How many nominations for "The King's Speech" on January 25th?
Here's one more Clearinghouse in a big way before the end of 2011. TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.
The Clearinghouse is using data gathered from Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience for this latest chart.
BEST PICTURE: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Inception, 4) The Fighter, 5) Toy Story 3, 6) BLACK SWAN, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) True Grit, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) Winter's Bone.
Next Five: The Town, ANOTHER YEAR, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine.
Hot: The Fighter and Black Swan
Not: 127 Hours
Thought: The bunching at the top between "Social Network" and "King's Speech" could not be tighter. My current theory is that "Social" has peaked too soon and with so much unanimity (so many critic's accolades...) that "King's" will still win Best Picture. A lot of conventional wisdom says lately that "127 Hours" will slide off the list of 10 nominees and be replaced by "The Town." That would also mean that Danny Boyle would slip off the Best Director list of 5 nominees. "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" are both getting some good boost in the last month. It would also appear that the only other film hovering under the current ten likely nominees that has any realistic chance of stealing a Best Picture nomination is "Another Year." I'd be completely OK with that. As I have said in this space it was one of my favorites at Telluride this year. Certainly a better film than "The Kids Are All Right' "Toy Story 3" and, dare I say it "The Social Network."
BEST DIRECTOR 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS
Next Five: David O. Russell/The Fighter, Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
Hot: Aronofsky and Granik
Not: PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK (who fell off the top ten) and Leigh.
Thought: Again, Boyle may be out next time and Russell and The Coens are the likely candidates to get the fifth nomination. For my money it should be the Coens (but I haven't seen "Winter's Bone" yet, it's sitting on my DVD player as I write). In a perfect world there would be 6 nominees and Boyle could stay on the list.
BEST ACTRESS: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annete Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR
Next Five (well three): Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Hilary Swank/Conviction and 4 others tied at the number 9 spot.
Hot: Swank...who rejoins the list after her Golden Globe nomination
Not: Nobody really nuked since the last Clearinghouse
Thought: It's a two horse race Portman and Bening neck and neck (they keep trading the top spot on the Clearinghouse and are current separated by 2 points) and likely to be that way right up to the opening of the envelope. Personally, I'd vote for Portman. I'd also like to see Manville hang on for the 5th spot, but I have a suspicion that that's not going to happen. Nobody is seeing the film and (as I've said repeatedly) it's ACTUALLY A SUPPORTING ROLE! Realistically and probably the fifth spot ends up in Michelle Williams hands.
BEST ACTOR: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jeff Bridges/True Grit.
Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version.
Hot: Eisenberg
Not: Bridges
Thought: Increasingly becoming Firth's to lose (he has perfect score on The Clearinghouse). I think Franco's a lock and after that you have 5 guys shooting for the remaining 3 spots...and Bardem isn't in that group.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 3) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom.
Next Five: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.
Hot: Leo, Adams, Steinfeld and Kunis
Not: Weist
Thought: The most fun category of the Big 8. It's fluid, and tightly packed. And full up with terrific performances. It's going to be tough to leave some of these women off the carpet on Oscar night. Leo and Adams are riding a "Fighter" wave. Kunis is riding a "Swan" wave. Steinfeld's "Grit" is finally in theaters and it's stunning and Bonham Carter just keeps hanging in. I suspect that they'll ultimately be the five nominees and that Weaver and Weist will be on the outside looking in.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/Social Network, 5) Jeremy Renner/The Town
Next Five: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Bill Murray/Get Low, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, Money Never...
Hot: Hawkes
Not: Harris
Thought: Bale's to lose. He's one point off a perfect score. I love Rush's performance in "King's Speech" but Bale is fantastic as Wahlberg's wastrel brother in "The Fighter." You really can't take your eyes off his performance. For my money you can have Ruffalo and Garfield..they're OK...but not in the same league as Bale and Rush's performances. The top four are likely nominees with Renner, Hawkes and Rockwell realistically slugging it out for the last spot. I think Harris's chances are gone because "The Way Back's" profile is so small as to be virtually invisible.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit
Next Five: The Town, Rabbit Hole, How to Train Your Dragon, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer.
Hot: Zip
Not:Also zip.
Thought: So little movement here from the last Clearinghouse. The top five are pretty solid with "Rabbit Hole" and "The Town" the only realistic spoilers.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter
Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine, Get Low, Somewhere, Made in Dagenham.
Hot: Zip
Not: Blue Valentine
Thought: Kings and Kids are locks. After that it gets dicey in this category with the next 5 listed films all real possibilities to get one of the three remaining nominations.
UNDERVIEWS:
Telluride #37 films have 15 of the 45 nominations in the Big 8 categories if The Clearinghouse is to be believed at this moment and another 9 possibles. There will be further nominations in the technical categories (one source thinks that "The King's Speech" could get up to 12 nominations by itself) as well as the Foreign Film category (Biutiful) and Documentary/Shorts categories... I still think TFF #37 could end up with 30 plus nominations.
And to repeat..."Social Network," Kids Are All Right" and "Toy Story 3"...over rated!
"True Grit, " "The King's Speech" and "Another Year"...see them now!
After the New Year (which we plan to spend back in Telluride...woo hoo!), The Clearinghouse will begin to include prognostications on the technical and other categories as well.
Have a great Holiday, everyone!
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