Oscar Predictions Update: Director and Screenplays / Interviews with Directors: Baumbach, Norton, Meirelles

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATES: DIRECTOR AND SCREENPLAYS

Here are my most recent picks for Oscar nominations in the categories of Directing, and Adapted and Original Screenplay.  These categories were last posted on Nov. 18th.  I have indicated the last time I posted them as well as that film's position in that previous posting.  As always all films from TFF #46 are in Bold.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (2)
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (1)
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)
4) Sam Mendes/1917 (5)
5) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)
6) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit (6)

Other possibles: Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari, Todd Phillips/Joker, Clint Eastwood/Richard Jewell


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Two Popes (3)
2) Jojo Rabbit (1)
3) The Irishman (2)
4) Joker (5)
5) Little Women (4)
6) Hustlers (-)

Other possibles; Richard Jewell, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Judy


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time... (2)
3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) 1917 (-)
6) Bombshell (5)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Knives Out, Honey Boy




INTERVIEWS WITH DIRECTORS: NOAH BAUMBACH, EDWARD NORTON AND FERNANDO MEIRELLES

Noah Baumbach photo from Interview

Nadja Sayej talks with Edward Norton about Motherless Brooklyn.  Here's the link to that interview.


Pete Hammond talks to Norton in this interview for Deadline's Contender series.  That is linked here.


Gold Derby's Zach Laws talks to The Two Popes' director Fernando Merirelles.  That is linked here.



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Oscar Predictions: Best Picture Updated First Picks for Visual and Sound / Oscar Nominations Totals for TFF #46 Films / Independent Spirit Award Nominations Announced

OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

UPDATED PEST PICTURE

Best Picture nominations predictions were last posted here on Nov. 18th.   As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.

1) Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (1)
2) The Irishman (2)
3) 1917 (7)
4) Parasite (3)
5) Marriage Story (4)
6) Jojo Rabbit (5)
7) The Two Popes (6)
8) Joker (10)
9) Ford v Ferrari (9)
10) The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Bombshell, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Now for first predictions for Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing:


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Lion King
2) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
3) Avengers: Endgame
4) The Irishman
5) Ad Astra
6) The Aeronauts

Other possibles: 1917, Cats, Captain Marvel, Gemini Man


SOUND EDITING

1) 1917
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Star Wars; Rise of Skywalker
4) Ad Astra
5) Avengers: Endgame
6) Once Upon a Time...

Other possibles: Joker, The Irishman, Gemini Man


SOUND MIXING

1) 1917
2) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
3) Ford v Ferrari
4) Ad Astra
5) Once Upon a Time...
6) Rocketman

Other possibles: Avengers: Endgame, Judy, Cats


OSCAR NOMINATION TOTALS FOR TFF FILMS

Over the last couple of weeks, MTFB has predicted all 21 feature categories for Oscar nominations.  If I'm 100% correct, this is how TFF #46 films will fare on announcement morning-Jan. 13, 2020

Marriage Story is projected to have seven nominations: Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Original Score

The Two Popes is projected to have five nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design

Ford v Ferrari is projected to have five nominations: Picture, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Parasite is predicted to have four nominations: Picture, Director, Film Editing and Cinematography

Judy is projected to have two nominations: Actress and Makeup/Hair

Pain and Glory a single nomination for Actor

A Hidden Life a single nomination for Cinematography


INDIE SPIRIT NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

Independent Spirit Award nominations were announced this week and a few  TFF #46 films were in the mix.

Uncut Gems was one the bigger presences among the nominees as the film lead in total nominations (along with The Lighthouse) with five.  It was nominated for Best Feature, Direction, Actor (Sandler), Screenplay and Editing.

Marriage Story was also highly feted with nominations for Best Feature and Screenplay and the film will also receive The Robert Altman Award.

TFF #46 films with single nominations included:

A Hidden Life for Best Feature
Judy for Best Actress (Zellweger)
Waves for Best Supporting Actress (Russell)
and both Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire for Best International Feature.

