Tapley Taps in / Variety's Anticipation / U.S. Trailer for Foxtrot / Jenkins On The Shape of Water

Hello to all on this last Thursday in December and 2017.


TAPLEY TAPS IN

Kristopher Tapley of Variety/In Contention has been a big presence in this space over the past several years as one of the best and best known Oscar prognosticators in the business.  Since I began the practice of following Telluride films through the awards season, Tapley's take on the Oscar scene is one that I have referenced religiously for many years.  But this year, Tapley has been quiet.

Variety has him running their podcast interviews and that seems to have become his central responsibility there.  At any rate and forever reasons, Tapley hasn't had any set of published predictions yet this season...until this week.

Tapley's InContention went up on Tuesday with a full set of predictions in all 24 Oscar categories.

In terms of films from TFF #44...here's what Mr. T predicts:

The Shape of Water gets 12 nominations: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins-yeah!), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour gets 5: Actor, Cinematography, Makeup. Score and Production Design

Lady Bird gets 4: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay

And one nomination each for:
Downsizing: Supporting Actress
Loving Vincent: Animated Feature
The Insult: Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman: Foreign Language Film
Loveless: Foreign Language Film
Faces/Places: Documentary Feature
Heroin(e): Documentary Short

A total of 28 nominations for TFF #44 films  if Kris is 100% accurate which is right at the Telluride Oscar average over the past several years.

Other films Tapley names for Best Picture and their predicted total nominations are: Dunkirk-7, Call Me By Your Name-5, The Florida Project-3, Get Out-3, The Post-6 and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-6.

Tapley's complete set of predictions is here.



VARIETY'S ANTICIPATION

Also this week, Variety's critics gazed into their collective crystal ball and published a list of 20 films they are most excited to see in 2018.  Their list gives us a chance to ponder possible TFF #45 titles.

So, here are the films from Variety's 2018 most anticipated that feel like they have some T-ride potential:

Boy Erased-directed by Joel Edgerton
Burning -director Lee Chang-dong's last film was Poetry in 2010 which played Telluride
Everybody Knows- could be the film that gets Asghar Farhadi back to TFF
First Man- director Damien Chazelle's follow up to La La Land
The Man Who Killed Don Quixote- does Terry Gilliam return to TFF?
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron has been working on this since Gravity
The Sisters Brothers-Another possible return to TFF from Jacques Audiard
Sunset-director Laszlo Nemes first feature since his stunning Son of Saul

The complete listing of 20 films with commentary from Variety is linked here.



U.S. TRAILER FOR FOXTROT

Sony Pictures Classics Foreign Language Film Oscar contender Foxtrot from director and writer Samuel Maoz has its U.S. trailer which was released this week.

You can access it here from FirstShowing.net.



JENKINS ON THE SHAPE OF WATER

And finally today a link to a new interview from Deadline's Pete Hammond with Best Supporting Actor contender Richard Jenkins from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.  As many of you know, Jenkins has been  a favorite of mine for Oscar consideration for this role since seeing the film.

That interview is here.


That's your last MTFB for 2017 friends.  I'll have 2018's first post (of some sort) up on Monday, Jan. 1, 2018.  Happy New Year and thanks for spending some of your 2017 reading these ramblings...


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MTFB Landmark-400,000 / The Oscar Landscape / The Critical Landscape

Good Monday to everyone and Merry Christmas to those who celebrate the holiday.


MTFB LANDMARK-400,000

Over the weekend Michael's Telluride Film Blog recorded its 400,000th view.  Hard for me to believe.

As always, thanks to the dedicated readers and fans of the Telluride Film Festival as well as the Oscar race that take a peek at this space from time to time.  Truly unbelievable to me.


THE OSCAR LANDSCAPE

Taking a look at the Gurus of Gold charts reported this week...for Best Picture the new number one is Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird

Also in play are TFF #44 films The Shape of Water at #5 and Darkest Hour at #9.

For Best Actor the only TFF #44 Actor/Film in play is Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour who remains at #1.

For Best Supporting Actor-The Shape of Water's Richard Jenkins sits at #4

and for Best Director-Guillermo Del Toro is at #1 for The Shape of Water while Lady Bird's Greta Gerwig is at #3.

Sasha Stone covers the Gurus with a post at her site linked here.

Meanwhile, Stone's own internal Awards Daily "Awards Squad" has TFF #44 films/performers listed as follows:

Best Picture: The Shape of Water at #1, Lady Bird at #4 and Darkest Hour at #9.
Best Direction: Del Toro/The Shape of Water at #2, Gerwig/Lady Bird #6
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird #1, Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water #3, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes #7
Best Actor: Oldman/Darkest Hour #1, Christian Bale/Hostiles #10
Best Supporting Actress:Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird #2, Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water #3, Hong Chau/Downsizing #6
Best Supporting Actor: Jenkins/The Shape of Water #6, Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water #8, Tracy Letts/Lady Bird #9
Adapted Screenplay: Wonderstruck #5, First They Killed My Father #10
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird #2, The Shape of Water #4
Film Editing: The Shape of Water #2, Darkest Hour #9, Lady Bird #11
Cinematography: The Shape of Water #3, Wonderstruck #6, Darkest Hour #7

The complete rundown of the Awards Daily Oscar Squad is here.


