The Force Dimmed This Week / The FAC Updates Best Picture and Director / Scene Work from Manchester by the Sea

It's Thursday...the last one of 2016...aren't you glad?

THE FORCE DIMMED THIS WEEK

Carrie Fisher at this year's Telluride Film Festival

I'm not sure I can add anything new or worthy to the outpouring of grief and remembrances at the Tuesday passing of Carrie Fisher.  I tweeted Tuesday my appreciation to the Telluride Film Festival because they had made it possible for an old Star Wars fan to be in the same room with Carrie with the inclusion of Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds.  The documentary was excellent and it was a once-in-a-lifetime treat to get to hear Carrie and her brother Todd talk about the film and their lives.

I also wanted to thank directors Fisher Stevens and Alexis Bloom (as I did in person in T-ride) for bringing this story to us.  Bright Lights is set to screen on HBO sometime early in 2017.

Carrie was 60 when she died Tuesday.  I'm a 59 year old man.  That kind of sudden reminder of mortality will jolt a guy.  2016 seems to have been full of more than its share of greatness leaving us.  Ali, Bowie, Prince...so many others.

I have talked with a couple of friends about the notion that we're experiencing what seems like more deaths of more culturally significant people than is normal.  I have a theory about why it seems that way.

I am at the tail end of the baby boomer generation and my theory suggests that my generation, and the generations that have come after, are more susceptible to mass grief in these moments as we are generations for whom being immersed in popular culture is so much easier and, largely expected, as a part of of our normal daily routines and discourse.

The rise of television in the 60's and then the computer revolution seems to have created more pop culture icons and have made them all far more accessible.  The rise of music videos in the 80's and the freedom to download popular music from your desktop is another component of this. As a result, those pop icons are much a more integral part of our lives than they have been for previous generations. Thus, we feel that crushing sense of loss more frequently for more figures than was possible for those that preceded us.

I think the addition of video, the fact that we can see the people that we admire and that enthrall us, has made it all the more dramatic.  The expansion in my lifetime from a television that gave someone three channels to the multiplicity of delivery mechanisms for pop culture that we have now has magnified this.

And there are just more of us.  It's a matter of sheer numbers.  The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there are now 319 million of us.  The 1960 census had our population at 181 million.  Add those demographics to the explosion of access and it becomes another factor in this theory.

So my theory goes.  The hell of it is that we'd better get used to years like 2016 because, if my theory is anywhere close to right... all of our years to come will feel like 2016...grim, I know.

Or maybe that's all just baby boomer self-centeredness.  Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass.

Nevertheless, as a final exhibit, your honors, look at the flood of grief and outpouring of love that has happened over and over again in 2016 and, what seems to me, a loud and constant collective plea that this year limp to a conclusion.  It overwhelms.

In closing, thanks to Carrie for being a giant part of endless hours of fascination and diversion and for proving this past September that she was every bit the bright, fierce and funny woman that I had thought she was.  And, again, thanks to the TFF #43 programmers for making those moments happen.

The force dimmed this week.

I have selected a few posts that went up this week memorializing Ms. Fisher.  They are linked here:

From Telluride regular Leonard Maltin

From the Staff at RogerEbert.com

From Liz Shannon Miller of Indiewire

And an unpublished interview from October with Greg Ellwood from The Playlist

Finally, the IMDb page for Bright Lights


ADDENDUM:  As I'm sure you heard last night, Carrie's mother and entertainment legend Debbie Reynolds died yesterday.  It's just heart breaking and adds another layer of poignancy to what we were a part of this past Labor Day weekend.



THE FAC UPDATES BEST PICTURE AND BEST DIRECTOR

We're three weeks passed the last BP and BD FAC update (it was Dec. 8) so I thought that a current feel for where the Oscar experts think those two races are would be a good idea before we turn the calendar over to 2017.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (2)

3) Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Hell or High Water (5)

5) Fences (4)

6) Arrival (8)

7) Lion (6)

8) Hidden Figures (NR)

9) Hacksaw Ridge (12)

10) Silence (7)

11) Jackie (11)

12) Sully (9)

