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Welp...the Big Three Fall Film Fests are in the books. TFF #49's MTFB polls are all in and posted. So, now we begin to turn the page and focus on the Oscar season that is about to unfold and, more specifically, how TFF #49 films will fare over the next months or so.
Key Dates for the 95th Academy Awards:
Oscar Nomination voting Jan. 12-17
Nominations announced Jan. 24
Oscar Final voting: Mar. 2-7
The 95th Academy Awards Mar. 12
Here's your first look at my early line in six major categories. TFF #49 films are indicated in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Fabelmans
2) Babylon
3) Everything Everywhere All at Once
4) Women Talking
5) The Banshees of Inisherin
6) Top Gun: Maverick
7) TAR
8) Avatar: The Way of Water
9) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10) Empire of Light
11) Elvis
12) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans
2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking
3) Damien Chazelle/ Babylon
4) Todd Field/TAR
5) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once
6) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin
7) James Cameron: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST ACTRESS
1) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once
2) Cate Blanchett/TAR
3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans
4) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light
5) Margot Robbie/Babylon
6) Danielle Deadwyler/Till
7) Carey Mulligan/She Said
BEST ACTOR
1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale
2) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin
3) Austin Butler/Elvis
4) Bill Nighy/Living
5) Hugh Jackman/The Son
6) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick
7) Adam Driver/White Noise
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking
2) Clare Foy/Women Talking
3) Hong Chau/The Whale
4) Patricia Clarkson/She Said
5) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once
6) Laura Dern/The Son
7) Sadie Sink/The Whale
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin
2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once
3) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking
4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans
5) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans
6) Jeremy Strong/Armageddon Time
7) Brad Pitt/Babylon
My personal candidates for whom I am beating the drum:
Bill Nighy/Living-Best Actor
Judith Ivey/Women talking-Best Supporting Actress
Jeremy Strong/Armageddon Time-Best Supporting Actor
Ben Whishaw/Women Talking-Best Supporting Actor
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On-Best Picture, Best Animated Feature, Best Adapted Screenplay
VARIETY'S CLAYTON DAVIS SAYS...
For a more holistic view of Oscar prospects for TFF #49 films I turned to the latest Oscar predicitons from Variety's chief Oscar prognosticator Clayton Davis. Davis currently has not yet predicted a number of categories. He has predicted Best Picture, Direction, all four acting categories, both screenplay categories, Cinematography, International Feature and Animated Feature. Here's what he has predicted currently for nominations for films that screened at TFF #49:
Women Talking (7 nominations): Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Ivey, Supporting Actor/Whishaw, Adapted Screenplay
TAR (5 nominations): Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett, Supporting Actress/Hoss, Original Screenplay
Empire of Light (3 nominations): Picture, Actress/Colman and Cinematography
Bardo (2 nominations) International Feature, Cinematography
Single nominations:
Living: Best Actor/Nighy
Close: International Feature
Holy Spider: International Feature
***Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (TFF #48)
BARDO- HAS A TRAILER AND IS 22 MINUTES SHORTER
First the trailer for the film by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu via YouTube:
Additionally, multiple sources reported this week that the film had been cut by 22 minutes down from a Telluride runtime of 174 min. to 152.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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