THE CRITICAL LANDSCAPE

Last Thursday I included as a part of the post a link to Indiewire's collection from 200 critics of the best films of 2017.  That list was truncated but now Indiewire has posted the 50 Best Films according to that critical compilation.  From that list five TFF #44 films made the grade:

at #46-Battle of the Sexes
#41-Darkest Hour
#36-Hostiles
#6-The Shape of Water
#2 Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out was the top film according to the 200 critics that Indiewire surveyed.  The complete gallery of their top 50 is here.


And that'll be a wrap for the Dec. 25th edition of MTFB.


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End of Year Critics Lists / Darkest Hour Short Listed for Makeup and Hair / Morris on Wormwood

Welcome to the Monkey House as Kurt Vonnegut said...


END OF YEAR CRITICS LISTS

Both Indiewire and Metacritic this week have posted stories with accumulated data from multiple critics.  Here's your review of where TFF #44 films ended up on those lists.

Beginning with Indiewire's poll of over 200 critics.

Best Film: #2-Lady Bird, #6-The Shape of Water (Jordan Peele's Get Out edged out Lady Bird for the top spot)
Director: #3-Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Best Actress: #1-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird, #4-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actor: #5-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Supporting Actress- #1-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird
Documentary- #1-Faces/Places
Foreign Language Film: #2 Faces/Places
Cinematography- #4 The Shape of Water
Animated Feature- #3 Loving Vincent
Best Films of 2018 That Have Already Been Seen: #2-The Rider, #3-First Reformed, #5-Lean on Pete

The complete story from Indie wire is here.


Metacritic posted two different stories.  The first focused on collating end of the year critics groups accolades, the other collated critics year end top ten lists.

From the collation of critics awards highlighted TFF #44 films as follows:

Top Ten Films:

#2 The Shape of Water
#4 Lady Bird

Director: #1-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water, #3- Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Actor- #1 Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Actress- #2-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, #3-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Supporting Actor- #3-Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Supporting Actress- #1- Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird, #7- The Shape of Water
Cinematography- #3-The Shape of Water
Film Editing- #3-The Shape of Water
Foreign Language Film- #3 First They Killed My Father
Documentary- #2- Faces/Places
Animated Feature- #2- Loving Vincent

The complete rundown from Metacritic is here.

Metacritic's compilation of critical ratings of top ten lists for 2017 films came down with these TFF #44 films in the Top 20:

#2- Lady Bird
#7-The Shape of Water
#10- Faces/Places

The complete list plus the top tens from critics are here.


DARKEST HOUR SHORT LISTED

Seven films have been short listed by AMPAS for the Makeup/Hair Oscar.  That list will be whittled to three by Oscar nomination announcement morning.

TFF #44's Darkest Hour was short listed for turning Gary Oldman into the physical presence of Winston Churchill.

Indiewire has that story here.


MORRIS ON WORMWOOD

Errol Morris spoke recently with Variety about his multi-part CIA docudrama Wormwood which bowed over Labor Day weekend at Telluride.  Wormwood is now available for streaming on Netflix.

The Variety interview is accessible here.


That's all for today.  I'll have a short post on Christmas morning and be back to business as usual next Thursday.

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The FAC Updates: Picture, Director, Actress and Actor /. Critics, Globes and SAG-AFTRA Clues? / Down to Nine

Good Monday to all...


THE FAC UPDATES: PICTURE, DIRECTOR, ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Lots of movement in terms of Oscar predictions has occurred as a result of various groups announcing their end of the year film superlatives so I thought it would be a good time to update The Film Awards Clearinghouse charts for the four major categories.  As always, the films that played TFF #44 are Bold.

BEST PICTURE



My last Best Pic update was on Nov. 23rd.  Here's what I posted then:

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Three Billboards
4) Get Out
5) Darkest Hour
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) The Post
8) Lady Bird

Others: The Florida Project, Mudbound, I Tonya

Comments: Get Out, Three Billboards, The Post and Lady Bird seem to have some wind at their backs.  Darkest Hour and The Florida Project feel like they're losing some steam.

And here's the updates Best Picture chart after announcements from the NBR, AFI, New York and Los Angeles critics, Critics Choice, SAG-AFTRA and Golden Globes:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

Comments: Nothing epitomizes the mercurial and uncertain nature of this year's Oscar race than how the Best Picture race has been jumbled in the last four weeks.  Lady Bird moves from barely being in the top eight to sitting, by the thinnest of margins, at the top spot.  Three Billboards and Get Out have stayed relatively solid.  Dunkirk seems to be suffering from the entrance of The Post into the race.  The Shape of Water also seems to have lost some its mojo.

