Special to the FAC: Best Actor and WGA nominations

SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: BEST ACTOR 18 DAYS OUT

The FAC takes a snapshot look at individual categories using the predictive resources of:

Awards Daily (Sasha Stone)

Incontention.com (Kristopher Tapley at HitFix)

The Hollywood Reporter (Scott Feinberg)

Entertainment Weekly (Dave Karger)

Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeffrey Wells)

Thompson on Hollywood (Anne Thompson)

Film Misery

Film Experience

Awards Circuit

BRAD PITT MAKES A MOVE

For the first time since I began tracking the various Oscar prognosticators back in September the Best Actor leader is NOT either George Clooney or Jean Dujardin.  It’s Brad Pitt for Moneyball (by a single point over Clooney).  It’s a tight race and here’s where it stands as of this morning (with Telluride #38 actors in bold).  If the nominations were announced this morning they would be (according to the combined wisdom of these prognosticators):

1) Brad Pitt/Moneyball

2) Geroge Clooney/The Descendants

3) Jean Dujardin/The Artist

4) Michael Fassbender/Shame

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar

In the running:

6) Gary Oldman/Tinker, Tailor and Demian Bichir/A Better Life (tie)

8) Michael Shannon/Take Shelter

9) Woody Harrelson/Rampart

10) Ryan Gosling/The Ides of March

Others receiving votes:

Ryan Gosling/Drive

Joseph Gordon-Levitt/50/50

The top five are all pretty solid right now.  There has been slight erosion on the part of DiCaprio so he’s the most vulnerable to a surprise, although I don’t think that Fassbender is a cinch yet either.  Among the “in the running” types, if there was to be a surprise or two, I think that Gosling is the only one who is entirely unlikely.

Overall, if I were a wagering man (and it was legal), I’d be pretty comfortable with these top 5 being the nominees.

Tomorrow: Best Actress!

WRITER’S GUILD NOMINATIONS

WGA and writing nominations were announced yesterday and here they are:

WGA ORIGINAL BEST SCREENPLAY NOMS: 50/50, WIN WIN, BRIDESMAIDS, YOUNG ADULT AND MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

WGA BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY NOMS: THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, THE DESCENDANTS, THE HELP, HUGO AND MONEYBALL

Of course, so many scripts were ineligible because of the particular quirks of the rules for this organization that the Oscar predictive value isn’t all that remarkable.  Still, it doesn't hurt either.

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