The complete list of Independent Spirit Award nominees can be found here from Variety



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Oscar Predicitons: Updates and First Predix:Costumes, Makeup, Song / Gurus of Gold Return / Oscar History and TFF Continues

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SOME UPDATES AND FIRST PREDICTIONS

I'm updating the acting categories and providing first guesses in the Costume, Makeup/Hair and Original Song categories.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 14th.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women (4)
5) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet (5)
6) Lupita Nyong'o/Us

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency


BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time... (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)
6) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (4)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (5)
6) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, DaVine Joy Randolph/My Name Is Dolemite


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time... (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (5)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (3)
5) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (4)
6) Alan Alda/Marriage Story (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Tracy Letts/Ford v Ferrari


And now for the first time predictions for Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...
2) Dolemite Is My Name
3) Little Women
4) Rocketman
5) Downton Abbey
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Harriet, The Irishman, Judy


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Rocketman
4) Joker
5) Judy
6) The Two Popes

Other possibles: The Irishman, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) Stand Up/Harriet
3) Beautiful Ghosts/Cats
4) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
5) Spirit/The Lion King
6) Speechless/Aladdin

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough



AND THE GURUS RETURN (AND I GET TO BE ONE AGAIN)

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold, a collective of Oscar "experts" who have agreed to have our predictions accumulated and added together for a consensus set of predictions, has returned for this Oscar season.

MCN's Ray Pride has added us all together and the focus for this first wave of predictions is on Best Picture and the acting races.

The links are as follows:

Gurus on Best Picture

Gurus on the acting races

Give them a gander.

I am honored to be included with Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit, Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com, Dave Karger/TCM, IMDb, Peter Howell/The Toronto Star and a bunch of others.


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF CONTINUES

The project continues today with a look back at the same three categories that I provided my first predictions for above: Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

BEST COSTUMES

1985- The Journey of Natty Gann
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac-WINNER
1993- The Piano
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
2000- Crouching Dragon Hidden Tiger, Quills
2003- Girl with a Pearl Earring
2005- Walk the Line
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Bright Star, Before Coco Chanel
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2013- 12 Years a Slave, Invisible Woman
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land
2017- The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
2018- The Favourite


Overall 20 nominations and one win.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1990- Cyrano de Bergerac
1994- Ed Wood-WINNER
2000- Shadow of the Vampire
2002- Frida-WINNER
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-WINNER (scenes screened)
2010- The Way Back
2011- Albert Nobbs
2014- Foxcatcher
2017- Darkest Hour-WINNER
2018- Border

Overall 10 nominations and four wins.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2002- Frida
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2008- Slumdog Millionaire (x2)- WINNER
2010- 127 Hours
2016- La La Land (x2)-WINNER

Overall eight nominations and two wins.


That's Thursday.


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Oscar Predictions Updated for Picture, Director and Screenplays / New Predictions for Cinematography, Score and Production Design / Oscar History and TFF / The True Story Behind The Aeronauts / Tracy Letts Talks Ford

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATED

Continuing today with the new Oscar prediction schedule that will take us right up to the announcement of Oscar nominations on Jan. 13th.

Here's the latest updated predictions for Best Picture, Director and both Screenplay categories as well as first time predictions for Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design.  For the updates I have indicated the last time I posted them as well as that film's position in that previous posting.  As always all films from TFF #46 are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (last update on Oct. 28th)

1) Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (1)

2) The Irishman (2)

3) Parasite (4)

4) Marriage Story (3)

5) Jojo Rabbit (5)

6) The Two Popes (6)

7) 1917 (7)

8) Bombshell (8)

9) Ford v Ferrari (-)

10) Joker (-)

Other possibles: The Farewell, Little Women, Judy, Just Mercy

Notes: with its actual release to theaters, Ford v. Ferrari makes a move.

BEST DIRECTION (last update on Nov. 7th)

1) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (2)

2) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (1)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)

5) Sam Mendes/1917 (5)

6) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari

Notes: Bong makes a move to the top spot.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Last updated on Nov. 4th)

1) Jojo Rabbit (2)

2) The Irishman (3)

3) The Two Popes (1)

4) Little Women (4)

5) Joker (-)

6) Just Mercy (-)

Other possibles: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Hustlers, Downton Abbey

Notes: Nice jump up for Jojo Rabbit. A lot of uncertainty about which category The Two Popes will end up in.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Last updated on Oct. 31st)

1) Marriage Story (1)

2) Once Upon a Time... (2)

3) Parasite (3)

4) The Farewell (4)

5) Bombshell (5)

6) Ford v Ferrari (-)

Other possibles: Knives Out, Dolemite Is My Name, 1917

NEW OSCAR PREDICTIONS

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Once upon a Time...

2) The Irishman

3) 1917

4) A Hidden Life

5) Parasite

6) Ad Astra

Other possibles: The Lighthouse, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Little Women

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2) Little Women

3) 1917

4) Marriage Story

5) Ford v Ferrari

6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Waves, The Irishman, Ad Astra

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...

2) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

3) The Irishman

4) Little Women

5) The Two Popes

6) Cats

Other possibles; 1917, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Downton Abbey, Jojo Rabbit

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF

Matching the new categories added to this wave of Oscar predictions, here's the history of Oscar nominations for the films that played at the Telluride Film Festival in the Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design (Art and/or Set Direction) categories:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1993- The Piano, Farewell My Concubine
1995- Shanghai Triad
1996- Fly Away Home
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2001- Amelie
2002- City of God
2003- Girl with a Pearl Earring
2004- The House of Flying Daggers
2005- Brokeback Mountain
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- The White Ribbon
2010- The King's Speech, Black Swan
2011- The Artist
2013- Gravity-WINNER, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, Prisoners
2014- Birdman-WINNER
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Moonlight, Arrival
2017- The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
2018- Roma-WINNER, The Favourite, Cold War

Overall 32 nominations and six wins.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2002- Frida-WINNER
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER
2006- Babel- WINNER
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2010- The King's Speech, 127 Hours
2011- The Artist-WINNER
2012- Argo
2013- Gravity-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Moonlight
2017- The Shape of Water-WINNER

Overall 16 nominations and a remarkable nine wins.


BEST ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN

1990- Cyrano de Bergerac
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER, Quills
2007- Amelie
2003- The Girl with the Pearl Earring
2007- There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- WINNER (scenes screened)
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2013- 12 Years a Slave, Gravity
2014- The Imitation Game
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Arrival
2017- The Shape of Water-WINNER, Darkest Hour
2018- Roma, The Favourite, First Man

Overall 20 nominations and four wins.


THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE AERONAUTS

Pathikrit Sanyal writes of the actual incidents that inspired the creation of the Tom Harper film The Aeronauts starring Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones.

As you might expect, the real story differs at points from the actual incidents including the fact that the ascent depicted in the film was made by two men rather than a man and a woman.

Here is that story from MEAWW.com.


TRACY LETTS TALKS FORD

Entertainment Weekly posted this Derek Lawrence interview with actor and writer Tracy Letts.  Letts plays Henry Ford II, the Ford of Ford v Ferrari.

Ford v Ferrari is in theaters now having opened this past weekend and winning the top box office spot.

Here's the link to the Letts interview at EW.com


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Oscar Predictions Expand / So Much Content...Interviews and Profiles: The Report, Waves, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story, Diego Maradona, Uncut Gems, Tell Me Who I Am, Parasite and Pain and Glory / Oscar History and TFF: Documentary and Animated Feature

OSCAR PREDICTIONS EXPAND

With Oscar nominations announced in just two months (Jan. 13th), I'm expanding nomination predictions beginning with today's post.

I have the categories broken into groups so that over the course of each couple of weeks, I'll be updating each of the 21 feature categories.  I'll add the three Shorts categories as we approach nomination morning in January.

Today I'll be updating all four of the acting categories as well as making first attempts for nomination predictions for Documentary, Animated Feature and Film Editing.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 11th for Best Actress and Actor.  Supporting Actress and Actor were last updated on Oct. 21 and 24 respectively.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.



BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Woman (4)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (5)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (-)

Other possibles: Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (4)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (-)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, Thomasin McKenzie/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (4)
4) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (5)
5) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Shia Labeouf/Honey Boy

And now for first predictions in three categories:

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) One Child Nation
4) Sea of Shadows
5) The Cave

Other possibles: Knock Down the House, Honeyland, The Kingmaker, The Biggest Little Farm(*TFF #45)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) The Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) How to Train Your Dragon/Hidden World

Other possibles: Klaus, Abominable, Funan

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time in ... Hollywood
4) 1917
5) Parasite

Other possibles: Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes

MTFB's next post will include updates for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplays and first time predictions for Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design.


