Happy New Year from Telluride!

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #6

Avatar is making a move on the Clearinghouse's lists.





Here is the latest update of our compilation of a number of Oscar prediciton sights and lists...highlighting the connections to TFF #36 (CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture- 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 4) Nine (tie), 6) Avatar, 7) Up, 8) AN EDUCATION, 9) Inglourious Basterds, 10) A Serious Man.

In the Hunt: The Lovely Bones, The Messenger, A Single Man,THE LAST STATION, Star Trek.

Comment: Big Mo...Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger and Star Trek.

Losing Mo...An Education and The Lovely Bones (And I mean BIG TIME!).

Gone from the list: BRIGHT STAR, THE ROAD, and Julie and Julia.

My personal guess of the four big gainers is the The Messenger has legs and that both Avatar and Inglourious Basterds will lose some steam over the next few weeks...(Avatar because a number of reviews are saying the tech is great, but the movie itself...not so much and I think that Inglourious may have peaked...it did have a good week this week...but I think its violence may hold it back.)...I also still think that Last Station and now, The Messenger may have the best shot at moving onto the list of 10 nominees of those films that are not currently in the top 10...Other top 10 that may be at risk...An Education and Nine (the reviews for Nine are less than stellar). Can The Road sneak back into the conversation? It's Rotten Tomatoes average is 24 points better than Nine.

Also, saw Invictus this weekend...nice movie, decent perfromances from Freeman and Damon...but Oscar worthy? Nope. Will that matter to the Academy? Don't know.

Best Director: 1) JASON REITMAN/UITA, 2) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 3) Lee Daniels/Precious, 4) James Cameron/Avatar, 5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus

Sniffin' Around: Rob Marshall/Nine, Quentin Tarantino/Basterds, LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION, Coen Bros/Serious Man, and Peter Jackson/Bones.

Comment: Big Mo is with: Lee Daniels (weird since he got no Golden Globe love), James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino.

Losing ground: Rob Marshall and Peter Jackson

Goners: None

If Inglourious has legs, then Tarantino will move into the top 5...I think the only two sure bets at this point are my friend Jason Reitman and Kathryn Bigelow...The Lovely Bones collapse has almost swallowed Jackson...

Best Actor: 1) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 2) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) Colin Firth/Single Man, 4) Morgan Freeman/Invictus, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker

In Play: Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Michael Stuhlbarg/Serious Man, Matt Damon/The Informant, and Ben Foster/The Messenger.

Off the chart: Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine

Movers: Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster...Goin' South: Morgan Freeman

Comment: SAG noms seem to indicate that Day-Lewis and Nine (also Rob Marshall's decline in the director's race) are losing ground across the board. See above note about the reviews...may be having an impact already.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) Gaby Sidibe/Precious, 4) HELEN MIRREN/LAST STATION, 5) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side.

Seeking: Marion Cotillard/Nine, ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Saroise Ronan/ Lovely Bones, and Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Hot: Bullock and Cruz

Not: Cornish and Ronan

Gone: Michelle Monaghan/Trucker

Comment: The top 4 remain the same as our last post (3 weeks ago). Sandra Bullock has ascended like a rocket...

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Chrsitoph Waltz/Inglourious Basterds, 2) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 3)Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 5) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger

Also: Matt Damon/Invictus, Christian McKay/Orson Wellea and Me, Alec Baldwin/It's Complicated, Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, and PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION.

Hot: Harrelson and Baldwin

Not: Damon, Mackie and Saarsgard

Gone: Tucci (for J & J) and PAUL SCHNEIDER/BRIGHT STAR.

Thoughts: Harrelson came screaming onto the chart this past couple of weeks and Baldwin is a trendy pick too right now. Molina hasn't suffered any drop off among prognosticators despite the fact that he was snubbed by the Globes and the SAG announement...it's that SAG one that really seems to indicate a disconnect between the predictors and what seems to be the reality on the ground...which is no nom for Molina. Tucci also doesn't seem to be suffering from the drag of less than blazing critical embrace for The Lovely Bones...at least not yet. I suspect that if Molina and/or Tucci start losing traction that McKay and Baldwin are the most likely beneficiaries.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) MoNique/Precious, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) Julianne Moore, 4) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 5) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR.

