MTFB Oscar Update: First Oscar Winner Predictions / Visitations : Blanchett and More

FIRST OSCAR WINNER PREDICITONS

We're headed for March 12th and the 95th Academy Awards and now that nominations are known (with the possible exception of Andrea Riseborough) here's your first look at predicted winners.  I'll start today with six  major categories and then add six more for each of the next three posts.  Each set will then be updated every two weeks until the final set of predictions on Oscar Sunday.

As always, films from TFF are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) The Fabelmans

3) The Banshees of Inisherin

4)  Top Gun: Maverick

5) TAR

6) Elvis

7) All Quiet on the Western Front

8) Triangle of Sadness

9) Avatar: The Way of Water

10) Women Talking

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans

2) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Todd Field/TAR

5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans

4) Ana de Armas/Blonde

5) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale

2) Austin Butler/Elvis

3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Bill Nighy/Living

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once

4) Hong Chau/The Whale

5) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans

5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway

On Thursday I'll add predictions for Screenplays, Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.

VISITATIONS

CLOSE

Lukas Dhont at The Playlist.

TAR

Cate Blanchett on Focus Features YouTube channel.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Post Oscar Nomination Thoughts / Writer's Guild and TFF / U.S. Trailer for Godland / Visitations: Foy, Buckley and More

POST OSCAR NOMINATION THOUGHTS

So after  last Tuesday we have moved to the final phase of the 95th Oscar season in which Academy voters will winnow nominees down to winners in the 23 categories.  Final voting runs from March 2nd and ends March 7th with the ceremony set for March 12th.

Some random thoughts about what we know and what might be coming.

Everything Everywhere All at Once was always going to have a big morning last Tuesday but even the EEAAO crew had to be a little surprised that the film picked up 11 nominations and was the only film earning double digit nominations.

All Quiet on the Western Front; I had it getting nine nominations and was pretty queasy that I had gone overboard assessing its chances.  I really did think that my predilection for picking it would wreck my overall level accuracy.  In so many of its categories I had it getting in at the fifth spot.  Shaky at best.  But all turned out fairly well.  AQOTHWF did get nine nominations.  My predictions very nearly matched nomination for nomination save for picking Edward Berger getting in for Best Direction.  That didn't happen but the film picked up a nomination for Original Score which put it at nine total nominations.

TFF:  TAR overperformed a bit with its six nominations.  I had it predicted for four (Picture, Direction, Actress and Original screenplay) all of which it got in addition to Cinematography and Editing.

I had hoped Women Talking would get a least Supporting Acting nomination and had predicted a Best Original Score nomination but those did not materialize.  I was gratified that it pulled in that Best Picture nomination.  Many thought that it would not and my prediction was shaky.

I was also very pleased to see Bill Nighy get his first ever Oscar nomination.

Ultimately I had TFF films earning 16 nominations and they ended up with 17.

I was [leased that I went 93 for 120 for a success rate of 77.5% which, I gather, was a respectable number for Oscarologists.  Over at Gold Derby I would have finished behind just two experts: Indiewire's Anne Thompson who was tops with 95/120 and Gold Derby's Joyce Eng who had 94/120.

So yeah, it's true.  I outperformed a bunch of the folks who get paid to do this stuff.  Here's the link to all of the experts scores from Gold Derby.

Now it's on to March 12th.  Several actual races to make this a fun end to the awards season.  The Best Picture front runner right now seems to be Everything Everywhere but it's certainly not a lock.  Best Actor seems like a tight race between Fraser, Butler and Farrell.  Best Actress looks like  a showdown between Blanchett and Yeoh.  Supporting Actress seems to be leaning toward Angela Bassett but I wouldn't count out Condon or Curtis.  Supporting Actor looks like a slam dunk for Ke Huy Quan.  Best Direction appears to be a battle between The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinart) and Steven Spielberg.  

I'll start predicting for the winners in next Monday's post.

WRITER'S GUILD AND TFF

The Writer's Guild of America announced its nominees for the best work in screenplays for 2022 yesterday.  TFF #49 films scored a nomination in each of the three categories.  Todd Field earned a nomination for Best Original Screenplay for TAR.  Sarah Polley was nominated for penning the Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and Ondi Timoner was nominated for the best screenplay for a documentary for the Last Flight Home.

As is often the case, a number of Oscar nominated screenplays likely missed out due being ineligible for the WGA honor such as The Banshees of Inisherin, Living and All Quiet on the Western Front.