Hot: Arrival, Hidden Figures, Hacksaw Ridge

Not: Silence, Sully, Loving

On the Cusp: Loving

Comment:  I think Silence may be in a stronger position than some because of where Scorsese ranks on the Best Directing chart (see below).  There does seem to have been a flutter in support for La La Land at the top spot due to its lack of a Best Ensemble nomination from the SAG Awards but not enough to remove it from a still solid hold on that position.  Moonlight and Manchester are bunched very tightly and the distance between the top three and the next film (Hell or High Water...a great story in its rise as awards season has progressed) is substantial.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

5) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (6)

6) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)

7) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)

8) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (10)

9) Garth Davis/Lion (8)

10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (7)

Hot: Gibson and Mackenzie

Not: Larrain and Jeff Nichols/Loving

On the Cusp: Nichols and Clint Eastwood/Sully

Comment"  The top four stay the same over the last three weeks.  Villenueve and Washington swap spots,  Chazelle, Jenkins and Lonergan are very tightly bunched.

SCENE WORK FROM MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

Michelle Williams and Casey Affleck in a clip from Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea (from YouTube)

The Wrap recently talked to actress Michelle Williams about her role in Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea.  Williams is a likely Oscar nominee next month for her work in the film and she should be.  She and acting partner Casey Affleck provide one of the most emotionally honest and effective scenes in any film of this year as a part of the film.  The Wrap talked to Williams about the film and about that scene in particular in this story posted yesterday.

Admittedly, I haven't seen Viola Davis who is everyone's front runner for Best Supporting Actress this year in Fences but she's got a high bar to get over in Williams' performance.  

Manchester by the Sea is in theaters now.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

The Best Picture Race at the Holiday Break / TFF #43 Directors on Their Films

Good Monday world, if you celebrated Christmas, I hope it was good.  If you're celebrating Hanukkah, I hope it is good.

THE BEST PICTURE RACE AT THE HOLIDAY BREAK

As we move past Christmas and through the rest of Hanukkah toward New Year's Day, here's a quick look at the two broadest measures of Oscar sentiment for Best Picture.  By that I mean a look at Movie City News' Gurus of Gold and The Gold Derby.

MCN's Gurus currently have four Telluride films in the top five potential nominees for Best Picture: La La Land at #1, Moonlight at #2, Manchester by the Sea at #3 and Arrival at #5.  Additionally, Clint Eastwood's Sully sits at what would be the #13 spot.  The highest ranked non-Telluride film is Denzel Washington's Fences at #4.

The complete holiday Gurus of Gold Best Picture chart is here.

Meanwhile, The Gold Derby has La La Land on top at 9 to 2, Manchester second at 13 to 2, Moonlight third at odds of 7 to 1.  Arrival, Silence, Lion and Hacksaw Ridge are all tied at fifth with odds of 14 to 1.

Complete odds from The Gold Derby are linked here.


TFF #43 DIRECTORS ON THEIR FILMS

Damien Chazelle/La La Land from Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net: Interview

Barry Jenkins/Moonlight from Greg Tate/The Village Voice: Profile

Maren Ade/Toni Erdmann from Esther Zuckerman/The A.V. Club: Interview


That's it for a truncated holiday edition of MTFB/FAC.  I'll have more later this week on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

The Screenplay Races After Category Reassignment / Critics Loved Telluride Films / Talking Toni Erdmann

It is Thursday and welcome to it.


THE SCREENPLAY RACES AFTER CATEGORY RE-ASSIGNMENT

We found out a week ago that the scripts for Moonlight and Loving that we had been thinking would be in the Original Screenplay category for Oscar consideration will instead be classified as Adapted Screenplays and I thought at the time that the re-classification would turn the screenplay categories inside out.  The FAC for screenplays bears that supposition out.  See below.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (which includes Moonlight and Loving for the first time)

1) Moonlight (NR)
2) Fences (1)
3) Arrival (2)
4) Lion (4)
5) Silence (3)

6) Hidden Figures (6)
7) Loving (NR)
8) Sully (5)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
10) Nocturnal Animals (8)

Hot: Moonlight, Loving, Hacksaw Ridge
Not: Sully, Nocturnal Animals, Love and Friendship, Elle, Live by Night
On the Cusp: Love and Friendship
Comment:  The addition of Moonlight and Loving have altered the Adapted Screenplay race in a fundamental way.  The last time we checked the screenplay categories Moonlight was the #2 Original Screenplay candidate.  The Moonlight lead in the FAC is by a single pint over Fences.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (3)
3) Hell or High Water (4)
4) The Lobster (8)
5) 20th Century Women (6)

6) Captain Fantastic (9)
7) Jackie (5)
8) Zootopia (NR)
9) Miss Sloane (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)

Hot: The Lobster, 20th Century Women, Captain Fantastic, Miss Sloane, Zootopia
Not: Jackie
On the Cusp: Toni Erdmann
Comment: The Lobster, 20th Century Women and Capt. Fantastic really benefited from the Moonlight/Loving move.


