The OC #3

Danny Boyle, Aron Ralston and James Franco of 127 HOURS

The Third Edition of The Oscar Clearinghouse...featuring some backlash and a charge or two.

Sources: Awards Daily, Film Misery, In Contention, David Poland/Gurus of Gold/Movie City News, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit, and Film Experience.

TELLURIDE FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) [TIE] THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) True Grit, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) [TIE] 127 HOURS and Inception, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) The Fighter

Next Five: Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Fair Game, Hereafter, Rabbit Hole.

Dropping Out: Secretariat

Hot: True Grit, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK

Not: Hereafter

Comment: True Grit continues its assault on the top ten list...despite having been seen by no one. I mentioned in the last post that this is showing us the power of a really good trailer...and I think that continues to be true. And despite its continued place atop the Best Picture list, The Social Network may be suffering from some backlash. That's showing itself more in the other races...But even in the Best Pix race, it's been caught by THE KING'S SPEECH in the last 2 weeks after enjoying a fairly substantial lead in the category. Big boosts to Winter's Bone and THE WAY BACK the last 2 weeks. And Hereafter is dropping like a stone.

Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Coen Brothers/True Grit, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Dropping Out: Doug Liman and David O. Russell

Hot: ARONOFSKY, WEIR and Granik

Not: LEIGH, Cholodenko

Comment: The Fighter's fortunes maybe on the wane as well as Russell's status would indicate. The Winter's Bone boom also shows up in this category with Granik on the list for the first time. And Mike Leigh takes a hit...which I think portends some bad future news for ANOTHER YEAR which is too bad because it's one of my favorite films of the year.

Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 5) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole

The Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Anne Hathawy/Love and Other Drugs, Diane Lane/Secretariat, Sally Hawkins/Made in Dagenham

Dropping Out: Naomi Watts

Hot: Diane Lane

Not: Watts

Comment: I saw some critical advocacy last week for the notion that I've held since I saw ANOTHER YEAR in Telluride... that Lesley Manville should be in the Supporting Category...so we'll see.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

The Next Five: JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Jesse Eisenberg/Social Nework, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game

No one dropped out

Hot: No one

Not: Bridges and Eisenberg

Comment: The first inkiling we have that the bloom may be coming off The Social Network rose. Eisenberg drops from # 5 to #7...and, listen, I've seen The Social Network since the last OC...and I'm a moderate fan of Fincher's and a BIG FAN of Sorkin. But...it's NOT a great film and Eisenberg's performance is the same thing he always does. Seriously, I see no definable character difference between his Zuckerberg and the kid he plays in Zombieland! I know I'm speaking heresy here...but it's just an OK film with OK performances...

Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

The Next Five: Miranda Richardson/Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Kristin Scott Thomas/Nowhere Man, Amy Adams/The Fighter, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Dropping Out: Fanning, Hershey, Hall

Hot: Weaver, Spacek, Thomas, and Cotillard

Not: Richardson

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. At this point Weist and Carter seem likely locks (although I even wonder about Weist). It's a category up for grabs.

Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Sam Rockwell/Conviction, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

The Next Five: Andrew Garfield/Social Network, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Josh Brolin/True Grit, Bill Murray/Get Low, Jeremy Renner/The Town

Dropping out: Damon, Cassel

Hot: Rockwell, Murray and Renner

Not: Garfield

Comment: Another category that seems to indicate that there's a backlash against Social Network. A month ago when we published the first OC for this year both Garfield and Timberlake were among the likely nominees. Now they're both in the "lurking" category...and Garfield, who has always been the more likely of the two to actually get a nomination slid a good piece in the last 2 weeks. BTW, I still think Colin Farrell deserves a nod for THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

The Next Five: Rabbit Hole, How to Train a Dragon, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Dropping Out: Miral

Hot: 127 HOURS, How to Train Your Dragon and The Town

Not: THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Comment: A big charge from 127 HOURS the last two weeks. This category is one that DOESN'T show any real loss of ground for Social Network.

Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

The Next Five: How Do You Know, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Hot: KING'S SPEECH, How Do You Know, and Blue Valentine

Not: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere

Comment: James Brook's new film (How Do You Know) makes its first appearance on the OC...it's a real joker in the deck...will we see it elsewhere in the next update? Rudd, Witherspoon, Nicholson???

And the numbers...if the above was correct...

Nominations in the Big 8 categories:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6

127 HOURS, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right-4

The Social Network, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, The Fighter-3

Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2

Combined "nominations" and "near nominations":

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, True Grit, The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right-6

127 HOURS, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole-4

Get Low, Blue Valentine, Made in Dagenham-3

Fair Game, Love and Other Drugs, The Town, Toy Story 3-2

Telluride "nominations"- 17... "near nominations"- 6...

And, of course, the ritual reminder...there will be other nominations for Telluride films in technical categories, documentary categories and perhaps even animation...

Back around Thanksgiving!