Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best Telluride predictor I know."
-Sasha Stone, Awards Daily
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia has posted his list of predicted films for Telluride:
A Compassionate Spy (Dir. Steve James) Aftersun (Dir. Charlotte Wells) All The Beauty And The Bloodshed (Dir. Laura Poitras) Armageddon Time (Dir. James Gray) Athena (Dir. Romain Gavras) Bardo (Dir. Alejandro González Iarritu) Bones and All (Dir. Luca Guadignino) Broker (Dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda) Close (Dir. Lukas Dhont) The Eight Mountains (Dir. Felix van Groeningen & Charlotte Vandermeersch Empire Of Light (Dir. Sam Mendes) Godland (Dir. Hlynur Palmason) Good Night Oppy (Dir. Ryan White) Holy Spider (Dir. Ali Abbasi) Living (Dir. Oliver Hermanus) My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock (Dir. Mark Cousins) One Fine Morning (Dir. Mia Hansen-Love) Salvatore: Shoemaker Of Dreams (Dir. Luca Guadagnino) See How They Run (Dir. Tom George) Sr. (Dir. Chris Smith) TÁR (Dir. Todd Field) The Wonder (Dir. Sebastián Lelio) Theatre Of Thought (Dir. Werner Herzog) Tori & Lokita (Dir. Luc Dardenne & Jean-Pierre Dardenne) Wildcat (Dir. Melissa Lesh & Trevor Frost) Women Talking (Dir. Sarah Polley)
Departures from my list: The Eight Mountains, Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams, See How They Run (which I think might be a 2nd film from Searchlight), Tori and Lokita (Which has been persistently in my "Other Possibilities" list), and Wildcat
One of MTFB's great friends was kind enough to pass on the flyer announcing the films that are screening in Elks Park prior to the fest beginning. Tonight TFF will be screening the documentary Navalny and tomorrow night will feature Peter Bogdanovich's classic The Last Picture Show.
In the past the films screened at Elks Park prior to the start of the fest have been good indicators of who would be getting a tribute through the course of the weekend. That doesn't necessarily seem to be the case this year.
Hot buzz for tributes this week for Cate Blanchett and Olivia Colman.
YESTERDAY
I have to tell you that I have backed off of yesterday's excitement re: what seemed like a big surprise for the fest. I got considerable pushback from folks with better access than I have. Consequently, my expectation has plummeted from about a 50/50 chance down to 10%.
I will say this, if the film I had in mind does somehow sneak into the lineup that the people that have denied it have been very forceful and dedicated.
Every year as we get down to the last few days before the Telluride Film Festival takes off we start to hear crazy rumors that rarely pan out. I can't tell you how many years that Brad Pitt has been sighted in Telluride and with the exception of his appearance there in 2013 as a part of the crew that was in town for 12 Years a Slave I don't believe he was actually in T-ride any other year.
So...
The last 24 hours or so I have been tracking down a story that would be a big play for Telluride should it be true. However, I'm still not 100% convinced that it is.. Stay tuned...
In a separate item...it appears very likely that Searchlight will have a second film playing in addition to Sam Mendes' Empire of Light.
This is my last stab at what's going to play at Telluride this week. Of course we'll all find out the actual lineup on Thursday morning at 11:00 EDT/8PDT. I'll wake up Thursday morning in Gunnison, Co. with about a 22 and 1/2 to 3 hour drive into Telluride. My plan is to post the lineup when it lands Thursday morning and then skeedaddle to T-ride fairly quickly after.
Here's a reminder of what I had listed as my Ten (Plus) Bets last Thursday:
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) Something from Mark Cousins*
20) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*, My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*, March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher
AND HERE ARE MY FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49
The last few years I average about 23 of 25 correct...
2021: 24 of 25 correct.
2020: No fest
2019: 24 of 25
2018: 25 of 25
2017: 24 of 25
2016: 20 of 20
So, out of the last five years of Bets... 117 of 120.
We'll see what the 2022 rate is.
And now the actual "Final Bets":
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) March to Rome and/or My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins
20) Aftersun/Wells
21) Living/Hermanus
22) Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy/Buirsky
23) The Pupils/Rohrwacher
24) Anastasia/McCarthy
25) Athena/Gavras
Others Possibilities:Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins
I'm still somewhat shaky on All the Beauty..., Aftersun, Living, Athena and the new adds of Anastasia and The Pupils. We'll see what happens there.
