The Telluride Effect Part One / Berlin Film Fest Closes / Ken Burns' Country / Spotlight on Free Solo

Hope everyone had a pleasant weekend and is having a great President's Day.

THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART ONE

Oscar night for 2019 is now just days away.  Final Oscar predictions from every source imaginable will be coming at you fast and furious over the next six days including in this space in Thursday's blog post.   

Some of the experts may mention "The Telluride Effect".  For those of you who are frequent readers here, the expression likely doesn't need any explanation.  For those that may not have bumped up against the term, here's an definition of sorts...The Telluride Effect suggests that for a film to win Best Picture at the Oscars it will have had to play at the Telluride Film Festival.  It does not mean the film has had to premiere at Telluride, only that it screens as a part of the festival's lineup.

The term (I think Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is actually the person who coined it) has emerged over the last decade-plus as, with one exception when The Hurt Locker won as 2009's Best Picture.

Here's the lowdown for those years:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire (premiered at Telluride)

2009: The Hurt Locker (no T-ride play)

2010: The King's Speech (premiered at Telluride)

2011: The Artist (premiered at Cannes then played Telluride)

2012: Argo (premiered at Telluride)

2013: 12 Years a Slave (premiered at Telluride)

2014: Birdman (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2015: Spotlight (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2016: Moonlight (premieres at Telluride)

2017: The Shape of Water (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

So there it is.  Nine of the last ten Best Picture winners and the last eight in a row have played Telluride and, as you can see, the most common route is to either premiere at Telluride originally or, of late, do the Venice to T-ride.  Only in the case of The Artist in the last decade has a film run through Cannes/Telluride to a Best Picture win.

This year, among the eight films nominated for Best Picture, the Telluride Effect's continuation depends on either Alfonso Cuaron's Roma or Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  If you read most Oscar experts you'll have seen that many feel Roma will win Sunday night.  I can't think of any that think The Favourite will be the big winner.  

Roma's chances appear to be reasonable.  I'd say something better than 50/50 but certainly not a lock.  Many prognosticators think Peter Farrelly's Green Book could win Sunday night.  Other, more distant possibilities might be BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther but most think it's down to Roma and Green Book.

I'll be on record on Thursday...but...hint, hint...I'm probably going to stick with the notion that The Telluride Effect continues to hold sway.

So...if it really exists, why?  You might ask.  I have a few ideas:

1) Reputation.  The fest has this string because they consistently program great film.  I think that attendees and peeps from the business pay attention to what Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and crew secure to screen over Labor Day.

2) Demographics:  The fest, it seems to me, has a clientele that, at some level, mirrors the Academy.  That's probably changing some over the past few years as the Academy has made a strong effort to expand size and diversity.

3) And speaking of the Academy...TFF and AMPAS have had a significant relationship for a while and a good chunk of the attendees each year are members of the Academy.

4) Timing:  Telluride is in a sweet, sweet spot on the calendar.  Situated at the beginning of September and between Venice and Toronto is great positioning in terms of  setting the table for the fall films that will likely dominate the Oscar conversation.

5) The media has noticed.  There has always been a media presence since I started going to Telluride (since 2006) but over the last decade that seems to have increased dramatically.  As Telluride has, at the very least coincidentally, become a harbinger for what could occur during Oscar season, the press contingent seems to have become larger making for a more dramatic Telluride impact on the awards season.  At least it feels that way to me.

There are probably other reasons but these are the five that come to mind.  I know that Sasha Stone also has frequently suggested that the AMPAS choice a few years back to move the Oscars to earlier in the year has magnified the effect of fall film fests including Telluride.

Does it happen again this year?  For a big chunk of this Oscar season, I didn't think it would but as I said above, I think it's now more likely than not but it sure isn't a lock.  

I'll have more about The Telluride Effect in Thursday's post...

BERLIN FILM FEST CLOSES

The Berlin Film Festival concluded this week with the naming of Nadiv Lapid's Synonyms as the recipient of the Golden Bear, the fests more important prize.  Also winning awards: By the Grace of God, System Crasher, I Was at Home...But, and So Long My Son.

As I have written here, it isn't uncommon for Telluride to program a couple of films that premiere at Berlin.  Last year, for example, Dovlatov played Berlin first.  In 2017, A Fantastic Woman, The Other Side of Hope and Hostages all played the German fest prior to Telluride bows.

With its Silver Bear win, Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God may have moved to the front of the line for Berlin titles that could make the TFF #46 lineup.  A couple of other titles that I thought we should keep an eye lost some of their luster in that regard owing to mediocre/tepid critical response.  I'm referring to Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers and Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones.

I have linked stories about Berlin;s awards here from

Screen International

Variety

Deadline

And critical roundups for the Berlin films are linked here from:

Metacritic

Reini Urban's Compilation


KEN BURNS' COUNTRY

I wrote a couple of weeks back about Ken Burns' upcoming PBS multi-part documentary about American Country/Western music and the possibility some of that might screen at Telluride prior to its bow on PBS in September.

PBS posted a 60 second teaser for the doc featuring Marty Stuart talking about the Grand Ole Opry and its place in Nashville and Country music history.  Here it is thanks to the magic of YouTube:

SPOTLIGHT ON FREE SOLO

I have had RBG at the top of my list to win the Best Documentary Oscar on Sunday night since the nominations were announced but the last week or so, there seems to be a real undercurrent in favor of Free Solo which, of course, played Telluride last Labor Day.  Honestly, between now and Thursday when I put up my final Oscar predictions, I may switch to Free Solo to win.

No less a light than Indiewire's Anne Thompson makes a compelling case for that possibility in the story she put up on Friday.  It's not really the focus of Anne's story but shows up in it.

You can see what Anne and what the film makers and climbers had to say to Anne as well by clicking here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have a Part Two about The Telluride Effect on Thursday in addition to my final Oscar picks for Sunday night's extravaganza.

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