Oscar Predix in a Time of Uncertainty / Cannes Deadlines Extended / R-e-s-p-e-c-t M-o-v-e-s

OSCAR PREDIX IN A TIME OF UNCERTAINTY

Erik Anderson who runs Oscar predicting website Awards Watch came out this week with predictions for Best Picture, Directing and all four acting categories.

He did so with full disclaimers about not really knowing what the film world might look like for the rest of 2020.

So I played with Anderson's guesses in as far as potential Telluride players.  The 10 films he predicts as Best Picture players are:

Ammonite
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Next Goal Wins
Nomadland
On the Rocks
The Trial of the Chicago 7
West Side Story

So, I thought I'd rank these 10 films in order of their TFF #47 chances.  Remember that over the past few years Telluride has averaged nearly three films that end up as Best Picture nominees.

1) Nomadland
2) On the Rocks
3) Mank
4) Ammonite
5) Next Goal Wins
6) The Trial of the Chicago 7
7) Minari
8) Da 5 Bloods
9) News of the World
10) West Side Story

Interestingly, Anderson lists another 15 films as he makes his predictions in the other five categories in his post.  When you look at those you'll see some things jump out. 

For example, Netflix is just represented in his list of 10 Best Pic predictions by Da 5 Bloods and Mank but he has an additional six Netflix films scattered throughout these five categories: Hillbilly Elegy, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Midnight Sky, Blonde, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, The Life Ahead and The Prom.

Netflix's robust presence over the past five years and especially the past two suggests that looking at Netflix's lineup should tell us to expect around 4-5 titles as Telluride possibilities.

Long time Telluride presence Sony Pictures Classics has a couple of films in this list of 15 additional films.  One is The Father which bowed at Sundance and as such is an unlikely to play TFF.  The other is French Exit starring Michelle Pfeiffer.  So that's something to consider.

The complete post from Anderson is linked here.


CANNES DEADLINES EXTENDED

As we await word about the ultimate fate about the Cannes Festival-postponement to June/July.. postponement to an even later date in 2020...or perhaps even cancellation for 2020...and then what that domino falls, how it will affect the other film fest dominoes on the calendar... we got word this week that the organizers had extended deadlines for submissions as a way of dealing with the rupture that has occurred in the film industry as a result of Covid-19.

Details of those extensions are here from Variety and The Wrap.

Meanwhile, a Cannes Film Fest focal point, the Palais de Festival has been transformed into a homeless shelter to provide shelter during France's Covid-19 lockdown.

Indiewire has that story linked here.


R-E-S-P-E-C-T  M-O-V-E-S

Photo of Jennifer Hudson and Aretha Franklin via Vanity Fair

The Aretha Franklin biopic starring Jennifer Hudson hasn't been on my TFF radar as its release date was set for some time to be for August.  However, this past week that date was moved to Christmas Day.  So suddenly, assuming that date holds, maybe we have to think about the film as a possibility.

Speculation was that the date change was only partially due to the Coronavirus pandemic.  Roger Friedman's Showbiz 911 suggests that Hudson is getting a lot of Oscar buzz and that could have also been a factor in the decision.

The Showbiz 911 story is kinked here.


And here's the early teaser for the film via YouTube:

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Word on the Street / 25 Films for Cannes? / Inarritu's Return?

WORD ON THE STREET

As best as I can tell, we got our first word about the status of the 47th Telluride Film Festival from a story posted on The Denver Post's "The Know" website.  That story was posted Tuesday.  The post focused on any number of film related activities in Colorado for the rest of 2020 and their status at this point in relation to the Covid-19 health crisis.

Included as a part of the story was an assessment concerning film festivals within the state including TFF #47.  The relevant paragraph is here:

"The popular Film on the Rocks program at Red Rocks Amphitheatre is scheduled to go on as planned this summer, pending city restrictions, Erickson said. Separate from Denver Film, so is the 47th Telluride Film Festival, an internationally acclaimed event (scheduled for Sept. 4-7) where many Oscar-winning features make their debut, according to a spokeswoman."

So, the status at the moment for TFF #47 is a go. 

