Film Awards Clearinghouse Vol. 5A: Picture, Director, Actress, Actor/WGA Excludes/Oscar Doc List at 15/NYFCC and NBR Announce

FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 5A

Here's the latest FAC focused on Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses).

BEST PICTURE

1) Boyhood (1)
2) Selma (9)
3) Birdman (2)
4) The Imitation Game (3)
5) The Theory of Everything (4)
6) Unbroken (5)
7) Whiplash (6)
8) Gone Girl (8)
9) Foxcatcher (10)
10) Interstellar (7)
11) American Sniper (12)
12) Into the Woods (13)
13) Mr. Turner (11)
14) A Most Violent Year (14)
15) The Grand Budapest Hotel (15)

Hot: Selma's march to serious contender status is complete as it zooms past a number of serious Best Pic contenders to challenge "Boyhood".

Not: "Interstellar" takes the biggest slide which seems about right to me.  "Mr. Turner" also slides  a good bit.

It'll be interesting to see if this week's awards announcements from the New York critics, the Gotham Awards and The National Board of Review (in addition to the L.A. critics  and The American Film Institutes's list coming this weekend) have an effect when we next post these categories in a couple of weeks.  Additionally, all of the players have now been seen in some form by some people.

I'd expect that "Boyhood", "Birdman" and "A Most Violent Year" have had the best of it from NBR, NYFCC and The Gothams.  NBR's omission of "Theory" and "Selma" is curious.

BEST DIRECTION

Director Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (2)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (7)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (3)
5) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (5)
6) David Fincher (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (8)
8) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (12)
9) Christopher Nolan/Interstellar (4)
10) Bennett Miller /Foxcatcher (9)

Hot: DuVernay

Not: Nolan

The director's race gives, I think, a real window as to the Best Picture race.  "Selma's" Ava DuVernay has also rocketed from the edge of consideration into the thick of the race.  Meanwhile, Chris Nolan's plunge here is even more precipitous than "Interstellar's" drop in the Best Picture category.


BEST ACTRESS

Hilary Swank/The Homesman

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4)
5) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (6)
6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (5)
7) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (7)
8) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (8)
9) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (17)
10) Gugu Mbatha-Raw/Belle (12)


Hot:Aniston and Mbatha-Raw.  Aniston rises like a rocket over the last three weeks.  If she continues at this rate, she could sneak into the fifth spot.

Not: Cotillard.  It'll be interesting to see if Cotillard's NYFCC win has an impact on this chart in a couple of weeks.   Chastain also falls out with the realization that her role in "A Most Violent Year" is supporting.


BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2)
3) Benedcit Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (3)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (5)
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (4)
6) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (8)
7) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (6)
8) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (7)
9) Jake O'Connell/Unbroken (9)
10) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (10)

Hot: Cooper.

Not: Nobody.

It says a lot about the toughness of this category that Oyelowo barely benefits from the rocket ship that "Selma" has become the last couple of weeks.  I'm also interested to see if Spall's NTFCC win translates into increased support.


Next week, the supporting and screenplay updates.


WGA GUIDELINES EXCLUDE SOME SCRIPTS

As is the case every year, some screenplays that will be Oscar eligible are not eligible for the Writers' Guild honors.  InContention posted this story outlining some of the Oscar favorites that won't be a part of the WGA awards: (including Telluride films: "Mr. Turner" and "Wild Tales"

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/exclusive-selma-theory-mr-turner-among-2014-scripts-not-eligible-for-wga-awards


OSCAR DOC LIST IS DOWN TO 15

The Academy pared the number of possible Best Documentary nominees to a list of 15 films this week.  I have linked Variety's story that provides the list of 15.  On the list are three TFF #41 films: "Keep on Keepin' On", "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "The Salt of the Earth".  Also included is "Jodorowsky's Dune" which was on the program at TFF #40.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/15-documentaries-land-on-oscars-short-list-1201368807/


AWARDS REVIEW FROM THIS WEEK:  NYFCC AND NBR



Here's a re-post of results from the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review from earlier this week":

New York Film Critics Circle 2014 Awards

Best Animated Feature: “The Lego Movie”

Best Foreign Film: “Ida” (TFF #40)

Best Non-Fiction Film: “Citizenfour”

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons/”Whiplash”

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette/”Boyhood”

Best Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Cinematography: “The Immigrant”

Best Actor: Timothy Spall/”Mr. Turner” (TFF #41)

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard/”The Immigrant” and “Two Days, One Night” (TFF #41)

Best First Film: “The Babadook”

Best Director: Richard Linklater/”Boyhood”

Best Picture: “Boyhood”

NBR'S BEST FILMS OF 2014

Telluride Films are Bold

Best Picture: A Most Violent Year

Top Ten Films:
Boyhood
Birdman
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
Unbroken
Fury
The Lego Movie
Inherent Vice
Nightcrawler

Director: Clint Eastwood/American Sniper

Actor: Oscar Isaac/Most Violent Year and Michael Keaton/Birdman (Tie)

Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice

Supporting Actor: Edward Norton/Birdman

Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain/Most Violent Year

Original Screenplay: The Lego Movie

Adapted Screenplay: Inherent Vice

Ensemble: Fury

Breakthrough: Jack O'Connell (Starred Up/Unbroken)

Top Ten Indie Films:

Blue Ruin, Locke, A Most Wanted Man, Obvious Child, The Skeleton Twins, Snowpiercer, Stand Clear of Closing Doors, Starred Up, Still Alice

Foreign Film: Wild Tales

Top Five Foreign Films: Force Majuere, Gett: The Trial of Vivian Amsalem, Leviathan, Two Days One  Night" We Are the Best

Documentary: Life Itself

Top Five Documentaries: Art and Craft, Jodorowsky's Dune, Keep On Keepin' On, The Kill Team, Last Days of Vietnam

Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2

NBR Freedom of Expression Awards: Rosewater, Selma

LA AND AFI

I'll post the announcements from both the L.A. critics and The American Film Institute as they happen over the weekend...as always...More then, on Monday...