Oscar Update: Cinematography, Editing and the Music / The Oscar Inventory / Another Nomad / Latest Gurus: The Golden Globes

 OSCAR UPDATE: CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING AND THE MUSIC

Here are my updates predictions for these four categories.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (last predicted on Feb. 8th.  Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)

1) Nomadland (1)

2) Mank (2)

3) News of the World (3)

4) Tenet (4)

5) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

6) Judas and the Black Messiah (5)

7) Minari (7)

8) One Night in Miami (8)

9) First Cow (6)

10) Da 5 Bloods (10)

Other Possibles: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Midnight Sky

Hot: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Not: Da 5 Bloods

BEST FILM EDITING (last predicted on Feb. 8th.  Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) News of the World (4)

3) Nomadland (2)

4) Mank (3)

5) Tenet (3)

6) Sound of Metal (-)

7) The Father (6)

8) One Night in Miami (8)

9) Da 5 Bloods (7)

10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (10)

Other Possibles: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari

Hot: Sound of Metal, News of the World

Not: Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods

ORIGINAL SCORE (last predicted on Feb. 8th.  Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)

1) Soul (1)

2) News of the World (2)

3) Mank (4)

4) The Midnight Sky (3)

5) Tenet (5)

6) Minari (6)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

8) Da 5 Bloods (8)

9) The Little Things (10)

10) Blizzard of Souls (-)

Other Possibles: Ammonite, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Mulan, Jingle Jangle-A Christmas Journey

Hot: Blizzard of Souls

Not: Jingle Jangle

BEST ORIGINAL SONG (last predicted on Feb. 8th.  Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami (1)

2) Io Si (Seen)/The Life Ahead (2)

3) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah (8)

4) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)

5) Husavik/Eurovision (6)

6) Turntables/All In: The Fight for Democracy (-)

7) Never Break/Giving Voice (-)

8) Wuhan Flu/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (7)

9) See What You've Done/Belly of the Beast (-)

10) Rain Song/Minari (-)

Other Possibles: Green/Sound of Metal, Loyal Brave True/Mulan, Free/The One and Only Ivan, Show Me Your Soul/Mr. Soul, Make It Work/Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Hot: Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah, Turntables/All In:The Fight for Democracy

THE OSCAR INVENTORY

This is a look at the total predicted nominations that I have currently for the ten films MTFB has listed as Best Picture nominees as the announcement is just three weeks away (Mar. 15th).

Mank will lead all Best Picture nominees with a total of 13 predicted: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound, Score, Song.

Three films will have seven nominations:

The Trial of the Chicago 7: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom: Picture, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

News of the World: Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Score.

Nomadland will land six nominations: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinelatography, Editing.

Sound of Metal will have five nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Sound.

The four nomination club will include:

Minari: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

One Night in Miami: Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Song

Promising Young Woman: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay,

Judas and the Black Messiah will land three nominations, the least of the films I have predicted for Best Picture: Picture, Supporting Actor, Song.

Other films with notable numbers of nominations per my predictions:

Tenet with 5: Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound, Score.

The Father with 3: Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

The Midnight Sky with 3: Sound, Visual Effects, Score.

Best bets among the above films to add a nomination not currently predicted:

The Father: Picture, Editing

Minari: Steven Yeun/Best Actor, Score

Tenet: Production Design

News of the World: Adapted Screenplay

One Night in Miami: Regina King/Best Director

Judas and the Black Messiah: Cinematography

Sound of Metal: Editing

ANOTHER NOMAD

Bob Wells (via Vulture)

We've seen and heard a lot from Nomadland star (and producer) Frances McDormand and director/writer Chloe Zhao but Vulture this week posted an interview with Nomad lifestyle guru Bob Wells.  Wells is featured prominently in the film and stars as himself.

Wells  hosts the annual Rubber Tramp Rendezvous and is well known for producing videos on YouTube extolling the R.V. lifestyle.

Here's the link to that interview.

LATEST GURUS: THE GOLDEN GLOBES

The latest Gurus of Gold post is up this afternoon and focuses on a number of categories from the Golden Globes.  The Globes are set to be handed out on Sunday evening amidst a controversy over its membership and pay to said to members.

I'll be the first to admit that I am no expert when it comes to the capriciousness of the Globes and who is going to win on Sunday night.  Heck, I barely think I can talk semi-intellgently about the Oscar race that I spend a lot of time and attention on.