The complete Denver Post/The Know story is linked here.

Complicating matters, as I have been detailing here for the past few weeks, is the decision by organizers of the Cannes Film Festival to postpone that fest.  Reports have been that the Cannes soiree is likely to be re-set for late June or early July.  At least that's the plan for the moment. 

The reality is that what form Cannes will take for 2020, when it will happen or even if it will happen still seem to be relevant questions.  And, again, not to beat the drum too much, but the Cannes/Telluride overlap of  titles from year to year is substantial averaging 7.5 films shared per year which, again on average, means that Cannes titles are somewhere in the neighborhood of nearly 20% of the feature films that screen at TFF. 

The point being that whatever Cannes does will have some ripple effect in as far as TFF #47 os concerned.

More to come, as I will continue monitoring for whatever information I can find for both T-ride and Cannes in the coming days.

Now...speaking of Cannes...again....


25 FILMS FOR CANNES

In the midst of uncertainty regarding the fate and form of the 73rd Cannes Film Fest, Indiewire writers (Eric Kohn, David Ehrlich, Kate Erbland, Ryan Lattanzio and Zack Sharf) posted their 25 film Cannes wish list earlier this week.  Not only is is a "wish list" but it's also a list of films with very high Cannes potential.

So, as is my custom, I took a look at what the Indiewire folks were pointing at and whether some of the films they are signaling might have a shot at screening at The SHOW.

Here's what I found as TFF possibles:

Annette/dir: Leos Carax.  Why? It features one of last year's TFF tribute recipients, Adam Driver as well as TFF #39 tribute recipient Marion Cotillard.  It's from Amazon Studios.  It has no set U.S, release date but IMDb says it is set for a Nov. 27th release in Turkey.

Bergman Island/dir: Mia Hansen Love.  Why?  Hansen-Love has made Telluride appearances before: Goodbye First Love, Things to Come). 

The French Dispatch/dir: Wes Anderson.  "Hold up there Newt"  my mind hears some of you saying..."The French Dispatch is set for release on July 24th".  And, yeah, that's true...for the moment.  I suspect that July 24th date was set with a Cannes bow in mind in May.  Now that the Cannes date has changed, I think a whole different strategy might emerge for the film.  The film is under The Searchlight banner (new since the Disney folks dropped the word "Fox" from in front of Searchlight) and I could see them deciding that a new release date after some fall fest presence might be a smart play even with a Cannes that premiered the film in late June/July.  It's still an unlikely TFF choice but now it's not outside of the realm of possibility.

Summer of '85/dir: Francois Ozon.  Ozon has played TFF before with 2016's Frantz. 

Where Is Anne Frank/dir: Ari Folman.  The director of Waltz with Bashir (TFF #35) returns with this animated meditation on Anne Frank. 

The Woman in the Window/dir: Joe Wright.  A film that was on my TFF #46 watchlist for some time and then got dropped when its release date was changed.  It could be back in the convo for TFF #47 if it does make a Cannes appearance.  Certainly there are plenty of TFF connectives involved: Wright who was at TFF #44.  Stars Amy Adams (TFF #43 tribute), Jennifer Jason Leigh (TFF #20 tribute and back in 2007 with Margot at the Wedding), Gary Oldman (at TFF #44 with Darkest Hour). Writer Tracy Letts (at TFF #44 with Lady Bird).  Who knows?

The complete compilation of 25 films on he Indiewire wish list is linked here .



INARRITU'S RETURN?

News from Mexico is that multiple Oscar winner and frequent Telluride presence, Alejandro Inarritu os prepping his next feature film. 

Inarritu hasn't directed a feature since 2015's The Revenant.  His last film at TFF was 2014's Oscar winner Birdman.  He has also screened Babel and Biutiful at TFF as well as being a frequent guest and attendee of the fest often in support of Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity and Roma) and Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water).

The Film Stage reports that Inarritu has begun very preliminary prep work in Mexico City.

Despite the fact that The Revenant did not make a play at TFF, you still have to believe that, if the timing were right, a new Inarritu would be a very big possibility for a TFF bow.

