The FAC and Screenplays / Shorts Short Listed / Arrival's Screenplay Makes a Move

It's Monday after Thanksgiving...hope you survived the ritualistic overeating.


THE FAC AND SCREENPLAYS

The Film Awards Clearinghouse has not assessed the Oscar race for Screenplays since Oct. 20th so I thought it would be a good idea to do that as the landscape has shifted in both the Adapted and Original Screenplay races in the last five weeks as you shall see below.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Fences (1)
2) Arrival (4)
3) Silence (2)
4) Lion (3)
5) Sully (9)

6) Hidden Figures (6)
7) Love and Friendship (7)
8) Nocturnal Animals (10)
9) Elle (NR)
10) Live by Night (10)

Hot: Arrival, Sully and Elle
Not: Live by Night and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (which drops off the top ten completely)
On the Cusp: Hacksaw Ridge
Comment: Billy Lynn  completes the precipitous fall that had begun when we last looked these categories on 10/20. Arrival and Sully (both TFF #43 films) both got some significant boosts in the last five weeks.  I expect Silence to reassert itself as it's first trailer dropped this week to a strongly positive reception.  Fences still seems like the script to beat, though the charge by Arrival puts it close to Fences in support among the Oscar experts.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Moonlight (3)
3) La La Land (2)
4) Hell or High Water (7)
5) Jackie (6)

6) 20th Century Women (4)
7) Loving (5)
8) The Lobster (8)
9) Captain Fantastic (9)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)

Hot: Hell or High Water
Not: 20th Century Women and Loving
On the Cusp: The Founder
Comment:  No additions or subtractions among the top ten in this category in the last five weeks and that seems a bit remarkable.


LOOKING AT LA LA LAND

Indiewire and Awards Daily both posted a piece this past weekend that highlighted a "behind the scenes" featurette about Damien Chazelle's perceived Oscar front runner La La Land,  It runs just shy of four and a half minutes and features Chazzelle as well as Emma Stone, Ryan Gosling, John Legend and a number of others.  You can peruse it here via YouTube:

You can also take a look at the Indiewire story here.

And the Awards Daily story here.

SHORTS SHORT LISTED

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced the ten film shortlist for each of the short film categories and, as you might expect, there are a number of films that played as a part of Telluride's 2016 program.

Doc Shorts were announced last month (10/26) while Animated and Live Shorts were named this week.

On the list for Doc Shorts were three TFF #43 films: 4.1 Miles, Extremis and The White Helmets.

TFF #43 also had one film each on the two lists announced this week.  Inner Workings was on the Animated list and Nocturne in Black was on the Live Action list.

The complete list of ten for each category can be found from the Academy's press releases:

Doc Short List

Animated Short List

Live Action Short List

ARRIVAL'S SCREENPLAY MAKES A MOVE

As you probably noted above, Eric Heisserer's  screenplay for Denis Villenueve's Arrival has gained a good deal of traction in the Oscar race for Adapted Script since I last posted The FAC for that category back in October.  In the last week, the screenwriter has also been the focus of a large number of profile and interview pieces.

Heisserer is being lauded for adapting a story (by Ted Chiang) that was largely thought to be unadaptable.  Is an Oscar nomination on the offing for the scripter who has also penned Lights Out and The Thing (reboot in 2011).

Check out a number of the stories with these links:

from the Hollywood Reporter

from The Los Angeles Times

from Indiewire

from Screencraft.org

That's all for this Monday.  More happening on Thursday although I am likely to post a brief addition regarding the announcement of  the National Board of Review's choices for the year's best films that are due to be announce tomorrow.

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Independent Spirit Awards Reward TFF #43 Films / Focus on TFF #43 Performers / Oscar Biz Buzz

Happy Turkey Mastication Day!  Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS NOMINATIONS REWARD TFF #43 FILMS

The Film Independent Spirit Nominations were announced on Tuesday with two TFF #43 titles getting prominent attention.  Barry Jenkins Moonlight and Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had a ton of nominations (six and five respectively).  Moonlight co-lead all films tying Andrea Arnold's American Honey with the most nominations.

