OSCAR UPDATE: PICTURE AND ACTING
Six weeks away from the announcement of nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards means that I need to begin consolidating categories for more efficient and more frequently updating of all of the 23 categories (remember Sound Editing and Mixing has been combined into a single category for this year's awards). Also, keep an eye open over at Movie City News' Gurus of Gold for further updates from the community of us that are this year's Gurus. A new post should be coming from that quarter soon.
From me today are updates for Best Picture and all the acting categories. The charts show my current expectation in order of the likelihood of nomination. The number in parentheses to the right is the position that predicted candidate had here the last time I posted (Best Picture, Actress and Actor were on Jan. 18 and the Supporting Acting categories was on Jan. 21) As always, predicted nominees from TFF are in Bold
BEST PICTURE
1) Nomadland (1)
2) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)
3) Minari (5)
4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6)
5) Da 5 Bloods (-)
6) Mank (3)
7) One Night in Miami (4)
8) Judas and the Black Messiah (9)
9) News of the World (8)
10) Promising Young Woman (10)
Other Possibles: Sound of Metal, Soul, First Cow, The Father
Hot: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Not: Mank, One Night in Miami, The Father
BEST ACTRESS
1) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)
2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)
3) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (4)
4) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (2)
5) Zendaya/Malcom and Marie (-)
6) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday (5)
7) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (10)
8) Sidney Flanigan/Never Sometimes Rarely Always (7)
9) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (-)
10) Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth (-)
Other Possibles: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Kate Winslet/Ammonite
Hot: Zendaya/Malcolm and Marie, Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead, Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy, Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth
Not: Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit, Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman
BEST ACTOR
1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)
2) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods (4)
3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (3)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (2)
5) Gary Oldman/Mank (6)
6) Steven Yeun/Minari (5)
7) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (9)
8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (8)
9) Tom Hanks/News of the World (7)
10) John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie (-)
Other Possibles: LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah, Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round
Hot:Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods, Ben Affleck/The Way Back, John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie
Not: Anthony Hopkins/The Father, Tom Hanks/News of the World, LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (1)
2) Olivia Colman/The Father (3)
3) Youn Yuh-jung/Minari (2)
4) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (5)
5) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (4)
6) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (6)
7) Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah (-)
8) Jodie Foster/The Mauritainian (7)
9) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (9)
10) Helena Zengel/News of the World (8)
Other Possibles: Olivia Cooke/Sound of Metal, Candace Bergen/Let Them Talk
Hot: Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah
Not: Helena Zengel/News of the World
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (1)
2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)
3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (2)
4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (4)
5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (5)
6) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (6)
7) David Stratharin/Nomadland (9)
8) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8)
9) Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)
10) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (7)
Other Possibles: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7
Hot: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, David Stratharin/Nomadland
Not: Stanley Tucci/Supernova
AWARDS NEWS THIS WEEK
Nominations coming this week from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are the two biggest Awards Season harbingers that will occur this week. The Globes will announce their nominees on Wednesday morning, Feb. 3rd. SAG nominations will pop on Thursday, Feb. 4th.
Other awards news this week...BAFTA announces their longlists for nomination possibilities on Thursday.
The IPA's Satellite Awards nominations are to be announced today.
CANNES MOVES...
We found out this week that the Cannes Film Festival will move from its traditional May dates to July this year as again, Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc on the world's film fests. The Playlist reports that the new dates are July 6-17.
Of primary concern to TFF adherents are whether and to what extent there might be an effect on films that could play at Telluride. It's no secret that the two fests often share a number of titles in a normal year.
One has to wonder if that normal overlap changes this year because of the later Cannes? Will the French fest now have a later date for announcing their lineup? Almost assuredly. It also means that TFF programmers that usually get to see the Cannes wares in May will have a shorter window to work with in terms of programming.
From a prognosticators viewpoint, it means that we'll have a longer period of greater uncertainty. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
And wither Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch? The film is all but certain to play whatever version of Cannes that exists in July and the current scuttlebutt is that it will be a September release. Does the Cannes delay make it more or less likely that Anderson finally makes an appearance with a film at Telluride?
All good questions. I'll try as best I can to answer some of them over the next few weeks.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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