And...Samantha Morton/The Messenger, Judi Dench/Nine, Melanie Laurent/Inglourious Basterds, Natalie Portman/Brothers, and Sigourney Weaver/Avatar.

Hot: Morton, Laurent, Portman and Weaver

Not: Cruz

Gone: Sarandon, Cotillard, Carey

Notes: Weirdness as Melanie Laurent, who has been getting the notice as a potential nominee was overlooked in favor of Diane Kruger...who hasn't made the top ten of our combined survey (she just got a bit of notice in the wake of her SAG nom in this week's updates).

Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2)Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Julie and Julia

Also: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, and The Fantastic Mr. Fox

Hot: Julie and Julia and Fantastic Mr. Fox

Not: No one really dropping badly

Gone: Where the Wild Things Are

Comment: I suspect that the top 3 are solid. Invictus and J&J ,maybe not so much. If Bones and Nine continue to lose steam, then Single Man and Last Station probably benefit.

Original Screenplay; 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) A Serious Man, 3) Up, 4) Inglourious Basterds, 5) (500 Days) of Summer

And: Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, It's Complicated, The Messenger, and District Nine.

Hot: Hurt Locker, The Messenger and Avatar

Cold:Up and District 9

Gone: The White Ribbon

Notes: I think your top five right now are likely to be the nominees when they're announced Feb. 2

Nom leaders: UITA-6, Precious-4, Hurt Locker, Invictus, An Education-4, Inglourious Basterds-3

Noms and possibles combined: Nine-7 (5 now in the "possible category"...it's dropping like Lovely Bones did last month), UITA-6 (all noms!...the most solid thing going right now and has been since Telluride!). An Education also at 6, Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus, Basterds, Lovely Bomes and The Messenger -5, and Avatar, Serious Man, A Single Man and Last Station-4.

Telluride nominations as of this post i the Big 8 categories: 12...Possibles: 7. Down from the last post.

TFF #36 will also have some noms added for tech and foreign films (A Prophet and The White Ribbon are locks.)

The Clearinghouse will be back after the first of the year. We return to Telluride for the first time during the winter next week as we head there to ring in 2010...may catch a movie at The Nugget...rumored to be playing the last week of 2009...Up in the Air...weird, huh? Happy New Year Everyone!

TFF #36 The SAG Nominations and The Oscar Clearinghouse

"Inglorious Basterds" continues to gain ground!

The Screen Actor's Guild Nominations are out...here they be...

16th ANNUAL SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS® NOMINATIONS
THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

JEFF BRIDGES / Bad Blake - "CRAZY HEART" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

GEORGE CLOONEY / Ryan Bingham - "UP IN THE AIR" (Paramount Pictures)

COLIN FIRTH / George Falconer - "A SINGLE MAN" (The Weinstein Company)

MORGAN FREEMAN / Nelson Mandela - "INVICTUS" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

JEREMY RENNER / Staff Sgt. William James - "THE HURT LOCKER" (Summit Entertainment)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

SANDRA BULLOCK / Leigh Anne Tuohy - "THE BLIND SIDE" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

HELEN MIRREN / Sofya - "THE LAST STATION" (Sony Pictures Classics)

CAREY MULLIGAN / Jenny - "AN EDUCATION" (Sony Pictures Classics)

GABOUREY SIDIBE / Precious - "PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE" (Lionsgate)

MERYL STREEP / Julia Child - "JULIE & JULIA" (Columbia Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

MATT DAMON / Francois Pienaar - "INVICTUS" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

WOODY HARRELSON / Captain Tony Stone - "THE MESSENGER" (Oscilloscope Laboratories)CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER / Tolstoy - "THE LAST STATION" (Sony Pictures Classics)STANLEY TUCCI / George Harvey - "THE LOVELY BONES" (Paramount Pictures)CHRISTOPH WALTZ / Col. Hans Landa - "INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS" (The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

PENÉLOPE CRUZ / Carla - "NINE" (The Weinstein Company)

VERA FARMIGA / Alex Goran - "UP IN THE AIR" (Paramount Pictures)

