The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....