World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy, who has worked this beat tirelessly this season, has reported this list of 23 films as of last Friday. Jordan writes:
These are the 23 films that we know are Telluride-bound:
Tar (Field)
Bones and All (Guadagnino)
Bardo (Inarritu)
The Wonder (Leilo)
Empire of Light (Mendes)
Women Talking (Polley)
A Compassionate Spy (James)
My Name is Alfred Hitchcock (Cousins)
Theatre of Thought (Werner Herzog)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Godland (Hylnur Pálmason)
The US and the Holocaust (Ken Burns)
Sr. (Smith)
Good Night Oppy (White)
Holy Spider (Abbasi)
Armageddon Time (Gray)
One Fine Morning (Hansen-Løve)
Broker (Kore-eda)
Close (Dhont)
Living (Hermanus)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Poitras)
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Buirsky)
As you can see, our lists are almost exactly the same.
We'll know more in about 75 hours.
TRIBUTE GUESSES???
Bill Night/Living
Cate Blanchett/TAR
Olivia Colman/Empire of Light
Alejandro Inarritu/Bardo
Anne Hathaway/Armageddon Time
Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time
Jessica Chastain/Armageddon Time
Mark Rylance/Bones and All
Michael Stuhlbarg/Bones and All
If I get some solid intell on this before Thursday's announcement...I'll pass it on in a special post.
WHAT DOES ELLWOOD KNOW?
Last Friday Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist tweeted:
And my brain went..."What's that mean?"
Ellwood had a couple of responses that guessed that Steven Spielberg's The Fableman's had been grabbed by TFF #49. Ellwood said "No." to that. So it got me wondering what it COULD mean.
Back on Aug. 8th I posted "Star Gazing at TFF #49 which was a listing of possible "names" that might be attending based on what films I thought at that time would play TFF. I've added some further possibilities to that list:
Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.
Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.
Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.
One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.
TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, Nina Hoss
Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.
The Wonder: Florence Pugh (see story below), Toby Jones, Ciaran Hinds.
Living: Bill Nighy
Sr.: Robert Downey, Jr.
Desperate Souls, Dark City...: Jon Voight
Is that "Starry" enough for Ellwood's characterization? Maybe. Or is Ellwood hinting about an additional film or two that would pump up the list of guests?
PUGH? MAYBE NOT
Lots of buzz around Florence Pugh this week. The young actress who is starring in Venice selection Don't Worry Now as well as TFF #49 selection The Wonder is described as "doing limited press" for Venice. Explanations and conjectures center on her shooting schedule for Dune 2 as well as a controversies swirling around Don't Worry Now involving director Olivia Wilde, actors Shia LaBeouf and Harry Styles and Wilde's ex-husband, actor Jason Sudeikis.
I have assumed that there was a reasonably chance the the young and rising star might break free with her Dune 2 counterpart, Timothee Chalamet, star of Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All (which I expect to be at Telluride) and do a bit of time in the San Juans...but that looks relatively unlikely at the moment.
Pugh currently sits at #23 on IMDb's STARmeter which tracks the current popularity status of people in the biz. My current STARmeter status is: 1,180,574. Totally serious about that number.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
For the tenth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Toronto has completed announcing its lineup and we're just a week-ish away from the 49th edition of the Telluride Film Festival. Some adds and slight changes to this next-to-last set of Bets. I'll have a FINAL TEN (PLUS) BETS in Monday's MTFB post.
By way of re-capping, here's last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith.
And here's this weeks updated Bets:
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) Something from Mark Cousins*
20) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*, My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*, March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher
EMPIRE OF LIGHT POSTER AND TEASER
One of the films that I'm most sure will ply next week at Telluride is Sam Mendes' Empire of Light. At the moment it's among my top 2-3 films to make sure to catch next week. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Olivia Colman Tribute that includes the film...though maybe Toby Jones gets a tribute as he appears to be included in two films that will be screen next. In addition to Empire of Light Jones also appears in The Wonder.
At any rate, Searchlight has dropped a cool teaser for the film:
ATHENA GETS A TRAILER
Romain Gavras' Athena is a film that I have been including most of the season as an "Other Possibility" mostly due to its distributor: Netflix and as of late, its scheduled first screening at the Venice Film Fest-9:00 am Sept 2. That's also the same day that TAR and Bones and All are also screening initially. So...it's possible.
Netflix dropped a full trailer on Wednesday ahead of its Venice premiere (and possible Telluride SHOW).
Here's that trailer from YouTube:
IMDb's description of the film:
"Hours after the tragic death of their youngest brother in unexplained circumstances, three siblings have their lives thrown into chaos."
Irrespective if it does play Telluride is its release date for Netflix on Sept. 23rd.
RETURN OF AFTERSUN
You may have noticed that I have returned Charlotte Wells' Aftersun to the actual list of 20 films I'm expecting at TFF #49. That's because multiple sources reached out to me yesterday to let me know that the firm handling the PR for the film had sent an email to various press members that the film is screening at Toronto as a Canadian Premiere. That is at odds with what the film's premiere designation is at the TIFF website as of this morning. It's till listed as a North American Premiere there.
