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Sunday, January 12, 2020

SUNDAY SPECIAL: THE FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS / Final Oscar Predix from the Experts

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS




First a note or two…
If past history holds, these nomination predictions will be between 75%-80% accurate.  Additionally, of that 20%-25% missed, around 20% of those misses will pop up as the #6 possibility in categories that have five nominations.  Then again, as crazy as this Oscar season has been so far… all bets are off.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

With that, here are the final MTFB Oscar nomination predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2) Parasite
3) 1917
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Ford v Ferrari 
9) Little Women
10) Knives Out

Other possibles: The Farewell, Rocketman, Uncut Gems
Notes: The top seven films feel solid.  I'm guessing nine films get nominated this year.  Here’s a thing, though…It feels like there’s a Little Women movement going on…that could get Gerwig, Ronan and Pugh in as well as the film for Best Pic.


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite 
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
4) Sam Mendes/1917
5) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
6) Todd Phillips/Joker

Other possibles: Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
Locks: Tarantino, Bong, Scorsese, Mendes


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy 
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story 
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Lupita Nyong'o/Us
6) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency
Locks: Zellweger, Johansson, Theron. 


BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...
4) Taron Egerton/Rocketman
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
6) Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
Locks: Driver, Phoenix, DiCaprio


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story 
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
5) Florence Pugh/Little Women
6) Nicole Kidman/Bombshell

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Annette Bening/The Report
Locks: Dern, Lopez. Robbie


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Al Pacino/The Irishman
4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5) Song Kang-ho/Parasite
6) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Other possibles: Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy, Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
Locks: Pitt, Pesci, Pacino.  Near Lock: Hanks


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Irishman
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Two Popes 
4) Little Women
5) Joker
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Other possibles: Just Mercy, Hustlers, Dark Waters
Locks: Irishman, Jojo, Two Popes.  Near Locks: Little Women, Joker


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Once Upon a Time…
2) Marriage Story
3) Parasite
4) Knives Out
5) 1917
6) The Farewell

Other possibles: Booksmart, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory
Locks: Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time..., Parasite. 


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Parasite 
2) Pain and Glory 
3) Les Miserables
4) Beanpole 
5) Atlantics
6) Corpus Christi

Other possibles: Honeyland, Truth and Justice, Those Who Remained, The Painted Bird


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) I Lost My Body
4) The Missing Link
5) How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
6) Klaus

Other possibles: Abominable, The Lion King, Funan

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) For Sama
4) One Child Nation
5) Honeyland
6) Biggest Little Farm

Other possibles: Midnight Family, Maiden, The Cave, Advocate

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Parasite 
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Marriage Story, 1917, Uncut Gems.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) Ford v Ferrari
6) The Lighthouse

Other possibles: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Little Women, A Hidden Life, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Little Women
4) Marriage Story 
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Motherless Brooklyn, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) Glasgow/Wild Rose
5) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
6) Spirit/The Lion King

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, Speechless/Aladdin, Daily Battles/Motherless Brooklyn, Letter to My Godfather/Black Godfather

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (2)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (3)
4) Downton Abbey (4)
5) Rocketman (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Judy (2)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (4)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Parasite (4)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6)

Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Lion King
2) The Irishman
3) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4) Avengers: Endgame
5) 1917
6) Alita: Battle Angel

Other possible: Gemini Man

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Avengers: Endgame

Other possibles: Rocketman, The Irishman, Toy Story 4

SOUND MIXING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Rocketman
6) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Other possibles: The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Kitbull
2) Hair Love
3) The Physics of Sorrow
4) Dcera (Daughter)
5) He Can't Live Without Cosmos
6) Mind My Mind

Others: Hors Piste, Memorable, Sister, Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days

DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) Fire in Paradise
3) St. Louis Superman
4) Walk Run Cha-Cha
5) In the Absence
6) After Maria

Others: Ghosts of Sugarland, Life Overtakes Me, he Nightcrawlers, Stay Close

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) Little Hands
2) Brotherhood
3) The Neighbors Window
4) Refugee
5) A Sister
6) Nefta Football Club

Others: The Christmas Gift, Miller and Son, Saria, Sometimes I Think About Dying

NOTES:

According to my picks the total nomination leader will be Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood with 12 followed by:

1917 and Joker-10
The Irishman-9
Parasite-7
Marriage Story and Little Women- 6
Ford v Ferrari-5

Telluride films will earn 25 nominations in total.  Another four could be possible.  In addition to Parasite, Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari...

Judy-2
Pain and Glory- 2
The Two Popes- 1
Beanpole- 1
Fire in Paradise-1






FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS:

Awards Daily

The Hollywood Reporter

Awards Watch Part 1 

Awards Watch Part 2

Hollywood News

Indiewire

Vanity Fair

Entertainment Weekly

Next Best Picture


FINAL NOTE: I'll have all the nominees up sometime tomorrow morning with the breakdown of how Telluride films actually did and maybe a comment or two along the way.  Tomorrow's post will be later in that day than the normal 8:00am EST/6:00am PST.  Hoping to have it up by 10:00am Eastern.

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