The WGA will announce its winners on March 5th.

Here is the complete list of WGA nominees.

U.S TRAILER FOR GODLAND

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING

Sarah Polley on the WTF podcast.

Claire Foy and Jesse Buckley on ming5.com. 

EMPIRE OF LIGHT

Micheal Ward from Vanity Fair.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

SPECIAL POST: OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

TFF Films in Bold.

Best Picture

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

“Elvis”

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

“The Fabelmans”

“TÁR”

“Top Gun: Maverick”

“Triangle of Sadness”

“Women Talking”

Best Director

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”)

Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Actor

Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)

Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Bill Nighy (“Living”)

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)

Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best International Feature Film

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Edward Berger, Germany)

“Argentina, 1985” (Santiago Mitre, Argentina)

“Close” (Lukas Dhont, Belgium)

“EO” (Poland)

“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Best Cinematography

James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Darius Khondji (“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”)

Mandy Walker (“Elvis”)

Roger Deakins (“Empire of Light”)

Florian Hoffmeister (“Tár”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Rian Johnson (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)

Kazuo Ishiguro (“Living”)

Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)

Best Original Screenplay

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Animated Feature

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (ShadowMachine/Netflix)

“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)

“Turning Red” (Pixar/Disney)

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks/Universal)

“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)

Best Visual Effects

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney/Marvel)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

Best Editing

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“TÁR” (Focus Features)

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Best Production Design

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Fabelmans” (Universal)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Whale” (A24)

Best Costume Design

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)

Best Sound

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

Contenders

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Feature

“All That Breathes”

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

“Fire of Love”

“A House Made of Splinters”

“Navalny”

Best Documentary Short Subject

“The Elephant Whisperers”

“Haulout”

“How Do You Measure a Year?”

“The Martha Mitchell Effect”

“Stranger at the Gate”

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye”

“Ivalu”

“Le Pupille”

“Night Ride”

“The Red Suitcase”

Best Animated Short

“The Flying Sailor”

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

“Ice Merchants”

“My Year of Dicks”

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

Best Original Song

“Hold My Hand” — Lady Gaga (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

“Lift Me Up”— Rihanna (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

“Naatu Naatu”— Kaala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, and Rahul Sipligunj (“RRR”)

“Applause”— Diane Warren (“Tell It Like a Woman”)

“This Is a Life”— David Byrne, Ryan Lott, and Mitski (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Original Score

Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”)

John Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Volker Bertelmann (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Carter Burwell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Son Lux (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

TFF films earn 17 nominations.  16 from TFF #49 and one from TFF #48.

TAR leads the Telluride crew with six: Best Picture, Actress, Direction, Original Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography.

Women Calling and Living each got two nominations.  Women Calling for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay.  Living for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Aftersun: Best Actor

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Doc

Close: Best International Feature

Empire of Light: Cinematography

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film (TFF #48)

Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths: Cinematography

Le Pupille: Best Live Action Short

Everything everywhere All at Once had the most nominations with 11.  Followed by The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front with nine each.

I'm pleased that Nighy is Oscar nominated and that Women Talking made the field for Best Picture.

I go 93 out of 120 for a 77.5% rate.

My best categories were Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects where I was 5 of 5.  My categories were Cinematography and Doc Short where I went 2 of 5.

My  point of pride: Picking All Quiet on the Western Front to get nine nominations which it did.  Although I had Edward Berger getting a Best Director nomination which did not happen.  However All Quiet picked up a nom for Best Score that I did not predict.

More on Thursday!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Predictions from the Experts / What Say You?

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS 

Hello all.  Here are my final Oscar nomination predictions.  The announcement comes tomorrow morning and MTFB will have a Special Edition tomorrow to review the noms and set the table for the run to the Oscar ceremony on March 12th.

A couple of notes:  My success rate historically is 75%-80%.  In categories where I don't get all five (10 in Best Picture) correct, the 6th ranked contender is a nominee about 75% of the time. 

As always TFF films/performers are in Bold.

