Here we have the newest number crunching for the four major Oscar categories. The first FAC posting for the categories of Best Picture, Director, Actor and Actress was Sept. 28th.
As I have done in the past, I collate the publicly posted predictions of some of best Oscar experts in the business and then crunch the numbers to come up with The FAC consensus. This year we begin with information from:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
TFF #42 films are in Bold. The position of each film/performer from the 9/28 post is in parenthesis;
BEST PICTURE
1) Spotlight (1)
2) Steve Jobs (3)
3) The Revenant (1)
4) Brooklyn (7)
5) Room (10)
6) Bridge of Spies (5)
7) Joy (8)
8) The Danish Girl (4)
9) The Hateful Eight (9)
10) Carol (6)
11) Inside Out (12)
12) The Martian (11)
Hot: "Brooklyn" and "Room"
Cold: "The Danish Girl" and "Carol"
Comment: The top 12 remain the same with some significant re-shuffling. As of this morning's post, "Spotlight" has a solid grasp ion the top spot. "Steve Jobs" and "The Revenant" are solid as well. After that, it begins to get tighter and sketchier.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (2)
4) David O. Russell/Joy (6)
5) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (5)
6) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (7)
7) Ridley Scott/The Martian (NR)
8) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)
9) Tom Hooper /The Danish Girl (10)
10) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road (NR)
Hot: Russell and Scott.
Cold: Haynes and Nemes
Comment: Though "The Martian" hasn't gained any ground in as far as a Best Picture nomination over the last three weeks, the strong emergence of Ridley Scott in the director's race may signal that it has some underlying strength.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Brie Larson/Room (2)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (1)
3) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (5)
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
5) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (3)
6) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (6)
7) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (9)
8) Cate Blanchett/Truth (7)
9) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (10)
10) Blythe Danner/I'll See You in My Dreams (NR)
Hot: Ronan and Tomlin
Cold: Mulligan
Comment: Alicia Vikander drops off this chart as she will apparently be campaigned in the Best Supporting Actress category for her work in "The Danish Girl"
BEST ACTOR
1) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (3)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (2)
3) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
5) Michael Caine/Youth (5)
6) Matt Damon/The Martian (6)
7) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies (7)
8) Will Smith/Concussion (9)
9) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (NR)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)
Hot: Fassbender and McKellen
Cold: DiCaprio and Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) who dropped to the 11th spot in the latest FAC.
The current status would have TFF #42 films snagging 10 nominations in these four major categories and also have possibilities for three others.
Coming on Monday, I'll take a new look at the Supporting categories and the Screenplays as well.
DIRECTORS: BOYLE, FUKUNAGA, HAYNES
Recent conversations included here from Danny Boyle ("Steve Jobs"), Cary Fukunaga ("Beasts of No Nation"), and Todd Haynes ("Carol").
Danny Boyle from Interview Magazine:
http://www.interviewmagazine.com/film/steve-jobs-danny-boyle#_
Cary Fukunaga from The New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/movies/cary-joji-fukunaga-on-the-perils-of-making-beasts-of-no-nation.html
and also with FirstShowing.net:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/interview-filmmaker-cary-fukunaga-on-making-beasts-of-no-nation/
and from Indiewire:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/cary-fukunaga-explains-why-he-knew-he-needed-to-cast-a-non-actor-in-beasts-of-no-nation-20151015
Todd Haynes from Thompson on Hollywood:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/todd-haynes-talks-carol-love-stories-and-making-radically-queer-movies-20151019
NEW VIEWS FROM "SUFFRAGETTE"
From The Playlist comes this post with extensive clips, pictures and interviews from Sarah Gavron's "Suffragette".
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-new-clips-interview-features-and-images-from-suffragette-starring-carey-mulligan-20151016
More on Monday including the next edition of The Film Awards Clearinghouse focused on Supporting and Screenplay categories.
Contact me at:
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mpgort@gmail.com OR
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