Aftersun is posted for the New York fest with no premiere designation which would normally signal a Telluride appearance...so with that apparent contradiction, I had moved it from the actual "Bets" to the list of "Other Possibilities"
I've thought Aftersun was a likely TFF #49 candidate since it debuted at Cannes last May. Its critical reception and its distribution by A24 made me think it was a very likely choice. Now, it seems, the record is probably set straight and so back to the "Bets" for today.
CAMDEN FILM FEST ANNOUNCEMENT SEEMS TO CONFIRM "SR." FOR TFF #49
Variety reporting selections made for the 18th annual Camden International Film Festival on Monday appear to have confirmed the Telluride world premiere of Chris smith's documentary about Indie film director Robert Downey, Sr. The film is entitled "Sr."
Here's the last paragraph of the Aug. 22nd post:
"This year’s CIFF highlights include the U.S. premiere of Tamana Ayazi and Marcel Mettelsiefen’s Netflix release “In Her Hands,” which follows one of Afghanistan’s first female mayors during the months leading up to the Taliban takeover the country in 2021; Chris Smith’s “Sr.,” centered on the life and career of Robert Downey Sr. and his relationship to his son, Robert Downey Jr.; and Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” about Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall. Each of the three featured documentaries will have made its world premiere before CIFF, at festivals in Toronto, Telluride and Venice, respectively."
BTW, we also think T-ride is going to screen Steve James' A Compassionate Spy at TFF #49.
MARCH ON ROME POSTER
Director Mark Cousins tweeted a photo of the poster for one of his new films: March on Rome which Cousins suggested is: "The new poster for my film about fascism." Not to put too fine a point on it.
Cousins has at least 2-3 projects that could make an appearance at TFF including this one as well as The Story of Film: A New Generation and an Alfred Hitchcock film he has been working on.
Cousins has also recently tweeted about making sure he could get his passport updated for travel to America as well as this tweet from yesterday:
"From Monday for 2 weeks I will be on a film journey in several countries, doing lots of things.
I'll tweet as I go, but mute me if it's a bit much."
This lends continued creedence to my belief that the T-ride regular and TFF member of its Esteemed Council of Advisors will be there next week with something. Maybe two somethings.
I posted a week ago news that Alexander Payne's The Holdovers had test-screened and wondered if that film from a T-ride regular, past Guest Director and current member of TFF's Board of Governors might be a late-breaking addition to the Telluride lineup.
It won't be.
One of my frequent sources for Telluride tidbits, Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel. reported last Thursday that the film is not ready. From Ruimy's August 18th post:
"it turns out that, according to Payne himself, “The Holdovers” cut shown in California was a “work-in-progress.” The film just isn’t finished."
Ruimy also suggests that a possible plan is a Cannes premiere in May 2023. Should that occur then a berth at TFF #50 becomes a real possibility.
(All the Beauty and the Bloodshed photo via the Venice Film Festival)
Laura Poitras buzzy documentary about photographer Nan Goldin, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, has been a part of my consideration for a few weeks now. It's a film that has had some ambiguity about its premiere status. Venice is its World Premiere (and it is scheduled to debut early enough there to make the trip to The SHOW-Sept. 2nd). Toronto has it listed as a North American premiere and New York has it as its Centerpiece with no premiere designation.
It's the TIFF/NYFF designations that have given me pause. The TIFF NAP designation signals no TFF #49 whereas the lack of designation at NYFF suggests yes at TFF #49.
However, this week's Indiewire ScreenTalk podcast seems to settle the issue as Eric Kohn flat says "and then we have the Laura Poitras film which we already know is at Telluride..." David Ehrlich, sitting on for Kohn's normal ScreenTalk partner, Anne Thompson, tells us that makes All the Beauty and the Bloodshed the ONLY film to play the BIG 4 Fall Fests: TFF, Venice, TIFF and NYFF.
TAR is one of the films expected now to play Venice and then TFF #49. I am wondering if its presentation will be part of a Cate Blanchett Tribute.
IMDb describes TAR as:
"Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra."
I think the original trailer sounds like the film could be a riff on the Faustus story.
SNEAKINESS AT TELLURIDE
Idle wondering on my part as we squeeze down to 11 days before TFF #49 ensues. What I mean by that is: what sneakiness is a foot regarding the schedule?
