The FAC Update: Picture, Supporting, Screenplays,Visuals/Oscar Matters/Foreign Affairs

Good Morning and Happy Christmas Eve!  I hope Santa is good to you tonight...unless, of course, you've been bad this year.

THE FAC UPDATE: PICTURE, SUPPORTING, CINEMATOGRAPHY AND EDITING

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

 As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

BEST PICTURE

1) LINCOLN (1)

2) LES MISERABLES (2)

3) ARGO (4)

4) ZERO DARK THIRTY (3)

5) SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (5)

6) LIFE OF PI (6)

7) BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (7)

8) AMOUR (8)

9) DJANGO UNCHAINED (9)

10) MOONRISE KINGDOM (11)

11) THE MASTER (10)

12) THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL (12)

13) THE IMPOSSIBLE  (14)

14) SKYFALL (15)

15) FLIGHT (13)###

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) ANNE HATHAWAY/LES MISERABLES (1)

2) SALLY FIELD/LINCOLN (2)

3) HELEN HUNT/THE SESSIONS (3)

4) AMY ADAMS/THE MASTER (4)

5) NICOLE KIDMAN/THE PAPERBOY (NEW)***

6) MAGGIE SMITH/BEST EXOTIC (5)

7) ANN DOWD/COMPLIANCE (9)***

8) SAMANTHA BARKS/LES MISERABLES (6)###

9) JACKI WEAVER/SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (7)###

10) JUDI DENCH/SKYFALL (10)

DROPPING OUT: KELLY REILLY/FLIGHT

COMMENTS:  Nicole Kidman’s back to back nominations from The Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes woke the Oscar predictors up in a big way as she goes from nowhere to the #5 spot and essentially appears to be battling Maggie Smith and Amy Adams in a three way race for the last spot in this category.  Also hot is Ann Dowd who we found out this last week is funding her own campaign for the nomination…and appears to be gaining some traction.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) TOMMY LEE JONES/LINCOLN (1)

2) PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN/THE MASTER (2)

3) ROBERT DE NIRO/SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (3)

4) ALAN ARKIN/ARGO (5)

5) LEONARDO DI CAPRIO/DJANGO UNCHAINED (4)

6) CHRISTOPH WALTZ/DJANGO UNCHAINED (NEW)***

7) MATTHEW MC CONAUGHEY/MAGIC MIKE (6)

8) JAVIER BARDEM/SKYFALL (NEW)***

9) EDDIE REDMAYNE/LES MISERABLES (7)###

10) JOHN GOODMAN/FLIGHT (8)###

DROPPING OUT: SAMUEL L. JACKSON AND BRYAN CRANSTON

COMMENTS: Big boosts for Waltz, who benefits from the announcement from The Weinstein Company that he’s being campaigned in the Supporting category.  Bardem also benefits from the nomination from The Screen Actors Guild.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) LINCOLN (1)

2) SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (2)

3) ARGO (3)

4) BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (4)

5) LIFE OF PI (5)

6) LES MISERABLES (6)

7) THE SESSIONS (7)

8) PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER (NEW)***

9) ANNA KARENINA (8)

10) ON THE ROAD (9)

DROPPING OUT: THIS IS 40

COMMENTS:  “Perks” gathering some heat.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) ZERO DARK THIRTY (1)

2) THE MASTER (2)

3) AMOUR (3)

4) MOONRISE KINGDOM (4)

5) DJANGO UNCHAINED (5)

6) FLIGHT (6)

7) LOOPER (7)

8) MIDDLE OF NOWHERE (8)

9) MAGIC MIKE (NEW)***

10) THE INTOUCHABLES (10)

DROPPING OUT: PROMISED LAND

COMMENTS:  Category is pretty stable.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) LIFE OF PI (1)

2) SKYFALL (3)

3) THE MASTER (2)

4) LINCOLN (4)

5) ZERO DARK THIRTY (8)***

6) LES MISERABLES (5)

7) ANNA KARENINA (6)

8) DJANGO UNCHAINED (7)

9) BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (NEW)***

10) THE HOBBIT (NEW)***

DROPPING OUT: THE DARK KNIGHT RISES AND CLOUD ATLAS

Comments:  ZDT gets a big boost.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) ARGO (1)

2) LINCOLN (4)

3) ZERO DARK THIRTY (4)

4) LES MISERABLES (3)

5) LIFE OF PI (5)

6) THE MASTER (6)

7) SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (7)

8) SKYFALL (9)

9) THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (8)

10) DJANGO UNCHAINED (10)

COMMENTS:  This is also a very stable category.

OSCAR MATTERS

     OSCAR TALK WITH ANNE THOMPSON AND KRIS TAPLEY

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-100-looking-back-from-hurt-locker-to-zero-dark-thirty

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-zero-dark-thirty-wreck-it-ralph-animation-race-and-oscar-campaigning

     OSCAR POKER WITH JEFF WELLS

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/12/kenny_poker_xma.php

     FEINBERG FORECAST

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-10-400316

     A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-oscar-405880

    
     THE L.A. TIMES DIRECTOR'S ROUNDTABLE

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/highlights-from-la-times-directors-roundtable-with-bigelow-affleck-russell-lee-hooper-and-gervasi


FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Hollywood Reporter posts the 9 finalists for the Best Foreign Language Oscar:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/9-foreign-language-films-advance-406087


The Envelope for The Los Angeles Times talks to Best Actress hopeful Emmanuelle Riva of Michael Haneke's "Amour":

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-en-emmanuelle-riva-20121220,0,277223.story?partner=skygrid&buffer_share=4fa51&utm_source=buffer


I hope everyone has an excellent holiday...back on Thursday!

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