“Lincoln” led all films this morning with 12 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Score, and Costume. (FAC had it at 12)
“Life of Pi” was next with 11: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Original Song, Original Score and Visual Effects. (FAC had it at 10)
“Silver Linings Playbook” had 8: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. (FAC had it at 5 with 3 more “possible”)
“Les Miserables” had 8: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Original Song, Costumes and Makeup and Hair. (FAC had it with 10)
“Argo” had 7: Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Film Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. (FAC had it with 6 with 1 more “possible”)
“Amour” had 5: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay and Foreign Language. (FAC had it with 4 with 2 more “possible”)
“Zero Dark Thirty” had 5: Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Sound Editing. (FAC had it with 8 and 2 more “possible”)
“Django Unchained” had 5: Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Sound Editing. (FAC had it with 5)
“Skyfall” had 5: ( most without a Best Picture nomination)Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing (FAC had it with 4)
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” had 4: Picture, Director, Actress and Adapted Screenplay. (FAC had it with 3 and 3 more “possible”)
“Anna Karenina” had 4: Cinematography, Original Score, Costume and Production Design (FAC had it with 3 with 3 more “possible”)
TELLURIDE AT 17
TFF #39 films totaled 17 nominations this morning.
“Argo” 7
“Amour” 5
And one each for “A Royal Affair”, “No”, The Gatekeepers”, “Paperman” and “Asad”. As expected since September, it’s the smallest number of Oscar nominations for a Telluride slate in a long while.
BIGGEST SURPRISES
No Directing nominations for either Ben Affleck (Argo) or Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and Benh Zeitlin getting in for Director…huge. No Best Actor nomination for John Hawkes for “The Sessions” was also a surprise.
No Foreign Language nom for “The Intouchables” which had widely been considered the only film with a chance to challenge “Amour” in this category.
The strength of “Silver Linings Playbook” which is clearly the biggest challenge to “Lincoln” for Best Picture (not “Argo” which I had thought). SLP checked every box it needed to to be a serious Best Pic contender…Acting noms in all 4 categories, Directing, Screenplay and Film Editing noms). The Jacki Weaver nomination was a surprise to me but indicates the depth of support for the film.
I had 8 “diverging” hunches from what the FAC metric was saying…not one of them happened.
1) “The Master” gets a Best Pic nom after all…nope
2) Tarantino gets a Director’s nom…nope
3) McConaughey gets a Supporting Actor nom…nope
4) Chbosky gets nominated for Adapting “Perks of Being a Wallflower”…nope
5) “The Painitng/Le Tableau” gets an Animation nom…nope (and another pretty big surprise was the nomination for “Pirates: Band of Misfits”)
6) “Django” gets a Film Editing nom…nope
7) “The Master’s” Johnny Greenwood score gets nominated…nope
8) “Sister” gets a Foreign Language nom…nope
The best I could do on these “hunches” was targeting the films that the FAC metric was indicating as a nominee that ended up not being a nominee. I got that DiCaprio would miss in Supporting; that “Rise of the Guardians” would whiff in Animated Feature; that “Les Miz” would not be nominated for Editing; and that “Beasts’ would miss for Original Score. I just didn’t read the tea leaves correctly in these four cases about who/what would step into their places.
The other note is that in about half a dozen categories the person/film that the metric had at #6 eked out a nomination.
The FAC metric went 82/107 for a 77% accuracy rate. I guess my proudest accomplishment is the prediction that 9 films would be nominated for Best Pic and the top 9 on the metric were the nine nominated this morning.
Other categories the FAC performed well on: Adapted Screenplay (5 of 5) and Makeup/Hair (3 of 3). Worst category: Song, where the FAC was only 2 of 5.
FAC BREAKDOWN PER CATEGORY
Best Pic: 9/9.
Best Director: 2/5…the FAC had Russell at #7 and Haneke at #8. Zeitlin…not at all
Best Actress: 4/5…FAC had Wallis at #6…I personally cannot believe Cotillard was not nominated.
Best Actor: 4/5…FAC had Phoenix at #6
Supporting Actress: 4/5…FAC had Weaver at #10
Supporting Actor: 4/5…FAC had Waltz at #6
Adapted Script: 5/5
Original Script: 4/5…FAC had Gatins/Flight at #7
Animated Feature: 4/5…FAC didn’t have “Pirates” remotely close to a nomination.
Foreign Language Film: 4/5…FAC had “War Witch” at #7
Documentary: 4/5…FAC didn’t have “5 Broken Cameras” on its top 10.
Cinematography: 3/5…FAC had “Anna Karenina” at #7 and “Django” at #8
Film Editing: 4/5…FAC had “Silver Linings” at #8
Orignal Song 2/5…FAC was abysmal here. It had “Before My Time/Chasing Ice” at #9. The song from “Ted” was not in the FAC top 10.
Original Score: 4/5…FAC had “Skyfall” at #10
Production Design: 4/5…FAC had “The Hobbit” at #6
Costume: 4/5…FAC had “Snow White” at #6
Makeup: 3/3
Visual Effects: FAC had “Snow White” at #9
Sound Editing: 3/5…FAC had “Django” at #7 and “Argo” nowhere to be found.
Sound Mixing: 3/5…FAC had “Lincoln” at #8 and, again, “Argo” not in the top 10.
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