ANNA KENDRICK / Natalie Keener - "UP IN THE AIR" (Paramount Pictures)

DIANE KRUGER / Bridget Von Hammersmark - "INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS" (The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures)

MO'NIQUE / Mary - "PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE" (Lionsgate)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
AN EDUCATION (Sony Pictures Classics)
THE HURT LOCKER (Summit Entertainment)
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures)
NINE (The Weinstein Company)
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL "PUSH" BY SAPPHIRE (Lionsgate)

Commentary:

Best Actor: Jeremy Renner gets a boost after having been overlooked in favor of Tobey Maguire by The Golden Globes...BIG SURPRISE...NO DANIEL DAY-LEWIS! Also No Mortensen, No DeNiro. Pretty predictable here.

Best Actress: The Sandra Bullock train continues to gather steam...

Best Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson continues to make some noise in this category...the rest of the field as expected...again, No Alfred Molina For "An Education"

Best Supporting Actress: Diane Kruger for Inglorious Basterds! There's your stunner on the list. Julianne Moore and Samantha Morton getting the short straw here.

Ensemble: The other surprise...no nomination here for "Up in the Air," "Precious" or "Invictus"...and kind of a surprising ones for "An Education," "The Hurt Locker" and "Basterds"...

Clearinghouse updated tomorrow!

TFF ##36 The Golden Globes and The Oscar Clearinghouse

Yesterday was BIG for "The Hurt Locker"...Today was a good day for "Up in the Air", "Nine," "Inglorious Basterds," The Weinstein Company and Sony Pictures Classics. A bad day for "The Lovely Bones"and "An Education". And, of course, some surprises along the way...

Here is the Golden Globes press release from this morning's announcement:


1. BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. AVATAR
Lightstorm Entertainment; Twentieth Century Fox
b. THE HURT LOCKER
Voltage Pictures C/O 42West; Summit Entertainment
c. INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
The Weinstein Company; The Weinstein Company
d. PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL PUSH BY SAPPHIRE
A Lee Daniels Entertainment / Smokewood Entertainment Group Production;
Lionsgate
e. UP IN THE AIR
Paramount Pictures; Paramount Pictures

2. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. EMILY BLUNT THE YOUNG VICTORIA
b. SANDRA BULLOCK THE BLIND SIDE
c. HELEN MIRREN THE LAST STATION
d. CAREY MULLIGAN AN EDUCATION
e. GABOUREY SIDIBE PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL
PUSH BY SAPPHIRE

3. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. JEFF BRIDGES CRAZY HEART
b. GEORGE CLOONEY UP IN THE AIR
c. COLIN FIRTH A SINGLE MAN
d. MORGAN FREEMAN INVICTUS
e. TOBEY MAGUIRE BROTHERS

4. BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
Watermark Pictures; Fox Searchlight Pictures
b. THE HANGOVER
Warner Bros. Pictures; Warner Bros. Pictures
c. IT’S COMPLICATED
Relativity Media, Scott Rudin Productions; Universal Pictures
d. JULIE & JULIA
Columbia Pictures; Sony Pictures Releasing
e. NINE
The Weinstein Company; The Weinstein Company

5. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR
MUSICAL
a. SANDRA BULLOCK THE PROPOSAL
b. MARION COTILLARD NINE
c. JULIA ROBERTS DUPLICITY
d. MERYL STREEP IT’S COMPLICATED
e. MERYL STREEP JULIE & JULIA

6. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY
OR MUSICAL
a. MATT DAMON THE INFORMANT!
b. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS NINE
c. ROBERT DOWNEY JR. SHERLOCK HOLMES
d. JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
e. MICHAEL STUHLBARG A SERIOUS MAN

7. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
a. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS
Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Animation; Sony Pictures Releasing
b. CORALINE
Laika, Inc.; Focus Features
c. FANTASTIC MR. FOX
American Empirical Picture; Twentieth Century Fox
d. THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
Walt Disney Pictures/Walt Disney Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios
Motion Pictures
e. UP
Walt Disney Pictures/PIXAR Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion
Pictures

8. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
a. BAARIA (ITALY)
Medusa Film; Summit Entertainment
b. BROKEN EMBRACES (SPAIN)
El Deseo SA; Sony Pictures Classics
c. THE MAID (CHILE)
(LA NANA)
Forastero; Elephant Eye Films
d. A PROPHET (FRANCE)
Chic Films; Sony Pictures Classics
e. THE WHITE RIBBON (GERMANY)
(DAS WEISSE BAND – EINE DEUTSCHE KINDERGESCHICHTE)
Wega Films; Sony Pictures Classics

9. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A
MOTION PICTURE
a. PENÉLOPE CRUZ NINE
b. VERA FARMIGA UP IN THE AIR
c. ANNA KENDRICK UP IN THE AIR
d. MO’NIQUE PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL
PUSH BY SAPPHIRE
e. JULIANNE MOORE A SINGLE MAN

10. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A
MOTION PICTURE
a. MATT DAMON INVICTUS
b. WOODY HARRELSON THE MESSENGER
c. CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER THE LAST STATION
d. STANLEY TUCCI THE LOVELY BONES
e. CHRISTOPH WALTZ INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

11. BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
a. KATHRYN BIGELOW THE HURT LOCKER
b. JAMES CAMERON AVATAR
c. CLINT EASTWOOD INVICTUS
d. JASON REITMAN UP IN THE AIR
e. QUENTIN TARANTINO INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

12. BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
a. NEILL BLOMKAMP, DISTRICT 9
TERRI TATCHELL
b. MARK BOAL THE HURT LOCKER
c. NANCY MEYERS IT'S COMPLICATED
d. JASON REITMAN, UP IN THE AIR
SHELDON TURNER
e. QUENTIN TARANTINO INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

13. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
a. MICHAEL GIACCHINO UP
b. MARVIN HAMLISCH THE INFORMANT!
c. JAMES HORNER AVATAR
d. ABEL KORZENIOWSKI A SINGLE MAN
e. KAREN O,
CARTER BURWELL WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

14. BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
a. “CINEMA ITALIANO” — NINE
Music & Lyrics by: Maury Yeston
b. “I WANT TO COME HOME” — EVERYBODY'S FINE
Music & Lyrics by: Paul McCartney
c. “I WILL SEE YOU” — AVATAR
Music by: James Horner, Simon Franglen
Lyrics by: James Horner, Simon Franglen, Kuk Harrell
d. “THE WEARY KIND (THEME FROM CRAZY HEART)” — CRAZY
HEART
Music & Lyrics by: Ryan Bingham, T Bone Burnett
e. “WINTER” — BROTHERS
Music by: U2
Lyrics by: Bono

WINNERS BY MOTION PICTURE DISTRIBUTOR
AND TELEVISION NETWORK
MOTION PICTURE DISTRIBUTOR
The Weinstein Company 12
Warner Bros. Pictures 9
Paramount Pictures 7
Sony Pictures Classics 6
Lionsgate 5
Twentieth Century Fox 5
Fox Searchlight Pictures 4
Sony Pictures Releasing 4
Summit Entertainment 4
Universal Pictures 4
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures 4
Focus Features 2
Relativity Media LLC 2
Apparition 1
Elephant Eye Films 1
Miramax Films 1
Oscilloscope Laboratories 1

WINNERS BY MOTION PICTURE
AND TELEVISION SERIES OR PROGRAM
MOTION PICTURE
UP IN THE AIR 6
NINE 5
AVATAR 4
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS 4
THE HURT LOCKER 3
INVICTUS 3
IT’S COMPLICATED 3
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL PUSH BY SAPPHIRE 3
A SINGLE MAN 3
(500) DAYS OF SUMMER 2
BROTHERS 2
CRAZY HEART 2
THE INFORMANT! 2
JULIE & JULIA 2
THE LAST STATION 2
UP 2
BAARIA 1
THE BLIND SIDE 1
BROKEN EMBRACES 1
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS 1
CORALINE 1
DISTRICT 9 1
DUPLICITY 1
AN EDUCATION 1
EVERYBODY'S FINE 1
FANTASTIC MR. FOX 1
THE HANGOVER 1
THE LOVELY BONES 1
THE MAID 1
THE MESSENGER 1
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG 1
A PROPHET 1
THE PROPOSAL 1
A SERIOUS MAN 1
SHERLOCK HOLMES 1
WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE 1
THE WHITE RIBBON 1
THE YOUNG VICTORIA 1

And the commentary...

