Michael's Telluride Film Blog : MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays / Updating from Feinberg / Visitations: Polley and White

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay. These were last predicted on Oct. 31st. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) The Whale (4)

4) She Said (3)

5) Living (6)

6) White Noise (5)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Babylon (7)

7) Elvis (New)

Dropping Out: Armageddon Time

UPDATING FROM FEINBERG

I last reported on Scott Feinberg's, The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, predictions on Sept. 29th. I am updating with Feinberg's most recent predictions in as far as Telluride 2022 films are concerned. Here's what Feinberg had on 9/29:

Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay

TAR: Best Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett

Empire of Light: Best Actress/Colman

Close: International Feature

Holy Spider: International Feature

Bardo: International Feature

Goodnight Oppy: Documentary Feature

Retrograde: Documentary Feature

TFF #49 films that Feinberg is currently predicting to be Oscar nominated (in the 11 categories he has predicted):

Women Talking (5): Picture, Direction (Polley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actress (Buckley), Adapted Screenplay. Women Talking is also listed as a major threat for two other nominations: Actress (Mara) and Supporting Actor (Whishaw).

TAR (3): Picture, Direction (Field), Actress (Blanchett). TAR is also predicted as a major threat for two other nominations: Supporting Actress (Hoss) and Original Screenplay.

Close (1): International Feature. Close is also a major threat for two other nominations: Direction (Dhont) and Original Screenplay.

Holy Spider (1): International Feature

Three TFF #49 documentaries are predicted to be nominated for Best Documentary: Good Night Oppy, Retrograde and Last Flight Home. Also predicted here is Navalny which is a borderline TFF pick as it screened in Elks Park prior to the start of the fest.

So Feinberg has TFF #49 films with a total of 13 nominations in 11 categories. That's down a couple from his first set of predictions reported here on Sept. 29th.

A number of TFF #49 films are named as "Major Threats" in several categories including:

Living: Picture, Actor (Nighy) and Adapted Screenplay

Armageddon Time: Picture, Supporting Actor (Strong), Original Screenplay

Empire of Light: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actor (Ward)

Lady Chatterley's Lover: Adapted Screenplay

The Wonder: Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary

Sr. Documentary

The Return of Tanya Tucker: Documentary

Bardo: International Feature

Bones and All: Original Song

The full set of Feinberg's Forecast at THR is linked here.