The FAC's First Look After The PGA / More on Son of Saul / Todd Haynes Talks Carol and More...

Good Thursday Everyone...


THE FAC'S FIRST LOOK AFTER THE PGA

We asked on Monday if last weekend's Producers Guild win by Adam McKay's The Big Short had changed the Best Picture Oscar race and that answer is yes...but...perhaps not as much as I would have thought.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

Some of these experts have not yet updated their predictions.  That data has been discounted.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

Here's The FAC for Oscar wins in eight major categories:


BEST PICTURE

1) The Big Short
2) Spotlight
3) The Revenant
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) The Martian
6) Room
7) Bridge of Spies
8) Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short and Spotlight are actually tied in the FAC numbers but the Short edges in front due to more #1 votes.  SO, The FAC says it's close.  Check the Gold Derby link below and you'll see that a broader segment of Oscar experts agree that the contest is still tight.  That all could change over the next two weekends with The Screen Actors Guild Awards and then The Directors Guild.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alejandro Inarittu/The Revenant
2) Adam McKay/The Big Short
3) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight
4) George Miller/Mad Max: fury Road
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn
3) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
4) Matt Damon/The Martian
5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
2) Rooney Mara/Carol
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sylvester Stallone/Creed
2) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short
5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Big Short
2) Room
3) Carol
4) Brooklyn
5) The Martian


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight
2) Inside Out
3) Straight outta Compton
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Ex Machina


Comments:  The closest category: Best Director.  Unanimous choices: DiCaprio, Vikander, and the screenplays for both The Big Short and Spotlight.  Stallone is not a unanimous choice but he's close. The Best Actress race seems a little closer than I would have thought.

Meanwhile, the Gold Derby experts say that Spotlight still has a small edge over The Big Short but it's tight:

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/416/

MORE ON SON OF SAUL

Interviews and profiles of director Laszlo Nemes and Son of Saul:

The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/01/son-of-saul-holocaust-films/424491/

The New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/22/movies/laszlo-nemes-narrates-a-scene-from-son-of-saul.html


Eat Drink Films:

http://eatdrinkfilms.com/2016/01/21/son-of-saul-interview/




TODD HAYNES TALKS CAROL AND MORE

Director/writer Todd Haynes in a conversation about Carol and his career from The Playlist:


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-1-hour-44-minute-conversation-with-todd-haynes-covering-his-career-inspiration-and-carol-20160121



That'll do it for this Thursday.  More to come on Monday...

The Big Short Wins Big / Trailering Marguerite / THR Features Room Star

Welcome to Monday after a late Saturday night surprise...

THE BIG SHORT WINS BIG

It wasn't a total shocker late Saturday night when The Producers Guild of America named Adam McKay's The Big Short the winner of its Film of the Year Award but it's also what was not expected.  I think most interested observers felt that Spotlight would win and follow that with a Best Picture Oscar win next month.

The Big Short along with Mad Max:Fury Road and The Revenant were all thought to be possibilities but, again, if the big collective Oscar experts sites are to be believed, most thought Spotlight would win.

The PGA is regarded by many as the best bellwether for the Big Win having matched exactly the last eight years (half and half actually for its tie two years ago between Gravity and eventual Oscar winner 12 Years a Slave).  The PGA's voting process is very much like the Oscar's preferential ballot and it's hard to argue with eight years of predictive accuracy.

On a related note, I was going to run a new FAC analysis this morning for 6-8 major Oscar categories in today's post but with Saturday night's news, I've decided to wait and run that in Thursday's regular post to see what effect the PGA win will have.  SO, if you were looking for that today, my apologies.

You'd be wise to bet that The Big Short will now become the favorite to win Best Picture.