SO MUCH CONTENT...INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

A blizzard of interviews and profiles have appeared over the last few days regarding films that played at TFF #46.  I've tried to capture many of them to connect them for you.  Here's the retrospective:


The Report's writer/director Scott Z. Burns talks to Brian Welk for The Wrap

The Reports' Annette Bening talks to Jessica Zack for The San Francisco Chronicle's Datebook

Waves' writer director Trey Edward Shults talks to Jacqueline Coley for Rotten Tomatoes

Waves' cast members talk to Mackenzie Nichols for Variety

Motherless Brooklyn director and screen writer Edward Norton talks to Anne Thompson for Indiewire

Ford v Ferrari director James Mangold talks to Anthony D'Alessandro for Deadline

Mangold also talks to John Horn for The Frame

Mangold talks to Anne Thompson of Indiewire

Marriage Story's Alan Alda talks to Eric Kohn for Indiewire

Marriage Story's Laura Dern talks to Erin Nyren for Variety

Diego Maradona director Asif Kapadia talks to Annie Howard for The Hollywood Reporter

Uncut Gems' Adam Sandler talks to Latesha Harris for Variety

Twins Alex and Marcus Lewis, the focus of the doc Tell Me Who I Am,  talk to Matthew Carey for Deadline

Parasite's writer/director Bong Joon-ho talks to Patrick Bzeski for The Hollywood Reporter

Parasite actors Park So-dam and Choi Woo-shik talk to Demi Kampakis for The Film Stage

Pain and Glory actor Antonio Banderas talks to Latesha Harris for Variety




OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURE

The project continues documenting the history of Oscar nominees and the Telluride Film Festival with a look at Documentary Feature and Animated Feature nominees from the fest through the years.


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1981- Eight Minutes to Midnight
1983- Seeing Red
1984- The Times of Harvey Milk-WINNER
1989- Super Chief: The Life and Legacy of Earl Warren
1991- Wild by Law
1996- Ayn Rand: A Sense of Life
2002- Bowling for Columbine-WINNER
2003- The Fog of War-WINNER
2007- Encounters at the End of the World
2010- Inside Job-WINNER
2011- Pina
2012- The Gatekeepers
2013- The Missing Picture, The Act of Killing
2014- Salt of the Earth
2015- The Look of Silence, Winter on Fire
2016- Fires at Sea
2017- Faces Places
2018- Free Solo-WINNER

Overall 20 nominations and five wins.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

2002- Spirited Away-WINNER
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2007- Persepolis
2010- Chico and Rita, The Illusionist
2013- The Wind Rises
2015- Anomalisa
2017- Loving Vincent

Overall eight nominations and one win.


That's Thursday.

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Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature / Oscar Predictions Update: Actress and Actor / EFA Nominations Announced / Interviews From Marriage Story

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Here's my first crack at parsing the likely nominees for the newly renamed Best International Feature category for the Academy Awards.  As always films from TFF are in Bold.

1) Parasite

2) Pain and Glory

3) Les Miserables

4) Atlantics

5) Monos

Other Possibles: And Then We Danced, Beanpole, The Painted Bird.

Notes: Honestly, the perception right now is that Parasite is so solid as the front runner for this Oscar that it seems a foregone conclusion that it will not only be nominated but will also win and that the rest of the field is playing for the proverbial "just honored to be nominated" status.  But then, remember Toni Erdmann...

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's my latest updated predictions for Best Actress and Actor nominations.  I last updated the Best Actress prediction on Oct. 14th and Best Actor on Oct. 17th.

The latest predictions are listed in order of likelihood with their past position indicated in parentheses.  as is my custom, TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (-)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
4) Saorise Ronan/Little Women (-)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency.

Notes: Theron coming on like a freight train as some folks have actually seen Bombshell.  Zellweger still has a solid grasp on the top spot.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Notes: The category is relatively stable over the last three weeks.  Murphy sneaks in over Banderas and DeNiro...at least for now.

EFA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The European Film Academy announced the nominees for their awards for superlatives in European films for the past year and they included films from both TFF #46 and TFF #45.

TFF nominees included:

Pain and Glory nominated for Best European Film, Antonio Banderas/Best Actor, Pedro Almodovar/Best Director, Pedro Almodovar/Best Screenwriter.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Celine Sciamma/Best Director, Noemie Merlant and Adele Haenel/Best Actress, Celine Sciamma/Best Screenwriter

Beanpole: Viktoria Miroshnichenko/Best Actress

The Favourite (from TFF #45) Best European Film, Olivia Colman/Best Actress, Yorgos Lanthimos/Best Director

The complete list of nominees except for animated films is linked here from Deadline.

