MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays / Updating from Feinberg / Visitations: Polley and White

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.  These were last predicted on Oct. 31st.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) The Whale (4)

4) She Said (3)

5) Living (6)

6) White Noise (5)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Babylon (7)

7) Elvis (New)

Dropping Out: Armageddon Time

UPDATING FROM FEINBERG

I last reported on Scott Feinberg's, The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, predictions on Sept. 29th.  I am updating with Feinberg's most recent predictions in as far as Telluride 2022 films are concerned.  Here's what Feinberg had on 9/29:

Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay

TAR: Best Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett

Empire of Light: Best Actress/Colman

Close: International Feature

Holy Spider: International Feature

Bardo: International Feature

Goodnight Oppy: Documentary Feature

Retrograde: Documentary Feature

TFF #49 films that Feinberg is currently predicting to be Oscar nominated (in the 11 categories he has predicted):

Women Talking (5): Picture, Direction (Polley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actress (Buckley), Adapted Screenplay.  Women Talking is also listed as a major threat for two other nominations: Actress (Mara) and Supporting Actor (Whishaw).

TAR (3): Picture, Direction (Field), Actress (Blanchett).  TAR is also predicted as a major threat for two other nominations: Supporting Actress (Hoss) and Original Screenplay.

Close (1): International Feature.  Close is also a major threat for two other nominations: Direction (Dhont) and Original Screenplay.

Holy Spider (1): International Feature

Three TFF #49 documentaries are predicted to be nominated for Best Documentary: Good Night Oppy, Retrograde and Last Flight Home.  Also predicted here is Navalny which is a borderline TFF pick as it screened in Elks Park prior to the start of the fest.

So Feinberg has TFF #49 films with a total of 13 nominations in 11 categories.  That's down a couple from his first set of predictions reported here on Sept. 29th.

A number of TFF #49 films are named as "Major Threats" in several categories including:

Living: Picture, Actor (Nighy) and Adapted Screenplay

Armageddon Time: Picture, Supporting Actor (Strong), Original Screenplay

Empire of Light: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actor (Ward)

Lady Chatterley's Lover: Adapted Screenplay

The Wonder: Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary

Sr. Documentary

The Return of Tanya Tucker: Documentary

Bardo: International Feature

Bones and All: Original Song

The full set of Feinberg's Forecast at THR is linked here.

VISITATIONS

Director Ryan White on Good Night Oppy from Deadline

Director Sarah Polley on Women Talking from The Globe and Mail

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB Oscar Take: Supporting Update / Independent Spirit Nominees Announced / Visitations: Reznor, Foy and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SUPPORTING UPDATE

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.  These were last predicted on Nov. 10th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Clare Foy/Women Talking (3)

4) Carey Mulligan/She Said (5)

5) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (New)

6) Hong Chau/The Whale (4)

7) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (New)

Out: Nina Hoss/TAR and Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)

5) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (4)

6) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (6)

7) Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse (New)

Out: Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time

INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD NOMINEES ANNOUNCED

Film Independent announced the nominees for the 29th Independent Spirit Awards on Tuesday.  This year's ceremony is currently scheduled for Mar. 4, 2023.  Telluride Films nabbed 20 nominations overall with Sarah Polley's Women Talking named the winner of the Robert Altman Award which goes to the director, casting directors and the ensemble cast.

Nominations Breakdown:

TAR (7): Best Feature, Direction (Field), Lead Performance (Blanchett), Supporting Performance (Hoss), Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.

Aftersun (5): Best First Feature, Lead Performance (Mescal), Breakthrough Performance (Corio), Cinematography and Editing.

Women Talking (3): Best Feature, Direction and Screenplay plus the above mentioned Robert Altman Award.

Bones and All (3): Best Feature, Lead Performance (Russell), Supporting Performance (Rylance).

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Editing.  Marcel was a selection of TFF #48.

Everything, Everywhere All at Once lead the pack with a total of 8 nominations including Best Feature.  I sort of regard it as Telluride-adjacent because of the special screening of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Michelle Yeoh's presence at TFF #49.

The complete list of Indy Spirit nominees is here from the Film Independent website.

VISITATIONS

Clare Foy, Ben Whihsaw and Sarah Polley on Women Talking from Deadline.com

Judith Ivey on Women Talking from Gold Derby

 

Composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross on Bones and All from The Playlist

Director Ryan White on Good Night Oppy from next Best Picture

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB Oscar Take: Lead Acting Update / Trailers and Teasers: Living / Visitations: Strong, Foy, Polley and More

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LEAD ACTING UPDATE

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress and Best Actor.  These were last predicted on Nov. 7th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Danielle Deadwyler/Till (4)

4) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Margot Robbie/Babylon (7)

6) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light (5)

7) Viola Davis/The Woman King (6)

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

2) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (6)

6) Diego Calva/Babylon (New)

7) Hugh Jackman/The Son (5)

