Gurus Top 2/BAFTA Results & Anlaysis/Berlin Take Two/Descendants as Underdog/Berenice/Chico & Rita/In Darkness

Good morning.  Pardon the sporadic posting this last week and a half or so...been doing a show and was juggling too many objects simultaneously...
The show closes Saturday night...I'll do what I can...

GURUS TOP TWO

Movie City News has its Gurus of Gold participants lined up and their cumulative predictions about where the Oscar race stands right now (final ballots are due on Feb. 21).  In some categories, the Gurus are so decisive that it's really just a Top One...in some categories there isn't enough unanimity to really claim a Top Two...so they fudge...

Take a look:

Part One: http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-top-2in-it-pt-1-of-2/

Part Two: http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-top-2in-it-pt-2-of-2/

Consensus leaders that are so far in front so that I can label them prohibitive favorites:
Picture: The Artist
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer/The Help
Original Screenplay: Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
Foreign Film: A Separation
Animated Feature: Rango
Art Direction: Hugo
Original Score: The Artist
Original Song: Man or Muppet/The Muppets

If any of these lose on Feb. 26th, it will be regarded as a real upset.

All other 15 categories are close enough that we can't label them as done deals.

BAFTA RESULTS

THe Britisih Academy of Film Televsion Arts announced their winners last night.  It was a big night for "The Artist".  Here's te complete list of nominees and winners from The Hollywood Reporter:

BEST FILM
*WINNER: The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
My Week With Marilyn - Simon Curtis, David Parfitt, Harvey Weinstein, Adrian Hodges
Senna - Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Manish Pandey
Shame - Steve Mcqueen, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Abi Morgan
*WINNER: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Tomas Alfredson, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo, Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan
We Need To Talk About Kevin - Lynne Ramsay, Luc Roeg, Jennifer Fox, Robert Salerno, Rory Stewart Kinnear

LEADING ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
George Clooney, The Descendants
*WINNER: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame

LEADING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
*WINNER: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Viola Davis, The Help

SUPPORTING ACTOR
*WINNER: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan, Drive
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Judi Dench, My Week With Marilyn
Melissa Mccarthy, Bridesmaids
*WINNER: Octavia Spencer, The Help

DIRECTOR
*WINNER: The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
Drive, Nicolas Winding Refn
Hugo, Martin Scorsese
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Tomas Alfredson
We Need To Talk About Kevin, Lynne Ramsay

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Attack The Block - Joe Cornish (Director/Writer)
Black Pond - Will Sharpe (Director/Writer), Tom Kingsley (Director), Sarah Brocklehurst (Producer)
Coriolanus - Ralph Fiennes (Director)
Submarine - Richard Ayoade (Director/Writer)
*WINNER: Tyrannosaur - Paddy Considine (Director), Diarmid Scrimshaw (Producer)

ANIMATED FILM
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn - Steven Spielberg
Arthur Christmas - Sarah Smith
*WINNER: Rango - Gore Verbinski

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*WINNER: The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
Bridesmaids, Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig
The Guard, John Michael Mcdonagh
The Iron Lady, Abi Morgan
Midnight In Paris, Woody Allen

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
The Help - Tate Taylor
The Ides of March - George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
Moneyball - Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin
*WINNER: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Incendies - Denis Villeneuve, Luc Déry, Kim Mcgraw
Pina - Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel
Potiche - François Ozon, Eric Altmayer, Nicolas Altmayer
A Separation - Asghar Farhadi
*WINNER: The Skin I Live In - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustin Almodóvar

DOCUMENTARY
George Harrison: Living In The Material World - Martin Scorsese
Project Nim - James Marsh, Simon Chinn
*WINNER: Senna - Asif Kapadia

CINEMATOGRAPHY
*WINNER: The Artist - Guillaume Schiffman
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo - Robert Richardson
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Hoyte Van Hoytema
War Horse - Janusz Kaminski

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Artist - Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2 - Stuart Craig, Stephenie Mcmillan
*WINNER: Hugo - Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald
War Horse - Rick Carter, Lee Sandales

COSTUME DESIGN
*WINNER: The Artist - Mark Bridges
Hugo - Sandy Powell
Jane Eyre - Michael O'Connor
My Week With Marilyn - Jill Taylor
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Jacqueline Durran

