Michael's Telluride Film Blog : FAC Update: Picture & Supporting/Oscar Matters/Amour and Rust and Bone News

Good Monday Everyone...I don't know about you, but I'm staring down a Turkey!

Watched Part One of Ken Burns' "The Dust Bowl" last night on PBS. It will come as no surprise that it's terrific and very moving. Also, I liked seeing the credits at the end that included me and the CEO. Part Two is tonight.

THE FAC UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND SUPPORTING ACTRESS AND ACTOR

BEST PICTURE

For the first time this season...absolutely no changes in the top 15 films from last week.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) The Master (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (8)
9) Flight (9)
10) Zero Dark Thirty (10)
11) Moonrise Kingdom (11)
12) Django Unchained (12)
13) Hitchcock (13)
14) The Sessions (14)
15) The Impossible (15)

Comment: Talk about a stable race. Pretty good chance that I'm going to get about 3-4 of these in this week. Excited.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (3)***
2) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (2)
3) Amy Adams/The Master (1)###
4) Sally Field/Lincoln (4)
5) Maggie Smith/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (5)
6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables (6)
7) Kerry Washington/Django Unchained (9)***
8) Judi Dench/Skyfall (New)***
9) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (8)
10) Kelly Reilly/Flight (new)***

Dropping Out: Scarlett Johannson/Hitchcock and Ann Dowd/Compliance

Comments: Anne Hathaway momentum has moved her to #1 and the favorite to probably win, although the top four women are incredibly tightly bunched as of this check.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1)
2) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (2)
3) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (5)***
4) Alan Arkin/Argo (3)
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (4)
6) Russell Crowe/Les Miserables (6)
7) Matthew McConnaughey (8)
8) John Goodman/Argo (New-ish)***
9) Bryan Cranston/Argo (10)
10) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)###

Dropping Out: Ewan MacGregor/The Impossible

Comments: DeNiro is sliding up and all three "Argo" boys are in the mix this week for the first time. The "Oscar Underground" candidate is Bryan Cranston! Dwight Henry cam perilously close to sliding off the top ten altogether.

Next Week I'll update the screenwriting categories as well as cinematography and film editing...and in two weeks, I'll go down ballot and take our first look at technical categories, music, foreign, documentaries and such.

OSCAR MATTERS