Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best Telluride predictor I know."
-Sasha Stone, Awards Daily
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Welcome my friends...to the machine...for Friday, June 30, 2017.
THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #44
Well, it's arrived. Since 2011, I have been formally taking a stab at what films will be at The SHOW with what I call "Ten Bets". For what will be the seventh year running, those begin appearing the last week of June and will run on a weekly, updated basis until the day before the lineup is actually announced-probably Aug. 31.
As to its success...well, this first one you need to take with a gigantic grain of sodium chloride. The success rate of the first Ten Bets each year is less than impressive.
The average over these past six years 5.5 but as you can see, the last two years have been particularly challenging. Last year's first list only correctly named Moonlight, Toni Erdmann and Fire at Sea.
Okay then, enough disclaiming...here's your first "Ten Bets" for 2017:
1) Loveless
2) A Fantastic Woman
3) Wonderstruck
4) Visages/Villages
5) The Florida Project
6) Downsizing
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) 120 BPM
9) The Rider
10) Battle of the Sexes
The Next Bets, in no particular order of likelihood: Happy End, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Current War, Loving Vincent, Lean on Pete, Redoubtable, Spoor.
THE DISTRIBUTORS: WARNERS AND PARAMOUNT
Of the "major" film studios the two that have had the biggest footprint at Telluride over the past few years are Warners and Paramount.
Warners has particularly become a consistent presence in the past five years:
2012: Argo
2013; Gravity, Prisoners
2104:
2015: Black Mass
2016: Sully
Certainly Argo and Gravity worked out well for them both in terms of financial success and Oscar success. Less so for Black Mass and Sully. Still, you'd have to think that there's a least a decent shpt that Warners returns in 2017 with one film, So what's in the Warners cupboard that has Telluride potential?
The big question, and maybe the only question regarding Warners this fall and Telluride is: Do they bring and does Telluride want Denis Villenueve's Blade Runner 2049?
I've been grappling with that question for most of the spring and into the summer. The case for it is that it is from Warners and it is directed by Denis Villenueve and he and Telluride have a long and pleasant history:
1998-August 32nd on Earth
2009-Incendies
2013-Prisoners
2016-Arrival
And as I have said a number of times, the inclusion in recent years of Gravity and Arrival make a pretty good empirical evidence for a film like Blade Runner 2049 to make the TFF lineup.
Finally, I suspect that BR 2049 is going to make a big splash when it opens Oct. 6th. Too many people have wanted anxiously for so long for the sequel to the 1982 original and I believe Villenueve is going to make the material sing.
But...
I still am not completely sold on the idea. Had anyone been suggesting this style of film for Telluride prior to 2013 I almost certainly would have said "no way" with Villenueve attached or not. And Villenueve's track record does show a pattern of gaps between Telluride appearances. So BR 2049 is no cinch for a T-ride play.
Chances: 30%
And at this point, if BR 2049 does NOT play, I doubt Warners has a film at the fest in 2017.
Paramount Pictures has a spotty Telluride resume:
Arrival played in 2016
Anomalisa in 2015
Labor Day 2013
Up in the Air 2009
Paramount has, in my estimation, three films that they could be interested in bringing to Telluride:
Alexander Payne's Downsizing
George Clooney's Suburbicon
Darren Aronfsky's mother!
All three film makers have been at Telluride within the last few years. Payne has become a regular and as you can see from the Ten Bets above, I expect him back again this year with Downsizing.
Clooney was in Telluride in 2011 with Payne's The Descendants. Clooney was a tribute recipient that year but hasn't returned.
Aronofsky sneaked Black Swan at the fest in 2010.
Chances:
Downsizing 75%
Suburbicon 30%
mother! 25%
BREATHE WILL OPEN BFI-LONDON FEST
We saw the first signs of Andy Serkis' directing debut yesterday with the trailer for Breathe and the announcement from the BFI-London Film Fest that it would open there on Oct. 4th as an European Premiere meaning that it will world premiere somewhere previously not on the European continent. That almost certainly means a play at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.
My bet, at the moment is Toronto.
The film is being distributed by Bleeker Street Media which partnered with Netflix in 2015 to release Beasts of No Nation.
Here's the trailer for Breathe from YouTube:
And that's a wrap for Friday. Enjoy your weekend.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
One of the recent hard chargers at Telluride in terms of distribution firms that have made a splash is the Cohen Media Group.
