OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENATRY FEATURE, INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Predicting the winners for the 93rd Academy Awards.
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Soul
2) Wolkwalkers
3) Onward
4) Over the Moon
5) Farmageddon: A Shaun the Sheep Movie
DOCUMENATRY FEATURE
1) My Octopus Teacher
2) Time
3) Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
4) Collective
5) The Mole Agent
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Another Round
2) Quo Vadis, Aida
3) Collective
4) The Man Who Sold His Skin
5) Better Days
Comments: Most years Telluride is represented in both the International and Documentary categories and on occasion TFF films pop up in the Animated feature category as well. But that's not the case in this year of Covid.
As a matter of fact you have to go all the way back to 2004 for the last time that a TFF film wasn't nominated in at least one of the categories.
Both Soul and Another Round appear to be prohibitive favorites in their respective categories. Meanwhile, the Doc category remains one of the most competitive and tight races as we count down the last three weeks before the winners are announced on April 25th.
In Thursday's post, I'll predict winners for Cinematography, Editing, Production Design and I'll update the Best Picture and Best Director categories.
THE CANNES-NUNDRUM
So I've written a good deal about the up-in-the-air 2021 Cannes Film Festival. Those who are regular readers of this space know that Cannes selections often provide fertile ground for films that will eventually also screen at Telluride. Eight films in 2019 played at Cannes before screening at Telluride over Labor Day weekend.
But the Cannes-nundrum this year is that Cannes is on the move. Normally by this time we'd be deep into trying to discern what films would be Cannes selections for clues as to what 6-10 of them would end up in Telluride. In 2019 Cannes named its list of films on April 18th. But with Cannes saying they're fest will run in July (and rumors that it could be put off until October), what Cannes and/or Telluride watchers are left with is a world where too many uncertainties make predicting films that will play one or the other or both is ridiculously difficult.\
Take Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch. It is widely assumed that the film will...probably...debut at Cannes. But that talk has been around since before Cannes 2020 was canceled because of the pandemic. It was assumed, at least for awhile, that the film would simply move to Cannes 2021. Even when Cannes organizers began pointing toward a possible delay until July, it seemed probable that Cannes would be the destination.
Now add in that The French Dispatch along the way had a release date in mid-September. That and Searchlight as a distributor made it a tempting film to predict for Telluride. But The French Dispatch has no official release date as of now. The Cannes uncertainty is likely the cause. If the French fest ultimately ends up in October the fall film fest lineup of Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York all would be impacted.
My guess, and it's just a guess, is that The French Dispatch goes wherever and however Cannes goes. So if your any of those fall fests that have been thinking they could get Wes Anderson and crew for their fest-an October Cannes likely means that's not going to happen.
What other films could have to make that calculation?
Take a look at Jordan Ruimy's list of Cannes possibles (he updated it as recently as Mar. 28th):
Directors set to have new films ready by Cannes include
”Soggy Bottom” (Paul Thomas Anderson)
”The French Dispatch” (Wes Anderson)
”Annette” (Leos Carax)
”Macbeth” (Joel Coen)
”The Way of the Wind” (Terrence Malick)
”Ahed’s Knee” (Nadav Lapid)
”Blonde” (Andrew Dominik)
”Memoria” (Apichatpong Weerasethakul)
”Benedetta” (Paul Verhoeven)
”Blossoms” (Wong Kar-wai)
”The Power of the Dog” (Jane Campion)
”Tromperie” (Arnaud Desplechin)
”Bergman Island” (Mia Hansen-Løve)
”Chocobar” (Lucrecia Martel)
”Les Olympiades” (Jacques Audiard)
”The Souvenir Part II” (Joanna Hogg)
”Tre Piani” (Nanni Moretti)
”Triangle of Sadness” (Ruben Ostlund)
”The Hand of God” (Paolo Sorrentino)
"Mektoub: Canto Duo" (Abdelatif Kechiche)
“Benediction” (Terrence Davies)
“The Green Knight” (David Lowery)
“Italian Studies” (Adam Leon)
“Algerien Par Accident” (Karim Aïnouz)
“Last Night in Soho” (Edgar Wright)
“The Northman” (Robert Eggers)
“After Yang” (Kogonada)
“Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon” (Ana Lily Amirpour)
I'd imagine that for a good number of these directors, playing Cannes in October and not having an appearance at any of the fall fests prior to Cannes would be just fine (I expect Cannes will insist on world premieres regardless of the date they ultimately land on).
But a number of these folks have played Telluride and often as a pairing with either Cannes or Venice:
PTA, Malick, Coen, Campion, Hansen-Love, Audiard, Kechiche, Lowery. What do they do and how will those choices affect Telluride and other festivals? It's a puzzle I haven't begun to solve.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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