Here's early analysis from Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kristopher Tapley/InContention and Dave McNary/Variety:


http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/01/24/the-big-short-surprises-to-win-producers-guild/

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscars-pga-the-big-short-best-picture-frontrunner-1201687331/

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/pga-awards-winners-2016-producers-guild-of-america-1201687085/

Looking at these articles, you'll find that The Big Short will likely be at the top of the next charts from The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby (as well as The FAC) but everyone seems at least alittle cautious because the season has been anything but predictable.  Chack back Thursday...

Here's the last Gold Derby and Gurus of Gold charts that were post nomination announcements and prior to Saturday's PGA announcement:


http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/416/


http://moviecitynews.com/2016/01/gurus-o-gold-the-week-after-nominations/


Of course, I have to mention that if The Big Short does win on Oscar night that the Telluride consecutive string of Best Picture winners would end (each year since 2010).


TRAILERING MARGUERITE

Marguerite trailer via YouTube

One of the films that I wish I had gotten to in Telluride last September was Marguerite.  It's a story loosely based on the experience of American "singer" Florence Foster Jenkins.  My brother caught a screening that weekend and really enjoyed it.  The Cohen Media Group has released a trailer with English subtitles for the film .  The film does not have a set U.S. release date at this point but has opened in much of Europe and is set to open in England on Mar. 18.  Here's The Playlist story that covers the release of the subtitled trailer:


http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-marguerite-hits-a-high-note-in-feel-good-trailer-for-festival-sensation-20160122



THR FEATURES ROOM STAR

The Hollywood Reporter has posted an extensive profile of Best Actress Oscar favorite Brie Larson.  Larson was in Telluride last Labor Day with Lenny Abrahamson's (also Oscar nominated for Best Director) Room.

Room was very well regarded at the end of TFF #42 as MTFB's People's Telluride ratings had the film at #1 with a 4.47 rating (out of a possible perfect score of five).

Laurie Sandell writing for THR:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/brie-larsons-20-year-climb-857011



That's a wrap for Monday...come back Thursday to see where the Oscar landscape is.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The Film Stage Hot 100 / Shining on Spotlight / New Trailer for Son of Saul

Good Thursday Friends...here's what's happening in the film world as it relates to the Telluride FIlm Festival...


THE FILM STAGE'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED FILMS OF 2016

Much like The Playlist's list in my last post, today I'm looking at a "most anticipated" film list for the new year from The Film Stage.  Among those 100 films are 20 that have, at first blush, some Telluride potential.  Some overlap with the list from The Playlist, some don't:

#98 Passengers
#95 HHHH
#85 Wilson
#79 The Secret Scripture
#75 The Commune
#72 Comancheria
#71 The Light Between Oceans
#70 A Hologram for the King
#67 War Machine
#53 The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez
#51 Neruda
#45 Family Photos
#44 Queen of Katme
#41 Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
#32 It's Just the End f the World
#19 American Honey
#14 Salt and Fire
#9 The Salesman
#6 The Unknown Girl
#3 The Lost City of Z

The complete list from The Film Stage is here:

http://thefilmstage.com/features/our-100-most-anticipated-films-of-2016/



SHINING ON SPOTLIGHT

MTFB continues to focus on the TFF #42 films that are making their mark as we move to the end game of the Oscar season including six time Oscar nominee, Tom McCarthy's Spotlight.  Included here are interviews with McCarthy and a profile about the origins of the film:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggeCcZem5zM&feature=youtu.be


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-tom-mccarthy-talks-spotlight-state-of-journalism-the-wire-more-20151106


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-dreamworks-derailed-spotlight-no-836366


NEW TRAILER FOR SON OF SAUL

Best Foreign Language Film nominee Son of Saul also continues to be in the forefront this Oscar season.  I have included stories that accompanied the release of a new trailer for the film (trailer included below) and interviews with writer/director Laszlo Nemes.