Moonlight was nominated for six Spirits: Best Feature, Direction, Screenplay, Cinematography Editing and the Robert Altman Award.
Manchester was nominated for five Spirits: Feature, Screenplay, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Supporting Male (Lucas Hedges) and Editing.

The only other mention for TFF #43 films was for Best International Film for Toni Erdmann.

Surprises/snubs included the lack of any individual acting nomination for Moonlight and no Supporting Female nom for Manchester's Michelle Williams.

Additionally, it should be noted that perceived Oscar front runner La La Land was not eligible for any Spirit nominations.

I have linked coverage below that breaks down the nominees,  analyzes the Oscar ramifications from these nominations and takes a deeper look at the perceived stunners.  Here are those links:


Nomination Coverage:

coverage from Indiewire

coverage from Variety

coverage from The Wrap


Oscar ramifications:


Sasha Stone of Awards Daily

Anne Thompson from Indiewire


Nomination analysis...surprises and snubs

Ramin Setoodeh of Variety



FOCUS ON TFF #43 PERFORMERS

As we move deeper into awards season and the release schedule for the films that are thought to be in play, we find ourselves able to access any number of stories, interviews and profiles of the actors from those films.  Within the last week we saw the posting of The Hollywood Reporter's annual Actresses Roundtable which features, among others, Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival and Naomie Harris/Moonlight from TFF #43 films.  That roundtable is here.

Additionally, Variety profiles actor Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea and focuses on how he came to play the role that has him in the thick of the discussion for Best Actor this year.  That Variety piece is here.

Finally (at least for this MTFB/FAC post) Indiewire talked to Moonlight's Naomie Harris who is also widely thought to be a leading candidate for an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actress. That Indiewire profile is here.


OSCAR BIZ BUZZ

Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter has updated his predictions for Oscar nominations.

Here's what he thinks will happen on nomination announcement morning:

La La Land gets 13 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, two nominations for Original Song, Production Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

Moonlight gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

Manchester by the Sea gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay.

According to Feinberg, TFF #43's other possible Oscar draw-Arrival-won't get any nominations. Feinberg mentions the film in eight categories but never lists it above the level of "major threat".

Here's the link to Feinberg's  complete predictions.

Meanwhile, Deadline's Pete Hammond has examined the aftermath of  the fall film festival season. Hammond offers takes on a number of films including Arrival. Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Sully.

Hammond's Deadline evaluation can be found here.


That's all for Turkey Day...more on Monday.

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Many Manchester Moments This Week / Bleed for This Highlighted / Musical Notes on La La Land

It's Monday...wake up!

A parenthetical note before we begin...both Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea and Ben Younger's Bleed for This opened this past weekend, thus explaining the slew of pieces/posts that we saw about both films from the latter part of the previous week...


MANY MANCHESTER MOMENTS THIS WEEK

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea was the focus of a good amount of publicity this weekendas it opened for public consumption.  The film has garnered terrific reviews ( 95 on Metacritic and 99% on Rotten Tomatoes) and is considered to be in play for a number of high profile Oscar nominations (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and it has at least four cast members that are part of the conversation with Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams thought to be very likely nominees).

Consequently, here are links to a few of the stories for MBTS that popped at the end of the week:

Here's Anne Thompson's take on how the film was put together.

Kate Erbland/Indiewire  on the editing for the film.

And Indiewire's Bill Desowitz writes about the constrction of the film's flashback sequences.


BLEED FOR THIS HIGHLIGHTED

Also opening this past weekend was Ben Younger's boxing flick based on the life of boxer Vinnie Pazienza.  Miles Teller (of Whiplash fame) plays Pazienza and Aaron Eckhart shines as his trainer Kevin Rooney).

The Hollywood Reporter posted this Miles Teller piece on Friday.  Meanwhile, the film's publicity folks posted this behind-the-scenes video on its Facebook page.



MUSICAL NOTES FROM LA LA LAND

Last Thursday I posted a link to a story from Variety that featured among other things about the film, a focus on the music that is such a fundamental part of it.  As the weekend approached I started seeing stories elsewhere that included a full rendition of the song City of Stars from La La Land's soundtrack (it's a very likely Oscar nominee for Best Original Song).  The stories also included the complete track list from the film's forthcoming album (I can't really wait for the album to become available).