BEST PICTURE/DRAMA (and other things)...A number of notes here...

*UITA...more noms than any other picture in either category with 6. (Pic, Director, Script, Actor and both Kendrick and Farmiga for supporting actress...it's a really good day for my Telluride buddy, Jason Reitman...who has never been anything but gracious in our brief conversations both this year and 2 years ago when Juno took TFF by storm).

*The Hurt Locker, which had a great day with critic's awards the past few days, had an OK Globe day...but no mentions for acting for Jeremy Renner or Anthony Mackie.

*A really good day for "Inglorious Basterds"...4 noms for Pic, Directing, Screenplay and Cristoph Waltz or Supporting Actor...probably is an Oscar boost for it.

*Invictus...no nom for Best Drama, but noms for Eastwood, Freeman and Damon...make you kind of scratch your head...still with 10 Oscar slots...you have to figure it's got that nomination very nearly locked up. You also have to figure that "Avatar" or "Basterds" is what bumped it from the Best Pic nom. Or maybe "Precious"....which leads to...

*Precious...Is the backlash for real? It gets a Best Drama nom, but no director or script nom to go with it. No surprise that Sidibe and Mo'Nique got nommed...I will say that the Mariah Carey boomlet may be over...I thought that this precursor was the place most likely for her name to show up and thought it was virtually mandatory for that to happen to springboard her into serious Oscar discussion...Admittedly, though, the Supporting Actress category is LOADED this year.

*An Education...MIA in the Best Drama category...again, may benefit from the 10 Oscar slots...but only a single nom for Carey Mulligan...no director, script, or most notably, Supporting Actor noms...Molina being the most likely, although Saarsgard has been mentioned too. Admittedly, I wasn't nearly as impressed as a lot of people with this film when I saw it in Telluride, and can't say that it's absence from the Best Drama list surprises me all that much...though I DO think Molina is great and deserving of a nom for his work.

*The Lovely Bones...Wow...One nom for Tucci in Supporting (and nothing anywhere else)...and I am getting the sesne that that may even be dicey...Some crtics arguing that the performance is about as subtle as a hammer. He may be more likely to be nominated for his work in Julie and Julia.

*The Weinstiens...thanks largely to "Nine" in the Music/Comedy categories and "Inglorious Basterds" in the drama...they led all producers with 12...nice day for them.

*Sony Pictures Classics...mixed, but pretty good day. Dominated Foreign Films...3 of the 5 ("Broken Embraces," "A Prophet" and White Ribbon") nominated...but maybe surprised at the dearth of notice for "An Education".

BEST PICTURE/MUSIC-COMEDY:

*Nine...5 nominations...a good day...maybe a little disappointment for the Weinsteins in that Penelope Cruz was its only nom in Supporting Actress, and that Rob Marshall was overlooked in Directing, but a plus that Marion Cotillard was nommed in for Lead Actress in Music/Comedy.

*Of the 4 others ("Hangover," "It's Complicated," "(500 Days) of Summer," and "Julie and Julia"...only J & J has a real shot at one of the 10 Best Pic Oscar noms.

OTHER PLAYERS IN THE OSCAR BEST PIC RACE...

*"The Last Station"..noms for Helen Mirren and Chris Plummer this morning aid their campaigns. I still think that as it gains viewers that it may sneak into the Oscar 10 and the Adapted Screenplay races...it hasn't peaked yet...hasn't been seen by many and with Oscar ballots not out until Dec. 28th, may seem like a good replacement for films that fade (like "Bones")

*"The Road"...probably saw it's chances end this morning. At a minimum it needed Viggo Mortensen to get a nom for Drama Lead and another "surprise" nom like for script or Supporting Actor to have any chance to continue a campaign. Too bad. I still think that it's the Best Film of the year...

*"A Single Man"...with noms for both Firth and Moore, it stays in the conversation for a Best Pic nom in the expanded field

*A Serious Man"...May have needed something more than Michael Stuhlbarg's nom in Lead Music/Comedy...like directing or script...maybe still a part of the conversation...but...