Nevertheless, Ray Pride from Movie City News asked us to opine on the Globes and I and most of the other Gurus obliged.  Check out our predictions by using this link.

My big picks: Nomadland, Borat, Zhao, Mulligan, Boseman, Bakalova, Cohen.

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Oscar Update: Best Picture, Director, Doc and International / BIFA Awards TFF Films / Nomadland-Where Are They Now? / The Latest from We Gurus

 OSACR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTOR, DOC AND INTERNATIONAL

TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (last updated Feb. 11th, past position in parentheses) 

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Nomadland (2)

3) Minari (3)

4) Mank (6)

5) Promising Young Woman (8)

6) One Night in Miami (4)

7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (5)

8) Sound of Metal (-)

9) News of the World (10)

10) Judas and the Black Messiah (9)

Other Possibles: Da 5 Bloods, The Father

Hot: Mank, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman

Not: Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST DIRECTOR (last updated Feb. 4th, past position in parentheses) 

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (1)

2) David Fincher/Mank (4)

3) Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman (9)

4) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

5) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari (5)

6) Regina King/One Night in Miami (6)

7) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods (3)

8) Florian Zeller/The Father (10)

9) Paul Greengrass/News of the World (8)

10) Darius Marder/Sound of Metal (-)

Other Possibles: Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah, George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Hot: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman, David Fincher/Mank, Florian Zeller/The Father, Darius Marder/Sound of Metal

Not: Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7,Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (last updated Jan. 25th, past position in parentheses) 

1) Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (1)

2) Time (5)

3) Collective (3)

4) Dick Johnson Is Dead (2)

5) Boys State (4)

6) Welcome to Chechnya (7)

7) The Truffle Hunters (8)

8) All In: The Fight for Democracy (6)

9) 76 Days (-)

10) MLK/FBI (-)

Other Possibles: Gunda, My Octopus Teacher, The Painter and the Thief, The Mole Agent, Notturno 

Hot: Time, 76 Days, MLK/FBI

Not: Dick Johnson Is Dead, All In: The Fight for Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (last updated Jan. 25th, past position in parentheses) 

1) Another Round (1)

2) Collective (3)

3) The Two of Us (6)

4) Quo Vadis, Aida (2)

5) La Llorona (-)

6) A Sun (8)

7) I'm No Longer Here (4)

8) Dear Comrades (7)

9) Night of the Kings (5)

10) Sun Children (-)

Other Possibles: The Man Who Sold His Skin, Charlatan, The Mole Agent, Hope, Better Days

Hot: The Two of Us, La Llorona, A Sun, Sun Children

Not: Quo Vadis Aida, I'm No Longer Here, Night of the Kings

BIFA AWARDS TFF FILMS

Florain Zeller's The Father and Chloe Zhao's Nomadland both were lauded as a part of the British Independent Film Awards this past week.

Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor and Zeller and Christopher Hampton won for Best Screenplay for The Father.  The film also Best Editing.

Nomadland was named Best International Film.

Variety has the complete rundown of BIFA winners here.

NOMADLAND-WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

Esquire put up a story on Friday wherein Adrienne Westenfeld interviews the author of Nomadland, Jessica Bruder that catches up with some of the real life nomads that appeared in the film.  Linda, Bob and Swankie all get mentioned in the interview.  If you enjoyed the film and the people who make the film what it is, it's worth a read.

The interview is linked here.

THE LATEST FROM WE GURUS

The latest Gurus of Gold went up over the weekend at Movie City News.  Categories included there are Best Picture, Director and the Screenplay categories.  You may notice that my Best Picture predictions above are already a little different than what I reported to MCN last week.  It's a quck shifting landscape!

Here's the link to the new Gurus.

