TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #6

Avatar is making a move on the Clearinghouse's lists.





Here is the latest update of our compilation of a number of Oscar prediciton sights and lists...highlighting the connections to TFF #36 (CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture- 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 4) Nine (tie), 6) Avatar, 7) Up, 8) AN EDUCATION, 9) Inglourious Basterds, 10) A Serious Man.

In the Hunt: The Lovely Bones, The Messenger, A Single Man,THE LAST STATION, Star Trek.

Comment: Big Mo...Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger and Star Trek.

Losing Mo...An Education and The Lovely Bones (And I mean BIG TIME!).

Gone from the list: BRIGHT STAR, THE ROAD, and Julie and Julia.

My personal guess of the four big gainers is the The Messenger has legs and that both Avatar and Inglourious Basterds will lose some steam over the next few weeks...(Avatar because a number of reviews are saying the tech is great, but the movie itself...not so much and I think that Inglourious may have peaked...it did have a good week this week...but I think its violence may hold it back.)...I also still think that Last Station and now, The Messenger may have the best shot at moving onto the list of 10 nominees of those films that are not currently in the top 10...Other top 10 that may be at risk...An Education and Nine (the reviews for Nine are less than stellar). Can The Road sneak back into the conversation? It's Rotten Tomatoes average is 24 points better than Nine.

Also, saw Invictus this weekend...nice movie, decent perfromances from Freeman and Damon...but Oscar worthy? Nope. Will that matter to the Academy? Don't know.

Best Director: 1) JASON REITMAN/UITA, 2) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 3) Lee Daniels/Precious, 4) James Cameron/Avatar, 5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus

Sniffin' Around: Rob Marshall/Nine, Quentin Tarantino/Basterds, LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION, Coen Bros/Serious Man, and Peter Jackson/Bones.

Comment: Big Mo is with: Lee Daniels (weird since he got no Golden Globe love), James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino.

Losing ground: Rob Marshall and Peter Jackson

Goners: None

If Inglourious has legs, then Tarantino will move into the top 5...I think the only two sure bets at this point are my friend Jason Reitman and Kathryn Bigelow...The Lovely Bones collapse has almost swallowed Jackson...

Best Actor: 1) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 2) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) Colin Firth/Single Man, 4) Morgan Freeman/Invictus, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker

In Play: Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Michael Stuhlbarg/Serious Man, Matt Damon/The Informant, and Ben Foster/The Messenger.

Off the chart: Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine

Movers: Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster...Goin' South: Morgan Freeman

Comment: SAG noms seem to indicate that Day-Lewis and Nine (also Rob Marshall's decline in the director's race) are losing ground across the board. See above note about the reviews...may be having an impact already.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) Gaby Sidibe/Precious, 4) HELEN MIRREN/LAST STATION, 5) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side.

Seeking: Marion Cotillard/Nine, ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Saroise Ronan/ Lovely Bones, and Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Hot: Bullock and Cruz

Not: Cornish and Ronan

Gone: Michelle Monaghan/Trucker

Comment: The top 4 remain the same as our last post (3 weeks ago). Sandra Bullock has ascended like a rocket...

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Chrsitoph Waltz/Inglourious Basterds, 2) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 3)Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 5) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger

Also: Matt Damon/Invictus, Christian McKay/Orson Wellea and Me, Alec Baldwin/It's Complicated, Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, and PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION.

Hot: Harrelson and Baldwin

Not: Damon, Mackie and Saarsgard

Gone: Tucci (for J & J) and PAUL SCHNEIDER/BRIGHT STAR.

Thoughts: Harrelson came screaming onto the chart this past couple of weeks and Baldwin is a trendy pick too right now. Molina hasn't suffered any drop off among prognosticators despite the fact that he was snubbed by the Globes and the SAG announement...it's that SAG one that really seems to indicate a disconnect between the predictors and what seems to be the reality on the ground...which is no nom for Molina. Tucci also doesn't seem to be suffering from the drag of less than blazing critical embrace for The Lovely Bones...at least not yet. I suspect that if Molina and/or Tucci start losing traction that McKay and Baldwin are the most likely beneficiaries.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) MoNique/Precious, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) Julianne Moore, 4) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 5) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR.

And...Samantha Morton/The Messenger, Judi Dench/Nine, Melanie Laurent/Inglourious Basterds, Natalie Portman/Brothers, and Sigourney Weaver/Avatar.

Hot: Morton, Laurent, Portman and Weaver

Not: Cruz

Gone: Sarandon, Cotillard, Carey

Notes: Weirdness as Melanie Laurent, who has been getting the notice as a potential nominee was overlooked in favor of Diane Kruger...who hasn't made the top ten of our combined survey (she just got a bit of notice in the wake of her SAG nom in this week's updates).

Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2)Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Julie and Julia

Also: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, and The Fantastic Mr. Fox

Hot: Julie and Julia and Fantastic Mr. Fox

Not: No one really dropping badly

Gone: Where the Wild Things Are

Comment: I suspect that the top 3 are solid. Invictus and J&J ,maybe not so much. If Bones and Nine continue to lose steam, then Single Man and Last Station probably benefit.

Original Screenplay; 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) A Serious Man, 3) Up, 4) Inglourious Basterds, 5) (500 Days) of Summer

And: Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, It's Complicated, The Messenger, and District Nine.

Hot: Hurt Locker, The Messenger and Avatar

Cold:Up and District 9

Gone: The White Ribbon

Notes: I think your top five right now are likely to be the nominees when they're announced Feb. 2

Nom leaders: UITA-6, Precious-4, Hurt Locker, Invictus, An Education-4, Inglourious Basterds-3

Noms and possibles combined: Nine-7 (5 now in the "possible category"...it's dropping like Lovely Bones did last month), UITA-6 (all noms!...the most solid thing going right now and has been since Telluride!). An Education also at 6, Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus, Basterds, Lovely Bomes and The Messenger -5, and Avatar, Serious Man, A Single Man and Last Station-4.

Telluride nominations as of this post i the Big 8 categories: 12...Possibles: 7. Down from the last post.

TFF #36 will also have some noms added for tech and foreign films (A Prophet and The White Ribbon are locks.)

The Clearinghouse will be back after the first of the year. We return to Telluride for the first time during the winter next week as we head there to ring in 2010...may catch a movie at The Nugget...rumored to be playing the last week of 2009...Up in the Air...weird, huh? Happy New Year Everyone!