BEST DIRECTION

Also last update on Nov. 23rd:

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
4) Steven Spielberg/The Post
5) Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Joe Wright/Darkest Hour, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Comments: Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh all seem solid.  After them, though, it's a mess.

And here's the new Director's chart:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Comment: And this shows the continued schizoid Oscar race...The Shape of Water drops in the Best Picture race while Del Toro is at #1 on the director's chart...yeesh.  And I am puzzled that we're not seeing more Phantom Thread love for Picture or Director.

BEST ACTRESS

This was last updates on Nov. 27th:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards

2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

3) Meryl Streep/The Post

4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya

5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel and Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul

Your new set of picks is here:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:What was once regarded as a two actress race (McDormand and Hawkins) is wide open between the top five.  Also, for a race that was touted early on as having a multitude of candidates it really is down to seven women.

BEST ACTOR

Also last updated on Nov. 27th:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

4) Tom Hanks/The Post

5) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

Others: James Franco.The Disaster Artist, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq. and Andrew Garfield/Breathe

Comment: Hanks has some serious buzz now that some people have actually seen The Post in screenings.


And the new predictions:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

Comment:



CRITICS, GLOBES AND SAG-AFTRA CLUES ?

As we have moved closer and closer to the end of the year a huge swell of awards and critics groups have weighed in with their thoughts about what were the best films in 2017.

I tend to focus on seven organizations: The National Board of Review (NBR), The American Film Institute (AFI), the Broadcast Film Critics Association-Critics Choice(BFCA), the New York Film Critics Circle (NY), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -Golden Globes (GG) and the Screen Actors Guild/American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG) to get a sense of what's going on.

Nineteen different films have been recognized by at least one of these organizations as one of the best films of the year.  Here are the top ten:

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

Other films mentioned at least once by any of these seven groups:  Baby Driver, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, Logan, Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, I Tonya, Mudbound and Wonder Woman.

What does it mean?  In terms of Oscar, I don't know what it means.  I have been saying for a month now that Lady Bird might be your Best Picture winner.  I think that it's the film that no one really hates and that a lot of people either love or, at a minimum, like.  I think on a preferential ballot, it gets a bunch of #1 votes but is also on a lot of other ballots at #2 or #3.

The concern I had at Telluride about its chances were that it didn't have enough weight or gravitas.  That it just didn't seem to be about a Oscar-y subject matter.

But...it's reception by critics, I think, may give cover to Academy voters who might have had the same reservations.  Their reasoning might be that if the critics have decided that it's weighty enough then they can too.

Additionally, in a year (and especially here at the end of the year) when the issue of how women are treated by our society has come to the fore; it feels like Lady Bird might benefit from being a film written and directed by a woman and that is centrally about women.

The other thing going for it seems to be that all of the other serious contenders seem to have at least some drag on them.

Get Out is a genre horror film, at least to some.

Some are uncomfortable with Three Billboards' treatment of racism.

Call Me By Your Name my suffer from following a year when Moonlight won.

Dunkirk seems like a long time ago and is a directors triumph but doesn't look like any acting performance is going to be recognized (maybe Rylance, but even that idea has faded) and that feels like a problem.

The Shape of Water doesn't appeal to everyone...witness its exclusion from NBR and SAG-AFTRA.

The Post might be in the strongest position to challenge for the top spot at this point.

I don't think anyone thinks that The Big Sick or The Disaster Artist are likely contenders for Best Picture.

And, for whatever reason, maybe the lateness of screenings, Phantom Thread hasn't yet many waves in terms of a Best Picture nomination.

As to The Florida Project, I thought after its reception at Cannes that IT would be the big play for A24 in the Best Picture race but Lady Bird's ascendancy seems to have moved The Florida Project into the second tier of BP contenders.

It will be interesting to see what the DGA, PGA, WGA and Globes Awards ceremony have to tell us in January.

DOWN TO NINE

The Academy of Motion Pictures has announced the short list of nine foreign language films still in contention for the Oscar in that category.  They are:

A Fantastic Woman/Chile
In the Fade/Germany
On Body and Soul/Hungary
Foxtrot/Israel
The Insult/Lebanon
Loveless/Russia
Felicite/Senegal
The Wound/South Africa
The Square/Sweden

Four of the nine played TFF #44: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.

Surprises were the exclusion of Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father and Cannes favorite BPM.


That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more should you check back in on Thursday...from an unusual locale...

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SAG-Aftra Nominations and Ruminations / Lean on Pete Poster / A Closer Look at Loving Vincent / Focus on Loveless

Good Thursday everyone.