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Oscar Update: Supporting and Screenplays / Writers Guild Nominations Announced / Touring Nomadland

 OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Here's my latest take on Oscar nomination predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.  My last predictions for the Supporting Acting categories was on Feb. 1st and for Screenplays, it was  on Feb. 4th.  The previous position for a performer of film is indicated in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (6)

2) Youn Yuh-jung/Minari (3)

3) Olivia Colman/The Father (2)

4) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (1)

5) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (5)

6) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (4)

7) Helena Zengel/News of the World (10)

8) Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian (8)

9) Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah (7)

10) Olivia Cooke/Sound of Metal (-)

Other Possible: Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite

Hot: Glenn Close, Helena Zengel, Olivia Cooke

Not: Amanda Seyfried, Dominique Fishback, Saoirse Ronan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (1)

2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (3)

4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (4)

5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (5)

6) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (6)

7) David Strathairn/Nomadland (7)

8) Jared Leto/The Little Things (-)

9) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8)

10) Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (9)

Other Possibles: Stanley Tucci/Supernova, Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Hot: Jared Leto

Not: Stanley Tucci

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Nomadland (1)

2) One Night in Miami (2)

3) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)

4) The Father (4)

5) First Cow (5)

6) News of the World (6)

7) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (7)

8) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (8)

9) Emma (9)

10) Pieces of a Woman (10)

Other Possibles: The White Tiger, The Mauritanian

No Hots and Nots...a really stable category at the moment.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Promising Young Woman (2)

3) Minari (3)

4) Mank (4)

5) Sound of Metal (8)

6) Da 5 Bloods (5)

7) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (7)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah (9)

9) Soul (6)

10) Palm Springs (10)

Other Possibles: Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks

Hot: Sound of Metal

Not: Soul

WRITERS GUILD NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The Writers Guild of America announced their nominees for scripting excellence in film in three categories on Tuesday.  As always, there are some omissions that are considered possible/probable nominees that were ineligible for consideration (see note below).  The only TFF film that made the list was All In: The Fight for Democracy in the Documentary script category.

Nominees are as follows;

Adapted Screenplay:

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (#8 in my predictions above)

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (#3)

News of the World (#6)

One Night in Miami (#2)

The White Tiger (I've listed as an "Other Possible")

Both The Father, Pieces of a Woman and Nomadland were ineligible under WGA guidelines.

Original Screenplay:

Judas and The Black Messiah (#8)

Palm Springs  (#10)

Promising Young Woman (#2)

Sound of Metal (#5)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (#1)

Ineligible Original Screenplays included: Mank and Minari.

Documentary Screenplays:

All In: The Fight for Democracy

The Dissident

Herb Alpert Is...

Red Penguins

Totally Under Control

Gold Derby has a rundown of ineligible screenplays here.

TOURING NOMADLAND 

Lots of new stuff  about Nomaldand as it nears its release date tomorrow.  

First, a new profile from Vulture on director/writer and more Chloe Zhao.  That's linked here.

SlashFilm also looks at Zhao and reports that she has become the most awarded single film maker of any award season (and there's still a ways to go!).  That analysis is linked here.

And Time digs in on the real people and stories as well as the book by Jessica Bruder that formed the basis for the film.  That article can be accessed here.

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Oscar Update: Craft Categories / Berlin's Full Lineup Announced

 OSCAR UPDATE: CRAFT CATEGORIES

In today's post I update Oscar nomination predictions for Production Design as well as take first stabs at Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Visual Effects.  TFF films are in Bold.

PRODUCTION DESIGN 

My last prediction was on Jan. 28th.  A film's position from then is in parentheses.

1) Mank (1)

2) News of the World (3)

3) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6)

4) The Personal History of David Copperfield (5)
5) Emma (4)

6) Tenet (7)

7) Mulan (2)

8) Midnight Sky (9)

9) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8)

10) One Night in Miami (10)

Other Possibles: The Father, The Prom, First Cow

Hot: Ma Rainey

Not: Mulan

COSTUMES

1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Emma

3) Mank

4) News of the World

5) Mulan

6) The United States vs. Billie Holiday

7) The Personal History of David Copperfield

8) Ammonite

9) Promising Young Woman

10) The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Possibles: Jingle Jangle, The Glorias

MAKEUP AND HAIR (already short listed to these 10 films)

1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Hillbilly Elegy

3) Mank

4) Birds of Prey

5) Emma

6) Pinocchio

7) The Little Things

8) One Night in Miami

9) The Glorias

10) Jingle Jangle

SOUND

1) Sound of Metal

2) Tenet

3) News of the World

4) Mank

5) The Midnight Sky

6) Soul

7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

8) Da 5 Bloods

9) The Outpost

10) The Trail of the Chicago 7

VISUAL EFFECTS (already short listed to these three films)

1) Tenet

2) The Midnight Sky

3) Mank

4) Mulan

5) Welcome to Chechnya

6) Birds of Prey

7) Soul

8) The One and Only Ivan

9) Love and Monsters

10) Bloodshot

BERLIN'S FULL LINEUP ANNOUNCED

The Berlin International Film Festival has announced all of its lineup.  As frequent readers know, it iis very common for Telluride to program a film or two or three from the Berlin lineup.

