MORE ABOUT TORONTO
As a reminder...here's what we think we learned from Tuesday's Toronto announcement:
It looks as if theses films are likely headed to Telluride:
Ford vs. Ferrari
Judy
Marriage Story
Motherless Brooklyn
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
NOT playing Telluride:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bad Education
Dolemite Is My Name
Greed
Harriet
Jojo Rabbit
Just Mercy
Knives Out
Radioactive
The Goldfinch
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Ema
Joker
The Laundromat
The Lighthouse
Here's last week's Ten Bets:
10) Country Music/Ryman Concert
9) The Truth
8) Judy
7) Motherless Brooklyn
6) Marriage Story (Previously Untitled Baumbach)
5) Portrait of a Lady on FIre
4) The Climb
3) Parasite
2) Family Romance LLC
1) Varda by Agnes
From these Ten Bets...five seem confirmed for TFF based on the TIFF announcement: Parasite, Portrait of a Woman on Fire, Judy, Motherless Brooklyn and Marriage Story. All of the other five films on last week's Ten Bets are still in play.
Films that were among the "Other Possibilities" that got nuked: Jojo Rabbit, The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Laundromat, Radioactive, The Lighthouse, Harriet and The Personal History of David Copperfield.
Here, via Awards Daily, is the complete set of films Toronto announced on Tuesday:
The 44th Toronto International Film Festival runs September 5–15, 2019.
GALAS 2019
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Marielle Heller | USA World Premiere
Abominable Jill Culton | USA World Premiere
American Woman Semi Chellas | Canada Canadian Premiere
Blackbird Roger Michell | United Kingdom World Premiere
Clemency Chinonye Chukwu | USA International Premiere
Ford v Ferrari James Mangold | USA Canadian Premiere
The Goldfinch John Crowley | USA World Premiere
Harriet Kasi Lemmons | USA World Premiere
Hustlers Lorene Scafaria | USA World Premiere
Joker Todd Phillips | USA North American Premiere
Just Mercy Destin Daniel Cretton | USA World Premiere
*Opening Night Film*
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and The Band Daniel Roher | Canada World Premiere
Ordinary Love Lisa Barros D’Sa, Glenn Leyburn | United Kingdom World Premiere
*Closing Night Film*
Radioactive Marjane Satrapi | United Kingdom World Premiere
The Sky Is Pink Shonali Bose | India World Premiere
The Song of Names François Girard | Canada World Premiere
True History of the Kelly Gang Justin Kurzel | Australia World Premiere
Western Stars Thom Zimny, Bruce Springsteen | USA World Premiere
SPECIAL PRESENTATIONS 2019
A Herdade Tiago Guedes | Portugal North American Premiere
Bad Education Cory Finley | USA World Premiere
Coming Home Again Wayne Wang | USA/South Korea World Premiere
Dolemite Is My Name Craig Brewer | USA World Premiere
Ema Pablo Larraín | Chile North American Premiere
Endings, Beginnings Drake Doremus | USA World Premiere
Frankie Ira Sachs | France/Portugal North American Premiere
The Friend Gabriela Cowperthwaite | USA World Premiere
Greed Michael Winterbottom | United Kingdom World Premiere
Guest of Honour Atom Egoyan | Canada North American Premiere
Heroic Losers (La odisea de los giles) Sebastian Borensztein | Argentina/Spain International Premiere
Honey Boy Alma Har’el | USAInternational Premiere
Hope Gap William Nicholson | United Kingdom World Premiere
How to Build a Girl Coky Giedroyc | United Kingdom World Premiere
*Opening Special Presentations Film*I Am Woman Unjoo Moon | Australia World Premiere
Jojo Rabbit Taika Waititi | USA World Premiere
Judy Rupert Goold | United Kingdom Canadian Premiere
Knives Out Rian Johnson | USA World Premiere
La Belle Époque Nicolas Bedos | France North American Premiere
The Laundromat Steven Soderbergh | USA North American Premiere
The Lighthouse Robert Eggers | USA North American Premiere
Marriage Story Noah Baumbach | USA Canadian Premiere
Military Wives Peter Cattaneo | United Kingdom World Premiere
Motherless Brooklyn Edward Norton | USA International Premiere
No.7 Cherry Lane Yonfan | Hong Kong North American Premiere
The Other Lamb Malgorzata Szumowska | Belgium/Ireland/USA World Premiere
Pain and Glory Pedro Almodóvar | Spain Canadian Premiere
The Painted Bird Václav Marhoul | Czech Republic/Ukraine/Slovakia North American Premiere
Parasite (Gisaengchung) Bong Joon-ho | South Korea Canadian Premiere
Pelican Blood (Pelikanblut) Katrin Gebbe | Germany/Bulgaria North American Premiere
The Personal History of David Copperfield Armando Iannucci | United Kingdom World Premiere
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Portrait de la jeune fille en feu) Céline Sciamma | France Canadian Premiere
The Report Scott Z. Burns | USA International Premiere
Saturday Fiction (Lan Xin Da Ju Yuan) Lou Ye | China North American Premiere
The Two Popes Fernando Meirelles | USA/United Kingdom/Italy/Argentina Canadian Premiere
Uncut Gems Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie | USA International Premiere
Weathering With You Makoto Shinkai | Japan North American Premiere
While at War (Mientras Dure La Guerra) Alejandro Amenábar | Spain/Argentina World Premiere
Other fest announcements that we're waiting for that could be revealing will come from the rest of the Toronto field, the Venice schedule and London, New York and Fantastic Fest.
