I'm sitting here waiting to hear the announcement out of Toronto today of the first wave of films that have been selected and that have selected the Toronto International Film Fest. I'm also waiting to see the form that announcement takes and what can be gleaned from the information that they share and what they chose not to share.
You can watch the Toronto announcement live at 10am EDT here:
http://live.tiff.net/#ScheduleEvents
TORONTO SPECULATION
Here's a sampling of some predictions specific to Toronto ahead of their announcement this morning:
http://www.filmprogramming.com/2014/07/tiff-2014-special-presentation-predictions/
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/what-films-will-screen-or-premiere-at-the-2014-toronto-international-film-festival
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/spit-balling-2014-toronto-film-festival-lineup-look-like/
P.S. the HitFix spec piece about Torotno above also has some intriguing Telluride guesses in a backward fashion. It's well worth a look from that perspective. Included in the T-ride guessing are Jon Stewart's "Rosewater"...yup, Ellwood's exact wording is "There are rumblings this one is going to Telluride". Ellwood doesn't completely dismiss the chance that "The Imitation Game" might play T-ride. Neither does Anne Thompson in her piece up yesterday about the whole "premiere" snagging game. It's here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/behind-the-scenes-picking-festival-openers-closers-and-galas-from-birdman-and-gone-girl-to-inherent-vice-20140721.
Other films on Ellwood's Toronto list that he includes with some Telluride potential: Tommy Lee Jones "The Homesman", J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year", Cannes Palme d'Or winner "Winter Sleep" and other Cannes favorites "Leviathan", "Two Days, One Night" and "Mr. Turner". Also mentioned as a possibility is the Sundance hit (that also played Cannes) "Whiplash, but I continue to be dubious about that chance because of Telluride's nearly universal resistance to programming Sundance fare. As I often say, it's possible but highly unlikely.
RE-VISITING THE PREDICTORS
Over the past several months a number of outlets that cover film have tried to predict what films will end up at which fall festivals. I have noticed four specifically. The Playlist published a 50 film wish list on June 30. IndieWire predicted 40 films for debuts at fests on July 8. The Guardian took a stab at predicting world premieres on June 17.
I have talked about each of these in their turn, but thought it would be good, as we wait on Toronto to announce today, to go back and re-visit them.
A couple of notes...these posts are largely about debuts/premieres and it's wise to remember that Telluride doesn't call anything a "premiere". Additionally, there will be some overlap between Venice and Telluride (I still believe "Birdman" will open Venice and then head to T-ride) and significant overlap between New York/Telluride and Toronto/Telluride (I think this will still be true for Toronto/Telluride despite the Toronto "premiere" ultimatum). So, the bottom line is that just because a film will premiere at Venice or play New York and/or Toronto as well, doesn't mean it's off the menu for Telluride.
One other disclaimer: all of these were published before Venice announced "Birdman" as its opener and New York announced "Gone Girl" to open and "Inherent Vice" as its centerpiece.
That said...
You know the only film that all three outlets suggest as Telluride-likely...for a debut? Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken". Seriously.
Only one other film is mentioned for T-ride by more than one of the three spec pieces and that's Noah Baumbach's "While We're Young" mentioned by both The Guardian and The Playlist.
In addition to "Unbroken" and "While We're Young", here are the Telluride picks from each pf the three publications:
The Guardian: "Carol", "The End of the Tour"
The Playlist: "99 Homes", "True Story" and "Kill the Messenger"
IndieWire: "Far from the Madding Crowd", "Macbeth:, "St. Vincent", "Suite Francaise", "Wild".
Check all three stories again here:
The Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2014/jun/17/venice-toronto-telluride-film-festival-2014-predictions
The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-fall-festival-50-our-wishlist-for-the-venice-telluride-and-toronto-film-festivals-20140630
IndieWire:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/fall-festival-preview-40-films-that-could-debut-in-venice-toronto-telluride-or-new-york-20140708
IMITATION TRAILERS
"The Imitation Game" official UK trailer via The Weinstein Company and YouTube
And the other "Imitation Game" trailer also from YouTube
The Weinstein Company dropped the first trailers for Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" yesterday. As regular readers are aware, I've been crossing my fingers for this as a Telluride possibility for months. My belief, however is that the releases of the trailer yesterday all but signals that it will play Toronto and in a prominent position and that the TWC folks have decided that it will play Toronto and then maybe New York. Of course, it could also be connected to the London Film Festival announcement that came yesterday as well and have nothing to do with Toronto (see below...and frankly, I don't believe this).
It's really too bad if that's true as the trailer looks fantastic. My guess is that "Imitation" will be in the thick of the awards race. Here are some of the stories that accompanied the release yesterday:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2014/benedict-cumberbatch-cracks-codes-in-two-imitation-game-trailers/
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-benedict-cumberbatch-breaks-the-code-in-first-trailer-for-the-imitation-game-20140721
http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-benedict-cumberbatch-stops-nazis-in-first-trailer-for-awards-hopeful-the-imitation-game-20140721
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/the-imitation-game-trailer-benedict-cumberbatch-alan-turing/
http://www.thewrap.com/benedict-cumberbatch-keira-knightley-race-to-break-nazi-code-in-first-imitation-game-trailer-video/
http://variety.com/2014/film/news/watch-trailer-imitation-game-benedict-cumberbatch-1201265802/
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/benedict-cumberbatch-cracks-the-code-in-the-trailer-for-wwii-drama-the-imitation-game
http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/benedict-cumberbatch-in-the-imitation-game/
http://thedissolve.com/news/2774-the-imitation-game-gets-a-matching-set-of-trailers/
Additional news: We also found out yesterday that "The Imitation Game" will open the British Film Institute's London Film Festival on Oct. 8.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/imitation-game-benedict-cumberbatch-open-719852
BIRDMAN FLIES TO NEW YORK
We also got word yesterday that Alejandro Gonzlaez Inarritu's "Birdman" will close the New York Film Festival. Does that diminish its Telluride chances? I doubt it. I think it's more likely a signal that it may not play Toronto at all. We may see about that tomorrow.
Here are posts concerning the "Birdman" NYFF announcement:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritus-birdman-close-719919
http://www.filmlinc.com/nyff2014/blog/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-birdman-new-york-film-festival-closing-night.
http://www.thewrap.com/birdman-to-close-new-york-film-fest/
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alejandro-g-inarritus-birdman-to-close-new-york-film-festival-plus-update-on-tracking-shot-rumors-20140721
http://variety.com/2014/film/news/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritus-birdman-to-close-ny-film-festival-1201265861/
http://moviecitynews.com/2014/07/the-film-society-of-lincoln-center-announced-today-alejandro-g-inarritus-birdman-as-the-closing-night-selection-for-the-52nd-new-york-film-festival
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/inarritus-birdman-to-close-2014-new-york-film-festival
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/birdman-close-new-york-film-festival/
MORE LATER TODAY AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM TORONTO...
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