Glancing at the films selected, a few caught my eye as suggesting the possibility of a Berlin play followed by a Labor Day bow in T-ride.

Xavier Beauvois' Drift Away

Daniel Bruhl's Next Door

Celine Sciamma's Petite Maman

Jim Cummings and P.J. McCabe's The Beta Test

Hong Sangsoo's Introduction

Berlin will be bifurcated with a protion of the fest happening in march and then a "Summer Special" scheduled in June.

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Oscar Update: Best Picture and Lead Acting / Oscar Shortlists / The Critics Choose / Could Cannes Be a Fall Fest? / New Trailer for Nomadland

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND LEAD ACTING

In today's post I am updating nomination predictions in three categories.  The film's previous ranking is to the right in parentheses. TFF films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

2) Nomadland (1)

3) Minari (3)

4) One Night in Miami (7)

5) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (4)

6) Mank (6)

7) Da 5 Bloods (5)

8) Promising Young Woman (10)

9) Judas and the Black Messiah (8)

10) News of the World (9)

Other Possibles: Sound of Metal, The Father

Hot: One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman

Not: Da 5 Bloods, News of the World

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (30

2) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)

3) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2)

4) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (4)

5) Zendaya/Malcom and Marie (5)

6) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday (6)

7) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (7)

8) Sidney Flanigan/Never Rarely Sometimes Always (8)

9) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (9)

10) Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth (10)

Other Possibles: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Kate Winslet/Ammonite

Hot: Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (4)

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (3)

4) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods (2)

5) Gary Oldman/Mank (5)

6) Steven Yeun/Minari (6)

7) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (7)

8) Tom Hanks/News of the World (9)

9) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (8)

10) Tahar Rahim/The Mauritanian (-)

Other Possibles: Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round, John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie, LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah

Hot: Anthony Hopkins/The Father, Tahar Rahim/The Mauritanian

Not: Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods

OSCAR SHORTLISTS

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced their shortlists for Oscars in nine categories on Tuesday.  Breaking it down, these TFF films made the following lists and are still in contention for Oscar nominations:

International Feature: Charlatan.  Other TFF possibilities not making the shortlist: Apples, Notturno and Never Gonna Snow Again.

Documentary Feature: All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Notturno and The Truffle Hunters.  Missing TFF Docs: The Way I See It

Original Score: Ammonite

Original Song: Turntables from All In: The Fight for Democracy

Live Action Short: Bittu, Da Yie, The Letter Room

The other categories short-listed Tuesday were: Visual Effects, Makeup/Hair, Documentary Shorts and Animated Shorts.

For complete lists of all nine short-listed categories I have linked to the Academy's page.

THE CRITICS CHOOSE

The Critics' Choice Awards nominees were announced this week.  Here's your TFF breakdown of nominees from that announcement:

Nomadland: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing

The Father: Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing

First Cow (from TFF #46): Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography

Mank led all films with a total of 12 nominations.

Full coverage of the Critics' Choice Awards nominations is linked here from Variety.

COULD CANNES BE A FALL FEST?

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel speculates that the Cannes Film Festival, which is currently expected to be in June/July might actually be even later.  Ruimy suggests that there are rumblings that the French fest could be headed to  September or October.

That move would potentially set the fall fest circuit on its ear.  A Cannes added to the gauntlet of Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York would make for a crazy scramble and an unpredictable effect regarding where filmmakers choose to land with their work.  a Cannes in late September or October conceivably blows up the fall season.  If  Cannes lands AFTER Telluride, Venice and Toronto...and insists that it still is scheduling only world premieres, that would have a huge ripple effect on all of the fall fests and Telluride in particular.  It's not uncommon for Telluride to screen 6-10 films that originally screen at Cannes.  In 2019, for example, TFF scheduled eight films that had played at Cannes in the spring including eventual Oscar winner Parasite.

Keep an eye on Cannes news friends!

Ruimy's complete article is here.

