Pages

▼

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

The (Probably) Final FAC

Welcome to this special Wednesday edition of The Film Awards Clearinghouse with less than 24 hours to go before the announcement of Oscar nominations...

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC

Here's the last posting of the 21 Feature categories nomination predictions.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter


Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses followed by the original FAC ranking from Vol 1. back on  ).

Today, I update the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE



1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Imitation Game (3) (3)
4) The Theory of Everything (5) (6)
5) Selma (4)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (6) (10)
7) Whiplash (7)
8) Gone Girl (9) (8)
9) Nightcrawler (11)

If The Academy follows form from the last three years, this would be the cut off at nine nominations.

10) American Sniper (13)
11) Foxcatcher (10) (4)
12) Unbroken (8) (5)
13) Into the Woods (12)
14) Interstellar (14) (7)
15) Mr. Turner (15) (9)


Comment:"Selma" seems to be taking a small hit in the estimation of this collective of Oscarologists probably due the lack of a PGA nomination and The BAFTA snubbing that happened earlier this week.  "Nightcrawler" and "American Sniper" both seem to have realistic chances to get a Best Picture nomination although I continue to cross my fingers for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".

"Unbroken's" fall from favor appears to be complete.


BEST DIRECTION

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (2) (1)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4) (6)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (5) (9)

6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7)
8) Clint Eastwood/American Sniper (9)
9) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (8) (3)
10) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (13)

Comment: The "Selma" slide doesn't show any effect in this category.  Marsh rebounds a little and Jolie seems to be done.


BEST ACTOR



1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1) (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2) (4)
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (3) (6)
5) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (5)

6) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (6) (3)
7) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (8) (7)
8) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner(7) (5)
9) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (9)
10) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (10)

Comment:  Oyelowo may have suffered a bit.  Top three seem to be solid and then the next four: Oyelowo, Gyllenhaal, Carell and Fiennes fighting for that last two spots.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1) (8)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2) (1)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3) (4)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4) (3)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (5)

6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (7) (2)
7) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (6)
8) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (8) (6)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (9)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (10) (7)


Comment: The category may be locked with these top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash (1) (1)
2) Edward Norton/Birdman (2) 
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood (3) (4)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher (4) (3)
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge (5) (8)

6) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice (6) (5)
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma (7) (7)
8) Miyavi/Unbroken (8)
9) Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes (9)
10) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (NR)

Comment:  Carell's nomination in this category by the Brits sent up a flare that there could be some sentiment that he should be in the same category on Thursday morning and so, for the first time, he appears in Supporting.  Honestly, though, the top five are really solid.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood (1) (1)
2) Emma Stone/Birdman (3) (4)
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (2)
5) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (5) (8)

6) Laura Dern/Wild (6) (3)
7) Rene Russo/Nightcrawler (10)
8) Tilda Swinton/Snowpiercer (7)
9) Naomi Watts/St. Vincent (8)
10) Carmen Ejogo/Selma (9) (9)

Comment:  Meryl Streep with a late slide...giving Laura Dern a bit of life.  Rene Russo is also very, very hot.  Don't be stunned if she has the fifth spot Thursday morning.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Imitation Game (1) (2)
2) Gone Girl (2) (6)
3) The Theory of Everything (3) (3)
4) Wild (4) (8)
5) American Sniper (7) (4)

6) Inherent Vice (5) (5)
7) Whiplash (NR)
8) Unbroken (6) (1)
9) Into the Woods (8) (7)
10) Still Alice (9)

Comment:  The revelation that "Whiplash" was categorized by The Academy as an Adapted script has this and the Original Screenplay race reflecting a new reality at the 11th hour.  Next to JK Simmons, a screenplay nomination has always been the second best possibility for a "Whiplash" Oscar nomination.  So, it shows up here at #7 in its first appearance in the category it will actually be eligible for.   I suspect it gets a nomination here and bumps "Wild" or "Sniper".



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) (4)
4) Nightcrawler (6)
5) Selma (5) (9)

6) Foxcatcher (7) (3)
7) Mr. Turner (8) (5)
8) A Most Violent Year (9) (7)
9) The LEGO Movie (10)
10) Wild Tales (11)

Comment:  "Whiplash's" departure from this category opens a chance for "Foxcatcher" to hop back in.


ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The LEGO Movie
2) How to Train a Your Dragon 2
3) Big Hero 6
4) The Boxtrolls
5) The Story of Princess Kaguya

6) The Book of Life
7) The Song of the Sea
8) Rio 2
9) Cheatin'
10) The Penguins of Madagascar

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE



1)  Citizenfour
2) Life Itself
3) Keep On Keepin' On
4) The Last Days of Vietnam
5) The Overnighters

6) The Case Against 8
7) Virunga
8) Finding Vivan Maier
9) Tales of the Grim Sleeper
10) Salt of the Earth


Foreign Language Film



1) Ida (TFF #40)
2) Wild Tales 
3) Force Majeure
4) Leviathan
5) Timbuktu

6) Tangerines
7) The Liberator
8) Accused
9) Corn Island


CINEMATOGRAPHY



1) Birdman
2) Mr. Turner
3) Unbroken
4) Interstellar
5) The Theory of Everything

6) Selma
7) The Grand Budapest Hotel
8) Gone Girl
9) A Most Violent Year
10) Into the Woods