SAG-AFTRA NOMINATIONS AND RUMINATIONS

SAG-Aftra, the actors guild, named its 25 nominees for outstanding acting for 2017 on Tuesday.  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri led the way with four nominations including one for Best Ensemble.

Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird was the TFF #44 front runner with three nominations: Best Ensemble, Lead Actress-Saoirse Ronan and Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf.

Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water gained two nominations: Lead Actress-Sally Hawkins and Supporting Actor-Richard Jenkins

Other TFF #44 films that earned a single nomination were Gary Oldman for Lead Actor in Darkest Hour, Steve Carell for Lead Actor in Battle of the Sexes and Hong Chau for Supporting Actress for Downsizing.

Other Ensemble nominees were: The Big Sick, Get Out and Mudbound.

Complete nominations and analysis are linked here:

Indiewire/Anne Thompson

Indiewire/Jenna Marotta

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg

Vulture/Kyle Buchanan

The winners will be announced on January 21st.


LEAN ON PETE POSTER

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reports that Andrew Haigh's Lean on Pete has anew poster:

Lean on Pete features an awards worthy performance from young actor Charlie Plummer and is set for release in the U.S. on Mar. 30th.

Here's the story from World of Reel.


A CLOSER LOOK AT LOVING VINCENT

Indiewire's Tom Bruggemann posted a story this week at Indiewire that details the process that brought animated feature Loving Vincent to Telluride and the big screen this week.

The film is considered to be a serious contender for an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature. 

The film details the life of artist Vincent Van Gogh and does so in a film in which all of the frames that make up the film have been hand painted in Van Gogh's style.

That story is here..


FOCUS ON LOVELESS

Screen International's Tom Grater penned a profile this week on Russian film maker Andrey Zvyagintsev's Loveless. The film is Zvyagintsev's follow up to his 2014 Oscar nominated Leviathan.  Loveless is expected to be on the Foreign Language Oscar short list that will be announced soon.

Here's the link to that profile.




That's the Thursday edition of MTFB...more to come on Monday.

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Golden Globe Nominations / New Trailers: Loveless and Lean on Pete / Documentary Short List

Good Monday to everyone...


GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

I'll publish this morning before the nomination announcement...so...come back a little later today and I'll have the nominees and a note or two about what happened and TFF #44's impact on whatever is announced.

TFF #44 Golden Globe nominations: 19

The Shape of Water led all nominees with 7.

The Shape of Water (7): Best Picture-Drama, Best Actress/Drama-Sally Hawkins, Supporting Actress-Octavia Spencer, Supporting Actor-Richard Jenkins, Direction, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (4): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Best Actress-Saoirse Ronan, Supporting actress-Laurie Metcalf, Screenplay.

Battle of the Sexes (2): Best Actress-Musical/Comedy-Emma Stone, Best actor-Musical/Comedy-Steve Carell

Darkest Hour (1): Gary Oldman

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress-Hong Chau

Loving Vincent (1)-Animated Film

First They Killed My Father (1)-Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman (1)-Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)-Foreign Language Film

You can find a complete list of all the Golden Globe nominations here.

NEW TRAILERS FOR LOVELESS AND LEAN ON PETE

Trailer for Loveless from YouTube:

Trailer for Lean on Pete from YouTube:

DOCUMENTARY SHORT LIST

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences named the 15 documentary features on this year's short list for Oscar consideration.  TFF #44 docs are CAPITALIZED*


Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Ex Libris
FACES PLACES*
HUMAN FLOW*
Icarus
AN INCONVIENENT SEQUEL:TRUTH TO POWER*
Jane
LA92
Last Men in Aleppo
Long Strange Trip
One of Us
Strong Island
Unrest

More coming later today following the Golden Globe announcement.


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SPECIAL POST: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

Here's  a special post to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and the associated Film Awards Clearinghouse:  a round-up of Golden Globe nomination predictions for tomorrow morning.

The HFPA is set to announce their nominees for 2017's awards at 8:30am EST/5:30am PST- Monday morning.

I'll be posting a bit later tomorrow morning with the complete rundown of the actual nominees with particular attention, as you might expect, to the films that played as a part of TFF #44 (or #43 in a couple of possible cases).

I am passing along the picks from some of the best in the business.  All four of them think the TFF #44 films collectively will land nearly 20 nominations but there are some disagreements about how those 30 nominations will be spread.  Here they are:

SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY:

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical/Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Darkest Hour (3): Best Picture-Drama, Actor-Drama (Oldman), Supporting Actor (Mendelsohn)

Downsizing (3): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actor-Musical Comedy (Damon), Supporting Actress Chau).

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell).

Loving Vincent: Animated Feature.

TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44-20

Stone does not include picks for Foreign Language Film or Song.

Her complete picks are here at Awards Daily.