NEW TRAILER FOR NOMADLAND

Searchlight dropped a new trailer for Chloe Zhao's Nomadland yesterday.  Here it is from YouTube:

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Oscar Update: Animated Feature, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Song /Gurus: The Second Batch / SAG Awards and TFF / BAFTA and Telluride

OSCAR UPDATE

In today's post I am updating nomination predictions in five categories.  The film's previous ranking is to the right in parentheses. TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Soul (1)

2) Wolfwalkers (2)

3) Over the Moon (3)

4) Onward (4)

5) Earwig and the Witch (8)

6) A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (5)

7) The Croods: A New Age (9)

8) Trolls: World Tour (7)

9) The Willoughbys (6)

10) Demon Slayer (10)

Other Possibles: Lupin III

Hot: Earwig and the Witch, The Croods: A New Age

Not: The Willoughbys

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Nomadland (2)

2) Mank (1)

3) News of the World (3)

4) Tenet (4)

5) Judas and the Black Messiah (5)

6) Da 5 Bloods (8)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)

8) Minari (6)

9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)

10) First Cow (10)

Other Possibles: One Night in Miami, Midnight Sky, I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Hot: Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Not: Minari, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

FILM EDITING

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Nomadland (2)

3) Tenet (5)

4) News of theWorld (4)

5) Mank (3)

6) The Father (6)

7) Da 5 Bloods (9)

8) One Night in Miami (8)

9) Judas and the Black Messiah (10)

10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)

Other Possibles: Promising Young Woman, Minari, Sound of Metal

Hot: Da 5 Bloods

Not: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Soul (1)

2) News of the World (2)

3) Midnight Sky (4)

4) Mank (3)

5) Tenet (6)

6) Minari (5)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

8) Da 5 Bloods (8)

9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

10) The Little Things (9)

Other Possible: Hillbilly Elegy

Hot: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Mank

ORIGINAL SONG

1) One Night in Miami/Speak Now (1)

2) The Life Ahead/Seen (2)

3) Over the Moon/Rocket to the Moon (3)

4) The Prom/Wear Your Crown (4)

5) The Trial of the Chicago 7/Hear My Voice (5)

6) Eurovision/Husavik (6)

7) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm/ Wuhan Flu (7)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah/Fight for You (10)

9) Trolls: World Tour/Just Sing (8)

10) Mank/If Only You Could Save Me (9)

Other Possibles: Miss Americana/Only the Young, Onward/Carried Me with You, 40 Year Old Version/Poverty Porn

Hot/Not: A really stable category right now.

GURUS: THE SECOND BATCH

The second wave of collective predictions from The Movie City News' Gurus of Gold was up just before the weekend.  Categories include: Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Documentary and International Feature.

Check out the latest from my fellow Gurus here.

SAG AWARDS AND TFF

The Screen Actors Guild nominees were announced and TFF films produced three nominees;  Anthony Hopkins was nominated for Best actor and Olivia Colman for Best Supporting Actress fpr TFF #47 announced film The Father.  Hopkins would have been one of 2020's Tribute recipients had the fest been able to go on.  Frances McDormand was nominated for Best Actress for Nomadland.

All three actors are currently predicted to be Oscar nominees in their respective categories by MTFB.

Here's a link to the complete list of SAG nominees from Variety.

BAFTA LONG LISTS AND TELLURIDE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) released their long lists of potential nominees for film this past week.  This is the first listing of films that could eventually be nominated for BAFTA awards.

Among the films named to the list were six from the TFF #7 and one from TFF #46.  In a bit of a surprise the most named TFF #47 film was Francis Lee's Ammonite with nine mentions followed by both Nomadland and The Father with eight.

Ammonite's long list mentions were for: Best British Film, Best Actress (Kate Winlset), Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup and Hair, Score and Production Design.

Nomaldland is listed for Best Film, Direction (Chloe Zhao), Actress (Frances McDormand), Supporting Actor (David Stratharin), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Films Editing and Sound.

The Father is listed for Best Film, Best British Film, Direction (Florian Zeller), Best Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing and Production Design.

Other TFF films making the long lists were:

The Truffle Hunters with two: Best Film in a Language Other than English and Best Documentary.

All In: The Fight for Democracy: Best Documentary

MLK/FBI: Best Documentary

And from TFF #46- The Assistant with three mentions: Best Direction (Kitty Green), Best Actress (Julia Garner) and Original Screenplay

The complete long lists are linked here from BAFTA's website.