Here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once 

2) The Banshees of Inisherin

3) The Fabelmans 

4) Top Gun: Maverick

5) TAR

6) Elvis 

7) Avatar: The Way of Water

8) All Quiet on the Western Front

9) The Whale

10) Women Talking 

11) Triangle of Sadness  

12) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Other possibilities: Aftersun, Living, GDT's Pinocchio, The Woman King, RRR, Babylon

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans 

2) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once 

3) Todd Field/TAR

4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin 

5) Edward Berger/All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Joseph Kosinski/Top Gun: Maverick

7) Baz Luhrman/Elvis

Other possibilities: James Cameron/Avatar, Sarah Polley/Women Talking, Ruben Ortlund/Triangle of Sadness

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR 

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Danielle Deadwyler/Till

4) Ana de Armas/Blonde

5) Viola Davis/The Woman King (5)

6) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans

7) Margot Robbie/Babylon 

Other possibilities: Olivia Colman/Empire of Light, Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie, Emma Thompson/GoodLuck to You Leo Grande

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale 

2) Austin Butler/Elvis 

3) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin 

4) Bill Nighy/Living 

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun 

6) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (5)

7) Tom Hanks/A Man Called Otto

Other possibilities: Adam Sandler/Hustle, Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans, Hugh Jackman/The Son

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin 

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once 

4) Hong Chau/The Whale

5) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once 

6) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness 

7) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans

Other possibilities: Janelle Monae/Glass Onion,  Jesse Buckley/Women Talking, Carey Mulligan/She Said

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once 

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin 

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin 

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans 

5) Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse

6) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans

7) Brad Pitt/Babylon 

Other possibilities: Ben Whishaw/Women Talking, Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking 

2) Living 

3) All Quiet on the Western Front 

4) The Whale

5) Glass Onion

6) She Said

7) Top Gun: Maverick 

Other possibilities: White Noise, GDT's Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin 

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once 

3) TAR 

4)The Fabelmans

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Aftersun

7) Elvis

Other possibilities: Babylon, Nope, The Menu

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio 

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On 

3) Turning Red 

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 

5) Wendall and Wild 

6) Lightyear 

7) Strange World 

Other possibilities: Inu-Oh, Minons: The Rise of Gru

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 

2) All That Breathes 

3) Fire of Love 

4) Descendant 

5) Navalny 

6) The Territory 

7) Retrograde 

Other possibilities: Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, Bad Axe, Last Flight Home

BEST  INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front 

2) Close 

3) Decision to Leave 

4) Argentina 1985 

5 Eo 

6) Saint Omer 

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths 

Other possibilities:  Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, The Quiet Girl

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Top Gun: Maverick 

2) Avatar: The Way of Water

3) The Fabelmans 

4) Empire of Light 

5) All Quiet on the Western Front 

6) Babylon 

7) TAR 

Other possibilities: Elvis, The Batman, Bardo, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Top Gun: Maverick 

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once 

3) The Fabelmans 

4) Elvis 

5) Avatar: The Way of Water 

6) The Banshees of Inisherin

7) TAR 

Other possibilities: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Woman King

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis 

2) Avatar: The Way of Water 

3) Babylon 

4) The Fabelmans 

5) All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 

7) Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Other possibilities: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, GDT's Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Fabelmans 

2) Babylon 

3) Women Talking 

4) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio 

5) The Banshees of Inisherin 

6) The Woman King (6)

7) Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

Other possibilities: All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nope

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR 

2) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick 

4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman 

 

6) New Body Rhumba/White Noise 

7) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing 

Other possibilities: Good Afternoon/Spirited, Stand Up/Till, Til Your Home/A man Called Otto

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick 

2) Avatar: The Way of Water 

3) Elvis 

4) All Quiet on the Western Front 

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once

6) Babylon 

7) The Batman

Other possibilities: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, GDT's Pinocchio, Moonage Daydream

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis 

2) The Whale 

3) The Batman 

4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

5) All Quiet on the Western Front

6) Babylon

7) Blonde 

Other possibilities: Amsterdam, Emancipation, Crimes of the Future

COSTUME

1) Elvis 

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

3) Babylon 

4) Living 

5) The Woman King 

6) The Fabelmans 

7) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 

Other possibilities: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Don't Worry Darling, The Banshees of Inisherin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water 

2) Top Gun: Maverick 

3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

4) The Batman 

5) All Quiet on the Western Front 

6) Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 

7) Nope 

Other possibilities: Fantastic Beasts, Jurassic World Dominion, Thirteen Lives

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2) New Moon

3) An Ostrich told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

4) The Flying Sailor

5) Ice Merchants

6) Save Ralph

7) More Than I Want to Remember

Other possibilities: It's Nice in Here, Steakhouse, The Garbage Man

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Nuisance Bear

2) The Elephant Whisperers

3) 38 at the Garden

4) How Do You Measure a Year

5) The Flagmakers

6) The Martha Mitchell Effect

7) Haulot

Other possibilities: Anastasia, Angola Do You Hear Us, Stranger at the Gate, As Far as They Can Run

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) An Irish Goodbye

2) The Red Suitcase

3) Le Pupille

4) Almost Home

5) Warsha

6) Ivalu

7) All in Favor

Other possibilities: Nakam, The Treatment, Sideral, Lone Wolf

All told, I am predicting 16 nominations for nine Telluride films to be announced tomorrow morning:

TAR (4 nominations with 2 more possibilities) Noms: Best Picture, Direction/Field, Actress/Blanchett and Original Screenplay.  Possibles: Cinematography and Editing.