Son of Saul trailer via YouTube

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/new-trailer-for-oscar-nominated-hungarian-masterpiece-son-of-saul/


http://www.slashfilm.com/son-of-saul-trailer-oscars/


http://cultmontreal.com/2016/01/son-of-saul-laszlo-nemes/


http://thefilmstage.com/features/son-of-saul-director-laszlo-nemes-on-capturing-a-portait-of-hell-and-the-spiritual-experience-of-cannes/


That's your MTFB for Thursday.  More to come on Monday...including The FAC's first pass at what films/actors are out front for Oscar in six major categories.  Also, a look at this weekend's winners announcement from the Producers Guild of America.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

And Now...On with the Show (The Oscar Show, that is)... / Peering into the Future / Reaching Back to TFF #37...For Some Litigation

Welcome to the new week...Oscar's First Act has concluded with last Thursday's announcement of the nominees.  Now we move to Act Two which culminates on Feb. 28th.  This period of weeks between Oscar nomination announcement and the actual awards is always a sort pf odd limbo-esque time.  The race that has been in some motion, really since the conclusion of Labor Day weekend and Telluride's fest continues but in a much different fashion.

What has been a very broad affair including many, many films is now truncated to the nominees and  as a couple of the Big Time Oscar Pundits have said since Thursday, the campaigning continues but becomes less obvious and noisy.

At the same time, this space begins to turn, a least a little bit, to its post-Oscar (and primary purpose) which is the attempt to discern some of the films that might be on the program for TFF #43.

Today's post straddles the duality of Oscar and TFF prognostication and that's where we'll be for the next five and a half weeks...

We start with...


AND NOW...ON WITH THE SHOW (THE OSCAR SHOW, THAT IS)...

So here we are 96 hours, give or take, removed from the revealing of Oscar nominations.  Ridley Scott isn't nominated.  No actors of color made it into any of the 20 acting slots.  Lenny Abrahamson IS nominated.  These are among the most discussed topics for Oscar observers these past few days.  But, of course, the other question is...who/what is going to win in a few weeks?

Not surprisingly, there's non shortage of Oscarologists with their early predictions.  I have linked Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter, Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and (collectively) The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News and their early line on winners below.

Some observations from looking at all of their predictions:

Spotlight remains the favorite to win Best Picture but there is some serious thought that The Big Short, The Revenant and Mad Max:Fury Road are still playing.  Most believe that The Martian, Room, Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn are not likely Best Picture winners.

Prohibitive favorites seem to be (even this far out from the actual awards):

Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant for Best Actor
Brie Larson/Room for Best Actress
Sylvester Stallone/Creed for Best Supporting Actor
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer/Spotlight for Original Screenplay
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph/The Big Short for Best Original Screenplay
Amy for Best Documentary
Son of Saul for Best Foreign Language Film
Inside Out for Best Animated Feature


These eight picks seem pretty solid already.  Some others seem very likely (Mad Max:Fury Road looks good for Film Editing and Production Design for example) but aren't what I would call locks. Of course, some categories seem very, very competitive: Original Score and Song for example.

The FAC will be periodically updating Oscar predictions as we move through these next few weeks. Check back here.  You might remember that, last year, The FAC hit 20 of 24 categories on Oscar night and 22 of 24 in 2014.

Here are your links to The Gurus, Tapley, Feinberg and Stone:

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/01/gurus-o-gold-nomination-day-part-1-of-2/

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-11416/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/


PEERING INTO THE FUTURE

One of the ways I get the ball rolling in earnestness about Telluride film speculation is to analyze the first of the year "Most Anticipated" film lists from a variety of outlets and look for titles that seem T-ride possible.  Today. I begin that process by looking at The Playlist's list of 100 films they're most excited about.  Among the titles they include are 20 that seem like they might SHOW up on Labor Day weekend.  Here they are with their position on The Playlist list (and an occasional comment):

