Ten days...
Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.
Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.
Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.
Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.
Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.
Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.
Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.
Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.
Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...
Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.
Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.
Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.
Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.
Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.
Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.
Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:
Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.
Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.
Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.
Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.
Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.
Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.
Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.
Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.
Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...
Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.
Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.
Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.
Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.
Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.
Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.
Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:
The King's Speech wins 5 or 6 depending on Score ( and could get a 7th for Costume).
Inception wins 3.
The Social Network wins 2 or 3 (also depending on Score and could steal a 3rd or 4th if Fincher snags the Directing prize).
The Fighter and Toy Story 3 win 2 apiece.
And one Oscar each for: True Grit, Incendies, Inside Job, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, and Black Swan.
Categories that are fluid: Director, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Film Editing, Score, Song, Documentary and Foreign Film.
More next week...
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