Director's Guild Noms are out: Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, James Cameron/Avatar, Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, Lee Daniels/Precious and Jason Reitman/Up in the Air.
Daniels edges out Eastwood...Daniels gets the boost he needed after the Golden Globes snub.
Now on to the Clearinghouse update...EXPANDED! (Now more categories). TFF in CAPS & BOLD
Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Avatar, 4) Precious, 5) Inglorious Basterds, 6) Invictus, 7) AN EDUCATION, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Nine
Outsiders: The Messenger, District 9, THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, Crazy Heart
Gone: The Lovely Bones, Star Trek
Hot: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, District 9 and Crazy Heart
Not: Invictus, Nine
Comment: The Lovely Bone collapse is complete as it drops entirely off the top 15 contenders for Best Pic...Nine's collapse is on-going and I expect it to continue. As a matter of fact, I think that the top 5 spots are solid, and that everything after that is still in play. I think it's likely that An Education and Invictus support is soft, that Up will suffer because it's animated and A Serious Man is awfully "small" and "nichey"...That means that any one of or maybe all 5 of the "outsiders" are still in play for a best Pic nomination.
Director: 1) K. Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) J. Cameron/Avatar, 3) J. REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Q. Tarantino/Basterds, 5) C. Eastwood/Invictus
Also...L. Daniels/Precious, L. SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, Coen Bros./Serious Man, M. HANEKE/THE WHITE RIBBON, J. CAMPION/BRIGHT STAR, P. Jackson/Lovely Bones
Gone: R. Marshall/Nine
Hot: Tanatino and Haneke
Not: Reitman and Daniels...although as noted above, the DGA nod today probably changes this assessment
Comment: Bigelow, Cameron and Reitman are locks...then Eastwood, Daniels and Tarantino are duking it out for the last 2 spots...although Tarantino is closing in on lock status as well.
Best Actor: 1) G. CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 2) J. Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) C. Firth/A Single man, 4) M. Freeman/Invictus, 5) J. Renner/Hurt Locker
Others: D. Day-Lewis/Nine, V. MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, T. Maguire/Brothers, M. Sthulbarg/A Serious Man, B. Foster/The Messenger.
Hot: Maguire
Not:
Gone: Matt Damon/The Informant
Comment: The separation between the top five and the rest is now substantial. Renner has established himself as a probable nominee. Mortensen may have the best chance to sneak in and unseat Freeman or Renner...
Best Actress: 1) C. MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) M. Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) G. Sidibe/Precious, 4) S. Bullock/Blind Side, 5) H. MIRREN/LAST STATION
Others: M. Cotillard/Nine, A. CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, S. Ronan/Lovely Bones, E. Blunt/Young Victoria, P. Cruz/Broken Embraces.
Hot: Blunt
Not:
Gone:M. Gyllenhall/Crazy Heart
Comment: The 5 nominations are done.
Supporting Actor: 1) C. Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) C. PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 3) W. Harrelson/The Messenger, 4) S. Tucci/Lovely Bones, 5) M. Damon/Invictus
Others: A. MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, C. McKay/Orson Welles and Me, A. Baldwin/It's Complicated, A. Mackie/Hurt Locker, P. SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION
Hot:
Not: A. Molina
Gone:
Comment: Surprisingly, Tucci has been able to withstand the collapse of The Lovely Bones...so far. I think he and Damon are still vulnerable. McKay and Molina still have some hope.
Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) A. KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine
Others: S. Morton/The Messenger, M. Cotillard/Public Enemies, J. Dench/Nine, M. Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and D. Kruger/Inglorious Basterds.
Hot: Cotillard
Not:
Gone: Natalie Portman/Brothers and Sigourney Weaver/Avavtar
Comment: The top 4 spots seem solid. I think Cruz will drop and be replaced by Morton.
Adapted Script: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) AN EDUCATION, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 5) District 9 (although there is some buzz that it's not eligible!!!)
Others: Fantastic Mr. Fox, Where the Wild Things Are, Julie and Julia, THE LAST STATION, In the Loop
Hot: Dist. 9, Fox, and Wild Things
Not: Julie and Julia
Gone: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man
Comment: An incredibly fluid category. The top three seem locked...then it's any one's guess for the last two spots. Gotta say...surprised that A Single Man dropped off the top ten.
Original Script: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) Up, 5) (500) Days of Summer
Others: The Messenger, It's Complicated, Avatar, WHITE RIBBON, BRIGHT STAR
Hot: The Messenger
Not: Avatar
Gone: District 9 (moved to Adapted)
Comment: The top 5 might have this locked already.
TECH Categories!
Art Direction: Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, Public Enemies...
Cinematography:Inglorious Basterds, Nine, The Hurt Locker, BRIGHT STAR, Avatar...
Film Editing: UP IN THE AIR, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Nine, Inglorious Basterds...
Score: Up, Avatar, The Informant, Sherlock Holmes, Where the Wild Things Are...
Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up Star Trek, Transformers...
Sound Mixing: Avatar, Transformers, Star Trek, Up, The Hurt Locker...
Costume: BRIGHT STAR, Nine, Young Victoria, Inglorious Basterds, Sherlock Holmes...
Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, Princess and the Frog (twice) and Everybody's Fine...
Documentary: The Cove, Food Inc., Every little Step, Burma VJ, Mugabe and the White African
Foreign Film: A PROPHET, THE WHITE RIBBON, SAMSON AND DELILAH, Letters to father Jacob, Broken Promise.
Predicted Nominations:
The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds-8
UP IN THE AIR, Nine-7
Up-6 (includes anticipated Best Animation nom)
Invictus-5
Precious-4
AN EDUCATION, BRIGHT STAR-3
THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart-2
Telluride connected other possible nominations:
An Education-3
The Last Station-3
The White Ribbon-3
Bright Star-3
The Road-2
Coco Before Chanel-1
Toatal TFF #36 Nominations-18 (includes 3 in Foreign Film...excludes Animation, Short Doc)
Additional TFF #36 possibles: 15
Final thoughts:
Will Nine's collapse eat its Tech nominations?
Does the PGA nom mean Star Trek might stage a Best Pic comeback?
Do The Messenger, District 9 or The Last Station have enough steam to move into the Best Picture race in the next three weeks?
The Road sits at #16 on the Best Pic chart and #11 on Adapted Screenplay...any chance in either category?
Can anyone derail Waltz or Mo'Nique?
Nominations are 3 and 1/2 weeks away!
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