Well...
We're post-Telluride, post-Venice and post-Toronto...it's time!
Here's your first look at The Oscar Clearinghouse for 2010. The focus from now until Oscar night is to track what's hot and what's not and, most importantly, how the films from Telluride #37 are playing in the sweepstakes for Oscar success. We try to do that by combining and assessing the Oscar prognostication work done through traditional and internet media. As we start this year's analysis, we utilized the predictions already out there from the following:
Film Misery
Scott Feinberg
Gurus of Gold at Movie City News
The Envelope from the LA Times
InContention.com
Film Experience
We'll add others as the Oscar season picks up speed.
As always, Telluride films will be in CAPS and in BOLD.
Best Picture:
The second year for ten nominees and here are your leaders at this point: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) The Kids Are Allright, 5) Inception, 6) Toy Story 3, 7) ANOTHER YEAR, 8) True Grit, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.
And the next five lurking are: Made in Dagenham, Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone and THE WAY BACK.
Comment: The separation between Social Network and King's Speech is negligible. I was a bit surprised that Rabbit Hole didn't get enough juice to be on the initial list of 15. I expect that will change. I was also a little surprised that Scorsese's Shutter Island got no mention.
Best Director: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter.
The next five (well six, actually): Christopher Nolan/Inception, Lisa Cholodenko/Kids Are Allright, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, The Coen Brothers/True Grit, John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK.
Comment: The Social Network and The King's Speech may be neck and neck in the Best Picture category but Fincher has a commanding early lead on the field for Best Director. Personally, I suspect that we'll eventually see Nolan jump into the top 5 and Russell fall.
Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/The Kids Are Allright, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANNVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Sally Hawkins/Made in Dagenham
The next five: Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are Allright, Naomi Watts/Fair Game.
Comment: It seems that the "Kids Are Allright" folks have opted to place both Bening and Moore in the lead category. I don't know if that's honesty, reflecting the relative equal size of the roles or if they really think they've got a shot to land 2 Best Actress noms from the same film. Bening seems a lock as does Portman. The other three spots...up for grabs.
Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 4) Jesse Eisenburg/The Social Network, 5) (tie) Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
The next four: Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Sean Penn/Fair Game.
Comment: Firth is a solid first. Franco also seems a near lock. I'm a little surprised that Eisenberg is in the top 5...even though the hype for Social Network is huge.
Best Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Melinda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, 5) Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole
The next five: Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Amy Adams/The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.
Comment: My surprise here is that there isn't any love for Marion Cotillard in Inception. She gets the best acting moments in what is one of the biggest films of the year and an almost certain best picture nominee. I would have thought that she might be the lone acting aspirant from that film...but nary a breath of that from any of our predictors. This may be the most competitive race of them all.
Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are Allright, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) Justin Timberlake/The Social Network
The next six: Bill Murray/Get Low, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Josh Brolin/True Grit, Dustin Hoffman/Barney's Version and VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.
Comment: Like Supporting Actress, this is a very competitive category...at least right now. I think Rush is a lock despite sitting at #2 behind Bale...who I don't think IS a lock at this point. Social Network would pull off quite the coup if it can snag noms for both Garfield and Timberlake. Last note here...I'm campaigning for Colin Farrell from The Way Back!
Original Screenplay: 1) The Kids Are Allright, 2) ANOTHER YEAR, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) The Fighter, 5) Inception
The next five: Hereafter, THE ILLUSIONIST, Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine
Comment: I'm wondering if The Illusionist is really an "original" script since it's a Tati script that was intended to be live action the Sylvain Chomet has made as an animated film.
Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Rabbit Hole, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) Love and Other Drugs
The next six: 127 HOURS, THE WAY BACK, Miral, True Grit, The Town, How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: If the heat continues to build for 127 Hours, it will likely slip up the ladder here.
AND THE NUMBERS:
If the nominees for the Big Eight categories were announced today and these prognosticators were 100% correct there would be:
6 Nominations each for The Social Network, The King's Speech and The Fighter.
4 apiece for Another Year, True Grit, 127 Hours and The Kids Are Allright
3 for Toy Story 3.
When combined with potential nominations the leader becomes True Grit with 7 noms and potentials. Social Network and King's Speech stay at 6 noms and are joined by: The Fighter, The Kids Are Allright and Black Swan each with a total of 6 noms or potentials. Others with 4 noms and/or potentials are: 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, and The Way Back.
As of this posting Telluride films account for 15 nominations and 11 potentials in these Big Eight categories. And of course there are a bunch more nominations to be had in the other categories as well as Foreign and Documentary. I think it's very likely that Telluride will have its largest Oscar presence in the three years I've been doing the blog.
Additionally, since this is the first edition of the Clearinghouse for this year, it's difficult to tell which films have momentum and which are losing momentum...that being said, I' ll take a stab: I am sensing that The Fighter is losing ground, Hereafter may never get off the ground in the Oscar derby and True Grit may be bigger than we all know at this point. Of course, that could all be wildly wrong.
I'll be back soon with an update.
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