INTERVIEWS FROM MARRIAGE STORY

As Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story got its limited theatrical release this week and with its streaming release less than a month away (Dec. 6th) we are seeing more and more about the film including interviews with its principals.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Noah Baumbach

Baz Bamigboye of The Daily Mail talks to Adam Driver

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch talks to Alan Alda


That's Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Prediction Update: Best Director / Oscar History and TFF: Best Foreign Language-International Film / The Two Popes Has a Trailer

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST DIRECTOR

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (3)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (1)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)

5) Sam Mendes/1917 (-)

Other Possibles: Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Meirellles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker, Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Lulu Wang/The Farewell

Notes:  A bit of shuffling at the top with Bong Joon-ho and Tarantino in a dead heat and Scorsese close behind. Also, there's been a fairly substantial surge for Sam Mendes and 1917.

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF-FOREIGN LANGUAGE/INTERNATIONAL FILM

Here's my continuation of the complete series of nominations for TFF films for each of the 21 feature film categories.  Today's review is for the recently renamed film category that has been called Foreign Language Film and has been renamed International Feature beginning with this year's Oscars.

Here's the history:

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1981- Three Brothers
1983- Carmen, Entre Nous
1984- Camila
1985- Colonel Redl
1986- The Decline of the American Empire, My Secret Little Village
1987- Babbette's Feast-WINNER, Au Revoir Les Enfants
1988- Salaam Bombay, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
1989- Cinema Paradiso-WINNER
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac, The Nasty Girl, Ju Don
1991- Raise the Red Lantern, Oxen
1993- Farewell My Concubine
1994- Dust of Life, Strawberry and Chocolate
1996- Koyla
1998- Central Station, Tango
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2001- Amelie, No Man's Land
2002- Man Without a Past
2003- The Barbarian Invasions
2005- Paradise Now
2006- The Lives of Others-WINNER
2007- The Counterfeiters-WINNER
2008- Waltz with Bashir, Revanche
2009- The White Ribbon, A Prophet
2010- Incendies
2011- A Separation-WINNER, In Darkness, Footnote
2012- Amour-WINNER, A Royal Affair, No
2014- Ida- WINNER, Leviathan, Wild Tales
2015- Son of Saul-WINNER
2016- Toni Erdmann
2017- A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless
2018- Roma-WINNER, Cold War, Shoplifters

Overall 53 nominations and 10 wins.


THE TWO POPES HAS A TRAILER

Fernando Meirelles' The Two Popes debuted at Telluride over Labor Day weekend to a great response.  I've said it before, by the time I got to the last day and a half of the fest the film I was hearing the most buzz about was The Two Popes.

Now Netflix, prepping the film for its release on Nov. 27th followed by its Netflix bow on Dec. 20th, has dropped a new trailer for the film.

Here's that from YouTube:

Also, here's the link to the story about the trailer release from The Hollywood Reporter.


As a bonus, here's a link to an interview with Two Popes screenwriter Anthony McCarten from Gold Derby.


That's Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions Update: Adapted Screenplay / Latest Big Eight Count / Oscar History and TFF: Adapted Screenplay / Sasha Stone Has a New Thing

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

I'm posting my latest take on the Best Adapted Screenplay race today.  My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd.  Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses.  TFF #46 films are Bold.


1) The Two Popes (1)
2) Jojo Rabbit (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Little Women (-)
5) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

Other possibles: Joker, Just Mercy, Ford v. Ferrari, Hustlers

Notes:  The top three contenders: Popes, Jojo and Irishman seem to be in very solid position.  After that it gets murkier.  Little Women has come on strong during the past month almost certainly as screening reactions have started appearing via social media but is no lock and a fifth nominee is totally up in the air.


LATEST BIG EIGHT COUNT

According to my latest predictions in each of the Big Eight Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay), here's were TFF #46 films stand in as far as those categories are concerned:

Marriage Story (6): Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
The Two Popes (4): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Parasite (3): Picture, Director, Original Screenplay
Judy (1): Actress
Pain and Glory (1): Actor
The Report (1): Supporting Actress


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:


1989- My Left Foot
1990- Reversal of Fortune
1996- Sling Blade-WINNER
2000- Crouching Tiger  Hidden Dragon
2002- City of God
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER, Capote
2006- Little Children
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Up in the Air, An Education
2010- 127 Hours
2011- The Descendants
2012- Argo-WINNER
2013- 12 Years a Slave-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game-WINNER
2015- Room, Carol
2016- Moonlight-WINNER, Arrival
2018- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Overall 24 nominees and seven wins.



SASHA STONE HAS A NEW THING

Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone has added a new podcast to that realm called Gold Tripping.  The podcast is billed as Sasha looking back at her 20 year involvement in handicapping the Oscar race and her life during that time.

Here's the link to the new podcast.

Give it a listen.


That's Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

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