Dropping Out: Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans

TRAILERS AND TEASERS

Living starring Bill Nighy from Sony Pictures Classics via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

James Gray and Jeremy Strong on Armageddon Time from Deadline.com

Sarah Polley on Women Talking from Variety

Todd Field on TAR from Awards Watch

Paul Mescal and Frankie Corio on Aftersun from The BFI

Clare Foy on Women Talking from Deadline.com

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture and Direction / Trailers and Teasers: Empire of Light and If These Walls Could Sing / Critics Choice Doc Awards and TFF #49 / Visitations: Timothee Chalamet, Sam Mendes and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Nov. 3rd.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Women Talking (3)

4) Top Gun: Maverick (6)

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

6) TAR (5)

7) Elvis (10)

8) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (New)

9) Glass Onion (7)

10) Triangle of Sadness (11)

11) She Said (9)

12) Babylon (8)

Out: Empire of Light

Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Living and Armageddon Time

Comment: Wildly divergent responses to Damien Chazelle's Babylon from screenings this week in Los Angeles and New York have lead me to drop its prospects for a Best Picture nomination significantly.  The film is under an embargo for full reviews but social media reaction was divisive to say the least.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Todd Field/TAR (4)

5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)

6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)

7) Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (7)

TRAILERS AND TEASERS

Official Trailer for Empire of Light via YouTube:

Official trailer for If These Walls Could Sing from YouTube:

CRITICS CHOICE DOC AWARDS AND TFF #49

The Critics Choice Awards for Documentary film making were named last Sunday night and TFF #49 entrant Good Night Oppy dominated the evening.

Oppy won for Best Doc (Gold award), Direction, Best Science/Nature Doc, Score and Narration. 

Navalny, which was not included in the TFF #49 program but reportedly did screen in Elk Park prior to the Fest's officially opening received the Bronze award for Doc Feature as well as Best Political Doc.

And Citizen Ashe which screened at TFF #48 was named Best Sports Doc.

The complete rundown of all of the winners is here from ShowBiz411.

VISITATIONS

Luca Guadagnino, Timothee Chalamet and Taylor Russell talk Bones and All with Variety

Taylor Russell on Bones and All with SlashFilm

Writer and director Sam Mendes on Empire of Light with Deadline

Actor Sheila McCarthy on Women Talking from Awards Daily

Director Ryan White talks Good Night Oppy with Awards Radar

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays / Marcel Is Eligible / Trailer for The Corridors of Power / Visitations: Pugh, Polley, Gray and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.  These were last predicted on Oct. 31st.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) She Said (3)

4) The Whale (4)

5) White Noise (5)

6) Living (6)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Armageddon Time (7)

7) Babylon (6)

MARCEL IS ELIGIBLE

News this past week that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has deemed Dean Fleischer Camp's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (TFF #48) will be eligible for consideration for the Best Animated Feature Oscar.  

There had been some discussion that it would not be eligible because of the significant amount of live action that exists in the films but those concerns were allayed with the decision this week from AMPAS's Short Film and Animation Branch Executive Committee according to reporting from Carolyn Giardina writing for The Hollywood Reporter.

Marcel still faces a challenging set of competitors including the soon-to-be-released Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio out on Dec. 9th which has been garnering rave reviews.

TRAILER FOR THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Here's the first trailer for Dror Moreh's TFF #49 documentary The Corridors of Power.  The film focuses on U.S. foreign policy and its players in the 1990's and how it still resonates today. 

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Sarah Polley and crew on Women Talking from Variety

Actor Michael Ward on Empire of Light from Entertainment Weekly

Writer/Director James Gray on Armageddon Time from Deadline and Academy Conversations on YouTube

Director Ryan White on Good Night Oppy from Solzy at the Movies and Prime Video

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Roles / European Film Awards and TFF #49 / Trailers: Retrograde and Wildcat / Visitations: Todd Field

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ROLES

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.  These were last predicted on Oct. 27th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (5)

3) Clare Foy/Women Talking (2)

4) Hong Chau/The Whale (3)

5) Carey Mulligan/She Said (4)

6) Nina Hoss/TAR (New)

7) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (New)

Out: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere and Janelle Monae/Glass Onion

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)

4) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (4)

5) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)

6) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (New)

7) Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time (7)

Out: Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse

EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS AND TFF #49

The nominations for the European Film Awards were announced on Tuesday.  Here are how films that screened at Telluride this year fared:

Close (4): Best European Film, Direction, Actor (Dambrine), Screenwriter

Holy Spider (4): European Film, Direction, Actress (Amir-Ebrahimi), Screenwriter

TFF #49 films with a single EFA nomination:

Aftersun: Best European Actor (Mescal)

One Fine Morning: Best European Actress (Seydoux)

Godland: Best European Actor (Hove)

March on Rome: Best European Documentary

And from TFF #48 a nomination for Best European Screenwriter for Kenneth Branagh's Belfast

From the EFA, here is the complete list of nominees.