CMG's history at Telluride:
2012-The Attack
2014-Magician
2015-Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2016-Journey Through French Cinema
And CMG has a number of possible players for the 2017 edition of the Telluride Film Festival:
Francois Ozon's L'amant Double
Michel Hazanavicius' Redoubtable
Christian Carion's Mon Garcon
and even Pappi Corsicato's Julian Schnabel: A Private Portrait.
Of the four, the chances for L'amant Double and Redoubtable are virtually indistinguishable. Both played Cannes with modset-to-good reviews. Redoubtable's metascore-67, L'amant Double's 64. Both directors have made a splash at previuos Tellurides. Hazanavicius being more notable with Oscar Best Picture winner The Artist in 2011. Ozon was at Telluride last year with Frantz.
I'm givng Redoubtable a slight edge with a 50% chance to SHOW. L'Amant Double goes in at 45%.
As to Carion's Mon Garcon, I include it here as CMG is calling it a 2017 release and Carion's 2009 TFF film, Farewell, is enough to make me think it should be considered. Give it a 30% chance.
FInally, despite the fact that Cosicato's Julian Schnabel documentary has played in the U.S. at Tribeca, it might end up at Telluride anyway. The inclusion of Tribeca films in the T-ride lineup isn't frequent but has happened more than once: Peggy Guggenheim in 2015, Keep On Keepin' On in 2014 and My Dior in 2013.
Schnabel's poster for TFF #29
Additionally, Schnabel has had a TFF history as poster artist in 2002 and presenting his fantastic The Diving Bell and the Butterfly in 2007. So I wouldn't rule this film out even though it played Tribeca.
CIRCUIT BREAKER FALL FILM GUESSES #2
A week ago (June 19) I posted the link to Awards Circuit's Circuit Breaker podcast because they included a rundown of some guesses about where films might be headed to film festivals.
This week;s podcast includes another segment about the same topic. The nearly half hour segment includes mentions of a couple of dozen films and those that are mentioned as having some possibility for Telluride (by at least one of the participants) are:
The Darkest Hour
Suburbicon
Downsizing
Battle of the Sexes
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Snowman
Stronger
Here's another installment of my on-going and fairly sporadic review of the history of the Telluride Film Festival. Today a look at #23 which occurred from Aug.30-Sept. 2, 1996.
Guest Director: B. Ruby Rich
Tributes: Shirley MacLaine, Mike Leigh, Alain Cavalier
SHOWS:
Actress
Ayn Rand: A Sense of Life
Beautiful Thing
Ben Johnson: Third Cowboy on the Right
Breaking the Waves
Cardiogram
Carmen's Pure Love
The Cloud Capped Star
Daisies
Drifting Clouds
Fly Away Home
Forgotten Silver
Gabbeh
Irma Vep
Kolya
La Recontre
Le Ciel est a Vous
Le Samuorai
Le Trou
Lillian's Story
Message to Love
Microcosmos
Riot
Secrets and Lies
Self Made Hero
Sling Blade
Swingers
Therese
Twelfth Night
Two Eyes, Twelve Hands
The Unknown
Guests:
Olivier Assasyas
Jacques Audiard
Carroll Ballard
Harry Carey, Jr.
Maggie Cheung
Jon Favreau
Don Hertzfeldt
Werner Herzog
Mike Leigh
Doug Liman
Leonard Maltin
Shirley MacLaine
Trevor Nunn
John Ritter
Stellan Skarsgaard
Billy Bob Thornton
Warwick Thornton
Vince Vaughn
Emily Watson
Of particular note were the short films from Warwick Thornton (Payback, now called From Sand to Celluloid: Payback) and Julie Delpy (Blah Blah Blah) both making their directing debuts and Don Hertzfeldt with his second short (Genre).
That's your Thursday from MTFB.
Come back tomorrow for 2017's first Ten Bets.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Just a quick piece of business here. Recently I posted a story that upset members of the Telluride Film Festival management. I was informed of this privately via email and responded accordingly. In hindsight, the choice to have published the story was unwise.
As a part of my response I privately apologized to members of the Telluride staff. Now, after allowing some time to pass, I also wanted to apologize publicly and in this space to underscore the sincerity of my remorse.
Now, on to today's regularly scheduled post.
THE DISTRIBUTORS: OPEN ROAD FILMS
Open Road Films has had a short but notable presence in Telluride in just the last few years. The company first began business in 2011. In 2014 they brought their first film to Telluride by landing Jon Stewart's directing debut Rosewater. They followed that in 2015 with Tom McCarthy's Spotlight which won the Best Picture Oscar along with another for original screenplay for McCarthy and Josh Singer. The film also had four other nominations.
In 2016 Open Road was represented at Telluride by Ben Younger's Bleed for This.
So, three straight years with a film each year at TFF makes you think there is a very good chance that an Open Road film will make the TFF #44 lineup.
Reviewing their catalogue, it seems that four films could fit into a Labor Day schedule:
Marshall, Home Again, LAbyrinth and Finding Steve McQueen.
Of these, Marshall seems to be the most likely choice. I had the film's first trailer posted here last week. It's scheduled for release on Oct. 13th, right in the thick of prime release territory if you have an eye on awards season. It's focus on a case from the early career of eventual Supreme Court justice Thurgood Marshall seems like material that could be a contender. Give it a 50% chance to play T-ride.
The other three possibilities have a variety of issues that argue against their inclusion in The SHOW.
Home Again stars Reese Witherspoon (directed by Hallie Meyers-Shyre) but its Sept. 8th releases date, though a few days after Telluride's completion, suggests it's unlikely. It is worth noting, however, that Sully actually followed that exact path last year opening on Sept. 9, 2016. Chances: 20%.
LAbyrinth directed by Brad Furman and starring Johnny Depp and Forest Whitaker in a long gestating project about the investigation into the deaths of Tupac Shakur and The Notorious B.I.G. The film is listed by IMDb as being in post-production since February but it doesn't have a release date beyond the generic 2017. Chances: 15%.
Finding Steve McQueen: Directed by Mark Stephen Johnson is listed as being in post-production since last October and feels like a light weight genre piece. Chances: 15%.
IMAGES TEASE
I ran across a couple of images over the past few days from two projects that may pique the interest of Telluride watchers.
I commented not long ago that Amazon Studios decision to date Woody Allen's latest film, Wonder Wheel, for Dec.1st might mean that we need to take it seriously as a possible Telluride choice.
Last week, our first image of Kate Winslet in that film emerged via Twitter. Here she is:
In the same vein, we got a glimpse this week of Jessica Chastain on a poster for Xavier Dolan's The Death and Life of John F. Donovan:
Donovan is expected in 2018.
That's your post for Tuesday.
There's your MTFB for Monday, June 26, 2017. More tomorrow...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Welcome back from your weekend. Mine was spent in the land of Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul...
THE DISTRIBUTORS: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS
Among the more ubiquitous set of distribution firms at Telluride over the past several years has been the combination of Sundance Selects and IFC Films.
Over the run of more than a dozen years, the two partnered firms have racked up an impressive number of films that have screened at Telluride:
2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2015: 45 Years
2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield
This year, between the two companies there appear to be four films that might be in play:
Perhaps the most likely is Jonas Capignano's A Ciambra. The film played Cannes in the Director's Fortnight section and was, in part, executive produced by Martin Scorsese who has frequently been represented at T-ride in recent years as an executive producer. Chances: 45%.
Also in play is Claire Denis' Bright Sunshine In which also played Cannes' Director's Fortnight. Denis, to the best of my knowledge has never played in the San Juans. That could change this year. Chances: 40%.
The Death of Stalin from Veep and Into the Loop creator Armando Iannucci. I'd love this as an addition to the TFF #44 lineup because of Iannucci and the potential for this crazy good cast (Steve Buscemi, Olga Kurylenko, Andrea Riseborough, Jeffrey Tambor, Michael Palin) to do something hilarious and magical.
Chances 35%.
Viceroy's House. Played Berlin which usually has a couple of films make the TFF lineup.
Chances: 25%.
BATTLE OF THE SEXES NEW TRAILER
Fresh off of last week's speculation by Deadline's Pete Hammond that he was in the neighborhood of 99% convinced that the Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris film, Battle of the Sexes would play at The SHOW over Labor Day weekend came the news that a new trailer for the film had been released.
That's the second trailer for the film. Here it is via YouTube:
After Hammond's assessment and my own take last week as I began to look at what we can expect from various distributors, in the case of Battle of the Sexes that's Fox Searchlight, it's possible that the film may show up at the end of this week on 2017's first "Ten Bets" for TFF #44. There's your tease for Friday's post.
Links to posts from Friday with coverage of the trailer's release. From First Showing From SlashFilm TRAILER FOR STRONGER ALSO RAISES T-RIDE SPECULATION
Just like the above story, David Gordon Green's Stronger dropped a trailer on Friday. Paul Sheehan, writing at Gold Derby, suggested that the film would likely play fall film fests with Telluride mentioned alongside Venice and Toronto.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
I had Green's Our Brand is Crisis as a possible fest selection back in 2015.
Lionsgate, Roadside Attractions and Saban Films are an affiliated group of companies that have had an interesting and steadily successful run at Telluride over the past few years. Their list of films that have played have featured the following films:
2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy
2015:
2016: La La Land
Lionsgate has Stephen Chbosky's Wonder starring Julia Roberts and David Gordon Green's Stronger with Jake Gyllenhaal which could both be looking at fall film fest slots.
Wonder is based on the novel by R.J. Placio and also features young actor Jacob Tremblay who charmed Telluride in Room in 2015. Stronger is the true life tale of one of the survivors of the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013.
At the moment neither Roadside Attractions or Saban appear to independently have a film that would seem to be a Telluride possible.
Chances:
Wonder 35%
Stronger 30%.
NEW LOOKS AT BLADE RUNNER 2049
We got new glimpses yesterday of Denis Villenueve's Blade Runner 2049. The film still seems like a stretch to me for TFF #44 but not a complete impossibility.
I haven't gotten to a review of distributor Open Road Films yet (and I will eventually) but they made news this week with the release of a trailer for the biopic Marshall. The film follows a crucial event in the life of a young Thurgood Marshall. Chadwick Boseman stars as the young lawyer who would one day sit as a member of the Supreme Court.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
The film is directed by Reginald Hudlin and is set to open on Oct. 13th.
I have linked stories related to the release of the trailer below:
If you're as glued to Twitter as I usually am and you pay attention to Telluride Film news via that media, then you almost certainly already know that Telluride #44 has a Guest Director.
The word came via press release email yesterday that director Joshua Oppenheimer will Guest Direct for the 2017 edition of TFF.
Ironically, I mentioned Oppenheimer's first appearance at Telluride in last Tuesday's post as a part of my TFF history retrospective. Tuesday's review was for the 24th TFF in 1997. Oppenheimer presented The Entire Story of the Louisiana Purchase that year.
Most recently he has presented both The Look of Silence (2014) and The Act of Killing (2012) at the fest.
Here's the full text of the press release from TFF:
BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival, presented by National Film Preserve
LTD., is proud to announce its 2017 Guest Director, Joshua Oppenheimer.The award-winning documentarian is set to select a series of films
to present at the 44th Telluride Film Festival running over Labor Day Weekend,September 1-4, 2017.
Festival organizers annually select one of
the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the
Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in
the Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films
to Telluride. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Oppenheimer’s
film selections, along with the rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept
secret until Opening Day.
“The Guest Director program is
one of the most essential and wonderful parts of our festival,” said
Telluride Film Festival executive director Julie
Huntsinger. “Joshua has been a part of the SHOW with several of the
incredible films he has made in the past, and now as our Guest Director. His
rare combination of intelligence and down-to-earth understanding of humanity
will make for a remarkable presentation of films our audience will not want to
miss. Further gilding the lily, FilmStruck has joined us as the sponsor of this
selection. We are beyond fortunate with this terrific combination of cinematic
genius.”
Filmmaker Joshua Oppenheimer was born in
the US in 1974 and studied filmmaking at Harvard University. Oppenheimer is
best known for The Act of Killing (Telluride 2012) and The Look of Silence
(Telluride 2014). The Act of Killing (2014 Academy Award Nominee for Best
Documentary) was named Film of the Year in 2013 by the Guardian and the Sight
and Sound Film Poll. It won 72 international awards, including a BAFTA, a
European Film Award and an Asia-Pacific Screen Award. The Look of Silence (2016
Academy Award Nominee for Best Documentary) premiered at the Venice Film
Festival, where it won the Grand Jury Prize and the FIPRESCI award, and
went on to receive another 70 prizes, including an Independent Spirit Award,
the IDA Award for Best Documentary Feature, a Gotham Award, and three Cinema
Eye Honors. His early shorts have recently been re-released online and on DVD,
including The Entire History of the Louisiana Purchase, which premiered at
Telluride in 1997. Joshua Oppenheimer was awarded a MacArthur Fellowship in
2014. Oppenheimer is a partner at Final Cut for Real in Copenhagen, and
Artistic Director of the Centre for Documentary and Experimental Film at the
University of Westminster in London.
“You stumble from a cinema into Telluride’s
thin air, touched in ways you never imagined possible,” commented Oppenheimer.
“You turn to a total stranger to share a thought unthinkable only two hours
before. What happened? In the mirror of a great film, you confronted
truths from which you normally avert your eyes. You recognised
yourself in those delicate, mysterious moments that defy words yet
make us human. Telluride's movies are empathy machines, inviting
us to find ourselves in people we’d never otherwise know. Julie
Huntsinger and Tom Luddy’s annual selection is driven by such
curiosity and humanity that you cannot leave Telluride without
feeling the responsibility and pain and love that comes
with compassion. We emerge connected, reminded that self-absorption
ultimately leaves us isolated and fearful. There is no greater privilege
than joining Tom and Julie as this year’s guest director,
sharing with Telluride’s audience the films that give me the greatest
courage, and teach me to practice the widest empathy.”
Past Guest Directors include Volker
Schlöndorff , Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso, Michael Ondaatje,
Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby Rich, Phillip
Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John Simon, Buck Henry,
Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim,G.
Cabrera Infante,Peter Sellars,
Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and SlavojŽižek.
One of the newest distribution companies to the Telluride experience is A24 and though they are new to TFF, relatively speaking, and though they haven't screened a large number of films at the fest, their presence has made a lot of noise, especially the last two years. Here's the entire A24 footprint which only begins its T-ride time in 2012:
2016: Moonlight
2015: Room
2014: _____
2013: Under the Skin
2012: Ginger and Rosa
Brie Larson earned a Best Actress Oscar for 2015's Room and the film was also nominated for Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay.
Then there's last year's Moonlight which picked up three Oscars for Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay. It was also nominated for five others including Direction and Supporting Actress.
That's a very impressive run in an incredibly short time.
My take is that A24 likes getting their product into Telluride and Telluride likes having it there. As you can see, however, the outfit hasn't ever placed more than a single film in a year in their limited time there and, as you can see above, in 2014 A24 wasn't in T-ride at all.
But could this be the year that the firm lands more than a single title?
Here's the rundown of current A24 films that seem to have a shot at Labor Day:
A Prayer Before Dawn/Sauvaire: Played at Cannes as a part of the Midnight Screening program where it got a respectable 6.28 average critical rating according to Reini Urban's compilation of Cannes critics. Chances of it playing seem slight to me. Chances: 15%.
How to Talk to Girls at Parties/Mitchell. Another Cannes presentation shown out of competition that had middling critical reception- 5.61 on the Urban compilation. It could pop at Telluride but I have doubts. Chance: 15%.
The Killing of a Scared Deer/Lanthimos: The third A24 film that played Cannes- in the main competition category where it won Best Screenplay. This coming on the heels of writer/director Yorgos Lanthimos' Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay last year for The Lobster. Although the Urban combo score was 5.96, its Metacritic score was a solid 84. I could actually see this making a play at T-ride. Chances: 50%.
Cannes clip of The Florida Project via YouTube
The Florida Project/Baker: Regular readers of MTFB know that I am high on this film's chances to play Telluride in light of its performance at Cannes. It was the third most widely praised film critically at Cannes in any section with an 8.05 combo rating from Urban and a 91 Metacritic score. Sean Baker grabbed a lot of buzz in 2015 for his Tangerine and I expect A24 is going to be working hard to get Willem Dafoe some awards season attention for Best Supporting Actor. All of that and my intuition makes me think The Florida Project might be heading to Colorado. Chances: 65%.
Woodshock/Mulleavys: The one film on the list that A24 didn't play at Cannes. Kirsten Dunst stars in what looks pretty trippy. At least that's the way the trailer looks:
I think it looks interesting but I also think it's how A24 looks at approaching Telluride now. Chances 20%.
And if you were wondering about the Safdie's Good Time with Robert Pattinson; it's set to open in August.
So, it seems to me that your two best A24 best are The Florida Project and The Killing of a Sacred Deer.
ADDING TO TUESDAY'S FOX SEARCHLIGHT ANALYSIS
I was perusing Nancy Tartiglione's post at Deadline earlier today for nuggets that might have popped up in 20th Century Fox's presentation at CineEurope in Barcelona. A sentence or two caught my eye as FS Exec VP Rebecca Kearey is quoted as suggesting serious festival plays for Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water. Here's the direct quote from the post: Those were joined by Fox Searchlight titles Battle Of The Sexes, Goodbye Christopher Robin , Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape Of Water. Of the latter two, Searchlight EVP of International Marketing & Distribution Rebecca Kearey said they would be playing at many of the fall festivals.