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Golden Globe Nominations Announced / Oscar Updates: Direction, Screenplays and More / New Look at The Father / All Hail Hal Holbrook

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Oscar Update: Picture and Acting / Awards News This Week / Cannes Moves

 OSCAR UPDATE: PICTURE AND ACTING

Six weeks away from the announcement of nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards means that I need to begin consolidating categories for more efficient and more frequently updating of all of the 23 categories (remember Sound Editing and Mixing has been combined into a single category for this year's awards).  Also, keep an eye open over at Movie City News' Gurus of Gold for further updates from the community of us that are this year's Gurus.  A new post should be coming from that quarter soon.

From me today are updates for Best Picture and all the acting categories.  The charts show my current expectation in order of the likelihood of nomination.  The number in parentheses to the right is the position that predicted candidate had here the last time I posted (Best Picture, Actress and Actor were on Jan. 18 and the Supporting Acting categories was on Jan. 21)  As always, predicted nominees from TFF are in Bold

BEST PICTURE 

1) Nomadland (1)

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

3) Minari (5)

4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6)

5) Da 5 Bloods (-)

6) Mank (3)

7) One Night in Miami (4)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah (9)

9) News of the World (8)

10) Promising Young Woman (10)

Other Possibles:  Sound of Metal, Soul, First Cow, The Father

Hot: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Mank, One Night in Miami, The Father

BEST ACTRESS

1) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)

3) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (4)

4) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (2)

5) Zendaya/Malcom and Marie (-)

6) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday (5)

7) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (10)

8) Sidney Flanigan/Never Sometimes Rarely Always (7)

9) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (-)

10) Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth (-)

Other Possibles: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Kate Winslet/Ammonite

Hot: Zendaya/Malcolm and Marie, Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead, Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy, Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth

Not: Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit, Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)

2) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods (4)

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (3)

4) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (2)

5) Gary Oldman/Mank (6)

6) Steven Yeun/Minari (5)

7) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (9)

8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (8)

9) Tom Hanks/News of the World (7)

10) John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie (-)

Other Possibles: LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah, Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round

Hot:Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods, Ben Affleck/The Way Back, John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie

Not: Anthony Hopkins/The Father, Tom Hanks/News of the World, LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (1)

2) Olivia Colman/The Father (3)

3) Youn Yuh-jung/Minari (2)

4) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (5)

5) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (4)

6) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (6)

7) Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah (-)

8) Jodie Foster/The Mauritainian (7)

9) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (9)

10) Helena Zengel/News of the World (8)

Other Possibles: Olivia Cooke/Sound of Metal, Candace Bergen/Let Them Talk

Hot: Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah

Not: Helena Zengel/News of the World

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (1)

2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (2)

4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (4)

5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (5)

6) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (6)

7) David Stratharin/Nomadland (9)

8) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8)

9) Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

10) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (7)

Other Possibles: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Hot: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, David Stratharin/Nomadland

Not: Stanley Tucci/Supernova

AWARDS NEWS THIS WEEK

Nominations coming this week from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are the two biggest Awards Season harbingers that will occur this week.  The Globes will announce their nominees on Wednesday morning, Feb. 3rd.  SAG nominations will pop on Thursday, Feb. 4th.

Other awards news this week...BAFTA announces their longlists for nomination possibilities on Thursday.

The IPA's Satellite Awards nominations are to be announced today.

CANNES MOVES...

We found out this week that the Cannes Film Festival will move from its traditional May dates to July this year as again, Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc on the world's film fests.  The Playlist reports that the new dates are July 6-17.

Of primary concern to TFF adherents are whether and to what extent there might be an effect on films that could play at Telluride.  It's no secret that the two fests often share a number of titles in a normal year. 

One has to wonder if that normal overlap changes this year because of the later Cannes?  Will the French fest now have a later date for announcing their lineup?  Almost assuredly.  It also means that TFF programmers that usually get to see the Cannes wares in May will have a shorter window to work with in terms of programming.

From a prognosticators viewpoint, it means that we'll have a longer period of greater uncertainty.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.

And wither Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch?  The film is all but certain to play whatever version of Cannes that exists in July and the current scuttlebutt is that it will be a September release.  Does the Cannes delay make it more or less likely that Anderson finally makes an appearance with a film at Telluride?

All good questions.  I'll try as best I can to answer some of them over the next few weeks.

Here's The Playlist's coverage of the Cannes announcement.

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