Women Talking (3 nominations with 3 more possibilities) Noms: Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Score.  Possibles: Direction/Polley, Supporting Actress/Buckley and Supporting Actor/Whishaw.

Living (3 nominations) Best Actor/Nighy, Adpated Screenplay and Costumes.

Aftersun (1 nomination and 2 more possibilities) Nom: Best Actor/Mescal.  Possibles: Best Picture and Original Screenplay

Empire of Light (1 nomination and 1 possibility) Nom: Best Cinematography.  Possible: Best Actress/Colman

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1 nomination and 1 possibility) Nom: Best Animated Feature.  Possible: Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1 nomination) Best Documentary

Close (1 nomination) Best International Film

Le Pupille (1 nomination) Best Live Action Short

Other "outside shots":

Retrograde, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song and Last Flight Home for Best Documentary

Bardo and Holy Spider for Best International Film.  Bardo also has a shot in Cinematography.

Anastasia and Angola Do You Hear Us: Voices from a Plantation Prison in Best Documentary Short

Sideral in Best Live Action Short.

From an overall perspective I am  predicting that Everything Everywhere All at Once and All Quiet on the Western Front will co-lead the field with nine nominations apiece.

The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans will each have eight nominations.

Elvis will have seven.

Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick will have six each.

The Whale and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will each have five.

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here I have linked to Oscar predictions from some of the best in the business.  See what they have to say.

Clayton Davis/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

Nate Jones/Vulture

WHAT SAY YOU?

Who/what do YOU think will be nominated tomorrow morning?  Who/what do YOU want to hear when the nominees are read?  Drop me a comment, email, or Tweet.

MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / BAFTA Nominations and TFF / Visitations: Nighy and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE

                                              

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Original Score, Original Song and Sound.   These were last predicted on Jan. 5th.  Past ranking is to the right in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

FINAL MTFB OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS WILL BE IN MONDAY'S POST FOR ALL 23 CATEGORIES!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (-)

6) Janelle Monae/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (5)

7) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (6)

Out: Jesse Buckley/Women Talking

Should be in the mix: Buckley, Foy, McCarthy and Ivey from Women Talking

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)

5) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (4)

6) Brad Pitt/Babylon (6)

7) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (7)

Should be in the mix: Whishaw /Women Talking, Strong/Armageddon Time

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) Babylon (4)

3) Women Talking (2)

4) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (3)

5) The Banshees of Inisherin (5)

6) The Woman King (6)

7) Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (2)

2) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (3)

4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (4)

5) New Body Rhumba/White Noise (7)

6) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

7) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing (6)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Avatar: The Way of Water (2)

3) Elvis (3) 

4) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

5) The Batman (6)

6) Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

7) Babylon (5)

BAFTA NOMINATIONS AND TFF

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) announced their nominees for film excellence this morning.  Seven TFF films earned a total of 19 nominations with Todd Field's TAR leading the wat for films from The SHOW with five nominations.  Here's the listing:

TAR (5): Best Film, Direction/Field, Actress/Blanchett, Original Screenplay and Sound.

Living (4): Best British Film, Actor/Nighy, Adapted Screenplay and Rising Star/Wood.

Aftersun (4): Best British Film, Debut/Wells, Actor/Mescal and Casting.

Empire of Light (3): Best British Film, Best Supporting Actor/Ward and Cinematography.

The Wonder (1): Best British Film

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Animated Film

Edward Bergers' All Quiet on the Western Front earned the most nominations of any film with 14.

Here's the complete rundown of BAFTA nominees.

VISITATIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy in Variety.

MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON: Dean Fleischer Camp and Kirsten Lepore in Vanity Fair.