Here, for your listening pleasure is the YouTube version of Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone dueting their hearts out:

And here are links to a three of those stories that include the duet as well as the film's official track list:

From The Film Stage.

From SlashFilm.

From The Playlist.

The film's soundtrack will reportedly be available on Dec. 9th, the day the film opens.


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FAC Update: The Acting Races in November / Stone, Gosling and the Musicof La La Land / Arrival Scene on the Cutting Room Floor

Welcome to Thursday.  Thanksgiving in one week...


FAC UPDATE: THE ACTING RACES IN NOVEMBER

It's been about a month since The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) portion of this blog took a look at where the Oscar acting races are so I felt like it was update time.  Since those October predictions Viola Davis/Fences and Dev Patel/Lion have both moved from the lead categories into supporting and both changes have made a significant difference across these categories.  Additionally, the fall out from the reactions to Birth of a Nation and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk have essentially removed those films and their casts from serious Oscar consideration...at least as far as the experts are concerned.

Here's the latest FAC for Best Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parenthesis.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (4)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (6)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (7)
7) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (8)
8) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
9) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (NR)
10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (NR)

Hot: Henson and Cotillard
Cold: Amy Adams for Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Jennifer Lawrence/Passengers
Comment:  Viola Davis was at the #3 spot last time we did this and her move to supporting has essentially meant that everyone moved up a spot.  If I were to quibble with anything at this point, it might be that I have a feeling...for the moment...that Adams gets in and Streep doesn't.  The FAC metric between them for the five and six spots is very tight.


BEST ACTOR

1) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
2) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
7) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (9)
9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (7)
10) Matthew McConnaughey/Gold (NR)

Hot: Beatty, Garfiled (for Hacksaw) and McConnaughey.
Not: Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Michael Keaton/The Founder
Comment:  Releases of Rules Don't Apply and Hacksaw Ridge massively boosted both Warren Beatty and Andrew Garfield in the Best Actor conversation.  It will be interesting of that boost takes hold over the next month or so.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (NR)
2) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1)
3) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (3)
5) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (4)

6) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
8) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
9) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)
10) Molly Shannon/Other People (NR)

Hot: Davis, of course, who became the instant favorite once the decision was made to campaign her here rather than as a lead.  Also Mirren and Shannon.
Not: Kristen Stewart for Billy Lynn who has completely disappeared from the chart.
On the Cusp: Lupita N'yong'o (Queen of Katwe)
Comment: It's Viola and then the "just an honor to be nominated" crew at least for the moment.  What was set to be a very competitive race probably isn't now.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (6)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (3)
3) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (2)
4) Dev Patel/Lion (NR)
5) Liam Neeson/Silence (1)

6) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (4)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (5)
8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (8)
9) Peter Saarsgard/Jackie (9)
10) Stephen Henderson/Fences (7)

Hot: Patel and Ali
Not: Neeson, Hedges, Henderson and Steve Martin (Billy Lynn) who drops completely off the list
On the Cusp: Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
Comment: Dev Patel's move to Supporting has gotten a big response...though not Viola Davis-level. Liam Neeson appears to be suffering from word that his role in Silence is very small.


From the four acting categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate then TFF #43 films would earn seven nominations with another three possibilities.


STONE, GOSLING AND THE MUSIC OF LA LA LAND

Variety's Jenelle Riley sat down with La La Land stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling a couple of months ago in the midst of the Toronto International Film Festival for an interview that ran just this week.  The lengthy piece also focuses on the music for the film and also includes comments from writer/director Damien Chazelle.  You can find that story here.


ARRIVAL SCENE ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR

Cinemablend reported this week that one of Amy Adams best scenes from the Denis Villenueve's Arrival ended up on the cutting room floor.  Sean O'Connell reports that the decision to excise the specific scene was so successfully acted that it actually was too revealing.  Check out the story here but BE AWARE that it does contain substantial SPOILERS.

That's your MTFB/FAC for Thursday.  More on Monday.


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AFI Fest in Full Swing-Features TFF #43 Films / Werner Herzog and His Volcanoes / Oscar Pundits Update

Welcome to Monday...