Last year both Kenneth Branagh's Belfast and Mia Hanse-Love's Bergman Island had premiere status announcements from Toronto that seemed to preclude a play at TFF #48 (World Premiere for Belfast and North American for Bergman Island). Additionally, TFF listed four films as "Sneak Previews" : The French Dispatch, The Card Counter, Becoming Led Zeppelin and Dear Mr. Brody.
So as we approach TFF #49, I am wondering what sneaky tricks the fest has up its sleeve for this year? After that sleight-of-hand last year, I figure that they'll try to pull off something approaching that again this year.
But what?
Last year, in my "Final Bets" I had The Card Counter listed at #2 and The French Dispatach as the #24 listed film and Bergman Island as an "Other Possibility". Belfast, Becoming Led Zeppelin and Dear Mr. Brody were nowhere to be found on that Final list.
Last year it was Focus features that provided the big surprise in Belfast. I currently have Focus expected to be in town with TAR and Armageddon Time. Could they also bring Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies (maybe) or Wes Anderson's Asteroid City (doubtful)?
What about recent frequent distributors such as Netflix, Searchlight, NEON or A24? Coiuld they provide a surprise?
Netflix will certainly be in T-ride with Alejandro Inarritu's Bardo, Sebastian Lelio's The Wonder and perhaps Romain Gavras' Athena. It has a couple of candidates that look at this point to be totally off the TFF table: Noah Baumbach's White Noise and Andrew Dominik's Blonde and I still think they're off the table.
But how about Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front (listed at TIFF as a World Premiere)?
Tobias Lindstrom's The Good Nurse (listed by TIFF as a World Premiere).
Possible, but unlikely. Netflix is probably solid at T-ride with Bardo, The Wonder and maybe Athena.
Searchlight looks to be landing at Telluride with Sam Mendes' Empire of Light. Could their comedy/mystery See How They Run show up? It's scheduled for release on Sept. 30th and isn't set for any of the big four fall festivals and has a starry cast (Sam Rockwell, Saorise Ronan, Adrien Brody). Could they pop Chevalier which is labeled as a World Premiere for TIFF?
NEON? Looks like NEON will light up Telluride with Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker and Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. Anything else from them for possible sneakiness? The only possibility I can think of is Brett Morgen's David Bowie doc Moonage Daydream which TIFF lists as a North American Premiere.
And A24 who has a lineup this fall which seems endless but at the moment doesn't have any film locked at Telluride. I have been saying Aftersun and Close were both likely TFF #49 picks and yet... Aftersun was just announced as a North American Premiere for Toronto last week and Close hasn't been announced for either TIFF or NYFF.
White Noise? WP at Venice, NA preem at NYFF
The Whale? NA Preem at TIFF
The Inspection? WP at TIFF
Stars at Noon? NA preem at NYFF
All that after A24 had C'mon C'mon and Red Rocket at Telluride last year and Uncut Gems, Waves and First Cow at TFF #47.
Maybe Close is all that goes to T-ride from A24...and maybe not even it.
YOUR PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE INVITATION
For the 10th non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com or michael_speech@hotmail.com
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
PS-LATE BREAKING: THE BETS LOOK GOOD
Late yesterday afternoon, our frequent go-to for Telluride news, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a pre-festival analysis of Oscar players and in it wrote:
"First things first, I was told by my Telluride contact to not expect the unexpected. Almost everything that’s been predicted to go is actually what will be going. There won’t be any “Babylon” surprise or David O. Russell’s “Amsterdam.”
The Bad News: No Babylon or Amsterdam or maybe much of anything else that hasn't been on one list or another.
The Good News: We appear to be fairly accurate
Here's Ruimy's most current Telluride list as last Friday:
Tar (Field)
Bones and All (Guadagnino)
Bardo (Inarritu)
The Wonder (Leilo)
Empire of Light (Mendes)
Women Talking (Polley)
A Compassionate Spy (James)
My Name is Alfred Hitchcock (Mark Cousins)
Theatre of Thought (Werner Herzog)
Amanda (Carolina Cavalli)
Godland (Hylnur Pálmason)
The US and the Holocaust (Ken Burns)
Sr. (Smith)
Good Night Oppy (White)
Holy Spider (Abbasi)
Armageddon Time (Gray)
One Fine Morning (Hansen-Løve)
Broker (Kore-eda)
Close (Dhont)
Living (Hermanus)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Laura Poitras)
Looks like he includes Mark Cousins' My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock and Carolina Cavalli's Amanda that I don't currently have on the latest Ten Bets and Possibilities. The Cousins film is listed as in pre-production on IMDb BUT wouldn't surprise me as Cousins often works quickly and under the radar.
As far as Amanda is concerned, it is a film I know nothing about. IMDb describes it as follows:
"Amanda, 24, lives mostly isolated and has never had any friends, even if it's the thing she wants the most. Amanda chooses her new mission as to convince her childhood friend to believe that they are still best friends."
The film is set to be a part of Venice's Orizzonti Extra program and is slated to bedut there on Sept. 5th which seems to me to make it an unlikely TFF #49 player.
A wild couple of days with more announced films from New York and Toronto since Monday's post. As a result, some shakeup in the Ten Bets for this week. Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Aftersun/Wells
15) Close/Dhont
Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras.
And now for this week:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Godland/Palmason, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith, The Holdovers/Payne
"Cooper’s latest, titled “Pale Blue Eye,” will finally not be going to Telluride...Supposedly, there was a pretty bad test-screening earlier in the year.
I'm disappointed as Plae Blue Eye would have been a definite watch on my TFF dance card.
AFTERSUN...MAYBE NOT
You'll notice that I have moved Charlotte Wells Aftersun from a spot in the 15 Bets to "Other Possibilities" this week. That owes to the fact that the film was added this week by the Toronto Fest as a North American Premiere. I have had a notion that it would be a Telluride film from its reception at Cannes back in May. That, I thought, was seemingly confirmed when the New York Fest announced it as part of their Main Slate with no premiere designation.
Now, with the TIFF selection and designation, you have one of those classic moments we've all come to know when the status of a film is contradictory between two fests. What to do?
At this late date I have a hard time believing that Toronto would get this wrong. Accordingly I moved Aftersun off the Bets list for this week and even really thought that I wouldn't even include it as an "Other Possibility".
HERZOG YES...JUST NOT WHAT WE THOUGHT
Photo via TIFF
Werner Herzog's Theatre of Thought was announced on Wednesday as an International Premiere for Toronto. The film is so fresh that you can't find it listed on Herzog's IMDb Pro page. The International Premiere status means that it will have played within its country of origin. So one can surmise that the film will likely play Telluride (rather than Fantastic Fest which doesn't start until TIFF is over).
Here is the TIFF description for the film:
"Werner Herzog sets his sights on yet another mysterious landscape — the human brain — for clues as to why a hunk of tissue can produce profound thoughts and feelings while considering the philosophical, ethical, and social implications of fast-advancing neural technology."
As a side note, this seeming confirmation that this Herzog doc is playing TFF #49 don't discount the possibility that The Fire Within might also screen at Telluride.
LIVING AND VENICE-A CLUE?
So many chunks of information to sift through this week including the release of the schedule for the Venice Film Fest. That is often a good indicator of films that will play at Venice first before making the trans-Atlantic flight to Telluride.
To make the leap films generally play the first three to four days of the Venice affair. This year Venice opens on Aug. 31st. So what films that we believe are playing Telluride are loaded in that time frame?
8/31- TAR and Living
9/1- Bardo, A Compassionate Spy
9/2 Bones and All, Athena, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
9/3 Argentina 1985
So, we've been pretty sure about Bardo, TAR and Bones and All for awhile. I'm also pretty confident about A Compassionate Spy.
I think most of you have seen my theory about Living making a stop at Telluride and this early screening time for it fits that theory really well.
As for Athena...timing works well enough. Argentina 1985 is problematic with the screening on Day 4 and I'm still leery that All the Beauty is, in fact as advertised by some portions of the Toronto PR, a North American Premiere there and won't be at TFF #49.
Toronto's announcement yesterday included Hylnur Palmason's Godland as a Canadian Premiere. The film played Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard program where it was generally well regarded by critics.
Godland has played a number of other international film fests including: Sydney, Transylvania and New Horizons. The Canadian Premiere designation means an almost certain play at TFF #49.
The IMDb description of the film:
"In the late 19th century, a young Danish priest travels to a remote part of Iceland to build a church and photograph its people. But the deeper he goes into the unforgiving landscape, the more he strays from his purpose, his mission and morality."
OTHER THOUGHTS:
Looks like Sarah McCarthy's short Anastasia could be Telluride bound as it is listed by Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.
NYFF announced a screening of Chris Smith's Sr. a documentary focused on the life of Robert Downey Sr. NYFF listed without any premiere designation which could mean a TFF #49 play.
Many of you know that I usually include Oscar winning director/writer Alexander Payne as a "Usual Suspects" that frequently attend the Telluride Film Festival. Payne guest directed the fest in 2009 and is listed as a member of TFF's Board of Governors. But I didn't include Payne this year though I knew he was working on a new film starring his Sideways lead actor Paul Giamatti. The Holdovers is described at IMDb as follows:
"Nobody likes teacher Paul Hunham (Giamatti) -- not his students, not his fellow faculty, not the headmaster, who all find his pomposity and rigidity exasperating. With no family and nowhere to go over Christmas holiday in 1970, Paul remains at school to supervise students unable to journey home. After a few days, only one student holdover remains -- a trouble-making 15-year-old named Angus, a good student whose bad behavior always threatens to get him expelled. Joining Paul and Angus is head cook Mary (Randolph)-an African American woman who caters to sons of privilege and whose own son was recently lost in Vietnam. These three very different shipwrecked people form an unlikely Christmas family sharing comic misadventures during two very snowy weeks in New England. The real journey is how they help one another understand that they are not beholden to their past-they can choose their own futures."