HOLY SPIDER: Ali Abbasi and Ana Lily Amirpour in Variety.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Lead Acting and More / The Critics Choice and TFF / Visitations: Buckley, Foy, Inarritu and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING LEAD ACTING AND MORE

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress, Best Actor, Cinematography, Editing and Production Design.  These were last predicted on Jan. 2nd.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

3) Danielle Deadwyler/Till (4)

4) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Viola Davis/The Woman King (5)

6) Anna de Armas/Blonde (New)

7) Margot Robbie/Babylon (6)

Out: Olivia Colman/Empire of Light

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

2) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)

3) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun (6)

6) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (5)

7) Adam Sandler/Hustle (New)

Out: Hugh Jackman/The Son

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Avatar: The Way of Water (2)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) Empire of Light (6)

5) All Quiet on the Western Front (5)

6) Babylon (4)

7) TAR (7)

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) Elvis (5)

5) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

6) The Banshees of Inisherin (6)

7) TAR (7)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis (3)

2) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

3) Babylon (2)

4) The Fabelmans (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

6) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (7)

7) Everything Everywhere All at Once (6)

THE CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF

The Critics' Choice Awards were handed out last night and the film side was dominated by Everything Everywhere All at Once with five wins including Best Picture and Best Direction.   

Nine TFF films had been nominated with a combined 23 nominations.  At the end of the evening TFF films had landed with three wins.  TAR had two of those for Best Actress-Cate Blanchett and Best Score.  Sarah Polley won Best Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking.

The complete list of winners can be found here.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING- Jesse Buckley with Deadline.com. and Claire Foy with Wmagazine.com.

TAR- Nina Hoss with Variety.

BARDO- Alejandro G. Inarritu with Deadline.com.

AFTERSUN- Charlotte Wells with The Hollywood Reporter.

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Guilds, Globes and TFF / Another Bill Pence Remembrance / MTFB Oscar Update: Picture, Direction and More

GUILDS, GLOBES AND MORE

The films from TFF #49 (and #48) continue to have a tough time gaining traction during this awards season.  Since Monday's post we have witnessed Guild nominations from, among others, actors, directors, cinematographers and art directors.  The Producers Guild will announce its ten nominees later today and The Critics Choice Awards ceremony will occur Sunday and those two events are the last two big puzzle pieces/precursors prior to the Jan. 24th Oscar nomination announcement.  The WGA nominees won't influence voters as they will not announce their nominees until the day after Oscar nomination.  additionally, the WGA has ruled out so many probable nominees that the two lists are almost guaranteed to be wildly different.

Here's what was revealed this week from The Globes and Guilds regarding TFF films:

Golden Globes:  TFF films had a total of nine GG nominations going into Tuesday night's ceremony.  To recap, those were:

TAR (3): Best Picture-Drama, Actress (Blanchett), Screenplay

Women Talking (2): Best Screenplay and Score

Living (1): Best Actor/Drama (Nighy)

Empire of Light (1): Best Actress/Drama (Colman)

Close (1): Best Picture Not in the English Language

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (from TFF #48) (1): Best Animated Film

Of the nine nominations, TAR won twice for Cate Blanchett as Best Actress/Drama and for Todd Field's screenplay.  The complete list of GG winners is linked here.

Among the Guilds:

The Screen Actors Guild nominees from TFF films were: Best Actress Cate Blanchett/TAR, Best Actor: Bill Nighy/Living and Women Talking as Outstanding Cast.  Here's the link to all of the SAG nominees.

The Directors Guild nominated Todd Field/TAR.  Meanwhile, Charlotte Wells was nominated for Best First Time Director for Aftersun. The complete list of DGA Feature film nominees is linked here.  Field and Wells join Previously announced nominees for Documentary feature direction.  That list included two docs that played at TFF: Laura Poitras/All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Matthew Heineman for Retrograde.

The American Society of Cinematographers nominated Roger Deakins/Empire of Light and Darius Khondji/Bardo for best documentary feature.  All of the ASC nominees can be found here. 

The Art Directors Guild nominated both Bardo and TAR for Best Production Design for a Contemporary Feature and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Animated feature.

All ADG nominees can be found here.

ANOTHER BILL PENCE REMEMBRANCE

Howie Mosvhovitz, who has worked at the Telluride Film Festival since 1992 as a part of the Student Symposium staff, penned another very nice remembrance of TFF co-founder Bill Pence who died early last month. The piece was posted by the Colorado Sun on Tuesday.