KRISTOPHER TAPLEY/VARIETY-IN CONTENTION

The Shape of Water (7): Best Picture-Drama, Actress/Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (4): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical/Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Screenplay.

Hostiles (1): Actor/Drama (Bale)

Darkest Hour (1): Actor/Drama (Oldman)

Battle of the Sexes (1): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone)

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress (Chau)

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song

Foreign Language Films (4): First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless

TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44- 20

His complete picks are here from Variety.


ANNE THOMPSON/INDIEWIRE

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Darkest Hour (2): Actor-Drama (Oldman), Supporting Actor (Mendelsohn).

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell)

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song

Foreign Language Films (3): First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot


TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44- 20

Her complete predictions from Indiewire.



STEVE POND/THE WRAP

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Director, Score.

Darkest Hour (1): Actor-Drama (Oldman)

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell).

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature.

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song.

Foreign Language Films (3): First They Killed My Father, Foxtrot, A Fantastic Woman.


His complete predictions are here from The Wrap.


Things I am hoping for in the morning (some more realistic than others);

Harry Dean Stanton gets nominated for the non-Telluride film Lucky.

Richard Jenkins is nominated for Supporting Actor for The Shape of Water.

Greta Gerwig is nominated for Best Director for Lady Bird.

Tracy Letts is nominated for Supporting Actor for Lady Bird.

All five Foreign Language nominees are from TFF #44: First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.


CHECK BACK TOMORROW MORNING FOR HOW IT ALL ACTUALLY GOES DOWN.

TFF #44 and The Critic's Choice / TFF #45 Anyone? / Deadline Talks To Lady Bird

Hello to everyone on this Thursday...


TFF #44 AND THE CRITIC'S CHOICE

The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their nominations for end of the year superlatives in both film and television on Tuesday and TFF #44 film The Shape of Water lead all films with 14 nominations.  Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird was among a group of films with the second highest total of nominations with eight.

Here's the rundown of all 33 nominations received by films that played at Telluride in 2017:

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Actress-Sally Hawkins, Supporting Actress-Octavia Spencer, Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins), Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Film Editing, Costume Design, Makeup, Visual Effects, Score and Best SciFi/Horror Film.

Lady Bird (8): Best Picture, Actress-Saoirse Ronan, Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf, Ensemble, Direction, Actress in a Comedy-Ronan and Best Comedy Film

Darkest Hour (4): Best Picture, Actor-Gary Oldman, Makeup and Score

Battle of the Sexes (2) Best Actress in a Comedy(Emma Stone), Best Actor in a Comedy (Steve Carell)

Downsizing (1): Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau)

Wonderstruck (1): Best Young Actor/Actress (Millicent Simmonds)

Loving Vincent (1): Best Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1): Best Foreign Language Film

First They Killed My Father (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Other films that snagged eight nominations were: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk and The Post.  Blade Runner 2049 had seven nominations.

The announcements were something of a bounce back for The Shape of Water which had not gotten much love in earlier key announcements from the National Board of Review or the New York or Los Angeles film critics organizations.

I was also personally thrilled to see Richard Jenkins name among the Supporting Actor nominees for The Shape of Water as I have been stumping for his inclusion since the lights came up after the film screened in Telluride back over Labor Day weekend.

Sad, though, that my other awards choice, Harry Dean Stanton in the non-Telluride film Lucky, didn't land a nod for Best Actor.

The next big awards splash happens later today with the announcement of accolades from The American Film Institute.  Then, next Tuesday, Golden Globe nominations will be revealed.

The complete list of Critic's Choice nominations is here.

The Critic's Choice Awards will be handed out on Jan. 11th at 8:00om EST on The CW network.


TFF #45 ANYONE?

The Playlist has dropped the annual 100 Most Anticipated Films list.  That was posted on Tuesday.

I have made it a habit over the last several years to use that list as a starting point for serious TFF speculation for the upcoming year.  Sure, we're nine months away from Labor Day weekend 2018 and a lot can change between now and then but, hey, "why not take a shot?" says I.

Last year when the list came out I named 20 films that might make the TFF #44 program.  Of those 20, nine made The SHOW: A Fantastic Woman, Battle of the Sexes, Lady Bird, The Other Side of Hope, Lean on Pete, Downsizing, Loveless, The Shape of Water and Wonderstruck.  An additional film that I didn't name also made The SHOW: Darkest Hour.

In 2016, from the 100 films that The Playlist mentioned, seven made the TFF lineup: Neruda, Una, Things to Come, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Arrival (which was titled The Story of Your Life at the time).  The only film among them that I named: Neruda. 

In 2015 the list included: Carol, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette and Spotlight which I included on my Telluride-possibles as well as Room, 45 Years and Steve Jobs which I did not list.