When I was asked if it could play at TFF #49 my response was if anyone could make that happen it would be Alexander Payne. Do I think it WILL happen? No. Do I think it COULD happen? Sure...it's Payne. There's a chance and I, for one, would welcome it.
SCREEN TALK, SHE SAID AND NYFF
Maria Schrader's She Said has been something of a badminton birdie for me this summer-back and forth, back and forth.
The latest salvo was its lack of inclusion on NYFF's Main Slate announcement last week. I had assumed that the film's supposed World Premiere at NYFF would mean its inclusion as a Main Slate selection. So when it was not I thought...hey...maybe it's still in play for TFF.
But a comment posted to my blog by "Unknown" on Thursday suggests:
"NYFF’s press release re: its Main Slate stated “Currents, Revivals, Spotlight, and Talks sections will be announced in the coming weeks.” My best guess is that She Said will be announced w/i the next two weeks as a NYFF Spotlight film accompanied by a Talk with the main cast and the journalists they portray."
"I announced awhile ago that She Said was going to have a big event at the New York Film Festival and I believe that that is going to turn out to be true." Which makes me think Anne knows even more than what she's saying. Does it mean it's a World Premiere at New York and nit a TFF selection? Probably.
I also kind of think that Anne might be leading the Q+A after the film at NYFF-pure speculation on my part.
BUT, then Anne goes on to say that Sarah Polley's Women Talking will be announced sometime soon as an addition to NYFF and I feel very confident that its initial bow will be at Telluride.
Sooo...She Said is a "probably not" again for TFF #49. But....
BFI-LONDON CHOOSES EMPIRE OF LIGHT
The BFI-London Film Fest announced on Thursday that Sam Mendes Empire of Light will be this year's American Express Gala Screening at the British Film Institute/London Film Festival as a European Premiere.
The New York Film Festival's full Main Slate announcement on Tuesday allowed us to interpret information about possible TFF #49 selections but mostly at the margins. It also posed a couple of mysteries.
That said, here's a review of last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Good Night Oppy/White
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Field
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Armageddon Time/Gray
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Close/Dhont
15) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre
And here is the latest Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Aftersun/Wells
15) Close/Dhont
Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras
See the next section for New York analysis and its effect or lack thereof.
NEW YORK ANNOUNCES MAIN SLATE
In the run-up to yesterday's announcement NYFF had already announced White Noise, Armageddon Time, Till and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed as various special presentations. From those announcements I had gleaned that White Noise, Till and The Inspection were off the list for a Telluride screening, Cagey wording for the Armageddon Time announcement and lack of a premiere designation for All the Beauty made me think that those films could still be TFF possibilities.
With yesterday's announcement, here's what I think we can say:
Lack of any premiere status makes me believe that Armageddon Time, TAR, One Fine Morning and Aftersun are headed to TFF #49.
Premiere status for Master Gardener (North American premiere) and Showing Up (North American premiere) tell us that both films will NOT be at Telluride. Other films that I had as borderline Telluride possibilities that will not make the trip to the San Juans: EO, No Bears, R.M.N., Return to Seoul and Stars at Noon.
There were also films with no premiere status that likely will NOT be T-ride players because they played at Sundance: All That Breathes and Descendant.
Mysteries:
1) Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was listed in some NYFF's release materials without a premiere designation and in others as a U.S. premiere. Confusing? Of course. My feeling is that the documentary probably IS a U.S. premiere at NYFF and not bound for T-ride. We'll see.
2) Joanna Hogg's The Eternal Daughter has no premiere status which lead me to think for awhile on Tuesday that it could be at T-ride. Then a sharp-eyed MTFB reader reminded me that the film has a North American premiere status for Toronto. Now, it's my belief that Eternal Daughter will probably play Fantastic Fest and that would account for its lack of premiere status in the NYFF announcement.
3) Park Chan-wook's Decision to Leave has no NYFF premiere status either. Perhaps it is also headed to Fantastic Fest? I tend to believe the Toronto North American premiere status and thus no Telluride.