Here's the link to The Film Stage story.



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The Cannes Postponement / Spike in Looks

THE CANNES POSTPONEMENT

Not long after I posted last Thursday morning we got the news that Cannes Film Festival organizers had announced that the Festival is postponed for the time being.  Various reports indicate that the current desire is to attempt to mount the fest in late June or early July.

That plan apparently envisions a physical presentation of film the would mirror as best as possible the "normal" Cannes experience in terms of film presentation, awards etc.

Whether that happens at that time and in that fashion is an open question.

Most of the analysis that I have seen coming from the film press covering Cannes for the last few days has focused primarily on the disruption in the film sales market that has already resulted from the outbreak of Covid-19 as well as the continued disruption vis-a-vis film sales which is a huge component of the Cannes experience each year.

From this blog's perspective, this news is viewed through the lense of TFF.  Does Cannes' decision to postpone alter what screens at T-ride?  If so, how and to what extent?  Should Cannes take place in some virtual form rather than the traditional screenings...does that change Telluride?  If Cannes organizers ultimately conclude the French fest isn't going to happen in 2020...

I don't pretend to know any of the answers nor do I have any predictions or prescriptions.

It is worth noting that there is some reporting that suggests that a no-Cannes summer could result in more first time screenings at fall fests including Telluride.  That comes from both this Deadline story.  The Deadline story also specifically mentions a few films that most insiders believe to have been already headed to Cannes that would be looking for a different place to land should Cannes not be able to go forward including The French Dispatch (which, as far as I know, is still scheduled to open in July), Annette, Tre Piani and Memoria.


Additionally, this Variety story says that a spokesman for the Venice Film Fest says that "nobody is questioning the fate of Toronto and Telluride".

I have linked other news concerning Cannes from the last few days below:

Screen International from last Thursday's Cannes postponement announcement.

Variety's coverage of Thursday's announcement.

Screen International from this morning.



SPIKE IN LOOKS

I'm not sure why but MTFB has had a substantial spike in views over the past few days.  In this "off-season" for the Blog, it's a good day of there are over 100 hits/day.  This past 10 days the blog has been hit over 2,000 times with 1,200 of that coming on Mar. 13th, 16th and 20th-the last three publication dates.

Reasons?  Maybe an increased interest in this time period because of the uncertain status of Cannes.  Maybe people using a few minutes of their self-isolation to catch up on Telluride.  I'm not sure but it's certainly noticeable.

I'll be watching to see if the trend continues with today's post.



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Cannes Questions Linger as Film Market Could Go Virtual / History Completed / New Twitter

CANNES QUESTIONS LINGER AS FILM MARKET COULD GO VIRTUAL

Photo of Cannes flag via The Playlist

Covid-19 continues to re-shape all elements of the world including how the film industry works.  Normally, the Cannes Film Festival, in addition to its flashy festival,  serves as a hub of film sales for global markets.  Now, both Variety's Nick Vivarelli and The Playlist's Charles Barfield are reporting that there is movement to potentially creating a virtual film market in the event that Cannes does not happen in May.

Vivarelli reports that a couple of possible virtual markets are at least in the talking stage.

The last official line from the fest itself is that a determination about whether it will go forward or not will be made prior to Apr. 15th.  That's the day before Cannes has said it would announce the lineup for its 73rd edition.

Of course, our focus in this space on the situation with Cannes stems from the fact that Telluride often programs a number of titles from various of the Cannes platforms to screen at TFF each year.  The average is around 7-8 films that play both Cannes and TFF.

The effect of a year where Cannes does not happen is uncertain.

Here are the links to the two stories mentioned above:

Vivarelli in Variety

Barfield in The Playlist


HISTORY COMPLETED

If you read last Monday's post you know that a disaster befell "The Expanded Telluride Film Festival History Part 2: 1996-Present" page over the weekend and that, at one point I had lost the the whole thing.

However, after some nifty Google hoop-jumping that saved about half of it and the use of a big chunk of Spring Break time, that History is back and more.  Today's post serves to announce that the full on three project to provide a semi-detailed look at each festival's SHOWs, Guests, Tribute recipients, Guest Directors and Special Medallion recipients has been completed to the extent possible through TFF #46.

I'm keeping the "Selected TFF History" page alive for the time being for those who don't necessarily feel compelled to jump that deeply into TFF's past.

Here's the direct link to the newly completed history page.

Enjoy!


NEW TWITTER

Well, I'm adding a new Twitter account linked to the blog.  For years @Gort2 has been my Twitter handle and I'm not giving it up, but I am adding a Twitter account that will be more exclusively TFF and fim related that has a handle that seems more intuitively connected to the blog itself...so follow if you want..or don't.  It's an experiment and I could change my mind about its utility.

Nevertheless, the new/added Twitter account is @TheMTFB. 



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Cannes and Covid-19 / Sometimes History Disappears

CANNES AND COVID-19

Speculation and responses to that speculation continue in France regarding the status of the Cannes Film Festival as the Covid-19 pandemic continues.

Some outlets in France have claimed that the decision has already been made and that the 73rd edition of the festival will not go on.  Pushback from fest organizers has been adamant that no decision has been made and ultimately won't be made until April 15th.  That's the day before the official announcement of the slate of films is scheduled to occur.

I have linked three stories regarding the Cannes/Covid-19 situation here:

Reportage from Deadline

The story from Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

The Playlist on Cannes decision happening on April 15th.

Stay tuned...


SOMETIMES HISTORY DISAPPEARS

If you've been reading along recently, you know that I have been closing in on finishing the expanded history of the Telluride Film Festival.  As of my last post I was down to the last four years of the fest to be added and thus completing what has been a nearly three year project (I was back tracking old posts the other day and discovered the first entry of the expanded history for TFF #32 was posted on April 10, 2017).

So, there I was, typing away this past week.  I had gotten TFF #43 and #44 added and had just begun the work to get TFF #45 onto the Expended History page and...I don't know what buttons I pushed...but something happened and the entire Expanded History Part Two since 1996 was gone.  And I mean gone.

Fortunately, after some Google search work and using Google's Cache function, I was able to retrieve all of the text that had been on the History thru TFF #37.  With some work, I was able to resurrect the poster photos for each of the fests from TFF #23 (1996) to TFF #37.

That then  was re-published and should you look at the Expended History this morning you'll see that I have also re-added the work past TFF #37 to include the full entries for TFF #38 through TFF #40.

I'm currently on Spring Break and hermiting it up so I'm going to see if I can finish the project by the end of this week.  And I'll try not to mistakenly repeat the sequence of keystrokes that made the original posts of each TFF magically disappear.


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RIP Max Von Sydow / The History Continues #41 and #42

RIP MAX VON SYDOW

Photo from the BBC

Legendary Swedish actor Max Von Sydow died on Sunday, March 8th.  He was 90.  The venerable star was nominated for an Oscar twice.  Once for Best ACtor for Pelle the Conqueror in 1988 and for Best Supporting Actor in 2012 for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Among hs numerous film credits were:


The Seventh Seal
Wild Strawberries
The Emigrants
The Exorcist
Three Days of the Condor
Pelle the Conqueror***
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Shutter Island
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close***
Echoes of the Past

Of course, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly played TFF in 2007.

Von Sydow's last film is Echoes of the Past which IMDb lists as being in post-production.


THE HISTORY CONTINUES

My project to complete the Expanded History section of this blog has continued with my recent additions of information for TFFs 41 and 42 (2014 and 2015).

Among the films that were screened at T-ride in 2014 were: Apocalypse Now (the film was a tribute recipient), Birdman, California Split, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, Leviathan, The Look of Silence, Two Days One Night, Wild and Wild Tales.


Guests included: Steve Carrel, Francis Ford Coppola, Laura Dern, Alejandro Inarritu, Tommy Lee Jones, Jon Stewart, Channing Tatum, Reese Witherspoon and tributee Hilary Swank.

2015 films included: 45 Years, Anomalisa, Beats of No Nation, Black Mass, Carol, He Named Me Malala, Room, Son of Saul, Spotlight, Steve Jobs and Suffragette.

