Well...Telluride and Toronto are over and it's time to start thinking about awards season. I've done the first analysis of the guessperts and as the season moves along, I'll add more prognosticators into the matrix. I'll update every 2-3 weeks or so, until we get closer and then update weekly.
The Telluride link to Oscar has been fairly prevalent the past 5 years, but this year that's expected to be less likely because of the smaller number of American films at Telluride. However, after the first run though, it seems that Telluride may still be pretty impactful. Last year Telluride films received 23 Oscar noms...the year before I think it was 17. Looking at this year's first combination chart shows 6 solid noms in the Big 8 categories with Telluride ties and another 4 possibles lurking...and that doesn't include the foreign film Oscar possibles and even an animation nom possibilty.
Of course, this will all mutate before the announcement of the nominees and probably drastically.
Here's what the first wave of predictions are pointing toward with Telluride connections in bold:
Best Pic...Australia, Milk, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon
Other possibles: Doubt, Defiance, The Changeling, The Soloist, The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire (riding a wave of popular and critical success out of Telluride and into Toronto)
Best Director: Gus Van Sant, Baz Luhrmann, David Fincher, Clint Eastwood and Ron Howard.
Other directors in play: Christopher Nolan, Sam Mendes, Jonathan Hillcoat, John Patrick Shanley, Joe Wright, and Ed Zwick
Best Actor: Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Leonardo DeCaprio, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke.
Others: Viggo Mortenson, Richard Jenkins, Benicio Del Toro, Robert Downey, Jr., and Hugh Jackman
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Sally Hawkins.
Others: Nicole Kidman, Melissa Leo, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Drew Barrymore.
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Josh Brolin, Michael Shannon, Russell Crowe.
Others: James Franco, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, John Malkovich, Jamie Foxx, Michael Sheen, and Robert Downey, Jr. (for the same roll in "The Soloist"...apparently the guessperts don't really know which category he should be in)
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Tajari Henson, Viola Davis, Kathy Bates, and Vera Farmiga.
Others: Marisa Tomei, Amy Adams, Kim Basinger, Debra Winger, Rosemaire DeWitt, and Charlize Theron.
Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon, The Road, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, and Doubt.
Others: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, Defiance, Body of Lies, The Reader.
Original Screenplay: Milk, Australia, Vicky Christina Barcelona, The Cahngeling, Rachel Getting Married.
Others: The Visitor, Wall-E, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Soloist and Gran Torino.
The Telluride link to Oscar has been fairly prevalent the past 5 years, but this year that's expected to be less likely because of the smaller number of American films at Telluride. However, after the first run though, it seems that Telluride may still be pretty impactful. Last year Telluride films received 23 Oscar noms...the year before I think it was 17. Looking at this year's first combination chart shows 6 solid noms in the Big 8 categories with Telluride ties and another 4 possibles lurking...and that doesn't include the foreign film Oscar possibles and even an animation nom possibilty.
Of course, this will all mutate before the announcement of the nominees and probably drastically.
Here's what the first wave of predictions are pointing toward with Telluride connections in bold:
Best Pic...Australia, Milk, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon
Other possibles: Doubt, Defiance, The Changeling, The Soloist, The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire (riding a wave of popular and critical success out of Telluride and into Toronto)
Best Director: Gus Van Sant, Baz Luhrmann, David Fincher, Clint Eastwood and Ron Howard.
Other directors in play: Christopher Nolan, Sam Mendes, Jonathan Hillcoat, John Patrick Shanley, Joe Wright, and Ed Zwick
Best Actor: Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Leonardo DeCaprio, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke.
Others: Viggo Mortenson, Richard Jenkins, Benicio Del Toro, Robert Downey, Jr., and Hugh Jackman
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Sally Hawkins.
Others: Nicole Kidman, Melissa Leo, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Drew Barrymore.
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Josh Brolin, Michael Shannon, Russell Crowe.
Others: James Franco, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, John Malkovich, Jamie Foxx, Michael Sheen, and Robert Downey, Jr. (for the same roll in "The Soloist"...apparently the guessperts don't really know which category he should be in)
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Tajari Henson, Viola Davis, Kathy Bates, and Vera Farmiga.
Others: Marisa Tomei, Amy Adams, Kim Basinger, Debra Winger, Rosemaire DeWitt, and Charlize Theron.
Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon, The Road, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, and Doubt.
Others: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, Defiance, Body of Lies, The Reader.
Original Screenplay: Milk, Australia, Vicky Christina Barcelona, The Cahngeling, Rachel Getting Married.
Others: The Visitor, Wall-E, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Soloist and Gran Torino.
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