CRITICS LOVED TELLURIDE FILMS IN 2016

Indiewire surveyed 200+ critics to determine the collectively best received films and performances of 2016 and TFF #43 was ridiculously well represented in every category that Indiewire polled for.

Here are Telluride specific results for each category:

Best Film: 1) Moonlight, 2) Manchester by the Sea, 3) La La Land, 4) Toni Erdmann, 8) Arrival, 27) Things to Come, 45) Fire at Sea, 47) Neruda

Best Direction: 1) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight. 2) Damien Chazelle/La La, 3) Maren Ade/Toni Erdmann, 4) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester

Best Actress: 2) Sandra Huller/Toni Erdmann, 4) Emma Stone/La La

Best Actor: 1) Casey Affleck/Manchester, 4) Peter Simonscheck/Toni Erdmann

Best Supporting Actress: 2) Michelle Williams/ Manchester, 3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight, Lucas Hedges/Manchester, 5) Trevante Rhodes/Moonlight

Best Documentary: 6) Fire at Sea

Best Undistributed Film: 6) Una

Best Screenplay: 1) Manchester, 2) Moonlight

Best Score: 2) La La, 3) Moonlight, 4) Arrival

Best Cinematography: 1) Moonlight, 2) La La Land, 3) Arrival

Best Editing: 1) Moonlight, 3) La La Land

The complete poll results are here.

Analysis of the results of the poll are here.


TALKING TONI ERDMANN

Slant Magazine posted an interview this week with Toni Erdmann Writer/director Maren Ade and actress Sandra Huller as they talk about the film that is the likely front runner for the Best Foreign Language Oscar.  You can find that interview here.


That's it for this Thursday.  More to come on Boxing Day (Monday).


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

The FAC Assesses Support / Shortlists / Berlin 2017 Begins Revealing

Good Monday everyone and welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  I hope everyone enjoyed and survived their weekend.

THE FAC ASSESSES SUPPORT

Supporting Acting categories that is.  The last FAC look at the Supporting races was a month ago (Nov. 17) and a lot has changed since then on the men's side.  The women's side is remarkably stable. Let's take a look at the latest assessment...

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9)

Hot: Shannon
Not: Mirren
On the Cusp: Lily Gladstone/Certain Women
Comment:  As I wrote above, a very stable category over the past month with no additions pr deletions from the top ten and only minor movement among them.  Viola Davis is clearly the prohibitive favorite.  It increasingly seems that the only person with a chance to pull the upset is Michelle Williams who has taken a number of critic's prizes in the category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR)
10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8)

Hot: Foster, Costner and Ogata who jump into the top ten for the first time this season.
Not: Eckhart, and Stephen Henderson, Liam Neeson and Peter Saarsgard who dropped out of the top ten over the past month.
On the Cusp; Ralph Fiennes/A Bigger Splash
Comment: Ali has become a juggernaut of sorts as he has won critic's prize after critic's prize for his work in Moonlight.  He's not as prohibitive a favorite as Davis is among the women but he's getting there.

Thursday...a look at the screenplay categories and we'll measure the effect of Moonlight and Loving being moved from the Original to the Adapted category.


SHORTLISTS



The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences narrowed a number of categories this past week and those decisions had immediate ramifications for films that played at Telluride in September.

For example, the Foreign Language field was pared down to nine films:

Australia: Tanna
Canada: It's Only the End of the World
Denmark: Land of Mine
Germany: Toni Erdmann
Iran: The Salesman
Norway: The King's Choice
Russia: Paradise
Sweden: A Man Called Ove
Switzerland: My Life as a Zucchini

The field includes only one T-ride title-and possibly the ultimate favorite for the trophy-Toni Erdmann.  Left off were both Neruda and Fire at Sea which played TFF #43 and were thought to be serious players for a FLF Oscar nomination.  The final five nominees will be announced Jan. 24th.