In 2014 the list included: The Lunchbox, Mommy, Tracks and Wild that I didn't name for TFF but did include three films that I did pick: Birdman, Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner.

So the averages suggest that the list below will contain 4-5 films that will actually make the TFF #45 lineup (unless I replicate the success I had for this year)  and the eight films total that are on the complete list of 100 films will make the T-ride program.

So...here are 20 films that appear on The Playlist's 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2018 that I think have the best shot at making it to the San Juans next Labor Day.

Initially, begin with five films that the post itself suggests could play Telluride:

#83-Mid-90's-Jonah Hill directs a coming of age comedy.  Key reason it plays: Distribution from A24.

#72-The Front Runner-The true story of the downfall of Presidential aspirant Gary Hart played by Hugh Jackman and directed Jason Reitman.  After running two hits through Telluride: Juno and Up in the Air, Reitman did not have Young Adult there and then did have the critical and commercial misfire Labor Day, Reitman is due for a return to his original form and consequently a return to T-ride.

#38-Untitled Noah Baumbach Project,  Baumbach had Margot at the Wedding at The SHOW in 2007 and the fantastic Frances Ha in 2012 (which may have helped lay the groundwork for Greta Gerwig's solo directing debut, Lady Bird) but hasn't been back since.  This might be the project that marks his return.

#25-First Man-The story of astronaut Neil Armstrong from director Damien Chazelle starring Ryan Gosling (two collaborators on last year's La La Land).  The high profile expected for this film plus the undeniable success of La La Land suggests that Chazelle would probably be up for a return to TFF.  The picture is from Universal, however, which hasn't exactly been a familiar player at the fest over the years.

#1- If Beale Street Could Talk-The Playlist's #1 most anticipated film is Barry Jenkins' followup to his Oscar winning and Telluride debuting Moonlight.  Just like The Playlist, I fully expect the film to bow at TFF #45.  The film is distributed by Annapurna which is getting into the portion of the business after having been a production firm until now.

In addition to these five films I have zeroed in on another 15 that could make an appearance at Telluride:

#76-Kursk
#75-Private Life
#71-Cold War
#52-E-Book
#40-Fahrenheit 451
#31-Peterloo
#22-The Other Side f the Wind
#21-The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#19-Sunset
#17-The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#13-Maya
#12-Everybody Knows
#11-The Sisters Brothers
#8-Widows
#3- Roma

 Let's see how many of these we actually do see when the TFF #45 schedule is unveiled on Aug. 30th.


DEADLINE TALKS TO LADY BIRD

As a part of their "Contender Series" videos, Deadline recently sat down with Greta Gerwig, Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf (all recognized with nominations from the BFCA this week) to talk about Lady Bird.  Here it is from YouTube:

That's it for today.  Come back for more on Monday.


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The FAC Updates Supporting Categories / NY Loves Lady Bird and LA Loves Name and Shape / The Week and a Half Ahead / Profile and Interview Grab Bag

Hope everyone had a fine weekend...and welcome back to MTFB.


THE F(ilm) A(wards) C(learinghouse) UPDATES SUPPORTING CATEGORIES


Our last look at the Supporting Actress and Actor categories came back on Nov. 6th.  After a month of that has seen the actual beginnings of award frenzy, there has been some movement in those categories.

As always, films/performers from TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Here's where the category stood a month ago:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


And here's today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Comment: Phantom Thread screenings have moved Manville into the convo (as well as the film and Daniel Day Lewis into stronger positions in the Best Picture and Actor categories.  Paul Thomas Anderson is also a serious player for Original Screenplay and possibly Director).  Scott Thomas falls out of immediate consideration which mirrors the general pull back from Darkest Hour that seems to have developed.  It's still regarded as a two pony race between Janney and Metcalf.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Best Supporting Actor race looked like this a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

 Today's update looks like this:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


Comment: The top four stay solidly the same and, as with the women, the real race appears to be between the top two: Dafoe and Rockwell with everyone else jockeying for the "honor to be nominated" spots.  Michael Shannon's performance has lost forward momentum and that has boosted Rylance and Jenkins (who, of course, has been my personal choice on this category since seeing the film in Telluride over Labor Day).


NY LOVES LADY BIRD AND LA LOVES NAME AND SHAPE

The New York Film Critics Circle named their "Best Of" for 2017 on Thursday with Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird winning the top honor as Best Film.  Lady Bird star Saoirse Ronan was also honored as Best Actress.  The other TFF #44 film named by the NYFCC was Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places as Best Non-fiction film.

Other key winners were:

Direction: Sean Baker/The Florida Project
Actor: Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish/Girl's Trip
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread

The complete list of NYFCC winners is here from Variety.

Meanwhile, yesterday, The Los Angeles Film Critics Association named their film superlatives for 2017 which was dominated by Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.