AFI IS IN FULL SWING AND FEATURES FILMS FROM TFF#43

The American Film Institutes's Film Festival began late last week and will continue through the 17th. The fest is the last festival to feature premieres of films that could find their way into the Oscar conversation before we start to hear from critic's groups.  Films such as Miss Sloane and Rules Don't Apply that have gotten a good deal of awards speculation will screen or have screened at AFI.

The National Board of Review announces their list of films in just over two weeks (Nov. 29) with the New York Critics announcing on Dec. 1 and LA critics on Dec. 4.  AFI will announce their top films on Dec. 8. Golden Globe nominations are announced on Dec. 12 and Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced Dec. 14.  The British Academy announces nominees on Jan. 10.

Other key guilds announce as follows:

Writer's Guild: Jan. 4
Directors Guild Jan. 12
Producers Guild: Jan. 10

Oscar voters begin voting for nominees on Jan. 5 and that closes Jan. 13.  Oscar nominees are announced Jan. 24.

Thanks to Sasha Stone's Awards Daily for the comprehensive calendar of awards dates.  You can find that complete list here.

At any rate, Telluride 2016 films are a significant presence at this year's AFI fest:  Included in the AFI schedule from TFF #43 are: La La Land, Bright Lights: Starring Debbie Reynolds, Fire at Sea, Toni Erdmann, Graduation, Neruda, Things to Come and Mifune: The Last Samurai.

Here's the link to the AFI Fest's lineup search function.  Also, coverage of the AFI Fest with 14 films highlighted (including Toni Erdmann) by Indiewire.



WERNER HERZOG AND HIS VOLCANOES

Werner Herzog, not surprisingly premiered his Volcano Around the World documentary, Into the Inferno, at Telluride.  Herzog's doc travels the globe and seeks to place volcanic natural phenomena into the contexts in which various cultures have interacted with them.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson reports here.

Additionally, here's the official trailer for the film:

Into the Inferno opened on Oct. 28 and is available to stream on Netflix.

OSCAR PUNDITS UPDATE

I've got a new FAC update coming for Thursday's post that will update the acting races but until then, here are the latest updated Oscar pics from two of the Oscar experts that are used for The FAC metric. 

Sasha Stone's weekly update on Friday has TFF #43 films La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival as the top four films contending for Best Picture.  She also has Sully at #9. Best Actor candidates include: Casey Affleck/Manchester and Tom Hanks/Sully.  Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival.  Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight and Lucas Hedges/Manchester.  Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight and Michelle Williams/Manchester,  Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester and Denis Villeneuve/Arrival.  Check the link above for the rest of Stone's updated predictions.

Meanwhile, The Playlist's Awards Campaign's Greg Ellwood also updated his picks:

Best Picture: La La Land, Sully, Manchester and Moonlight are his top four films.

Actor: Affleck/Manchester and Ryan Gosling/La La Land

Actress: Stone/La La Land

Supporting Actor:Ali/Moonlight

Supporting Actress: Harris/Moonlight and Williams/Manchester

Director: Chazelle/La La Land, Lonergan/Manchester and Barry Jenkins/Moonlight.

That's all I can muster for this Monday.  Return for more on Thursday.

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Arrival Arrives Amid Accolades / THR Talks to Teller / La La Land's Journey to the Screen / Looking to 2017

Good Thursday everyone...hope you survived Tuesday...


ARRIVAL ARRIVES AMID ACCOLADES

Denis Villenueve's SciFi think piece/adventure yarn Arrival will arrive in theaters tomorrow.  The film currently sits at Metacritic with an 81 score and from Rotten Tomatoes, the film is certified fresh at 97%.  The film did reasonably well in the post T-ride MTFB ratings with a 4.13 rating (out of 5.0) and  a #6 ranking from The People's Telluride, a 3.88 and #7 rating/ranking form The Professionals and a 8.01 rating and a #4 rank from The Composite Telluride.  The film also continues to flirt in a number of Oscar categories as you have seen here on the periodic FAC updates that I post.