TRAILERS

For Matthew Heineman's documentary Retrograde from National Geographic releasing this Friday:

For Melissa Leash and Trevor Frost's Wildcat from Amazon Studios releasing Dec. 30th.

VISITATIONS: TODD FIELD

Interview with TAR's writer/director Todd Field from Variety.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Take: Lead Acting Update / BIFA Nominations and TFF #49 / Visitations: Field, Nighy, Strong and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LEAD ACTING UPDATE

 I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress and Best Actor.  These were last predicted on Oct. 24th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

4) Daniaelle Deadwyler/Till (4)

5) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light (5)

6) Viola Davis/The Woman King (6)

7) Margot Robbie/Babylon (7)

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

2) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Hugh Jackman/The Son (5)

6) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (6)

7) Gabrielle LaBelle/The Fabelmans (7)

BIFA NOMINATIONS AND TFF #49

Five films from the TFF #49 lineup earned nominations from the British Independent Film Association this week.

Charlotte Wells' Aftersun lead all films with 16 nominations: Best British Independent Film, Direction, Debut Directing, Joint Lead Performance/Mescal and Corio, Screenplay, Breakthrough Performance/Corio, Debut Screenwriter, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Original Music, Makeup and Hair, Music Supervision, Sound, Production Design.

Sebastian Lelio's The Wonder also did quite well with 12 nominations: Best British Independent Film, Direction, Screenplay, Lead Performance/Pugh, Ensemble Performance, Breakthrough Performance/Cassidy, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Music, Makeup and Hair, Sound and Production Design

Oliver Hermanus' Living also had a good day with 9 nominations: Best British Independent Film, Direction, Screenplay, Lead Performance/Nighy, Supporting Performance/Wood, Casting, Costume Design, Music Supervision, Production Design.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Close were nominated for Best International Independent Film.

TFF #49 films totaled 39 nominations.

The complete list of all BIFA nominations is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.

VISITATIONS

Writer/Director Todd Field talks about TAR with Variety.

Actor Jeremy Strong on Armageddon Time with Indiewire.

Actor Bill Nighy talks Living with Indiewire. 

Sound Designer Mark Mangini on Good Night Oppy with Indiewire.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Take: Updating Best Picture and Direction / Davis' TFF #49 Predix / Visitations: Anne Hathaway, James Gray and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Oct. 20th.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Women Talking (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) TAR (6)

6) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

7) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)

8) Babylon (7) 

9) She Said (10)

10) Elvis (8)

11) Triangle of Sadness (New)

12) Empire of Light (12)

Out: The Woman King

Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Armageddon Time

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

4) Todd Field/TAR (3)

5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)

6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)

7) Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (New)

Dropping out: Sam Mendes/Empire of Light 

DAVIS' TFF #49 PREDIX

I'm keeping tabs this year on some of the Oscar prognosticators out there and what nominations they think TFF #49 films will earn when that announcement comes of the morning of Jan. 24th.

I started with Variety's Clayton Davis back on Sept. 26th.  At that time, this is what Davis had for TFF films:

Women Talking (7 nominations): Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Ivey, Supporting Actor/Whishaw, Adapted Screenplay

TAR (5 nominations): Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett, Supporting Actress/Hoss, Original Screenplay

Empire of Light (3 nominations): Picture, Actress/Colman and Cinematography

Bardo (2 nominations) International Feature, Cinematography

Single nominations:

Living: Best Actor/Nighy

Close: International Feature

Holy Spider: International Feature

***Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (TFF #48): Best Animated Feature

Now, five and a half weeks later, this is what Mr. Davis has:

Women Talking (5 nominations): Best Picture, Direction/Polley, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay and Score.  Davis has dropped acting noms for Care Foy and Ben Whishaw.

TAR (5 nominations): Best Picture, Direction (Field), Actress (Blanchett), Supporting Actress/Hoss, Original Screenplay.  No changes.

Living (3 nominations): Best Picture, Actor/Nighy, Adapted Screenplay.  Davis has added Living to the Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay predictions.

Empire of Light (2 nominations): Best Cinematography and Original Score.  Empire has been dropped from Best Picture and Best Actress.

Single nominations:

Good Night Oppy: Documentary

Sr.: Documentary

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary

Retrograde: Documentary

Holy Spider: International Feature

Close: International Feature

Total TFF #49 nominations predicted by Davis at this time: 21

Davis' full predictions can be accessed here.

VISITATIONS:

Anne Hathaway in Indiewire on Armageddon Time

Banks Repeta at Gold Derby on Armageddon Time

Screenwriter David Kajganich at Gold Derby on Bones and All

Director/Writer James Gray at The Hollywood Reporter on Armageddon Time

James Gray with The Playlist on Armageddon Time

Actor Michael Ward with Variety on Empire of Light

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays