First Oscar Predictions for 2018 / Continued Oscar Insight / Focus on The Other Side / Border Makes Some Noise

Good Monday everyone... I've got a full edition of MTFB today.



FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2018

First up today is my first Oscar predictions for 2018.  As regular readers know, I shift gears after each year's SHOW is completed (as well as Venice and Toronto) and, until Oscar night, the focus of this space becomes focused on the awards twists and turns that TFF films are a part of.

Consequently, I also endeavor to provide predictions about the Oscar race including my own set of prognostications.  Over the next few months I'll also pay attention to some of the larger critic's top ten and  "best of" lists as well as many of the film guild awards.  All of which lead up to Oscar nomination announcement morning (Jan. 22) and the 91st Oscars ceremony on Feb. 24.

Additionally, this year, as I reported a few days back, this year my predictions will also be included as part of The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News. 

It's an exciting time.

So here you are.  My first set of predix for the four most major of major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.


BEST PICTURE

1) First Man
2) A Star Is Born
3) Roma
4) Green Book
5) The Favourite
6) BlacKkKlansman
7) If Beale Street Could Talk
8) Black Panther
9) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
10) Boy Erased

Others: Eighth Grade, Widows, The Front Runner, Vice

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Damien Chazelle/First Man
4) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite

Others: Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Peter Farrelly/Green Book, Steve McQueen/Widows, Adam McKay/Vice

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
3) Melissa McCarthy/ Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
5) Julia Roberts/Ben Is Back

Others: Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Viola Davis/Widows, Toni Collette/Heredity

BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
2) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
3) Ryan Gosling/First Man
4) Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased
5) Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate

Others: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Christian Bale/Vice, Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner, Ethan Hawke/First Reformed


TFF #45 Breakdown if these predictions were 100% accurate (I'm picking nine nominees for Best Picture):

First Man (3): Best Picture, Direction, Actor
The Favourite (3): Best Picture, Direction, Actress
Roma (2) Best Picture, Direction
Can You ever Forgive Me? (2): Best Picture, Actress
Boy Erased (1) Best Actor

Additional Possibilities:

The Front Runner (2): Best Picture, Actor
Boy Erased (1): Best Picture
Roma (1): Best Actress
Destroyer (1): Best Actress

And from TFF #44...

First Reformed (1): Best Actor


CONTINUED OSCAR INSIGHT

Both Sasha Stone at Awards Daily and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch post updates for the Oscar season each Friday.  Sasha's is titled Predictions Friday while Erik's is Frontrunner Friday.  Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit updates weekly on Mondays. I'll try to make sure to provide those links each week.  I'll also be adding Scott Feinberg's Feinberg Forecast (The Hollywood Reporter) , Kristopher Tapley (Variety) and others as the season really gets rolling.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit


FOCUS ON THE OTHER SIDE

I saw two big pieces appear this weekend that delved into the back story of the efforts to finish Orson Welles final film The Other Side of the Wind. Both Chris O'Falt for Indiewire and Alex Ross for The New Yorker put up extensive stories about how the film was rescued and finished.

I have linked both of them.

Indiewire

The New Yorker


BORDER MAKES SOME NOISE

Ali Abbasi's TFF #45 selection and Cannes'  Un Certain Regard winner Border made a splash this weekend as it was named winner of the World Fiction prize at The Los Angeles Film Festival as well as having a U.S. trailer release.

The film was one of the more divisive offerings at this year's SHOW as evidenced by the disparate reactions from my collection of ratings from both the attendees of the fest, who had it at the #16 spot in their ratings and the Professionals for whom it ended up at their #8 spot.

Here's the U.S. trailer from YouTube:

Also linked here is coverage of the trailer release from The Film Stage and The Playlist.

Additionally, here's the coverage of the awards announcement from the L.A. Film Fest from The Los Angeles Times.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.


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