4) Ruben Ostlund's Cannes Palme d'Or winner Triangle of Sadness also has no NYFF premiere status but like Decision to Leave is listed by Toronto as a North American premiere. Like Decision to Leave, I suspect that TIFF's designation is correct and so Triangle of Sadness isn't headed to T-ride.
5) She Said was not announced as a part of NYFF's "Main Slate". Back on August 1st I reported that She Said was going to land at NYFF and as a World Premiere. That came from reporting from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.
Now, NYFF likely has some other films to add but it seems more than weird that She Said wasn't a part of the Main Slate of films announced Tuesday.
So, it seems to me that She Said may be more uncertain as a NYFF WP than previously thought.
On the other hand...can you say NYFF "secret screening"?
TEASER FOR BONES AND ALL
The peeps behind Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All dropped a teaser late yesterday afternoon. I'm expecting the film to SHOW at TFF #49 based upon an interview with Venice Film Fest head Alberto Barbera in which he claimed that the film would be at Telluride.
Here's the teaser from YouTube:
MARSHALL FLORES TRACKING THE FILMS AND FESTS
Awards Daily's Marshall Flores has been tracking all of the news regarding fall film fests. That chart is here:
Films that have landed at at least three of the fests (*Telluride, Cannes, Venice, Toronto and New York) are:
Armageddon Time*
Broker*
Decision to Leave
The Eternal Daughter
Holy Spider*
One Fine Morning*
Saint Omer
Films on the list that "technically" could still be in play for Telluride:
Blonde (though the word continues to be it'll be at Venice only)
Close
Don't Worry Darling (noop)
Golda (with Helen Mirren...late word from Ruimy last night is it"ll be out in 2023)
She Said (though rumored to WP at NYFF...no announcement yet...secret screening?)
Who might be joining us mere mortals in the San Juans in just a few weeks? Working from my current Ten (Plus) Bets list, here are some possibilities (listed by film) with past TFF Guests indicated with ***:
Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.
Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.
Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.
One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.
The Pale Blue Eye: Christian Bale***, Henry Melling, Gillian Anderson, Robert Duvall
TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong
Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.
The Wonder: Florence Pugh.
Hot prospects for Tributes include Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Olivia Colman and Frances McDormand.
THE STORY OF FILM: A NEW GENERATION TRAILER
TFF "Usual Suspect" Mark Cousins has a couple of projects that could make a splash at TFF #49. One is an updating of sorts of his The Story of Film. That film is The Story of Film: A New Generation and comes 10 years after the original. The new version has a new trailer which dropped last week. Here that is via YouTube:
Additionally, Cousins has a new documentary that will land at Venice and then could end up at Telluride. March on Rome which is described at IMDb as a film that:
"Depicts the ascent of fascism in Italy, and its fallout across 1930s Europe."
I wouldn't be stunned if both films were screened at the fest.
ARMAGEDDON AT NYFF
The New York Film festival has announced that James Gray's Armageddon Time will play as a "Main Slate selection". The announcement from NYFF is a little bit cagey with its language about the premiere status of the film:
"The premiere has been designated a special 60th anniversary screening event celebrating the history of the festival, featuring Gray and cast in attendance, along with NYFF filmmakers and supporters who have been integral to the festival’s success."
There's no actual mention of its premiere status despite using the word premiere" in the announcement. If the film isn't playing TFF/TIFF then New York could and likely would bill it as an North American premiere. Also, the "60th anniversary screening event" language makes me think that the film plays somewhere else before NYFF.
So I'm going to stand pat, for the moment anyway, that Armageddon Time still screens at TFF #49.
Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel continues to be a fount of info regarding festival season. In one of his later posts he seems to confirm that Steve James' A Compassionate Spy is headed for Telluride:
"Then there’s Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” set to premiere at Venice, Telluride, Toronto and Chicago."
I reported here a week ago that the documentary looked like it was headed to TFF #49 based on a Chicago Tribune story which included this:
"Though the filmmaker could not confirm the near-future for his latest project, many world premieres start at Venice and then go straight to a U.S. premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado a few days later."
And:
"James wrapped up principal photography in April, and his producers at Participant Media suggested submitting the film for Venice (Aug. 31-Sept. 10) and Telluride (Sept. 2-5)."
PS...another doc that Jordan mentions is Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" has also been announced as NYFF's Centerpiece and os absent any premiere designation for that fest as far as I can tell.
That leads me to think that we might consider it as a TFF #49 prospect. The film focuses on the work of photographer Nan Goldin and her fight against the Sackler family (Purdue Pharma).
Goldin's story was recently included as a part of the Hulu miniseries Dopesick.
Here's your latest edition of MTFB's Ten Bets for the TFF #49 lineup. There is a good deal of movement after last week's announcement of Galas and Special Presentations from the Toronto International Film Festival. Also making a difference was reporting from Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel and others.