Coverage of the shortlist announcement is here from:

Awards Daily

Gold Derby

Indiewire

Deadline

Awards Watch

Also, The Academy pared down the list of films still eligible for the Visual Effects nomination and Telluride still has a player in that race as Denis Villenueve's Arrival was named one of the ten films still under consideration.  Having a Telluride film in contention for the Visual Effects Oscar is a rare but not unheard of occurrence (Gravity was nominated and won in 2013).

Entertainment Weekly has the story which includes all of the films still alive in addition to Arrival.

Additionally, The Oscar Documentary shortlist was announced last week.  Among the 15 films making the shortlist were  a number that screened at TFF #43.  The Eagle Huntress, The Ivory Game and Fire at Sea made the list that will be whittled to five films on Jan. 24th.

The New York Times  has coverage here of the announcement.


BERLIN 2017 BEGINS REVEALING

We heard this week a few of the titles that will debut at the Berlin International Film Festival which runs Feb. 9-19, 2017.

Here's why that matters to readers of this space.  You can make a safe bet that a couple of Berlin titles make their way to Telluride in nine months.  Last year, for example, Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come and Gianfranco's Fire at Sea both premiered at Berlin and then made the trip to the San Juans. In 2015 Taxi and 45 Years did the same thing.  So, we can cast a glance at the few announced films from this week and pick out some films that make the most sense for a Telluride play and there are a few that have some characteristics (i.e. directors that have had films play TFF in the past) that make them prime suspects:

The Party/Sally Potter (TFF 2012- Ginger and Rosa)
Spoor/Angnieska Holland (TFF 2013-Burning Bush, TFF 2011-In Darkness)
The Other Side of Hope/Aki Kaurismaki (TFF 2011-Le Havre)
A Fantastic Woman/Sebastian Lelio (TFF 2013-Gloria)

Coverage of the Berlin reveals is here from:

Variety

The Playlist

The Film Stage


That's Monday's post.  Come back for more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

SAG Acting Awards Nominations are 40% Telluride / Oscar Changes the Lay of the Land / Norman Makes an Appearance

Good Thursday film fans...

SAG AWARDS NOMINATIONS ARE 40% TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence for 2016 yesterday morning.  Actors from TFF #43 films were named in 10 of the 25 slots.  SAG nominates the traditional Actresses and Actors in Lead and Supporting roles in addition to their Ensemble nomination and stunt cast nominations.

Here's what went down vis-a-vis Telluride among those nominations yesterday.

Manchester by the Sea-4: Ensemble, Casey Affleck/Male Lead, Michelle Williams/Female Supporting, Lucas Hedges/Male Supporting.

Moonlight-3: Ensemble, Naomie Harris/Female Supporting, Mahershala Ali/Male Supporting

La La Land-2: Emma Stone/Female Lead, Ryan Gosling/Male Lead

Arrival: Amy Adams/Female Lead.

Complete nominations:

Ensemble: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester, Moonlight

Female Lead: Amy Adams/Arrival, Emily Blunt/Girl on the Train, Natalie Portman/Jackie, Emma Stone/La La Land and Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Male Lead: Casey Affleck/Manchester, Ryan Gosling/La La, Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge, Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington/Fences

Female Supporting: Viola Davis/Fences, Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Nicole Kidman/Lion, Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures and Michelle Williams/Manchester

Male Supporting: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight, Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water, Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins, Lucas Hedges/Manchester, Dev Patel/Lion

Thoughts:  It seems to me that Hidden Figures and Fences pick up some heat for a Best Picture nomination and that 20th Century Women and Loving are losing steam.  I think her nomination is terrific news for Amy Adams.  Meanwhile, Tom Hanks campaign for Sully looks like it's in trouble.


Category by category:

Ensemble: The inclusion of Captain Fantastic was a bit of a stunner.  La La Land's exclusion doesn't seem to me to be that problematic.  It's not an ensemble piece so I don't think even calling it a snub would be accurate but a number of the big time Oscar pros think that it IS a deal.  Their point being that its been over 20 years since a Best Picture winner emerged without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Best Actress looks like the category where the most weirdness occurred.  As of last Monday's FAC post only 2 of the 5 "probable" Best Actress Oscar nominees made the SAG list yesterday: Stone and Portman.  Adams was listed at #6 and Streep #7 last week and Emily Blunt was nowhere to be found. Not included on the SAG list but on the latest FAC are Ruth Negga/Loving (#4), Anette Bening/20th Century Women (#3) and Emily Blunt/Girl-Train who had dropped out of The FAC top ten.