MAKE UP & HAIR
The Artist - Julie Hewett, Cydney Cornell
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2 - Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin
Hugo- Morag Ross, Jan Archibald
*WINNER: The Iron Lady- Marese Langan
My Week With Marilyn - Jenny Shircore

SOUND
The Artist - Nadine Muse, Gérard Lamps, Michael Krikorian
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2 - James Mather, Stuart Wilson, Stuart Hilliker, Mike Dowson, Adam Scrivener
*WINNER: Hugo - Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy- John Casali, Howard Bargroff, Doug Cooper, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley
War Horse - Stuart Wilson, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Richard Hymns

EDITING
The Artist- Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius
Drive - Mat Newman
Hugo - Thelma Schoonmaker
*WINNER: Senna - Gregers Sall, Chris King
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy - Dino Jonsater

S

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn- Joe Letteri
*WINNER: Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2- Tim Burke, John Richardson, Greg Butler, David Vickery

Hugo - Rob Legato, Ben Grossman, Joss Williams

Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes - Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White

War Horse - Ben Morris, Neil Corbould

SHORT FILM
Chalk - Martina Amati, Gavin Emerson, James Bolton, Ilaria Bernardini
Mwansa The Great- Rungano Nyoni, Gabriel Gauchet
Only Sound Remains- Arash Ashtiani, Anshu Poddar
*WINNER: Pitch Black Heist - John Maclean, Gerardine O'Flynn
Two and Two - Babak Anvari, Kit Fraser, Gavin Cullen

SHORT ANIMATION
Abuelas - Afarin Eghbal, Kasia Malipan, Francesca Gardiner
Bobby Yeah - Robert Morgan
*WINNER: A Morning Stroll - Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe

ORIGINAL MUSIC
*WINNER: The Artist - Ludovic Bource
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
HUGO - Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Alberto Iglesias
War Horse - John Williams

THE ORANGE WEDNESDAYS RISING STAR AWARD (Voted For By The Public)
*WINNER: Adam Deacon
Chris Hemsworth
Chris O’Dowd
Eddie Redmayne
Tom Hiddleston

BERLIN TAKE TWO

Last week I noted that with the Berlin International Film Festival ongoing, we really are at the beginning of some kind of semi-informed speculation about what might appear at Telluride in September.  I noted that last year Berlin unspooled "The Turin Horse", "A Separation" and "Pina" all of which played at TFF #38.  Now, after a bit more digging, I can tell you that the trend goes back at least a few years.  These films played at Berlin and then made there way to the San Juans on Labor Day:
2010: "If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle"
2009: "London River"
2008: "Happy Go Lucky" and "I've Loved You So Long"

So it's a pretty safe bet that one to three films playing in Berlin's lineup will appear in T-ride in 7 months...now, if we could just figure out what they'll be...


THE DESCENDANTS AS UNDERDOG

As you check out The Gurus Best Picture chart above, you'll see that "Hugo" and "The Help" are the only other of the BP nominated films given any chance to unseat "The Artist" and not much of a chance at that.  I would concur with that assessment with the proviso that I have also been saying that "The Descendants" has a shot at the upset.  That seems to be a non-existent possibility at this point...except...

Maybe I'm NOT the only one...
Brooke Barnes at The New York Times outlines Fox Searchlight's continuing strategy for the Alexander Payne film...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/10/movies/awardsseason/for-the-descendants-a-new-angle-in-the-oscar-race.html?_r=1

Additionally, The Race at The Hollywood Reporter has what they purport to be the last "Descendants" pre-Oscar interview here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/george-clooney-oscar-the-descendants-289266

 BERENICE

Speaking of the inevitability of "The Artist", The Hollywood Reporter also had an interview with its female lead and Best Supporting Actress nominee (and the Mrs. to writer/director Michel Hazanavicius) Berenice Bejo:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/the-artist-berenice-bejo-oscar-287812

CHICO AND RITA



2010's (TFF #37) Patron special film was the animated "Chico and Rita" and it is nominated for Best Animated Feature.  Kris Tapley at Incontention/HitFix has a look at the production company responsible for it:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/gkids-makes-a-statement-this-season-with-two-animated-feature-nominees

IN DARKNESS

And finally, if there is any foreign film that has much of a chance to upset "A Separation" it is likely "In Darkness".  Annette Insdorf, Columbia professor and frequent moderator of panels at Telluride has a look at that film for The Huffington Post here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/annette-insdorf/in-darkness-review_b_1258078.html?ref=entertainment

Later...

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