ONE DAY TO OSCAR: THE SHORTS
Among the toughest categories to predict, say the people who Oscar predict on a very serious level, are the "Shorts" categories. There are three: Live Action, Animated and Documentary. Irrespective of the difficulty, I've crunched the numbers using the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films in Bold.
Here's what the combined wisdom says...
+LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Death of a Shadow (4)
2) Curfew (3)
3) Buzkashi Boys (2)
4) Asad (1)
5) Henry (5)
Comment: With more data and more eyes actually on the nominees, this category is significantly different from its last posting. That being said, it's a very tight category and any of the top four could walk away as the winner.
+DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Inocente (1)
2) King's Point (3)
3) Mondays at Racine (4)
4) Open Heart (2)
5) Redemption (5)
Comment: There's some volatility in this category as well, not as much as "Live Action" but certainly a good amount. "Inocente" maintains its position as the favorite but the category is very tight top to bottom.
+ANIMATED SHORT
1) Paperman (1)
2) Adam and Dog (3)
3) The Longest Daycare (2)
4) Head Over Heels (4)
5) Fresh Guacamole (5) (Special note: Friuend of MTFB/FAC, Patrick Pringle, reminds me that "Frash Guacamole" played at MountainFilm)
Comment: "Paperman's" lead is fairly strong and its your likely Oscar winner but it's not a 100% lock either. "Adam and Dog" could take this Oscar.
OSCAR MATTERS: MORE FINAL PREDICTIONS
Any number of Oscar experts are making their final claims as we get down to a matter of hours before it's all over. I've included some of them here:
Oliver Lyttelton at The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/oscars-our-final-predictions-for-the-2013-academy-awards-20130221
Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon: http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2013-oscar-predictions-argo-best-picture-you-vote/
NO AND PAPERMAN
Two TFF #39 films that we'll hear called as nominees tomorrow nigh (and in the case of "Paperman" perhaps as a winner) are profiled recently. The New York Times talked to "No" director Pablo Larrain:
http://www.nytimes.com/video/2013/02/15/movies/100000002068369/pablo-larran-discusses-no.html
And Zach Laws of The Gold Derby talked to "Paperman" director John Kahrs: http://www.goldderby.com/news/4064/oscars-academy-awards-animated-short-paperman-john-kahrs-film-news-entertainment-13579086.html
Final Oscar Predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse tomorrow!
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