#96 A United Kingdom
#95 True Crimes
#93 Trespass Against Us
#92 The Zookeeper's Wife
#89 Queen of Katme
#83 The Founder (the story of Ray Kroc and the development of McDonalds starring Michael Keaton)...It's high on my Telluride request list...
#74 Neruda
#62 The Promise
#61 Gold
#60 Comancheria
#51 HHHH
#45 Salt and Fire (Herzog returns to Telluride?)
#38 Personnel Shopper
#28 Passengers (this really isn't all that likely... save for the fact that its Morten Tyldum's directorial follow-up to The Imitation Game).
#23 American Honey
#19 The Unknown Girl
#18 It's Only the End of the World
#9 The Lost City of Z
#5 The Salesman (the latest from Iranian genius Asghar Farhadi.  After both A Separation and The Past playing Telluride, you have to believe that this is very likely.  It might start out at the #1 spot when I actually begin putting together a Telluride #43 list in June).
#3 War Machine (this lands on the list because it's in the hands of Netflix which made its debut at Telluride last year with Beasts of No Nation and Winter on Fire.  I think there's a decent shot that they'll be back).

So there are 20 films from The Playlist list.  If my past record at extrapolating from The Playlist is any indicator we can expect that five will make the Telluride lineup.  Last year's parsing of The Playlist 100 included these films that I wrote could play T-ride: Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette, Spotlight and Carol.  In 2014, with the same circumstances, I mentioned: Leviathan, Mr. Turner, Two Days One Night, Birdman and Foxcatcher.

Here's the link to The Playlist's complete hot 100 FOR 2016:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-100-most-anticipated-films-of-2016-20160104


Thursday, I'll take a look at The Film Stage's list of  100 2016 films.


REACHING BACK TO TFF #37...FOR SOME LITIGATION

Remember Tabloid?  Errol Morris' look at one time beauty queen Joyce McKinney?  It was one of my favorite films of TFF #37(2010).

Now, it looks like we may hear about it again some five years later as the subject of the documentary, Ms. McKinney has decided to sue Morris.

Her claim is that she was lied to and disparaged in the film.  Check out the story from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/errol-morris-heads-trial-irate-854823


That's a wrap for Monday...more to come on Thursday...


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Oscar Nomination Analysis from The Big Dogs...Updated

OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS FROM THE BIG DOGS...

Here's a taste of what the industry experts are writing about this morning's Oscar nomination announcement:

Ramin Saoodeh/Variety:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/oscar-nominations-2016-snubs-surprises-1201679981/


Matt Donnelly and Beatrice Verhoeven/The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nominee-snubs-and-surprises-ridley-scott-sylvester-stallone-and-more-photos/1/

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-nominations-shocking-stats-fun-855671


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-nominations-a-new-race-855839

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-nominations-2016-analysis-ridley-scott-snubbed-1201679983/


Jason Guerassio/Business Insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/oscar-snubs-2016-1


Greg Gilman/The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nominations-by-the-numbers-the-revenant-fox-take-the-lead/


Devan Coggan/Entertainment Weekly:

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/01/14/oscars-2016-snubs


The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/2016-oscar-nominations-the-biggest-shocks-snubs-surprises-20160114


Jacob Hall/SlashFilm:

http://www.slashfilm.com/where-art-thou-carol-and-creed-the-biggest-2016-oscar-snubs/


Anne Thompson/Indiewire and Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-nominations-2016-snubs-and-surprises-winner-picks-analysis-20160114


David Ehrlich/Rolling Stone:

http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/oscars-2016-12-major-nomination-snubs-20160114


David Poland/Movie City News:

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/01/20-weeks-to-oscar-nomination-morning/


Gold Derby:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/11474/oscar-nominations-2016-analysis-the-revenant-spotlight-the-martian-759136428.html



Kyle Buchanan/Vulture:

http://www.vulture.com/2016/01/oscar-nominations-the-big-snubs-and-surprises.html

More to come...

Oscar Nominations 2016 Analysis...Telluride and Beyond...

OSCAR NOMINATIONS 2016 ANALYSIS...TELLURIDE AND BEYOND...

Please refer to the previous post on this site for a complete list of Oscar nominations.

Let's talk Telluride Oscar films first...

T-ride #42 films scored 26 nominations today with 27th coming for a TFF #41 film.  Almost exactly the average over the past few years that I have been following Oscar's relationship with the Telluride Film Festival.  Here's the list of Telluride films and nominations:

Spotlight leads the way with six nominations: Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Supporting Actress (Rachel McAdams) and Film Editing.

Carol also had six nominations: Best Actress (Cate Blanchett), Best Supporting Actress (Rooney Mara), Cinematography, Score, and Costumes.  Carol missed out on a number of nominations it was thought to be a possibility for.  The FAC had it getting eight nominations.

Room had four nominations: Best Picture, a surprise Best Director nom, Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

Steve Jobs had two nominations for acting: Michael Fassbender for Lead Male and Kate Winslet for Supporting Actress.

Five other feature films were single-nominated:

45 Years: Best Actress for Charlotte Rampling.
Anomalisa: Best Animated Feature
Son of Saul: Best Foreign Language Film
Winter on Fire: Best Documentary
The Look of Silence: Best Documentary (TFF#41)

And four short films that played TFF #42 were nominated:

For Best Animated Short: Sanjay's Super Team and Prologue
and for Best Live Action Short: Day One and Everything Will Be Okay.


The FAC goes 95 out of 121 in predicting nominations for a 78.5% rate...slightly better than my past averages...and as weird and fluid as this year has been, I'm surprised The FAC did that well.

The FAC's best categories: Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress Live Action Short and Cinematography in which I went 5 for 5.

The worst categories: Best Original Song, Animated Feature, Production Design, Supporting Actor, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Visual Effects in all of which I was 3 of 5.

Of the categories where The FAC missed a nominee, eight of those categories had the #6 FAC pick as a nominee (#9 in Best Picture for Room).  Those categories: Best Picture, Documentary, Foreign Language Film, Original Song, Animated Short, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

Now on to general Oscar news and thoughts...


The Revenant leads all films with a whopping 12 nominations (I had it getting eight).  It really over performed.  The Golden Globe love last Sunday was telling.

Mad Max: Fury Road picked up a second best 10 nominations...exactly the number The FAC had predicted.

Other major film nomination totals included:

The Martian with seven including Best Picture, Actor and Adapted Screenplay but NOT for Ridley Scott's Direction.

Bridge of Spies with five including Best Picture,  Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

The Big Short with five including Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

Star Wars; The Force Awakens with five..all technicals.

The Danish Girl with four including Actor and Supporting Actress.

Three nominations apiece went to The Hateful Eight, Sicario and Brooklyn (including a Best Picture nomination).

Ex Machina and Inside Out each received two nominations.

Surprises today:  No Ridley Scott for Best Director for The Martian
The strength of The Revenant including a fairly surprising Supporting Actor nomination for Tom Hardy.

Winter on Fire's Documentary nomination.

Lenny Abrahamson's directing nom for Room.

No Aaron Sorkin nomination for Steve Jobs.

More to come with links to other expert analysis later in the day.

Oscar Nominees List...More to Come

OSCAR NOMINEES...MORE TO COME...

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Best Director
The Big Short, Adam McKay
Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller
The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Room, Lenny Abrahamson
Spotlight, Tom McCarthy

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
Look of Silence
What Happened Miss Simone
Winter on Fire

Best Foreign Language Film
“Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia
“Mustang” France
“Son of Saul” Hungary
“Theeb” Jordan
“A War” Denmark

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Song
“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple song No. 3,” Youth
“Til it Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s on the Wall,” Spectre

Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Best Animated Short
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Best Live Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer

Final Oscar Predictions from Oscar Experts-Updated

Here are links to the final Oscar nomination predictions from many Oscar experts;

Variety:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/oscar-nomination-predictions-2016-academy-awards-1201678182/


Awards Watch:

http://awardswatch.com/predictions/final-2016-oscar-predictions-from-the-gold-rush-gang-spotlight-the-revenant-the-big-short-the-martian-carol-room-mad-max-fury-road/#GoldRush


Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/01/13/101556/


The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nominations-predictions-can-star-wars-and-mad-max-muscle-in/



Kristopher Tapley/InContention:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-nomination-predictions-in-contention-1201679253/


Entertainment Weekly:

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/01/13/prizefighter-oscar-predictions


Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-11316/


The Film Experience:

http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2016/1/13/who-will-be-nominated-for-best-picture-our-final-predictions.html


Anne Thompson/Indiewire and Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar_predicts_chart


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/01/13/final-oscar-predictions-for-2015-just-gimme-some-truth/


Tomris Laffly/Popcorn Business:

http://popcornbusiness.blogspot.com/


Oliver Lyttleton/The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-playlists-predictions-for-the-2016-oscar-nominations-20160112

What are your Oscar thoughts???

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Nomination Predcitions

Here they are...what is almost the final version of the FAC before Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow morning.  I will be along tomorrow with a post-announcement post that does some analysis in terms of Telluride films as well as some general observations.

I should note here that The FAC is historically about 75-80% accurate on nomination morning,  In most categories, The FAC usually misses one nomination but it's good to note that The FAC's #6 in most categories is the film/person that picks up the nomination-also about 75% of the time.

Categories where a #7 or higher seeded film/person gets nominated are relatively rare.

That said, this year has been so weird and uncertain, I really do expect that The FAC's percentage is likely to be lower than average.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Sanjay's Super Team 
2) We Can't Live Without the Cosmos
3) World of Tomorrow
4) Bear Story
5) If I Was God

6) Prologue
7) Love in the Time of March Madness
8) An Object at Rest
9) My Home
10) Carface


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Ave Maria
2) Shok
3) Day One
4) Stutterer
5) Everything Will Be Okay

6) Bad Hunter
7) The Free Man
8) Winter Light
9) Bis Gliech
10) Contralepo


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) 50 Feet from Syria

6) Minertia
7) My Enemy, My Brother
8) Starting Point
9) The Testimony
10) Chau, Beyond the Lines

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revenant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) Spotlight (2)
4) The Revenant (5)
5) The Big Short (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (60
7) Sicario (9)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10) Creed (10)


Comment: In light of the A.C.E. Eddie nominations, don't be surprised if "Spotlight" is replaced by Sicario or Bridge of Spies.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)

6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)

Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground

Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)

6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)

Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant (1)
2) Sicario (3)
3) Mad Max: Fury Road (2)
4) Carol (5)
5) The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (7)
7) The Martian (6)
8) Son of Saul (9)
9) Brooklyn (NR)
10) Creed (10)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)

6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)

Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category.  The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)

6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)

Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck

Comment:  Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Rooney Mara/Carol (3)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (6)
7) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (10)
8) Jane Fonda/Youth (7)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (9)
10) Joan Allen/Room (NR)

Hot: Mara, Vikander (for Ex Machina) and Allen
Not: Vikander (for The Danish Girl) and Banks

Comment: Vikander drops here because she's picking up steam in the lead category for the same role and then the  possibilities get even weirder.  What if Vikander gets enough support to be nominated for both Danish AND Ex Machina in THIS category and misses in Lead?  That could happen too.

My head hurts...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (1)
2) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (3)
3) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (2)
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short (9)
5) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (4) (TFF #41)

6) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (8)
7) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)
8) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (6)
9) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
10) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (NR)

Hot: Bale, Ruffalo and Del Toro
Not: Tremblay, Keaton, Dano and Hardy

Comment: Rylance is possibly your only sure bet in this category,  Elba and Stallone are very likely...but I wouldn't even call them locks at this point.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (3)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (4)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (5)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (9)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Charlize Theron/Mad Max:Fury Road (NR)
10) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (NR)

Hot: Dame Helen, Theron and Dame Maggie
Not: Silverman and Mulligan

Comment:  A "stable" category through the five nomination spots...BUT... what if Mara bumps Lawrence because the Academy isn't buying The Weinstien Company's campaign for her in Supporting?  The same question could be asked  about Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, who sits at #11 on the Best Actress FAC.  That would/could turn both female acting categories on their heads.
What if there is enough bleed over for one or both women that one or both miss being nominated in either category (though Vikander has a real shot at getting in Supporting for Ex Machina...which is also, arguably a lead role as well)?