Guests included: Laurie Anderson, Idris Elba, Cari Fukunaga, Todd Haynes, Michael Keaton, Brie Larson, Rachel McAdams, Seth Rogen, Aaron Sorkin, Meryl Streep and Kaye Winslet.

The new segments are on The Expanded Telluride Film Festival History Part Two: 1996-Present page of this blog.

Four more years to add...

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Opening Some Cannes / Philip Kaufman Honored

OPENING SOME CANNES

Indiewire's Eric Kohn wrote Friday about the possible effects of the worldwide outbreak of Coronavirus on the upcoming Cannes Festival.

Kohn's article spends some time addressing the ripple effect that could occur should festival organizers alter or even postpone or cancel the fest altogether.  Included in that assessment is mention of  of the fall festivals, including Telluride, as possible landing places for films that might have been included in the Cannes lineup.

With the cancellation of South by Southwest announced over this past weekend, the discussion about what happens with the films that were going to bow there has begun.

Of particular note is the fact that TFF has been, for some time, a common landing spot for North American first screenings for films that originally premiere at Cannes.  As I have noted here many times, in an average year, Cannes and TFF will share 7-8 films.  Last year's Palme d'Or winner, Parasite, played at Telluride as its first U.S. among a number of other U.S. film fests on its way to the Best Picture Oscar.

Adding to the Cannes discussion is the official reveal that Cannes will announce its lineup on April 16th.

It seems likely, to me at least, that Covid-19 is probably going to create some wrinkles to this year's film festival plans and what those wrinkles might be are difficult to predict. 

I have linked the Indiewire post about Cannes here.

Also the Cannes announcement regarding when they reveal their lineup is linked here.


PHILIP KAUFMAN HONORED

Photo via The Hollywood Reporter

You'll recall that director/writer Philip Kaufman was feted last year in as a tribute recipient of TFF #46.  Now comes news that the 83 year old is being honored again by the Cinematheque Francaise.  The Hollywood Reporter provided that information that Kaufman was receiving a Lifetime Tribute from that organization.

Kaufman's career has included such films as The Right Stuff, The Unbearable Lightness of Being and Quills.  Kaufman  is also an Oscar nominee for the screenplay of The Unbearable Lightness of Being, a 1988 release.  That film was screened last Labor Day at Telluride as a part of the TFF Tribute.

Kaufman is also giving a master class in France following a screening of The Wanderers.

The THR story is linked here.


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Gone, Gone, Gone / Gold Derby Looks at Oscar 2021...

GONE, GONE, GONE

Indiewire's Ryan Lattanzio wrote a piece that went up on Sunday afternoon...after passes went on sale for TFF #47.  Of most import to MTFB readers was the inclusion of some title speculation for this year's iteration of TFF.  Some of those titles you've seen consistently in this space.  Some are new...

Among the films mentioned in the article:

Mank
Nomadland
Hillbilly Elegy
Dune
Minari
Passing

I was able to purchase mine after a tense few minutes and a couple of hiccups.  That means that my wife and I will be attending our 15th consecutive fest.

The entire Lattanzio post is linked here.


You may notice that friend of MTFB Chris Schiller's tweet about the pass sale made the article.


GOLD DERBY LOOKS AT OSCAR 2021...

I've been dipping into the early Oscar speculation for the coming year as a way of gathering clues fro films that could also be on the lineup announcement for TFF #47 six months from now.  Gold Derby's look is among the most thorough around and provides us with a multiplicity of candidates to consider.

Their 2021 preview provides release date info, director and distributor.  All of those items can help as we try to sniff out some Telluride potentials.