After seeing that, I'm inclined to bump both films' chances of a Telluride play up 5 points from Tuesday's analysis. So Ebbing goes from 40% to 45% and Shape of Water from from 35% to 40%. I'm leaving Battle of the Sexes at 55% and Goodbye Christopher Robin at 45% for now.
Meanwhile, Pete Hammond from Deadline dropped his belief that Battke of the Sexes has, what he calls a 99% chance to play Telluride. He also suggested in a story yesterday his belief that Alexander Payne will have Downsizing at TFF #44. Check out Hammond's story here.
LAST NOTE FOR THURSDAY...
I was reading this story from The Hollywood Reporter yesterday about David Lynch attending the Lucca Film Festival in Tuscany and the fact that he'll be doing some presentations of Twin Peaks;The Return (through seven episodes now on Showtime) and I was reminded that Lynch revealed the first two episodes at Cannes prior to their Showtime presentations.
It also reminded me that I have a theory that master of weirdness might make a return this year to Telluride. Hear me out...or, I guess, read me out.
Lynch used to be a fairly serious Telluride regular. As best I can tell Lynch was in Telluride in 1986 with Blue Velvet and Eraserhead. Screened some of Twin Peaks in 1989 (though only Mark Frost and Michael Ontkean are listed as attending with the show). Industrial Symphony in 1990, again with no Lynch listed as attending. Lynch received a Telluride Tribute in 1999 complete with screenings of The Straight Story. In 2001, TFF reportedly "snuck" Mulholland Drive. I think the last time a Lynch film played the festival was as an executive producer on Werner Herzog's My Son, My Son, What Have Ye Done in 2009 as a sneak preview.
That's a pretty impressive run of Telluride screenings.
Sooo... how about screening the last two episodes of Twin Peaks: The Return at TFF #44?
They're both set to screen on Showtime on Sunday, Sept. 3rd. Maybe we should kick off the weekend Friday with those two episodes back to back.
It's a thought.
That's a wrap for Thursday. More tomorrow.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Today's look at past T-ride distribution outfits is Fox Searchlight. I've tracked their presence there since 2004. You'll note that FS missed having any film at TFF in 2009, 2012 and 2016.
2015: He Named Me Malala
2014: Birman, Wild
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2011: Shame, The Descendants
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2007: Juno, The Savages
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake
2005: Bee Season
2004: Kinsey
The math here tells us that Fox Searchlight averages 1.2 films per year at Telluride.
This year, they appear to have as many as four films with at least some potential to lay the festival:
Battle of the Sexes, Goodbye Christopher Robin, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water.
Battle of the Sexes is directed by the team of Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris (the team behind Little Miss Sunshine) and stars Emma Stone and Steve Carell. The film is produced, in part, by Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours, Steve Jobs). The Boyle connection might be enough to give this film the best chance of the four to make the Telluride lineup. Chances: 55%. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
Goodbye Christopher Robin is directed by Simon Curtis and stars Domhnall Gleeson and Margot Robbie. Beyond those basics, the trailer makes it seem very similar to Finding Neverland which played Telluride in 2004 and went on to one Oscar win and an additional six nominations. Chances: 45%.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is written and directed by Martin McDonagh of In Bruges fame. It looks (again based on its trailer) as if it is a serious awards vehicle for Francis McDormand. Chances: 40%.
The Shape of Water is co-written and directed by Guillermo Del Toro and stars Doug Jones and Sally Hawkins. Del Toro could return to Telluride for the first time since playing his The Devil's Backbone there in 2001 making him the only director in this group who has had a film previously make the lineup. Chances: 35%.
THE TELLURIDE FILM FEST HISTORY BOOK: TFF #24
Here's another installment of my reach back in time to document the history of the Telluride Film Festival. Today, the 24th TFF. TFF #24 ran from Aug. 29-Sept. 1, 1997
Guest Director: Peter von Bagh
Tributes: Neil Jordan, Horton Foote, Alexander Sukurov
Special Medallion: Milos Stehlik
SHOWS:
Affliction
Alone
The Butcher's Boy
Can Memory Be Dissolved in Evian Water
Capitaine Conan
Caught
Classe Tout Risk
Eve's Bayou
Fast, Cheap and Put of Control
The Girl and the Hyacinths
Gummo
Lea
Letter from and Unknown Woman
Little Dieter Needs to Fly
Love and Death on Long Island
Ma Vie En Rose
Madame De
Men with Guns
Mother and Son
The Narrow Margin
Perfect Circle
Rothchild's Violin
Simoom
Steamboat Bill Jr.