Best Actor: Kind of a bit of a surprise that Mortensen is a SAG nominee.  He edges out Joel Edgerton who I had as the #5 guy in the latest FAC.

Best Supporting Actress: #6 on the FAC Octavia Spencer is in for #5 Greta Gerwig.

Best Supporting Actor: #6 Lucas Hedges is in for the FAC's #5 Liam Neeson.

The SAG is the first of the guilds to weigh in with other major guilds still to come: Producers, Directors and Writers.

I'll be interested to see if Wednesday's announcement moves the needle for some Oscarologists in the next few days.

The next big precursors isn't until the Writers Guild nominations on Jan. 4.  The editors Guild announces their nominations the day before.

Here's the complete list of nominees for film and television from SAG-AFTRA.

Additionally, here's analysis from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.


OSCAR CHANGES THE LAY OF THE LAND

In the space of the three days since MTFB/FAC's last post, a couple of Oscar racers got some big changes as a result of determinations made concerning eligibility.

AMPAS has determined that both Moonlight and Loving, which have been thought to be competing in the Original Screenplay category will. in fact by relegated to the Adapted category.  That probably makes Moonlight the favorite for that trophy on Oscar night.

Coverage of the switch of categories is here from:

The Los Angeles Times

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly


Meanwhile, as seems to happen every year, there were some surprise decisions about Original Scores and there eligibility including the decision that Arrival's score is not eligible for Oscar consideration nor is the score from Manchester by the Sea.

Here's reportage from Variety , Indiewire and Entertainment Weekly.


NORMAN MAKES AN APPEARANCE

I saw three films at TFF #43 that have really flying under the radar since Labor Day:  Una (still without U.S. distribution), Wakefield and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.

Now, the Richard Gere starrer (Norman) looks like its peeking its head out as we saw the arrival yesterday of a teaser trailer for the film.

You'll find the teaser as well as coverage of the release for the film from Sony Pictures Classics in these dispatches from The Playlist as well as this story from my friend Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net



That'll be a wrap for this second full week of December.  Next Monday's post will include an update of the Supporting Acting categories.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

The FAC Update on Best Actress and Actor / Critic's Choice Awards / New York Critics Online / Golden Globe Nominations On the Way

Here's another edition of MTFB and The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the second Monday in December...we don't believe these results have been hacked by the Russians...


THE FAC UPDATE ON BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's the latest look at what The FAC metric says the best guesses are for Best Actress and Actor at this point in mid-December prior to last night's Critics' Choice and today's Golden Globe nominations.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Being/20th Century Women (3)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (7)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
7) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)

8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (9)

9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (8)

10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (10)

Hot: Huppert

Not: Streep

On the Cusp: Jennifer Lawrence/Passengers

Comment: the top four remain exactly the same and the top ten remain the top ten with a bit of jostling.  I'm getting a vibe that Ruth Negga (as well as Joel Edgerton) and the while Loving campaign might be waning.

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (2)

2) Denzel Washington/Fences (1)

3) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)

4) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)

5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (7)

7) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (6)

8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)

10) Adam Driver/Paterson (NR)

Hot: Driver

Not: Matthew McConnaughey/Gold who dropped put of the top ten.

On the Cusp: Michael Keaton/The Founder

Comment: See above Re: Loving and Edgerton.  The flip flopping between Washington and Affleck is likely to play right through Oscar night.  That's your race.

At this point TFF #43 looks to have highlighted four Oscar nominated lead performances and possibly five depending on whether Amy Adams can sneak in.  I still think she has a relatively good shot.

CRITICS' CHOICE AWARDS

Last night the Broadcast Film Critics Association named its winners for film awards for 2016.  La La Land was a huge winner collecting eight trophies including: Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (tie),  Best Young Actor/Lucas Hedges, Cinematography, Production Design, Film Editing, Song (City of Stars) and Score.

Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck won Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay (tie).

Moonlight won for Mahershala Ali as Best Supporting Actor and Ensemble.

Arrival won Best Adapted Screenplay and Best SciFi/Horror Film.

All told, TFF #43 films bagged 14 Critics Choice Awards.