So, what can we find that seems like it's worth contemplating for TFF from the Gold Derby list.  Among their "Leading Contenders:

The Father/Zeller/Sony Pictures Classics/Fall
Hillbilly Elegy/Howard/Netflix/Fall
MacBeth/Coen/A24/Fall
Mank/Fincher/Netflix/Fall
News of the World/Greengrass/Universal/Dec. 25
Next Goal Wins/Waititi/Searchlight/Fall
Nightmare Alley/Del Toro/Searchlight/Fall
Trial of the Chicago 7/Sorkin/Paramount/Sept. 25

Among their "Strong Contenders":

Ammonite/Lee/Neon/Fall
Dune/Villeneuve/Warner Bros./Dec. 18
Good Morning, Midnight/Clooney/Netflix/Fall
Ironbark/Cooke/Lionsgate/Fall
On the Rocks/S. Coppola/A24/Fall
Prisoner 760/Macdonald/BBC/Fall
Stillwater/McCarthy/Focus/Nov. 6


And from their "Possible Contenders":

Annette/Carax/Amazon/Fall
Blonde/Dominik/Netflix/Fall
The Eyes of Tammy Faye/Showalter/Searchlight/Fall
French Exit/Jacobs/Sony Picture Classics/Fall
Nomadland/Zhao/Searchlight/Fall
Red, White and Water/Neugebauer/A24/Fall

The complete Gold Derby post is linked here.


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And the Golden Bear Goes to... / The Critics Berlin / More Additions to TFF History

AND THE GOLDEN BEAR GOES TO...

Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil took the top prize. the Golden Bear, from the just concluded Berlin International Films Festival.  The award came from the Jury led this year by Jeremy Irons.

Rasoulof was a recipient of a tribute from the Telluride Film Festival in 2013 during TFF #40.  That included a screening of Manuscripts Don't Burn.  Rasoulof was back in Telluride in 2017 with A Man of Integrity.

Rasoulof was not allowed to attend the Berlin Fest by the Iranian government.

The Golden Bear win doesn't guarantee that There Is No Evil ends up at Telluride but it also likely doesn't harm its potential.  The last Golden Bear winner to play TFF was Fire at Sea in 2016.  Other recent Golden Bear winners that went on to play TFF include Asghar Farhadi's A Separation and Jafar Panahi's Taxi.


THE CRITICS BERLIN

Returning to the massive database of critical response to the films screened at Berlin that is compiled by Reini Urban; here is the final look at films that I have highlighted as possible considerations for TFF #47  (on a 10 point scale)

Pinocchio 7.39
The Woman Who Ran 7.17
Undine 6.89
There Is No Evil 6.76
Charlatan 6.20
The Salt of Tears 5.49
Irradiated 5.43
Siberia 4.95

The complete rundown is here.

Metacritic also had a critical compilation post over the weekend for Berlin films and among the films they mentioned from the above list were (on a 100 point scale):

There Is No Evil 79
The Woman Who Ran 81
Charlatan 65
Undine 69
The Salt of Tears 57

Metacritic's article is linked here.


And finally, Indiewire's Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson talk about the Berlinale in this week's episode of their podcast Screen Talk.  Both Pinocchio and Undine are specifically mentioned.

The link to Screen Talk is here.

Thompson, Kohn and David Ehrlich collaborated to also publish an article detailing the films that they thought were the 10 best of Berlin.  That list included: Charlatan, Last and First Men, Pinocchio, There Is No Evil and The Woman Who Ran.

I have linked that article here.

Last word on Berlin, for now...look out for Johann Johannsson's Last and First Men.  The late Icelandic composer's first attempt at directing a feature film.  Johannsson was Oscar nominated for the scores for Sicario and The Theory of Everything.  Just got a feeling.


MORE ADDITIONS TO TFF HISTORY

I added the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Telluride Film Festivals to the Extended Telluride History Part Two: 1996-Present page. 

2011 notable films included: Albert Nobbs, The Artist, A Dangerous Method, Into the Abyss, A Separation, Shame and We Need to Talk About Kevin.

2012: Notable films included:The Act of Killing, Amour, Argo, The Central Park Five, Frances Ha, No, Rust and Bone and Stories We Tell.

2013 notable films included: 12 Years a Slave, All Is Lost, Blue Is the Warmest Color, Gloris. Gravity, Ida, Inside Llewyn Davis, Manuscripts Don't Burn, The Missing Picture, Nebraska, The Past, Prisoners and Under the Skin.


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