The Oscar Clearinghouse #4

"The Fighter" has come out swinging...

It helps when people have actually seen your film. David O. Russell's "The Fighter" featuring Mark Wahlburg, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams has stormed into contention after press screenings were generally positive. Also warming up some over the last 4 weeks..."The Town," "Winter's Bone" (which is likely to get more boosts from its success at the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Nominations) and "Get Low." Losing some steam..."True Grit" (although I really expect that to change in the next week or so as screenings have occurred and the press embargo for that is supposed to end tomorrow...) and "Another Year" (which is too bad, because I really liked "Another Year" a lot).

Here's the breakdown on the last day of November using the source material from: Movie City News Gurus of Gold, Awards Daily, Film Misery, InContention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TELLURIDE #37 FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) Inception, 6) The Kids Are All Right, 7) True Grit, 8) The Fighter, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) Winter's Bone

Close: The Town, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine

Out: Fair Game, Hereafter

Hot: 127 HOURS, The Fighter, The Town

Not: True Grit, ANOTHER YEAR

Thought: Social Network and King's Speech continue to jockey for the top spot despite what I think is still an almost subliminal decline foe Social Network. I continue to think that this category is a four horse race with those two plus True Grit and Inception battling for the prize. Also, finally saw The Kids Are All Right...and it's all right...over-rated, over-hyped, but all right.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN

Close: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, David O. Russell/The Fighter, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Out: Debra Granik/Winter's Bone

Hot: Russell

Not: Weir

Thought: What an ugly category. 7 players for the 5 spots. I still think the Coens get in and Aronofsky will be on the outside looking in.

Best Actress: 1) Anette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Close: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naomi Watts/Fair Game

Out: Diane Lane, Sally Hawkins

Hot: Swinton

Not: Manville...look out. The droop of Another Year's fortunes seems to be dragging her out of the race.

Thought:See above

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

Close: Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Pau Giamatti/Barney's Version

Out: Sean Penn

Hot: Bridges and DiCaprio

Not: Giamatti

Thought: Bridges continued assault may be a better indicator that True Grit is a serious player as opposed to the movement in the Best Picture category.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2)Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

Close: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Hailey Steinfeld/True Grit, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Out: Kristin Scott Thomas

Hot: Adams and Kunis

Not: Steinfeld

Thought: Nothing shows the jump that The Fighter has made more clearly than the leap the Amy Adams has enjoyed in the last couple of weeks.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Close: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Matt Damon/True Grit, Jeremy Renner/The Town, Bill Murray/Get Low

Out: Josh Brolin

Hot: Garfield, Damon

Not: Rockwell

Thought: Bale and Rush continue to duke it out...

Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) True Grit

Close: Rabbit Hole, The Town, THE WAY BACK, How to Train Your Dragon, The Ghost Writer

Out: Love and Other Drugs

Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

Close: The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Get Low, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Out: How Do You Know

Hot: Get Low

Thought: Maybe Another Year's only nomination.

Telluride films are losing some ground as they sit at this counting with 16 predicted nominations in the Big Eight categories and 8 other possible nominations...

NOMS:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6,

The Fighter, Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, 127 HOURS-4,

Inception, True Grit, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone-3

Toy Story3, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2

NOMS + POSSIBLES

The Fighter-7

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit-6

BLACK SWAN-5

127 HOURS, Inception, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Get Low-4

And later this week...The National Board of Review releases its list of the Best Films of 2010...