THE FAC: BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES
Only six days left until Oscar season is over and if you're an observer who doesn't have a horse in the race, it has been a fascinating ride these past 5 1/2 months since the Telluride Film Festival's 39th edition came to an end.
Now we're to the end game. Consequently, MTFB/FAC will post every day this week and include a final look at Oscar predictions next Sunday morning before the Oscar broadcast. It's going to be a bumpy week.
Here's a start, a look at the Big 8 categories and where they stand after the number crunching using data from the published predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.
+BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Amour (6)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (7)
7) Les Miserables (5)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)
Comment: The "Argo" trend is all but complete sweeping the predictors. Looks like its Ben's to lose at this point. And here's kind of an amazing note..."Amour" has steadily moved up the chart in the estimation of the prognosticators I check on to sit at #5. Almost in a position for a case to be made that IT could be a spoiler although better cases can be made for "Lincoln", "Silver Linings" and "Life of Pi".
+BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln(1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings (3)
4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)
Comment: This thing has become a real horse race. Spielberg maintains a small edge over Lee, but it's very small. Also, Russell is in striking distance.
+BEST ACTOR
1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Denzel Washington/Flight (4)
5) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (5)
Comment: If anyone else but Day Lewis wins this it will be one of the biggest "shocker" moments in Oscar history.
+BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (2)
3) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (3)
4) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts (5)
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (4)
Comment: Lawrence has been the front runner for months. She was seriously challenged by Jessica Chastain but that dynamic has faded. Rather, Emanuelle Riva's stock has continued to rise over the last month and now she is a very close second and the trendy pick to win (she's the first choice of 3 of my Oscar specialists). This category has become very tight.
+BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)
2) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
3) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
4) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4)
5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)
Comment: This has also turned into a real dog fight. Jones seemed to be unbeatable 6 weeks ago, but the race has evolved to the point that any of the top 4 men could win the honor and, frankly, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Arkin sneaked in to win on the strength of the "Argo" wave.
+BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1)Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)
2) Sally Field/Lincoln (2)
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)
4) Amy Adams/The Master (4)
5) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (5)
Comment: If Hathaway doesn't win, it will also be one of the biggest Oscar "shockers' in a good long time.
+BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Chris Terrio/Argo (3)
2) Tony Kushner/Lincoln (1)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) David Magee/Life of Pi (4)
5) Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)
Comment: The "Argo" momentum has carried Terrio to the top of the chart with a fractional lead over Kushner (who has lead this category for months). Keep in mind, I crunched the numbers for this morning's chart prior to Terrio winning the Writer's Guild award last night (see below). It's a two horse race with Terrio the smallest of favorites now.
+BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Michael Haneke/Amour (3)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (1)
3) Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
4) Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom (4)
5) John Gatins/Flight (5)
Comment: Mark Boal (ZDT) won last night at the WGA but Haneke wasn't eligible for that nomination (neither was Tarantino). So, this is a three horse race and pretty close as well.
So where does this put us with 6 days to Oscar? "Argo" has won major awards from the following: PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, ACE the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes. It's going to win Best Picture on Sunday night and likely Best Editing. It has a decent shot at Best Adapted Screenplay and I think still could get Best Original Score. All told 3 or 4 Oscars. The biggest total of wins on Sunday night may be "Life of Pi" which could end up winning 5-6 Oscars. There's a very real chance that "Lincoln" may go home without a single Oscar despite having the most nominations (12).
Ultimately, this is primarily a blog that focuses on Telluride films and as of this post, TFF #39 looks formidable. Despite a year with a relatively modest nomination total, The SHOW could end up with as many as 9 Oscars at the end of the night awarded to films that played this year (Think: "Argo" 4-Picture, Adapted Script, Score and Editing, "Amour" 3-Foreign Language, Original Screenplay and Actress and wins for "Paperman" and "Asad" in the shorts categories).
FINAL PRECURSORS: WRITERS AND EDITORS
The Writer's Guild of America awarded their top prizes for the year last night and as mentioned above TFF #39 Sneak Preview "Argo" was awarded for Best Adapted Screenplay. "Zero Dark Thirty" won for Original Screenplay. Hers' the report filed by USA Today:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2013/02/18/writers-guild-awards/1927303/
And on Saturday the American Cinema Editors awarded top honors to "Argo" "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Brave". Here's the story from The Playbook.
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/argo-silver-linings-playbook-take-top-editing-prizes-at-ace-eddie-awards-20130217
OSCAR MATTERS
As mentioned above, we're down to the nub on all matters Oscar related and the pundits are weighing in:
+OSCAR TALK (with Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson):
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-106-bafta-and-scripter-recap-wga-preview-and-more-shorts
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-shorts-and-documentary-baftas-and-scripters-spielberg-vs-lee-lawrence-vs-riva-and-more
+A FEW MINUTES WITH SCOTT FEINBERG (The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg talks the latest Oscar news):
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-dark-horses-421824
+GOLD DERBY OSCAR PODCAST (withe Tom O'Neil and Sasha Stone)
http://ec.libsyn.com/p/e/b/4/eb4c219213257bed/Oscars_Sasha_Stone_3.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01ce8636d2c855fcd9&c_id=5407360
+GURUS OF GOLD (the latest look at a number of Oscar categories from The Move City News poll of Oscarologists):
http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/gurus-o-gold-9-days-from-the-big-show/
More TOMORROW!
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