TFF #44 recognition from the LAFCA was spearheaded by the three awards that Shape of Water received: Best Direction for Del Toro (in a tie with Guadagnino), Best Actress for Sally Hawkins and Best Cinematography.  It was also runner-up for Production Design and Score.

Other TFF #44 winners were Laurie Metcalf as Best Supporting Actress for her role in Lady Bird, Agnes Varda and JR's documentary Faces Places and Andrey Zvyagintsev's Loveless which tied with BPM for Best Foreign Language Film.

The L.A. critics also recognized Lady Bird writer/director Greta Gerwig with their New Generation Award.

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone says that Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird might be the Oscar frontrunner right now.  I'm  not all the way there yet.  I still think that if I were a betting fellow that the best bet is still Chris Nolan's Dunkirk.  That said, I have been suggesting for almost a month now that I do think the preferential ballot maybe does boost Lady Bird and Sasha is way smarter and more experienced than most of the planet about Oscar.

Call Me By Your Name was recognized as Best Film (The Florida Project was named runner-up) along with recognition for Timothee Chalamet as Best Actor and the nod for Guadagnino's direction.

Coverage of the LAFCA awards is here from:

Indiewire

Deadline

Entertainment Weekly


THE WEEK AND A HALF AHEAD

Today's post continues its theme of focusing on the awards season as I turn to Sasha Stone's/Awards Daily's weekend post that identifies all of the awards dates/deadlines that are looming over the next ten days or so.  Key organizations and the dates of their reveals are:

Dec. 6th-Critic's Choice Nominations are announced.
Dec. 7th-American Film Institute announce their films of the year.
Dec. 11th-Golden Globe nominations are announced.
Dec. 13th-SAG-AFTRA nominations are announced.

And after that we won't see any other major group announcements until after the first of the year.


PROFILE AND INTERVIEW GRAB BAG:

Here's a collection of interviews and profiles I've collected the past few days about films that appeared as a part of the program for the 2017 edition of The SHOW:

Downsizing film editor Kevin Trent from Variety.  And also from Awards Circuit.

Wonderstruck (and TFF #44 Tribute recipient) Director of Photography Ed Lachman from Deadline.

20+ images from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water from Entertainment Weekly.

Director Rebecca Miller on her doc Arthur Miller: Writer from Indiewire.

Darkest Hour score composer Dario Marianelli from Indiewire.



That's your wrap from MTFB for this Monday, Dec. 4th.  I'll be back with more on Thursday!


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This Week's Oscar Precursors: NBR, Satellites and Gothams / Lady Bird Sets a Record / Focus on The Shape of Water

Hello to all on this Thursday...

THIS WEEK'S OSCAR PRECURSORS: NBR SATELLITES AND GOTHAMS

TFF #44 films fared moderately well with this week's release of film accolades from The National Board of Review but were largely ignored by the Gotham Awards.

The NBR named Steven Spielberg's The Post the best film of the year and also recognized Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep as Best Actor and Actress for that film.

The NBR, as it annually does also named a list of their ten best films of the year and that list included two Telluride films: Lady Bird and Downsizing.  Conspicuously absent were The Shape of Water, Battle of the Sexes and Darkest Hour.

Lady Bird also was named for Greta Gerwig's direction and for Laurie Metcalf's performance as Best Supporting Actress.

Foxtrot was named Best Foreign Language Film.

Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father was named co-winner of NBR's Freedom of Expression award.

Other TFF #44 films that were highlighted by the NBR  included Faces Places as one of the year's best documentaries and Loving Vincent was named to the list of ten best independent films.  A Fantastic Woman and Loveless were named to the list of five best foreign language films.

Two TFF #43 films also were lauded.  Frantz was listed in the foreign language film  category and Norman: The Rise and and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer made the independent film list.

The complete list of all winners is here from Indiewire.

The International Press Association announced the nominees for their Golden Satellite Awards yesterday and TFF #44 films were also well represented among the film nominees.  Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk led all films with 11 nominations and TFF #44 favorite The Shape of Water followed closely with 10.  

It was good news for The Shape of Water which (as you can see above) was left off of the NBR list.  Guillermo Del Toro's film was nominated for Best Picture, Best Actress for Sally Hawkins, Best Supporting Actor for Michael Shannon, Direction, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Film Editing and Art Direction/Production Design.

Lady Bird and Darkest Hour were two other TFF #44 films landing multiple nominations.  Lady Bird had six with nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress for Saoirse Ronan, Best Supporting Actress for Laurie Metcalf, Direction, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  Writer/director Greta Gerwig will also receive a special Auteur Award.

Darkest Hour was nominated in four categories: Best Actor for Gary Oldman, Cinematography, Film Editing and Sound Mixing and Editing.

Other TFF #44 films nominated by the IPA included:

Emma Stone for Best Actress in Battle of the Sexes

First They Killed My Father, Loveless and Foxtrot for Best International Film

Loving Vincent for Best Animated Film

Human Flow was nominated for Best Documentary.