COSTUMES



1) Into the Woods
2) Mr. Turner
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Malificent
5) Selma

6) Big Eyes
7) The Imitation Game
8) The Theory of Everything
9) Exodus; Gods and Kings
10) Inherent Vice


FILM EDITING



1) Boyhood
2) Birdman
3) The Imitation Game
4) Whiplash
5) Gone Girl

6) Selma
7) Unbroken
8) Foxcatcher
9) Interstellar
10) American Sniper


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR



1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher

4) Malificent
5) The Theory of Everything
6) Noah
7) The Amazing Spiderman 2


ORIGINAL SCORE



1) The Theory of Everything
2) The Imitation Game
3) Interstellar
4) Gone Girl
5) Unbroken

6) The Grand Budapest Hotel
7) The Judge
8) The Homesman
9) How to Train Your Dragon 2
10) Fury


ORIGINAL SONG


1) Glory/Selma
2) Lost Stars/Begin Again
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Mercy is/Noah
5) Big Eyes/ Big Eyes

6) Miracle/Unbroken
7) Yellow Flicker Beat/Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part One
8) I'm not Gonna Miss You/Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
9) Split the Difference/Boyhood
10) Opportunity/Annie


PRODUCTION DESIGN



1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Birdman
5) The Imitation Game

6) Interstellar
7) Malificent
8) Unbroken
9) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
10) Snowpiercer


SOUND EDITING



1) Interstellar
2) Fury
3) Unbroken
4) Godzilla
5) Birdman

6) American Sniper
7) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
8) Guardians of the Galaxy
9) Transformers 4
10) Into the Woods


SOUND MIXING

1) Into the Woods
2) Unbroken
3) Transformers 4
4) Interstellar
5) Get On Up

6) Fury
7) American Sniper
8) Whiplash
9) Guardians of the Galaxy
10) The Hobbit; The Battle of the Five Armies

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5) Godzilla

6) Transformers 4
7) X-Men: Days of Future Past
8) Malificent
9) Captain America; The Winter Soldier
10) Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb


NOTE: There appears, in the late going, to be a surge in "American Sniper's" direction.  A lot of pundits now think it's a likely Best Picture nomination and potentially more.  Don't be surprised if it pops up Thursday morning.  "Sniper"  could see as many as seven nominations.  


TELLURIDE #41 OSCAR BREAKDOWN



If The FAC was 100% accurate (and it's NOT...remember, past experience has shown The FAC to be 75-80% accurate on Oscar nomination morning with about 80% of the "misses' coming from the #6 spot in each category...except for Best Picture, of course)...

Anyway, if The FAC is 100% accurate, here's what would be the breakdown:

Telluride #41 Films would have 28 nominations ("Ida" in foreign film would go back to add to the TFF #40 total...which sits at 34 as a result) with another 12 possibilities.

They'd be spread as such:

"Birdman" Ten nominations (the most of any film and likely the only film with double digit nominations): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design and Sound Editing.  

"The Imitation Game" Eight nominations (the second largest number of nominations of any film):  Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design.  It could also be nominated for Best Costumes.

"Mr. Turner" Three nominations: Cinematography, Costumes and Production Design.  "Turner" could also get into the act with nominations for Best Actor and Original Screenplay.

"Foxcatcher" Two nominations: Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair.  "Foxcatcher" has one of the larger "possibility" profiles of any film with "maybes" for Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

"Wild": Two nominations: Actress and Original Screenplay.  Also a "maybe" for: Supporting Actress.

Foreign Films : "Wild Tales" and "Leviathan" with the aforementioned TFF #40 title, "Ida", a likely nominee.

Documentary Feature:  "Keep on Keepin' On" looks like a a nominees with "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "Salt of the Earth" as also possibles.  You can semi-add "Life Itself" as it screened in Telluride the night before the festival opened in Elks Park.

Two other TFF titles have possible Oscar nominations.  "The Homesman" is still in the mix for Best Actress and Best Original Score and "Two Days, One Night" could also see a Best Actress nomination for Marion Cotillard.

Non-Telluride films are led by "Boyhood", "Selma", "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" all with six probable nominations.

Expected to get five noms are: "Unbroken", "Interstellar" and "Gone Girl"

Four noms to" "Whiplash" and "Into the Woods"

Two nominations for: "The LEGO Movie", "How to Train Your Dragon 2", "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Godzilla"


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I've linked someof final Oscar predictions from experts.  I'll update this list throughout the day so check back...

Peter Knegt of IndieWire:

 http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150113


Tomris Laffly of Popcorn Business:




Kris Tapley and Greg Ellwood at HitFix/InContention:

 http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-predictions-for-the-2015-oscar-nominations


Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/final-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150114

Jenelle Reilly/Variety:

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/oscar-nomination-predictions-2015-1201405074/

Steve Pond/The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nomination-predictions-can-jennifer-aniston-and-jake-gyllenhaal-find-a-way-in/

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silcon:

 http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions/


Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

 http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/nominees/oscars/2015/oscars1142015
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

 http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/awardsdailys-final-oscar-predictions/
at

No comments:

Post a Comment