With its imminent release, the film has continued this week to receive a lot of attention in the media including Anne Thompson's piece at Indiewire from yesterday that discusses the reasons that the film could not have been made within the traditional studio environment.  Also appearing this week we saw this post from Variety that focused on Amy Adams and the importance of communication as a part of the story of the film.

Arrival's IMDb page is here.


THR TALKS TO TELLER

Scott Feinberg continued his ongoing Awards Chatter podcast series at The Hollywood Reporter yesterday with a sit down with Bleed for This (77% at RT with only 13 reviews, TFF rates/ranks: Peeps: 3.41 #14, Pros: 2.71 #13, Comp: 6.12 #13) star Miles Teller.  The true life boxing story opens next week (11/18).

The Post from THR includes a profile as well as the podcast and you can snag it here.


LA LA LANDS JOURNEY TO THE SCREEN

The Hollywood Reporter's Rebecca Ford wrote a fairly lengthy piece this week detailing the travails of the development of Damien Chazelle's Oscar favorite (at least for the time being) La La Land.  La La Land is scheduled to open Dec. 16 and is set to play as part of the AFI Fest next week.  It currently looks on track to reach double digit Oscar nominations and quite conceivably be the most nominated film of the year on Jan. 24th.

The film has had a very charmed run through the fall film festivals with a Best Actress prize for Emma Stone from Venice and the Audience Award from Toronto.

Click here to read the Ford article.



LOOKING TO 2017

Keep this on your radar for the next 10 months or so.  Paramount will open Alexander Payne's Downsizing on Dec. 22, 2017.  That puts it smack in the awards calendar window and also in a position to make the lineup for Telluride.  Payne has become one of TFF's "Usual Suspects" over the last decade or so after having Guest Directed in 2009 he has since screened The Descendants (2011) and Nebraska (2013) at the fest.  Downsizing stars Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig and tells the story of a man who chooses miniaturization as a solution to some of the issues in hos life.

Here's the Downsizing IMDb page link.

As well as the THR story that includes the release date news.


That's all she wrote for this Thursday.  More on Monday.  Have a good weekend!

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La La Land Lands a Final Trailer and More / Manchester by the Sea's Producer: Matt Damon / The NYT and Moonlight

Hello All on a Monday in November...


LA LA LAND LANDS A FINAL TRAILER AND MORE

Damien Chazelle 's La La Land released its final pre--theatrical release trailer this past week.  It's gorgeous and stunning and for those of us who caught the film at TFF #43 (or Toronto or other fests) tremendously evocative of the experience of having seen the film.  The trailer does what I want, which is to make me want to catch it again.  Here it is via YouTube:

As you might expect, I have included press coverage from a number of sources of the final trailer's release.  La La Land opens in limited fashion on Dec. 2 and  goes into wider release on Dec. 9.

Here's coverage from:

Indiewire

The Film Stage

Awards Circuit

As well as this story from The Hollywood Reporter about the journey of La La Land from its inception to its realization from THR's Rebecca Ford.

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA'S PRODUCER: MATT DAMON

He's not the only producer of Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea but his name is certainly the most recognizable.  Matt Damon was featured this past week as a part of The Hollywood Reporter's Producers Roundtable for his work in bringing Manchester by the Sea to the big screen.  Damon, at one point was set to both star and direct the film but other commitments made that impossible.

Nevertheless, the film is right at the top of mist Oscar conversation which is why Damon is part of the THR producers convo.  I have included links to two THR posts focused on the producer's group and Damon specifically.  Here they are...

THR's Producer's Roundtable

Additionally, here's the THR post that  focuses on Damon specifically.

THE NYT AND MOONLIGHT

And the final story this Monday is to pass along the link to The New York Times podcast from Wesley Morris and Jenna Wortham as they deep dice on Barry Jenkins fantastic Moonlight (which I have publicly declared to be "perfect".  

Check the story and the podcast here.

That's a wrap for this Monday.  Come back for more on Thursday!

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FAC Updates Best Picture and Director / Nomination News: BIFA, H'Wood Music, CinemaEye / Jeremy Renner in Arrival / Views of Manchester

Good Thursday film friends...