Complete coverage is here from:

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly

The Playlist

NEW YORK ONLINE CRITICS

The New York Critics Circle Online named their "Best of " for 2016 yesterday and the results were as follows:

Meanwhile, Moonlight dominated the New York Film Critics Online awards that were voted on yesterday with five wins.

Moonlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Cinematography
Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck won Best actor (again)
La La Land won Best Use of Music

Here's coverage of the NYFCO results from Awards Watch 

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

Here are this morning's Golden Globes nominations totals by film:

La La Land 7
Moonlight 6
Manchester By The Sea 5
Florence Foster Jenkins 4
Lion 4
Hacksaw Ridge 3
Hell or High Water 3
Nocturnal Animals 3
20th Century Women 2
Arrival 2
Deadpool 2
Elle 2
Fences 2
Hidden Figures 2
Moana 2
Loving 2
Sing 2
Captain Fantastic 1
Divines 1
The Edge of Seventeen 1
Gold 1
Jackie 1
Kubo And The Two Strings 1
The Lobster 1
Miss Sloane 1
My Life As A Zucchini 1
Neruda 1
Rules Don’t Apply 1
The Salesman 1
Sing Street 1
Toni Erdmann 1
Trolls 1
War Dogs 1
Zootopia 1

La La Land gathers nominations for Picture (Comedy/Musical), Director, Screenplay, Actor (C/M), Actress (C/M), Score and Song.

Moonlight landed nominations for Picture (Drama), Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and  Score.

Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Picture (Drama), Director, Actor, Supporting Actress and  Screenplay.

Arrival was nominated for Best Actress and Score.

Neruda and Toni Erdmann were nominated for Best Foreign  Langauage Film.

In all Telluride 2016 films earned 22 Glden Globe nominations.  

Complete coverage can ne found at The Golden Globes official website.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.

The FAC Updates Picture and Director / An Early Peek at TFF #44 Possibilities / AFI Best Films List

Welcome to Thursday...

THE FAC UPDATES BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTOR OSCAR CANDIDATES

Our last look at the Best Picture and Director categories for The Film Awards Clearinghouse came on Nov. 3 and the intervening month has seen some changes.  Here's a look at where those two categories stand as we end the first week of December.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (4)

3) Manchester by the Sea (2)

4) Fences (3)

5) Hell or High Water (12)

6) Lion (5)

7) Silence (6)

8) Arrival (8)

9) Sully (10)

10) Loving (9)

11) Jackie (7)

12) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)

Hot: Moonlight, Jell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge

Not: Jackie, Live by Night

On the Cusp: Hidden Figures

Comment:  The Oscar experts can say that the early critical awards don't matter in as far as Oscar is concerned all the want, but what else explains the bump for Moonlight and the sky-rocketing fortunes of David Mackenzie's Hell or High Water.  Those experts have been affected by something over the last month.  Meanwhile, Ben Affleck's Live by Night has taken a nose dive.

Telluride looks good for 3-5 Best Picture nominations.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (3)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (2)

4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

5) Denzel Washington/Fences (5)

6) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (6)

7) Pablo Larrian/Jackie (7)

8) Garth Davis/Lion (8)

9) Jeff Nichols/ Loving (9)

10) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (NR)

Hot: Mackenzie

Not: Clint Eastwood/Sully

On the Cusp: Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Comment: A very stable category over the last month.  Scorsese's spot at #4 might indicate that Silence is in better shape for a Best Pic nomination than its #7 rank would indicate.

Telluride sitting at 3-4 Best Directing nominations.




AN EARLY PEEK AT TFF#44 POSSIBILITIES

Each year any number of film outlets lay out their "most anticipated" lists for the following year. Normally those get published at the beginning of January and provide the first glimpse of what films lie ahead and, as a result give some clues about films that might make The SHOW.

This year, for whatever reason, The Playlist has jumped on the topic early.., a month early.  They posted their 100 Most Anticipated 2017 films on Tuesday.  It caught me a bit off guard and I thought that I might just pin the article and come back to it in a month or so I thought, "Why not?".

Consequently, I prepped my commentary Tuesday and Wednesday.  One of the things that I did was to look back at the past three years of the very same lists to see how much it corresponds to what actually happened over Labor Day weekend.  I wasn't very good at picking films from last year's list but was better in 2015 and 2014.  Here's what I mean:

Last year, from the 100 films that The Playlist mentioned, seven made the TFF lineup: Neruda, Una, Things to Come, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Arrival (which was titled The Story of Your Life at the time).  The only film among them that I named: Neruda.  Just for hoots, I went back and discovered that I first mentioned both La La Land and Moonlight for the first time in March.  Manchester had already been on the MTFB radar the year before.

