The Film Awards Clearinghouse 2012 #1/Oscar Notes and Changes/Argo in Front?/Post Festival Analysis

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE #1

My first FAC for the year and I’ve added and changed a few things.  First, I have included Cinematography and Film Editing for as a part of the FAC starting with this first post.  That expends from what I’ve called The Big 8 categories the last three years to “The Big Ten”.

Also, I took a look back this week at the predictive success of The FAC for its first four years.  I compared the initial projections for 2008, 09, 10, and 11 with the actual nominees for each of those years and found that, on average, 60% of the predicted nominees actually become nominees.  Further, another 21% of actual nominees get listed as “possible” in the first FAC.  19% of all nominees don’t show up either place on the first pass.

Also, The FAC was great in 2010 with a 95% success rate for predicted nominees and possible.  2009 was awful  with only a 62%  success rate.  So, some facts to ponder as we head to the first actual predictions…

Mining the Predictive power of Kristopher Tapley (InContention/HitFix), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Knegt (IndieWire), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter), Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience) , Alex Carlson (Film Misery), and Clayton Davis (Awards Circuit).  Telluride Films are Bold!

BEST PICTURE (Again this year there will be 5 to 10 nominees.  Last year there were 9.)

1) Argo

2) Silver Linings Playbook

3) Lincoln

4) The Master

5) Beasts of the Southern Wild

6) Les Miserables

7) Amour

8) Life of Pi

9) Zero Dark Thirty

10) Django Unchained

11) Promised Land

12) Moonrise Kingdom

13) Flight

14) The Sessions

15) Anna Karenina

Comment:  I would bet that the first four are locks even this early and that one of them win. This could be the most competitive Best Picture race we’ve seen in a long, long time.  After the first four , it’s anyone’s guess.  Frankly, I’ll be a bit surprised if Michael Haneke’s “Amour” is a BP nominee.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master

2) Ben Affleck/Argo

3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook

4) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln

5) Michael Haneke/Amour

6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables

7) Ang Lee/Life of Pi

8) Behn Zeitlein/Beasts of the Southern Wild

9) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained

10) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty

Comment: The top five look good.  I might trade Zeitlein for Haneke.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook

2) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild

3) Naomi Watts/The Impossible

4) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone

5) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina

6) Emanuelle Riva/Amour

7) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs

8) Viola Davis/Won’t Back Down***

9) Laura Linney/Hyde Park on Hudson

10) Maggie Smith/Quartet

(***it’s unclear whether Davis will be considered in Lead or Supporting)

Comment: At this point, I think the only sure bet is Lawrence.  Although I have to say I’d be surprised to see a nomination for any of the women in the 6 through 10 spots.

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master

2) John Hawkes/The Sessions

3) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln

4) Denzel Washington/Flight

5) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook

6) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables

7) Jean Trintignant/Amour

8) Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson

9) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained

10) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master***

(***Hoffman is also splitting votes between Lead and Supporting)

Comment: This is a category that has been very Telluride-centric over the past several years but that same dominance doesn’t look likely this year.  The top three guys are probably locks.  I’m leery of a Denzel nomination with no others likely for “Flight”.  Cooper is pretty hot coming out of Toronto.

First shameless plug for someone from The FAC…Jack Black in “Bernie”.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables

2) Amy Adams/The Master

3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions

4) Sally Field/Lincoln

5) Maggie Smith/Exotic Marigold Hotel

6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables

7) Kerry Washington/Django Unchained

8) Vanessa Redgrave/Song for Marion

9) Judi Dench/Exotic Marigold Hotel***

10) Annette Bening/Imogene

(***Dench also is possible as either Lead or Supporting)

Comment:  Not one Telluride possibility to be found in this category in our first iteration.  I’d guess Hathaway, Adams, Hunt and Field are all very likely.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained

2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master***

3) Alan Arkin/Argo

4) David Stratharin/Lincoln

5) Dwight Henry/Beast of the Southern Wild

6) Matthew McConnaghey/Magic Mike

7) William H. Macy/The Sessions

8) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook

9) Hal Holbrook/Promised Land

10) John Goodman/Argo

(***see Best Actor note above)

Comment: It’s possible that “Argo” could land more than one nomination in this category.  My personal plug here would be for Bryan Cranston who had some notice form some of the predictors but not enough to crawl onto the chart.  Maybe next time.  I’m not sure that any of the top five are truly locks at this point.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Argo

2) Silver Linings Playbook

3) Beasts of the Southern Wild

4) Lincoln

5) Life of Pi

6) Les Miserables

7) Anna Karenina

8) The Sessions***

9) The Dark Knight Rises

10) Killing Them Softly

(***The Sessions is also getting substantial votes in the Original Screenplay category.  I think it will be in the Adapted category)

Comment:  The screenplay nominations are notoriously difficult to predict even when you get close to the nomination announcement.  Still, I might place money on the top four.  I'll be pumping for a nomination here for "The Sapphires" if The Weinstein Company decides to drop it into the 2012 awards season.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Moonrise Kingdom

2) The Master

3) Django Unchained

4) Amour

5) Zero Dark Thirty

6) Promised Land

7) The Sessions***

8) Flight

9) Seven Psychopaths

10) Frances Ha

(***See note above concerning “The Sessions”)

Comment: See note above…  This category seems very, very fluid as we begin.  I’m not sure that anything is a lock except maybe “The Master”.  I'm pushing for a nomination for "Frances Ha".

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Master

2) Life of Pi

3) Lincoln

4) Beasts of the Southern Wild

5) The Dark Knight Rises

6) Anna Karenina

7) Django Unchianed

8) Les Miserables

9) Cloud Atlas

10) The Hobbit

Comment: New category to start this early and all 10 seem reasonable possibilities. 

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo

2) Lincoln

3) The Master

4) Zero Dark Thirty

5) The Dark Knight Rises

6) Life of Pi

7) Les Miserables

8) Django Unchained

9) Silver Linings Playbook

10) Beasts of the Southern Wild

Comment:  The other new category for this early and often a key indicator of Best Picture success.  I’m thinking the top five are good guesses but not necessarily carved into stone.

OTHER OSCAR NOTES

The Gold Derby is up with its first lineup of predictions as well.  Find it here:

Gold Derby
http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2012-nominations-nominations/best-picture.html

ALSO SOME CHANGES ARE COMING TO OSCAR #85

Those changes include new dates for nomination ballots to be due and nomination announcements. Pete Hammond at Deadline.com has that explanation here:
http://www.deadline.com/2012/09/oscars-surprising-changes-hammond-analysis/

Oscar has also altered the way its voters can vote as outlined by Reuters:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/idINL1E8KIL5F20120919

OSCAR POKER

The first post Telluride Oscar Poker podcast from Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) with guest Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) has been posted.  You can find it at both of these places:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode92.mp3

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/09/post-toronto_po.php

ARGO IN FRONT

HitFix's Greg Ellwood agrees with The FAC's first assessment and that Telluride sneak preview "Argo" is the front runner for Best Picture at this early point in the season.  Here's his rationale:
http://www.hitfix.com/awards-campaign/contender-countdown-argo-is-on-the-lookout-for-frontrunner-killers

And with the approaching release on Oct. 12 there is a new "Argo" poster:

POST TORONTO

Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood has posted a Toronto wrap up:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/toronto-wrap

And also with a view of the post Telluride/Venice/ Toronto landscape:
Peter Knegt of IndieWire with 10 things we "know" post-festivals.
http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-10-things-the-fall-fests-did-tell-us-about-award-season

And finally, Entertainment Weekly eyes 10 films that they think boosted their Oscar profile in Toronto:
http://www.ew.com/ew/gallery/0,,20483133_20628605,00.html#21211285


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