As a recap, here are the Ten Bets and Other Possibilities from last week:
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) TAR/Fields
3) Bones and All/Guadagnino
4) Armageddon Time/Gray
5) Close/Dhont
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
8) The Son/Zeller
9) She Said/M. Schrader
10) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Women Talking/Polley, Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, White Noise/Baumbach, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik, The Whale/Aronofsky, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Living/Hermanus
And here are the new and significantly altered Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Good Night Oppy/White
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Armageddon Time/Gray
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Close/Dhont
15) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre
The biggest blows to last week's Ten Bets came with the likelihood that She Said will World Premiere at the New York Film Festival and that The Son will will World Premiere at Toronto.
We expect TIFF to announce its Midnight Madness program tomorrow which will probably not have any effect regarding what we can deduce about TFF #49.
NO GDT AT TFF
Admittedly I've thought all summer that the chances pf Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio [laying TFF #49 were slim but that chances seem to have been laid to rest. Jordan Ruimy at World of reel reports that the film will not be finished until sometime in October at the earliest.
The New York Film Festival announced on Tuesday that Noah Baumbach's White Noise will open their fest on Sept. 30th and NYFF has labeled the film a North American premiere. Assuming that characterization is accurate and Telluride maintains its unspoken policy of features being a first time North American screening, that means White Noise is off the speculation list for TFF #49.
I had been hearing some buzz that this could be true but the scheduling of White Noise as the opener for Venice kept me thinking that there was a great chance that the film would play in Italy and then slide across the Atlantic to land in the San Juans. Looks like that's not happening.
BUT PROBABLY A PALE BLUE EYE
I've had Scott Cooper's The Pale Blue Eye on the TFF #49 watch list for a long time and now there's scuttlebutt that the Christian Bale led film, is in fact, likely screening for the first time in Telluride. World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy snuck the increased chance that this will be true into a post called "What's Left-Part Deux".
This is what Ruimy writes:
"I’m getting more Telluride intel, this one concerning Scott Cooper’s “Pale Blue Eye” which will be having its world premiere over there."
Here's the IMDb description of the film:
"At West Point Academy in 1830, the calm of an October evening is shattered by the discovery of a young cadet's body swinging from a rope just off the parade grounds. An apparent suicide is not unheard of in a harsh regimen like West Point's, but the next morning, an even greater horror comes to light. Someone has stolen into the room where the body lay and removed the heart."
The film "Follows a veteran detective who investigates the murders, helped by a detail-oriented young cadet who will later become a world famous author, Edgar Allan Poe."
Previous Cooper collaborator Christian Bale (Hostiles, Out of the Furnace) as the detective and Henry Melling (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) as Poe join to tell this tale.
For me, it's a "most anticipated". Feeling really good that it's a TFF #49 selection.
Living starring Bill Nighy made a splash at Sundance earlier this year with a number of mentions of Nighy as a possible Oscar contender for Best Actor. Clayton Davis at Variety currently has Nighy at the #3 spot for a nomination.
The case against a Telluride play is, of course, the Sundance premiere back in January. Also, Venice head Alberto Barbera is on record saying that there will less of an overlap between his fest and Telluride and Living IS a Venice selection. But...
The case for a TFF #49 play includes the fact that it is under the wing of Sony Pictures Classics (a very tight Telluride connection). It's inclusion in the Venice out-of-competition lineup, despite having already bowed at Sundance-very unusual for Venice to schedule a non-World Premiere.
And, of late, Telluride has scheduled a couple of Sundance films that were tied to tributes. In 2016 T-ride invited Manchester-by-the-Sea, a film distributed by Amazon/Roadside Attractions -decent Telluride presence for each- and featured Casey Affleck as a tribute recipient. In 2018 TFF did the same with Adam Driver featuring both Marriage Story (from Netflix-a very good T-ride relationship) and The Report(from Amazon), which had premiered at Sundance.
So, could Bill Nighy be up for a Tribute and a screening of Living? Nighy also has a film called A Beautiful Game from Netflix that has yet to be screened anywhere and is listed by IMDb as having been in post-production since January.
So it's not outside the realm of possibility.
TEASER FOR ARGENTINA, 1985
Argentina 1985 is a Venice Golden Lion competition choice and seems like a sleeper for a spot at Telluride. That it was partially produced by Amazon Studios suggests the possibility that it could make the lineup when it is unveiled on Sept. 1st.
IMDb's description intrigues:
"A team of lawyers take on the heads of Argentina's bloody military dictatorship during the 1980s in a battle against odds and a race against time."
The first teaser for the film was released last week and here it is via YouTube:
