Special to the FAC: Best Picture

SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: BEST PICTURE 16 DAYS OUT

The FAC takes a snapshot look at individual categories using the predictive resources of:

Awards Daily (Sasha Stone)

Incontention.com (Kristopher Tapley at HitFix)

The Hollywood Reporter (Scott Feinberg)

Entertainment Weekly (Dave Karger)

Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeffrey Wells)

Thompson on Hollywood (Anne Thompson)

Rope of Silicon (Brad Brevet)

Film Misery

Film Experience

Awards Circuit

BEST PICTURE LOOKS LIKE A FIVE HORSE RACE AND HOW MANY BP NOMINATIONS WILL THERE BE, 7 OR 8?

A little more than two weeks away from the Oscar nomination announcement and anticipation is building as we get closer.  Here’s how the Best Picture race looks as of this morning (TFF #38 films Bold and Large):

1) The Artist

2) The Descendants

3) War Horse

4) Hugo

5) The Help

6) Moneyball

7) Midnight in Paris

8) The Tree of Life

9) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

10) Bridesmaids

11) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

12) The Ides of March

13) Drive

14) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

15) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Others receiving votes: J. Edgar, A Separation, Young Adult, Take Shelter, 50/50 and Shame.

Since my last big post of the Big Eight categories, the top seven films have stayed in the same positions.

Films with some new heat are “Bridesmaids”, which is REALLY HOT.  Also semi-warm…”Tinker Tailor” and “Harry Potter”.  There are a good number of the Oscar “brains” that now think that “Bridesmaids” has a real shot at a Best Pic nomination…I’m dubious.

Films that have lost some steam: “Extremely Loud”, “J. Edgar” and “My Week with Marilyn”.  Though I have a suspicion that “War Horse” may be losing some momentum as well, but that’s just an intuition.

I still think there will be 7 BP nominees (instead of 8) and that “Paris” “Moneyball” and “Tree of Life” are going to be battling for the 6 and 7 spots.  I would be really surprised if any of the Best Picture nominees come from outside the 1 thru 8 spots on the above chart.

Monday’s Director’s Guild announcement may give us some insight.  If Malick is nominated, Tree of Life (which also lost some steam, at least anecdotally and intuitively) has a better shot to get in.  Same for DGA nods for Miller and Allen.  If Spielberg is NOT a DGA nom…”War Horse” could be in some serious BP trouble.

I’ll take a look at where the Diretor’s race is on Monday as a part of my regular semi-weekly post and prior to the DGA announcement.  Have a good weekend everyone!

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