*"Crazy Heart"...Jeff Bridges has moved to the top of the Best Actor list...but this late entry in the Oscar sweepsatkes also probably needed some more help to be a serious contender for a Best Picture nom.

"The Messenger"...probably needed some more help than just the single nom for Woody Harrelson...

*"Bright Star"...done!

And finally...
*Avatar...a good day for James Cameron...Its Picture and Director noms make it a serious contender in the Best Pic Oscar race

ACTOR/DRAMA-Tobey Maguire is the surprise here for "Brothers". Also, it's a little weird that this was the only nom for the Jim Sheridan film...if the HFPA was really hot for it, you'd have thought we see it in some other categories. Maguire's inclusion almost certainly bumped either Renner or Mortensen. Bridges, Clooney, Firth and Freeman were all expected.

ACTRESS/DRAMA-Mirren, Mulligan and Sidibe...as expected. Bullock, not a huge surprise, but Emily Blunt was a bit of a surprise...Bullock and Blunt probably took out Abbie Cornish ("Bright Star') and Saroise Ronan ("Lovely Bones").

ACTOR/MUSIC-COMEDY-I don't think there were any surprises here...And Day-Lewis is the only likely entrant from this list for the Oscar...

ACTRESS/MUSIC-COMEDY-Well, this category is just crazy. Streep twice, Bullock, again...and Julia Roberts??? Cotillard and Streep (Julia) are the players that have a shot at an Oscar nom.

DIRECTOR-Cameron and Tarantino are the big beneficiaries. Eastwood, Reitman and Bigelow were to be expected. Hurt...Rob Marshall and Lee Daniels.

SUPPORTING ACTOR-Harrelson is a little bit of a surprise here. Plummer, Tucci, Waltz and Damon..no real surprise. Hurt: Alfred Molina.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS-No surpirses here...Cruz, Moore, Farmiga, Kendrick and Mo'Nique...all have been on the prospective lists. If there was any surprise at all, it might be that both women from UITA were nommed. Hurt: Judi Dench ("Nine") , Maggie Gyllenhall ("Crazy Heart") and Samantha Morton ("The Messenger").

SCREENPLAY-"District 9"...nice!!! Let's not forget in the discussion of whether "Star Trek" or "Avatar" makes some noise as a Sci Fi pic in the Oscar race, how good this low budget, no-name film really was. "It's Complicated" also was a tiny surprise...Is it a Best Pic threat? The other three scripts will probably be on the Oscar lists in their appropriate categories.

FOREIGN-Sony Pictures Classics dominates..."Broken Embraces" might have been a little surprise...but Almodovar and Cruz are loved by the HFPA. "A Prophet" and "The White Ribbon" were both no surprise.

TELLURIDE CONNECTIONS: UITA with 6, "The Last Station" with 2, And one apiece for "An Education", "A Prophet" and "The WHite Ribbon".

Oscar noms announced on Feb.2!

The Oscar Clearinghouse will post updated data on Friday as we head to the Holiday break!

TFF #36 Critics/AFI and The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow have had a really good last couple of days...

The American Film Institue Top Ten for 2009:

“Coraline,” “The Hangover,””The Hurt Locker,” “The Messenger,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Sugar,” “Up” and “Up in the Air.”

Los Angeles Film Critics:

PICTURE: "The Hurt Locker"Runner-up: "Up in the Air"

DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"Runner-up: Michael Haneke, "The White Ribbon"

ACTRESS: Yolande Moreau, "Séraphine"Runner-up: Carey Mulligan, "An Education"

ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"Runner-up: Colin Firth, "A Single Man"

ANIMATION: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"Runner-up: “Up"

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Summer Hours"Runner-up: "The White Ribbon"

NEW GENERATION: Neill Blomkamp, "District 9"

MUSIC/SCORE: T-Bone Burnett and Stephen Bruton, "Crazy Heart"Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Philip Ivey, "District 9"Runner-up: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg, "Avatar"