In 2015 the list included: Carol, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette and Spotlight which I included on my Telluride-possibles as well as Room, 45 Years and Steve Jobs which I did not list.

In 2014 the list included: The Lunchbox, Mommy, Tracks and Wild that I didn't name for TFF but did include three films that I did pick: Birdman, Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner.

So, the conclusion is that somewhere on the list for 2017 are probably 7-8 titles that make the TFF #44 program and I'll get about three of them right out of the list of 20 guesses I have below.  Not the best odds, but I'm shooting in the dark here.

Here are the films listed by their position on The Playlist's list:

98- Redoubtable-Michel Hazanavicius' take of the life of film legend Jean-Luc Godard.
92- A Fantastic Woman- from Sebastian Lelio who brought his Gloria to T-ride in 2013.
90-The Lovers- from A24
85- Battle of the Sexes- Billy Jean King versus Bobby Riggs with Emma Stone and Steve Carell.  Produced by Danny Boyle
76- Lady Bird- The Playlist suggests Telluride as a possibility.
64- Wind River-from The Weinstein Company, because I think they'll be back at TFF.
62-Tully- Could Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody return?
57- Mektoub is Mektoub- Abdellatif Kechiche's follow up to Blue is the Warmest Color.
55- The Current War- Weinsteins
51-The Other Side of Hope- Maybe Aki Kauismaki (Le Harve/TFF 2011) returns.
41- Molly's Game-Could Aaron Sorkin return to T-ride with his directing debut?   It might depend on how he felt about the reception for Steve Jobs.  Maybe this gets Jessica Chastain into town.
33- Mudbound- Playlist mentions it as a possibility for Telluride.
28- Lean on Pete Andrews-Andrew Haigh could return after the success he had at T-ride with 45 Years.
25- Downsizing- Alexander Payne with Matt Damon starring.  Will likely start next summer's first "Ten Bets" list at the number one spot.
24- Loveless- Andrey Zvyagintsev had a great Telluride bow with his Leviathan in 2014.  Could portend a return.
21- Suburbicon- George Clooney directing.  I've always thought that Clooney was a good bet to come back to TFF.  He seemed to have such a good time there when he received a tribute in 2009 (Up in the Air).  This could be the ticket.
17-The Shape of Water- I've thought since Alfonso Cuaron made the trip with Gravity in 2013 that we'd probably see Guillermo Del Toro someday.  Del Toro is the third of the three amigos, Alejandro Inarritu being the other and Inarritu has practically been a Telluride citizen over the years (Babel, Biutiful, Birdman).  The Shape of Water seems like the kind of smaller Del Toro that could crack the TFF lineup.
16- Mother- Darren Aronofsky directs.  His success with Black Swan in 2010 makes a return a possibility.
15- You Were Never Really Here- Will Lynne Ramsay return after her success in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin?
9- Wonderstruck-Todd Haynes.  Past Telluride's : I'm Not There (2007) and Carol (2015).  Please return and bring Julianne Moore with you.
5- Happy End- Michael Haneke- Cache, The White Ribbon and Amour have all played T-ride so this seems likely.

The complete ;list of 100 films plus some bonus titles is here from The Playlist.

Although, I feel like I've detected a trend last couple of years toward shying away from this kind of obviousness in the program's curation.  Maybe it's just me, but no Audiard/Dheepan in 2015, for example.

One other note...The Playlist's #1 most anticipated is the announced Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel Day Lewis collaboration on a film set in the fashion world of 1950's New York.  Yes, it will be my most anticipated as well but I'll actually be surprised if it's ready in time for a 2017 date.  My guess would be a Cannes 2018 play with perhaps a NYFF screening and maybe an AFI screening as well.  I want to be wrong on all counts and see it in Telluride in 9 months.


AFI NAMES 2016'S BEST FILMS

Announced this afternoon are the American Film Institutes's Best Films of 2016:

Arrival Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water La La Land Manchester Moonlight Silence Sully Zootopia

It's an impressive showing for Telluride as five of the ten films played this year's fest: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Sully.

You can find more about the AFI list here from Indiewire.

Otherwise, back here on Monday...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.