OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS
Total nominations for TFF #45 films-34 which exceeds the average of 27-28 since I started tracking TFF Oscar nominations.
Plus one from TFF #44...the Original Screenplay nomination for Paul Schrader for First Reformed.
For the record I finished the morning at 78% accuracy...which is right at my normal average.
For Best Pic I was 8 of 8 (because I had 10 picked).
Other perfect categories for me this year: Best Actress, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Production Design. My worst category this year-Film Editing where I was a measly 2 of 5. Overall I was 95/122 for the 78%. In eight categories the film I had pegged as the #6 film ended up in the nominees...so, you know, close.
Biggest shockers to me...
No Bradley Cooper for Directing A Star Is Born.
No Won't You Be My Neighbor for Documentary.
No Score nomination for First Man.
Marina de Tavira getting in Supporting Actress for Roma.
The love for Buster Scruggs which I'm not sure anyone saw coming.
No Film Editing noms for Roma, Star or First Man
A couple of added points here that I didn't touch on Tuesday's special post...
The max number of total Oscars that TFF films could win is 18 as there are at least one TFF film nominated in 18 of the 24 categories. Six categories have no TFF film nominated at all and thus cannot produce a TFF winner. They are Best Actor, Animated Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Animated Short and Documentary Short.
Of course, that total is unlikely. Below I have linked to some of the early predictions about possible winners in each category and what that suggests might be the total trophy take on Oscar night, Feb. 24th.
EXPERTS PREDICT OSCAR WINNERS
I have linked here the early Oscar winner predictions from experts with their view of which TFF films win what Oscars on Feb. 24th
Scott's predicted TFF winners include:
Roma (4): Best Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography
First Man (1): Visual Effects
For a total of five wins. Scott foresees The Favourite not winning from any of its field leading (tied with Roma) 10 nominations.
Sasha's home page right hand column seems to point the way to here early Oscar thinking and it has the following stabs at TFF winners:
Roma (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film
First Reformed (TFF #44-1) Original Screenplay
First Man (2): Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Total of six wins.
Roma (4): Best Picture (odds are tied with A Star Is Born), Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film
The Favourite (3): Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design
First Man (1): Sound Editing
Total of eight wins.
FILM FEST SPEC FROM SCREEN DAILY
Renee Zellweger in Judy via IMDb
I have been tracking a series of articles from Screen Daily that they have labeled "Films to Tempt Festival Directors" in an attempt to get an early line on some titles that might be on the TFF #46 lineup.
The latest installment focuses on films from the UK and Ireland. It's a list of 13 films and among them, these are the titles that standout to me as potential players at Telluride:
Untitled Girls Film directed by Sarah Gavron
Greed directed by Michael Winterbottom
Judy directed by Rupert Goold
Radioactive directed by Marjane Satrapi
Sorry We Missed You directed by Ken Loach
That's your MTFB for this Thursday. I'll have more on Monday. Have a great weekend.
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