Movshovitz writes in part:

"What was Bill like? He adored the movies. He was tremendously focused and disciplined. He expected the same from people who worked on the festival. He made sure to get the best film prints possible (years before digital); he expected good projection; he chose to work with people he found capable and interesting, and with Stella and Tom Luddy created a Telluride family of some of the most devoted lovers of cinema in the world — Chuck Jones, Werner Herzog, Bertrand Tavernier, Ken Burns, Louis Malle, the international programmer Pierre Rissient. Bill Pence never made himself a star — the festival and the films were the stars."

The complete article is linked here.

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Animated, Documentary and International features which were last posted on Dec. 29th.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (4)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

5) Avatar: The Way of Water (5)

6) Elvis (7)

7) TAR (6)

8) Women Talking (8)

9) All Quiet on the Western Front (11)

10) Babylon (9)

11) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)

12) Triangle of Sadness  (12)

Stealth possibilities: Aftersun, Living, GDT's Pinocchio, The Woman King, RRR

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) James Cameron/Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

5) Todd Field/TAR (5)

6) Baz Luhrman/Elvis (7)

7) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (6)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Turning Red (3)

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (4)

5) Wendall and Wild (5)

6) Lightyear (-)

7) Strange World (7)

Out: In-Oh

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1)

2) All That Breathes (3)

3) Fire of Love (2)

4) Descendant (5)

5) Navalny (4)

6) The Territory (6)

7) Retrograde (7)

BEST  INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Close (2)

3) Decision to Leave (3)

4) Argentina 1985 (5)

5 Eo (New)

6) Saint Omer (6)

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (7)

Out: Holy Spider

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BAFTA Longlists and TFF / MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / The National Society of Film Critics and TFF / Visitations: Bill Nighy and More

BAFTA LONGLISTS AND TFF

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their longlist of finalists for potential nominations for the films of 2022.  13 films from TFF were longlisted in at least one category with Charlotte Wells' Aftersun and Todd Field's TAR the leaders from TFF with eight mentions each.  All told TFF films landed 40 mentions.  Here's the rundown:

Aftersun (8): Best Film, Best British Film, Best Debut, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actor (Mescal), Casting and Editing.

TAR (8): Best Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress (Blanchett), Casting, Cinematography, Score and Sound.

Living: (6): Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Nighy), Supporting Actress (Wood) and Casting.

Women Talking (4): Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Whishaw) and Score.

Empire of Light (4): Best British Film, Supporting Actor (Ward), Score and Production Design.

The Wonder (3): Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Score.

Single mentions for the following:

Lady Chatterley's Lover: Best British Film.

Bardo: Best Film not in the English Language.

Close: Best Film not in the English Language.

Holy Spider: Best Film not in the English Language.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Documentary.

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song: Best Documentary.***

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film.***

(*** from TFF #48)

Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front led all films with 15 mentions.

Takeaways: I think that Aftersun and Living stealth possibilities for a Best Picture Oscar nomination.

Women Talking continues to underperform and looks less and less likely of a Best Picture nomination or any acting nominations (Whishaw's inclusion on the shortlist notwithstanding.).

The complete BAFTA longlists are linked here.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.  These were last predicted on Dec. 26th.  In addition, I have included my first attempts to predict nominees in Makeup/Hair, Costumes and Visual Effects.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) Living (3)

4) She Said (4)

5) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

6) The Whale (5)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (-)

Out: White Noise

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Aftersun (6)

7) Babylon (7)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) The Batman (3)

4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (4)

5) Babylon (5)

6) All Quiet on the Western Front (6)

7) Blonde (7)

COSTUME

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Living (6)

5) The Woman King (5)

6) The Fabelmans (4)

7) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (7)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (5)

6) All Quiet on the Western Front (6)

7) Nope (7)

THE NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS AND TFF

Five TFF films earned various degrees of notoriety from the National Society of Film Critics over the weekend.  Todd Field's TAR was the most decorated of all films as it was named Best Film as well as Cate Blanchett winning as Best Actress and Fields winning Best Screenplay.  Nina Hoss was first runner-up for Best Supporting Actress.

Charlotte Wells' Aftersun also did well as Wells was named Best Director.  The film was also the runner-up to TAR for Best Picture and Paul Mescal was first runner-up for Best Actor.

Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was named Best Documentary.

Bill Nighy was named second runner-up for Best Actor for Living and James Gray was second runner-up for Best Screenplay for Armageddon Time.

The complete NSFC winners are linked here.

VISITATIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy from The Desert Sun.

EMPIRE OF LIGHT: Roger Deakins from A. Frame.

AFTERSUN: Charlotte Wells from MUBI.

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