VENICE CHOICES
Here's the lineup announcement from Venice this morning from Indieiwre:
“The Perfect Candidate,” Haifaa Al-Mansour
“About Endlessness,” Roy Andersson
“Wasp Network,” Olivier Assayas
“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach
“Guest of Honor, Atom Egoyan
“Ad Astra,” James Gray
“A Herdade,” Tiago Guedes
“Gloria Mundi,” Robert Guediguian
“Waiting for the Barbarians,” Cio Guerra
“Ema,” Pablo Larrain
“Saturday Fiction,” Lou Ye
“Martin Eden,” Pietro Marcello
“The Mafia Is No Longer What It Used to Be,” Franco Maresco
“The Painted Bird,” Vaclav Marhoul
“The Mayor of the Rione Sanità,” Mario Martone
“Babyteeth,” Shannon Murphy
“Joker,” Todd Phillips
“An Officer and a Spy,” Roman Polanski
“The Laundromat,” Steven Soderbergh
“No. 7 Cherry Lane,” Yonfan
Special Event
“Goodbye, Dragon Inn,” Tsai Ming-Liang
Out of Competition – Fiction
“Seberg,” Benedict Andrews
“Vivere,” Francesca Archibugi
“Mosul,” Matthew Michael Carnahan
“Adults in the Room,” Costa-Gavras
“The King,” David Michod
“Tutto Il Mio Folle Amore,” Gabriele Salvatore
As always, much about what is slated for Venice is in play to make the trip across the ocean and it all depends on scheduling. So while we can't definitely say at this point which of the above films will play TFF #46...some of them will. When Venice announces its schedule, then we may be able to make some educated guesses about additions to TFF.
That said, you still have to be excited about the possibility that these films might make the leap:
Ad Astra, Marriage Story, Wasp Network, Seberg, The King and opening night film The Truth. Possibly others. The complete Indiewire rundown and all categories of selections for Venice are linked here.
TELLURIDE AND OSCAR: THE EXIT INTERVIEW
So my pieces that have focused on the Telluride Film Festival and its relationship with The Academy Awards comes to a conclusion today with a few observations.
First- Yes, the relationship pre-dates my start date of 2005. As a matter of fact, in 2004 TFF featured Best Picture nominee Finding Neverland ( Seven total nominations with a win for original score and an acting nomination for Johnny Depp). Kinsey had a nomination for Laura Linney's performance (she was also a tribute recipient that year).
I started with 2005 because it was a year before I began attending the festival and wanted to have at least a year outside my experience included in the analysis. Also, with it being the year of Brokeback Mountain and Capote, I knew it would have a substantial presence in the eight "major" Oscar categories.
Second- The totals surprised even me a little bit. Over the 14 year period from 2005-2018 there were 185 Oscar nominations in the "Big Eight" categories for films that played at Telluride. That's out of a total of 599 possible nominations meaning the T-ride films accounted for 30.9% of all nominees in the categories. For a film fest that only schedules (usually) 25ish feature films each year over a mere four days...yeesh! It's unbelievable.
Third- Breakdown by year. Here's how many "Big Eight" nominations have occurred from Telluride films in each year of this analysis:
2005-13
2006-11
2007-14
2008-9
2010-14
2011-12
2012-7
2013-14
2014-18
2015-15
2016-19
2017-13
2018-15
2016 is the apex with its 19 nominations...that's the year of Moonlight, La La Land, Arrival and Manchester by the Sea.
2012 was the low point with a meager seven nominations in the chosen categories...the year of Argo and Amour.
Over the 14 year study period TFF films have averaged 13.2 nominations per year. However, looking at the last five years, that average is 16 per year indicating an intensification of the connection between Telluride and Oscar
Fourth-Breakdown by category-nominations:
Picture- 32 That's the largest raw number of nominees for any category but keep in mind that's 32 of a possible 109 slots. By percentage, that's 29.4% of the category's nominees for the last 14 years. That 29.4% puts Best Picture below a number of the other categories.
Director-31 (44.2%-way in front, percentage-wise, of all the categories)
Supporting Actress-26 (37.1%- far and away the acting category with the largest number of TFF nominees. The irony here is that it's also the category with the least wins-1)
Actress and Actor-22 (31.4%-nice to see the two major acting categories balanced)
Adapted and Original Screenplay-19 (27.1%-also a surprising balance)
Supporting Actor 14 (20%)
Fifth-Breakdown by category-win percentage. What is the average chances that a nominee from a TFF film will win in a category based on the data from these last 14 years?
1) Director-10 wins from 31 nominations-32.2%
2) Adapted Screenplay-7 wins from 19 nominations-36.8%
3) Actor-7 wins from 22 nominations-31.8%
4) Picture- 9 wins from 32 nominations-28.1%
5) Original Screenplay-5 wins from 19 nominations-26.3%
6) Actress- 5 wins from 22 nominations-22.7%
7) Supporting Actor- 1 win from 14 nominations-7.1%
8) Supporting Actress-1 win from 26 nominations-3.8%
Overall- Telluride films have 45 wins out of a possible 112 for the last 14 years in these eight categories accounting for a stunning 40.2% of all victories.
Last- Much like the 2017-18 Program Project. I'm planning to put all of this together as a separate History tab on this site...someday.
That's today's MTFB. Tomorrow...a new Ten Bets!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
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