What are Oscars rules if one or both get enough votes for the same role to be nominated in either category?  MAYHEM!

Thursday morning could be REALLY interesting.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (5)
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
4) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (6)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Michael B. Jordan/Creed (NR)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston, Jordan
Not: McKellen

Comment: It seems to me that this category might be locked with the top five.

BEST DIRECTION



1)  Ridley Scott/The Martian (2)
2) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
4) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) Adam McKay/The Big Short (6)

6) Todd Haynes/Carol (5)
7) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (6)
8) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (7)
9) F. Gary Gray/Straight Outta Compton (NR)
10) Denis Villenueve/Sicario (NR)

Hot: McKay, Gray, Villenueve
Not: Tarantino and Crowley

Comment:  Adam McKay is so hot that you need to expect he gets a nomination on Thursday morning.  If that happens, who gets bumped?  The FAC suggests its Haynes.  This category seems really bunched through the top seven spots and even Abrahamson and Gray could surprise.

BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Big Short (8)
3) The Martian (2)
4) The Revenant (3)
5) Mad Max: Fury Road (7)
6) Bridge of Spies (9)
7) Carol (6)
8) Brooklyn (5)

9) Room (4)
10) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
11) Inside Out (10)
12) Sicario (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton and Sicario
Not: Brooklyn, Room, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight

Comment: The fluidity and uncertainty of so much of this in this year's Oscar race is underlined by the presence of nine different films listed above as either hot or not.  It's crazy to be this close to nomination day and still have this lack of clarity.


If The FAC is 100% accurate  (bahahahaha)...then these statements will be true tomorrow morning:

Telluride films will earn 30 (28 for TFF #42 and 2 for TFF #41) nominations (with another 16 possible).

Carol will lead all Telluride films with eight nominations: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume and Score.  It has two other possibilities: Best Direction and a switch of Rooney Mara from Supporting to Lead Actress for a maximum of nine nominations.

For a good long while, I thought Carol would lead the tally board on Oscar nomination morning but it looks like that honor will go to Mad Max: Fury Road...see below...

Spotlight will get five nominations: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Film Editing (although that's pretty iffy).  It has the possibility of another three nominations; two for Supporting Actor and Score.

Steve Jobs will get three nominations: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  It has a shot an additional nomination four Original Score.

Room will be only nominated twice:  Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  Room is also possible for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress.

TFF films that will get single nominations but have a shot at more include:

Black Mass: Nomination for Makeup/Hair and Johnny Depp might still sneak into the Best Actor race.

Anomalisa: Nomination for Best Animated Feature and a shot at Best Adapted Screenplay.

Son of Saul: Nomination for Best Foreign Film and a possibility for Best Cinematography.

Single nominations with no additional possibilities predicted by The FAC include:

He Named Me Malala: Best Documentary Feature
The Look of Silence: Best Documentary Feature (TFF #41)
Viva: Best Foreign Language Film
Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation: Best Supporting Actor
Michael Shannon/99 Homes (TFF #41) : Best Supporting Actor
Sanjay's Super Team: Best Animated Short
Day One: Best Live Action Short
Everything Will Be Fine: Best Live Action Short

The only other feature film nomination possibility looks to be Suffragette for Best Costumes.
Other shorts possibilities are Prologue and Carface which are both animated shorts.


I'll be posting more later today as MTFB/FAC provides links to the final Oscar predictions of various experts so. check back here from time to time over the next 24 hours.  As mentioned above, I'll post an Oscar/Telluride analysis sometime around midday tomorrow.

What's your Oscar thinking???

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712