A complete listing of all nominees for the Satellites is here from The Wrap.

Meanwhile, The Gotham Awards were handed out in New York earlier this week and TFF #44, which had a meager presence among the nominees to begin with, only scored one win and that was for Saoirse Ronan as Best actress in Lady Bird.  

The night was big for Call Me By Your Name which was named Best Feature and Get out which won the most awards.

The Gotham Awards list is here, also from Indiewire.

The New York Critics are set to weigh in with their list of superlative films and performances later today.

LADY BIRD SETS A RECORD

Awards Daily and others reported this week that Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird surpassed Toy Story 4 as the film that had received the most 100% ratings from Rotten Tomatoes making it "the best reviewed film of all time of that rating service.

Toy Story 4 had held the top spot with with 163 100% ratings of critic's reviews until this week when Lady Bird hit 164.

The story from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is here.


FOCUS ON THE SHAPE OF WATER

As Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water moves closer to release a number of outlets are highlighting various participants in the film.  Included in that this week were interviews or profiles with:

Actor Michael Stuhlbarg at GQ.com

Actor Michael Shannon at RogerEbert.com

and composer Alexander Desplat with Awards Daily.com

The Shape of Water opens on Dec. 8th.

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That's all for today.  More on Monday.

Updating the Lead Acting Oscar Predictions / TFF Time Travel-A Look at TFF #14 / Doug Jones on the Spotlight / HDS for Oscar Update

Welcome back from the Thanksgiving weekend...hope you survived your food-induced coma...


UPDATING THE LEAD ACTING OSCAR PREDICTIONS

As we get ready to ring down the curtain on November, here is an update of where The Film Awards Clearinghouse now thinks the Best Actress and Best Actor categories stand.

Our last look at these two categories was on Nov. 2nd.

As always, potential nominees from TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

Here were the standings on Nov. 2nd:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel

And today's new set of predictions:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards

2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

3) Meryl Streep/The Post

4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya

5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel and Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul

Comment:  It feels like the top four are bunched very tightly and that Emma Stone's chances for a back-to-back Oscar win have all but disappeared.

BEST ACTOR

Here's where the Best Actor race seemed to be three weeks ago:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

4) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

5) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.

Others: Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying, Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Tom Hanks/The Post

And here's the most recent FAC predictions for the category:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

4) Tom Hanks/The Post

5) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

Others: James Franco.The Disaster Artist, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq. and Andrew Garfield/Breathe

Comment: Hanks has some serious buzz now that some people have actually seen The Post in screenings.

TFF TIME TRAVEL- A LOOK AT TFF #14

The Telluride Film Festival historical retrospective that has been an on-going project on this site since I began with a throw back to 2005's in April continues today with a look back to the 14th Telluride Film Festival.  TFF #14 took place Sept. 4-7, 1987.

Tributes: Don Siegel, Stephen Frears and Tenghiz Abuladze.

SHOWS:

Acting Our Age

Au Revoir Les Enfants

Babette's Feast

Barfly

The Beguiled

The Blot

Brightness

Broken April

Candy Mountain

Confession

A Flame in My Heart

Hail, Hail Rock and Roll

Haiti Dreams of Democracy

The Houses Are Filled with Smoke

A Hungry Feeling: The Life and Death of Brendan Behan

I've Heard the Mermaids Singing

The Magic Toyshop

The Magic Tree

Manon of the Spring

The Marvelous Life of Joan of Arc

Molba

Polyester

Repentance

Sammy and Rosie Get Laid

Sans Soliel

Shy People

They Made Me a Fugitive

This Is Our Home, It Is Not for Sale

Thy Kingdom Come, Thy Will Be Done

The Tingler

Traveling North

Wagonmaster

Walter and June

The Whales of August

Guests:

Harry Carey, Jr.

Taylor Hackford

Ben Johnson

Chuck Jones

Louis Malle

Leonard Maltin

Helen Mirren

Bill Plympton

Barbet Schroeder

John Waters

DOUG JONES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Actor Doug Jones has been a frequent collaborator with Guillermo Del Toro and that relationship continues with Del Toro's The Shape of Water.  Jones plays "The Asset", the focus of Sally Hawkins desire and Michael Shannon's obsession.

Jones was profiled this past week in an article from Jenna Marotta for Indiewire.

That profile is linked here.

HDS FOR OSCAR UPDATE

Hey kids, this Harry Dean Stanton for an Oscar nomination thing seems to have at least a little traction.  A cursory examination of some of the best of Oscar prediction websites have Harry Dean in play.  Here's where he is placed by some of those sites:

Awards Daily has HDS at #15

Awards Circuit #15

Scott Feinberg/THR #18

The Film Experience #16

Awards Watch #17

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