THE FAC UPDATES BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTOR

The last look by The FAC for these two major categories was three weeks ago (Oct. 13) and, woo-boy, have the fortunes have changed for Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk.  I noted a couple of weeks back as I was updating the screenplay categories that we were beginning to see the results of a less than stellar NYFF reception to the film as the script had dropped from 1st to fifth in the Adapted Screenplay category.  As you'll see below, the fall is all but complete for the film that was at one time regarded as a real contender for multiple major awards.


I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parenthesis.

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)
2) Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Fences (4)
4) Moonlight (5)
5) Lion (7)
6) Silence (6)
7) Jackie (8)
8) Arrival (9)

9) Loving (10)
10) Sully (11)
11) Hidden Figures (N/R)
12) (TIE) Hell or High Water (N/R), Live By Night (N/R), 20th Century Women (12)

Hot: La La Land, Lion
Stone COLD: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
On the Cusp: A Monster Calls
Comment:  La La Land couldn't move up any spots because it was previously at #1 but its stranglehold on the top spot has only strengthened on the past three weeks.  Billy Lynn's Long Walk has gotten impossibly long regarding major Oscar nominations.  It dropped from the #2 spot to a tie for 20th.  I'm not sure I recall any more precipitous drop in the years The FAC has been in existence.

This note too:  I'm getting the feeling that the biggest challenge to La La Land might well be Garth Davis' Lion.  It seems to be picking up a lot of Audience Awards at various regional film fests.


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (5)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)
5) Denzel Washington/Fences (7)

6) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (8)
7) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (6)
8) Garth Davis/Lion (9)
9) Jeff Nichols/Loving (10)
10) Clint Eastwood/Sully (N/R)

Hot: Jenkins, Washington
Not: Lee
On the Cusp: Ben Affleck/Live by Night
Comment:  Ang Lee also takes a hit in this category with the BLLHTW swoon.

NOMINATION NEWS

     BIFA NOMS THREE TFF #43 FILMS

The British Independent Film Association announced the nominees for their superlatives earlier this week.  Obviously the films that received the most attention were British.  The leading film was Ken Loach's Palme d'Or winner I, Daniel Blake.  

Telluride 2016 films popped up in a big way in the Best International Film category with Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea and Toni Erdmann earning nominations in the category.  The other two films nominated were Hunt for the Wilderpeople and Mustang.

Find full coverage of the BIFA nominations here from BIFA itself as well as from Indiewire here. 



     LA LA LANDS MUSIC NOMS

Justin Hurwitz and his collaborators have been thrice nominated for music in Damien Chazelle's La La Land.  Hurwitz was nominated by The Hollywood Music in Media awards for Original Score and two songs from the original musical were nominated for Best Original Song Audition and City of Stars which Hurwitz co-wrote with Benj Pasek and Justin Paul.  La La Land led the pack with the three nominations.  Additionally, Howard Britell was nominated for Score for Moonlight.  Coverage of all of the nominations is here from Variety.

     CINEMAEYE NOMS FIRE AT SEA

And in other nomination news, Gianfranco Rosi's Fire at Sea which played Telluride and won the Golden Bear at this year's Berlin Film Fest was nominated for Best feature documentary by CinemaEye.  Rosi was also nominated for outstanding documentary direction.  The complete coverage of the CinemaEye nominations can be found here from The Wrap.





JEREMY RENNER IN ARRIVAL

Amy Adams has gotten the lion's share of attention for her leading role in Denis Villenueve's Arrival including serious Best Actress Oscar buzz (which may well have gotten a boost last week with the announcement that Viola Davis would be campaigned for a Supporting Actress nomination for Fences).  Capably offering solid support for Adams is Jeremy Renner.  Renner was profiled recently as the focus of this featurette at Collider.



VIEWS OF MANCHESTER

The Playlist passed along a couple of clips from Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea earlier this week including this 38 second clip that introduces one of the best acted scenes from any film this year.  At this point, I am all about a nomination for Best Supporting Actress for Michelle Williams and the win.  Casey Affleck is tremendous in the scene as well, but Williams...oh my.  

Here's the clip via YouTube:

The second clip and story can be found via this link to The Playlist.

That will wrap it for this Thursday.  More for your perusal next Monday.  Have a good weekend friends.


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