The Sweet Hereafter
Taste of Cherry
Two Girls and a Guy
U-Turn
Unmade Beds
The White Reindeer
Who the Hell Is Juliette?
Guests:
Russell Banks
Powers Boothe
James Coburn
Vondie Curtis-Hall
Robert Downey, Jr.
Atom Egoyan
Richard Fleischer
Horton Foote
Werner Herzog
Mary Beth Hurt
Neil Jordan
Abbas Kiarostami
Gary Larson
Kasi Lemmons
Jennifer Lopez
Errol Morris
Joshua Oppenheimer
John Sayles
Paul Schrader
Alexander Sukurov
Oliver Stone
Bertrand Travernier
Billy Bob Thornton
James Toback
Haskell Wexler
Notes; Harmony Korine (Spring Breakers) shows his first feature at Telluride-Gummo and Joshua Oppenheimer makes his first Telluride appearance (The Act of Killing, The Look of Silence) with The Entire Story of the Louisiana Purchase.
TRAVERNIER'S FRENCH FILM EXTRAVAGANZA GETS A TRAILER
You may have caught Bertrand Tavernier's Journey Through French Cinema at TFF #43 last fall. The film just played the Seattle Film Fest and is set to open in the U.K. in September, you can re-visit it to a degree as The Film Stage revealed the release of a trailer this past weekend.
Welcome back from the weekend. Hope all fathers had a nice day yesterday.
THE DISTRIBUTORS: THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY
After having at least one film play at Telluride each year that I have been attending (since 2006) last year was the first in which there was no film on the playlist from The Weinstein Company. One might have thought (and I did for awhile) that The Founder or Lion might have played but that did not happen.
Here's the recent history of TWC (and before that, Miramax) from 2006 to the present:
2015: Carol
2014: The Imitation Game, Escobar: Paradise Lost, Keep On Keepin'On
2013: The Unknown, Salinger, Tracks
2012: The Sapphires
2011: The Artist, Butter
2010: The King's Speech
2009: The Road
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, My Enemy's Enemy, I'm Not There
2006: Venus, Indigenes
So the question becomes, "Will TWC return to TFF and if so, with what films?"
As I write this on Monday morning, TWC really seems to have on;y two films that are dated appropriately and with enough buzz to be serious Telluride (and for that matter, Venice, Toronto, New York, London) consideration.
The Current War and Mary Magdalene. Let's breakdown each in terms of its TFF possibility.
The Current War stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon as Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse respectively and focuses on the battle between them to determine which form of electricity, Alternating Current or Direct Current, would dominate American electrical delivery.
The film is directed by Alonso Gomez-Rejon who has worked in the past for Alejandro Inarritu, Martin Scorsese and Ben Affleck. Gomez-Rejon was a second unit director for Argo and for Babel.
I have heard via a back channel some scuttlebutt from a screening of the film that was less than stellar but, this far out, I don't think that necessarily removes The Current War from the TFF discussion.
Mary Magdalene stars Rooney Mara as Mary and Joaquin Phoenix as Jesus in a film that tells the story of the female follower of Christ. Garth Davis (Lion) directs. Additionally, one of the film's producers is Iain Canning who also produced The King's Speech, Shame and Hunger; all of which played Telluride.
My feeling is that it's more likely than not that TWC returns to Telluride in 2017 with one film (as you might note, the average for TWC is 1.6 films per year).
My guesstimate at the moment is that The Current War has a slightly better chance than Mary Magdalene but that advantage is minuscule.
Chances: The Current War 51%, Mary Magdalene 49%.
Tomorrow, a look at Fox Searchlight.
ANNECY AUDIENCES LOVED LOVING VINCENT
The Annecy International Animated Film Festival concluded at the end of this past week with awards going primarily to Japanese film makers but the audience award went to Loving Vincent which I highlighted here last week.
The film likely gets a boost from the win both for Oscar consideration as well as for a Telluride play.
