THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89
We are just days away from the Oscars -on Sunday night on ABC- and here are the (probably) final predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse. Barring some weird movement or unforeseen circumstance, this will be the last post from MTFB/FAC until Monday's regularly scheduled post. In that, I'll do some semblance of analysis based on the results of Sunday's ceremony.
Today's predictions include updated data for the eight categories that have seemed to have been the most contentious over the past few weeks since nominations were announced: Actor, Original Screenplay,Sound Editing, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and the three Short Form categories: Live Action, Animated and Documentary. I also did a quick update on Best Picture.
On Oscar night itself, I'll be semi-live-tweeting. Also probably a good deal of re-tweeting. Check out my Twitter account @Gort2.
As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold. Categories that were deemed "Toss Ups" are indicated with ***
***LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: Enemies Interiors
Upset: Timecode
Comment: Since last week, a big surge for Ennemis Interieurs puts it on top, marginally over Timecode.
***DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner; Joe's Violin
Upset: The White Helmets
Comment: Last week's two leaders switch places but the metric still makes this a squeaky tight race.
***ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Piper
Upset: Pearl
Comment: Piper's lead has increased substantially over the past week. Still not a lock by any means.
SOUND MIXING:
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Hacksaw Ridge
***SOUND EDITING
Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Upset: La La Land
VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner; The Jungle Book
Upset: Rogue One
***MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Upset: A Man Called Ove
***COSTUMES
Winner: Jackie
Upset: La La Land
Comment: Jackie has opened up a slight, but real, lead in this category. La La Land could still sneak a win here, however.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival or Fantastic Beasts
ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: City of Stars/La La Land
Upset: Could come from Moana or Trolls
ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight or Lion
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: The Salesman
Upset: Toni Erdmann
ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: Zootopia
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: OJ: Made in America
Upset: 13th or I Am Not Your Negro
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Lion
FILM EDITING
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival
***ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Upset: La La Land
Comment: Manchester has moved into a more secure position in the last week.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Moonlight
Upset: Arrival
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Upset: Dev Patel/Lion
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Viola Davis/Fences
Upset: Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
***ACTOR
Winner: Denzel Washington/Fences
Upset: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Comment: Still a whisker thin margin for Washington.
ACTRESS
Winner: Emma Stone/La La Land
Upset: Isabelle Huppert/Elle
DIRECTOR
Winner: Damien Chazelle / La La Land
Upset: Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
BEST PICTURE
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight
Comment: Other possible upset players: Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea and Lion
Expected win totals:
La La Land 9
Moonlight 2
Fences 2
No other film with more than a single win.
TFF #43 films with 13 wins.
A last thought. I'm feeling a bit of an intuition that La La Land might actually upset in both Original Screenplay and Costumes.
FINAL OSCAR CALLS FROM THE EXPERTS (UPDATED)
Here the FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS from various experts. I WILL BE UPDATING this section through Sunday:
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Clayton Davis (and Friends)/Awards Circuit
Awards Daily
Film School Rejects
Awards Watch Podcast
Gold Derby
Metacritic
Movie City News Gurus of Gold
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Indiewire Critics Survey
Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience
Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans
LATE BREAKING: TORONTO TO DOWNSIZE
There are multiple reports that the Torotno International Film Festival is going to shrink its feature film lineup by about 20% or from approximately 300 films down to 240ish.
Here's that story from:
The Hollywood Reporter
Indiewire
The Playlist
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)
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