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Christian Berger, "The White Ribbon"Runner-up: Barry Ackroyd, "The Hurt Locker"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, "Precious"Runner-up: Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"Runner-up: Peter Capaldi, "In the Loop"

SCREENPLAY: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air"Runner-up: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche, "In the Loop"

DOCUMENTARY / NON-FICTION FILM: "The Beaches of Agnès" and "The Cove" (tie)DOUGLAS E. EDWARDS INDEPENDENT/EXPERIMENTAL FILM/VIDEO: Anders Edstrom and C.W. Winter, "The Anchorage"

New York Film Critics:

FILM: "The Hurt Locker"
DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker"
SCREENPLAY: "In The Loop"
ACTRESS: Meryl Streep for "Julie & Julia"
ACTOR: George Clooney for "Up In The Air" and "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo’Nique for "Precious"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Christian Berger for "The White Ribbon"
ANIMATED FILM: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
NON-FICTION FILM: "Of Time And The City"
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Summer Hours"
FIRST FEATURE: "Hunger," director Steve McQueen

And the nominees for The Critics Choice Awards (Broadcast Film Critics):

BEST PICTURE
Nominees:• Avatar• An Education• The Hurt Locker • Inglourious Basterds• Invictus• Nine• Precious• A Serious Man • Up• Up In The Air
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:• Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart • George Clooney - Up In The Air • Colin Firth - A Single Man• Morgan Freeman - Invictus • Viggo Mortensen - The Road • Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:• Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria • Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side • Carey Mulligan - An Education • Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones • Gabourey Sidibe - Precious • Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:• Matt Damon - Invictus • Woody Harrelson - The Messenger • Christian McKay - Me And Orson Welles • Alfred Molina - An Education • Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones • Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:• Marion Cotillard - Nine • Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air • Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air • Mo’Nique - Precious • Julianne Moore - A Single Man • Samantha Morton - The Messenger
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Nominees:• Jae Head - The Blind Side • Bailee Madison - Brothers• Max Records - Where The Wild Things Are • Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones • Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Road
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Nominees:• Inglourious Basterds • Nine • Precious • Star Trek • Up In The Air
BEST DIRECTING
Nominees:• Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker• James Cameron - Avatar • Lee Daniels - Precious • Clint Eastwood - Invictus • Jason Reitman - Up In The Air• Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:• Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker • Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - A Serious Man • Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - (500) Days Of Summer • Bob Peterson, Peter Docter - Up • Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:• Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach - Fantastic Mr. Fox • Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell - District 9 • Geoffrey Fletcher - Precious • Tom Ford, David Scearce - A Single Man • Nick Hornby - An Education • Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner - Up In The Air
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:• The Hurt Locker• Nine • Avatar • The Lovely Bones• Inglourious Basterds
BEST ART DIRECTION
Nominees:• A Single Man • Avatar • Nine • The Lovely Bones• Inglourious Basterds
BEST EDITING
Nominees:• Up In The Air • Inglourious Basterds • The Hurt Locker • Avatar • Nine
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:• Nine • Bright Star • The Young Victoria • Inglourious Basterds • Where The Wild Things Are
BEST MAKEUP
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • Nine • The Road • Star Trek
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Lovely Bones • Star Trek • 2012
BEST SOUND
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Hurt Locker • Nine • Star Trek
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:• Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs • Coraline • Fantastic Mr. Fox • Princess And The Frog • Up
BEST ACTION MOVIE
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Hurt Locker • Inglourious Basterds • Star Trek
BEST COMEDY
Nominees:• (500) Days Of Summer • The Hangover • It’s Complicated • The Proposal • Zombieland
BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Nominees:• Gifted Hands • Grey Gardens • Into The Storm • Taking Chance
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees:• Broken Embraces• Coco Before Chanel • Red Cliff• Sin Nombre • The White Ribbon
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees:• Anvil • Capitalism: A Love Story • The Cove • Food, Inc.• Michael Jackson’s This Is It
BEST SONG
Nominees:• "All Is Love" - Karen O, Nick Zinner - Where The Wild Things Are• "Almost There" - Randy Newman - The Princess And The Frog • "Cinema Italiano" - Maury Yeston - Nine • "(I Want To) Come Home" - Paul McCartney - Everybody’s Fine • "The Weary Kind" - T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham - Crazy Heart
BEST SCORE
Nominees:• Michael Giacchino - Up • Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant! • Randy Newman - The Princess and the Frog • Karen O, Carter Burwell - Where The Wild Things Are • Hans Zimmer - Sherlock Holmes