Clayton Davis' Circuitbreaker podcast from Awards Circuit was up this past weekend with a number of topics covered in the 1:20 long program. The last 20 minutes or so beginning at the 55:35 mark starts as a discussion about the selection of Richard Linklater's Last Flag Flying as the opening night film for the New York Film Festival. That leads to a far ranging discussion about where Davis and his crew think a lot of films will land at fall festivals including Telluride. Those four titles are electrifying,
The four films that are named as Telluride plays (in order that they're mentioned in the podcast) are:
Woody Allen's Wonder Wheel
Alexander Payne's Downsizing
Denis Villeneuve's Blade Runner 2049
Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The inclusion of Downsizing isn't a surprise but Wonder Wheel, Three Billboards and Blade Runner 2049 would all be surprises.
Welcome to Friday everyone...leaving La La Land today to head back to Casa Patterson...
THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
As I wrote yesterday, I'm beginning the annual summer assessment of film distribution companies as a way to try to read the Telluride tea leaves.
I tend to begin this each summer with Sony Pictures Classics because, certainly in my time as an attendee, no other distributor has had as strong and continuous presence at TFF than SPC. As I reminded everyone yesterday, here is the legacy of SPC over the past several years:
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)
SPC averages 4-5 films per year at the fest. Looking at the films that are listed as under the SPC umbrella at IMDb...here's a thought or two about those SPC films:
Initially, I'm not gong to assess films from SPC that played Sundance but are not yet in release (ex: Call Me By Your Name, Novitiate) due to Telluride's "first North American showing" policy but I will have a note about that below. That leaves eight films to evaluate.
In order of TFF likelihood (at least for right now):
1) Loveless/Zvyagnistev. The factors: Played Cannes were it won awards and was well reviewed (88 Metascore). Zvyagnistev played T-ride in '14 with Leviathan. Chances: 80%.
2) A Fantastic Woman/Lelio. The factors: Played Berlin where it won awards and was really well reviewed (96 Metascore). Lelio played T-ride in '13 with Gloria. Chances: 75%.
3) The Rider/Zhao. The factors: An SPC purchase at Cannes after a very good play in the Director's Fortnight (86 Metascore). Despite a young director and a cast of unprofessional actors, this is a film that I just have a gut instinct about in as far as TFF is concerned. Chances: 60%.
4) Happy End/Haneke. The factors: Despite some critical disgruntlement, the film has a respectable Metascore (78) and Haneke's history is very strong with TFF (Amour, The White Ribbon , Cache). Chances: 55%.
After those four, the SPC slate seems a bit murkier as far as predicting films with a possible Telluride fest play.
5) Final Portrait/Tucci. The factors: The biopic about artist Alberto Giacometti stars Geoffrey Rush (who was in T-ride in '10 with The King's Speech). Stanley Tucci wrote and directed the film which played Berlin. That plus a good Metascore (76) give it the #5 spot. Chances: 40%.
6) The Silent Man/Landesman. The factors: Liam Neeson stars as Mark Felt, the Deep Throat of Watergate fame. It hasn't played festivals to this point. If TFF is looking to program a film that "feels" reflective of the current environment in Washington; this could be a way to do that. Chances: 25%
7) The Leisure Seeker/Virzi. The factors: Like Silent Man, The Leisure Seeker has not played at a fest as yet. It stars Helen Mirren (The Last Station '09) and Donald Sutherland. Chances: 20%
Note about The Silent Man and The Leisure Seeker. Though neither has played a festival, neither did SPC films Norman nor Maudie last year...so don't count either film out.
8) Based on a True Story/Polanski. The factors: The film was not reviewed well following its Cannes play (Metascore 43) and Polanski's inability to accompany the film to the U.S. makes it the least likely of the eight SPC films listed here. Chances: 5%.
One final note: Although I doubt that Telluride plays another Sundance film this year, it's not impossible. Last year both Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress played Sundance first and there was a lot of buzz that Birth of a Nation might make the same journey until the film got mired in director Nate Parker's controversy. Sooo...2% chances for Call Me By Your Name and Novitiate.
Monday's look will be The Weinstein Company.
TRAILER FOR GOODBYE CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
If you didn't see it yesterday, Fox Searchlight dropped a trailer for Simon Curtis' Goodbye Christopher Robin starring Domnhall Gleeson as Winnie the Pooh creator A.A. Milne. Margot Robbie co-stars as his wife.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
The scenes look lovely and obviously, Fox Searchlight, which has dated the film for an Oct. 13th release, thinks it has an awards player on its hands.
Could it play Telluride? I'll be assessing its chances as I look at the FS slate next week.
Here's additional coverage of the releases of the trailer from:
