse update for the four major categories (Picture, Director, Actress and Actor) on Thursday.

Also, take a look at the 2015 addition to the second page of this blog "Selected Telluride History".  I added an attenuated version of this year's tributes, guests and films over the weekend.


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Golden Globes Nominations Announced / SAG Nominations andTelluride /The Pre-Globes and SAG Gurus of Gold

, Good Thursday everyone...


GOLDEN GLOBES NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

Telluride Film Festival Golden Globe nominations:

“Spotlight”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director/Tom McCarthy, Best Screenplay

“Carol”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director Todd Haynes, Best Actress (Drama)/Cate Blanchett, Best Actress (Drama) Rooney Mara, Best Score

“Room”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Actress (Drama)/Brie Larson, Best Screenplay

“Steve Jobs”: Best Actor (Drama)/Michael Fassbender, Best Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress/Kate Winslet, Best Score

“Beasts of No Nation”: Best Supporting Actor/Idris Elba,

“99 Homes” (TFF #41): Best Supporting Actor/Michael Shannon

“Anomalisa”: Best Animated Film

"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film

Complete coverage here:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2016-nominees-winners-list-story

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2015/12/10/golden-globes-nominations-2016-complete-coverage/

 Big surprises included no acting nominations for any of the ensemble of "Spotlight" and the placement of Rooney Mara in the lead drama actress category.  Though that category placement is becoming less and less shocking.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS AND TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence yesterday and there were some surprises in the mix.  For Telluride fans it was a good morning as TFF films pulled down 12 of the 25 nominations.  Here's the breakdown from those nominations:

Telluride and The SAG nominations:

Best Actor: Johnny Depp/”Black Mass”, Michael Fassbender/”Steve Jobs”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/”Carol”, Brie Larson/”Room”

Best Supporting Actor: Jacob Tremblay/”Room”, Idris Elba/”Beasts of No Nation”, Michael Shannon/”99 Homes” (TFF #41)

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/”Carol”, Kate Winslet/”Steve Jobs”, Rachel McAdams/”Spotlight”

Best Ensemble: “Beasts of No Nation”, “Spotlight”,

Maybe the biggest surprises as far as Telluride went were the Jacob Tremblay nomination for "Room" and the Best Ensemble nomination for Cary Fukunaga's "Beasts of No Nation".

"Trumbo" lead the field with three nominations (Cranston/Best Actor, Mirren/Supporting Actress and Ensemble).

Complete lists of nominees and analysis is here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/sag-award-nominations-2016-screen-actors-guild-2-1201657179/

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/12/09/sag-awards-2016-nominees

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/sag-awards-nominations-full-list-20151209

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/09/sifting-through-the-wreckage-of-da-fuq-sag-award-nominations/

NEW PRE-SAG/GLOBES GURUS 

Movie City News was up yesterday with the latest Gurus of Gold poll just before the nomination announcements from The Golden Globes and The Screen Actors Guild.  The Gurus updated the six biggest categories.

Here's where Telluride films are in the latest Gurus poll:

Best Picture: "Spotlight" #1, "Carol" #4, "Room" #6, "Steve Jobs" #11.

Best Direction: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight" #2, Todd Haynes/"Carol" #3, Lenny Abrahamson/"Room" #7.

Best Actress: Brie Larson/"Room" #1, Cate Blanchett/"Carol" #3, Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"/#4, Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette" #6, Rooney Mara/"Carol" #8.

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs" #3, Johnny Depp/"Black Mass #5.

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/"Carol" #1, Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs" #3.

Best Supporting Actor: Michael Keaton/"Spotlight" #1, Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight" #3, Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation" #5, Jacob Tremblay/"Room" #8.

The complete new Gurus of Gold chart is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-its-getting-hot-in-here/

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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