Commentary:

Well...obviously, "The Hurt Locker" is going strong...this may signal a bit of weakening in the "Up in the Air" juggernaut as well as the decline in support for "Precious". "The Last Station" may be suffering from its limited presence...(ONLY at Telluride)...Additionally, "TheLovely Bones" mixed (at best) reviews signal that its place in Osacr land continues to be questionable. And I'm kind of getting the vibe that "Avatar" may succumb to the sci-fi curse and get a bunch of tech nominations, but be shut out of Best Picture.

The Golden Globes nominations are announced tomorrow morning...we'll see what they reveal...and post the Clearinghouse one more time before we head away for the Holiday Break! See you tomorrow!

TFF #36/Oscar Clearinghouse and The National Board of Review

Invictus had a good day from the National Board of Review...Up in the Air's day was better...

The first real bell rang yesterday with the announcement from the National Board of Review of their choices for film excellence for 2009...good day for "Up in the Air"...

Here's their complete list:

Awards for 2009:
Best Film UP IN THE AIR

Top Ten Films(In alphabetical order) AN EDUCATION, (500) DAYS OF SUMMER, THE HURT LOCKER, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, INVICTUS, THE MESSENGER, A SERIOUS MAN, STAR TREK, UP, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

Best Foreign Language Film A PROPHET

Top Five Foreign Films(In alphabetical order) THE MAID, REVANCHE, SONG OF SPARROWS, THREE MONKEYS, THE WHITE RIBBON

Best Documentary THE COVE

Top Five Documentaries(In alphabetical order) BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY, CRUDE, FOOD, INC., GOOD HAIR, THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

Top Independent Films(In alphabetical order) AMREEKA, DISTRICT 9, GOODBYE SOLO, HUMPDAY, IN THE LOOP, JULIA, ME AND ORSON WELLES, MOON, SUGAR, TWO LOVERS

Best ActorGEORGE CLOONEY, Up In The Air; MORGAN FREEMAN, Invictus

Best Actress CAREY MULLIGAN, An Education

Best Supporting Actor WOODY HARRELSON, The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress ANNA KENDRICK, Up In The Air

Best Ensemble Cast IT'S COMPLICATED

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor JEREMY RENNER, The Hurt Locker

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress GABOUREY SIDIBE, Precious

Spotlight Award for Best Directorial Debut DUNCAN JONES, Moon; OREN MOVERMAN, The Messenger; MARC WEBB, (500) Days of Summer

Best Director CLINT EASTWOOD, Invictus

Best Adapted Screenplay JASON REITMAN and SHELDON TURNER, Up In The Air

Best Original Screenplay JOEL AND ETHAN COEN, A Serious Man

Best Animated Feature UP

Special Filmmaking Achievement WES ANDERSON, The Fantastic Mr. Fox

William K. Everson Award For Film History JEAN PICKER FIRSTENBERG

Freedom Of Expression BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY; INVICTUS; THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

TFF #36 players on NBR's awards list are: UITA gets Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay. AN EDUCATION gets Actress and Top Ten. Zip for The Road, Bright Star and The Last Station...

The only film playing in UITA's league on the NBR list was Clint Eastwood's Invictus...which got the directing nod for him plus a Best Actor tie with Clooney for Morgan Freeman and Top Ten as well as a nod on their "Freedom of Expression" list...

Other TFF films making noise on NBR's lists...A Prophet (Best Foreign), The White Ribbon (Top Five Foreign)...and Revanche from TFF #35 (Top Five Foreign).

MIA...Precious got one notice for Gabby Sidibe's "Breakthrough Female Performance". So is the "Precious" boom over??? Backlash anyone?

...and nothing yet from Avatar, Nine, or The Lovely Bones (purportedly Nine and Bones have been "seen" by the NBR folks and Avatar still not so much).

New York and LA film critics choices are just around the corner...what will they tell us?