Flower Moon Has a Date / Ioncinema's Cannes Predictions

 FLOWER MOON HAS A DATE

Since my last post on Monday we have come to learn that Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon will have a limited release in select U.S. theaters on Oct. 6th followed by a wide release two weeks later on Oct. 20th.  Variety, among others, reported the news on Monday.

The announcement comes amid lots of informed buzz that the film will screen at the 76th Cannes Film Festival.  Other news regarding KOTFM releasing strategy in France indicates that the film could actually screen in competition for the Palme d'Or.

The Oct. 6th date also means that Telluride along with the  Toronto and New York fests could, in theory, also screen the film.

I still believe a New York slot for its North American premiere is the most likely scenario.  Additionally, and this is just complete speculation on my part, but I half-way suspect that there will be some sort of fairly exclusive screening prior to the films announced release in Tulsa, OK. that will focus on presenting the film for the Osage Nation and other locals that worked on the film.

Telluride chances-still about 10%.

IONCINEMA'S CANNES PREDICTIONS

Over the past several days Ioncinema has been posting daily predictions for various sections of the Cannes Film Fest.  This is worth noting as Ioncinema has a pretty solid track record regarding the buzz for films in France in May and because of the oft mentioned penchant for Telluride to screen an average of seven films each year that have screened previously there.

Highlights from some their predictions in terms of films that could do Cannes in May and then The SHOW in September.

From its" Out of Competiton/Special Screenings post:

Cobweb-Kim Jee-woon.  His The Good the Bad and the Weird played at TFF in 2008.

Fallen Leaves (or maybe its Dead Leaves... I'm seeing it translated both ways) Aki Kaurismaki

Daaaaaali!-Quentin Dupieux-His Mandibles would have played at TFF #47.

The Book of Solutions-Michael Gondry

Orwell-Raoul Peck-Its recent attachment to NEON has made me think it's a possible.

From its Un Certain Regard predictions:

Only one film from this list jumps out at me and that's Kitty Green's A Royal Hotel.

And from its Palme d'Or Competition predictions:

Io Capitano-Matteo Garrone

La Chimera-Alice Rohrwacher

May/December-Todd Haynes

Poor Things-Yorgos Lanthimos

The Zone of Interest-Jonathan Glazer

Untitled Sean Baker film

As an added note, we now know that Cannes will announce its lineup (or at least most of it) on April 13th.  Here's the press announcement from Apple.  That'll be just in time to get a post up about it before MTFB goes dark for three weeks.

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750,000 / 50 for Cannes / Meanwhile...Venice

750,000

I kind of teased this a little bit in my last post.  MTFB passed its 750,000 view over the weekend.  Three quarters of a million views!  That makes my head explode just a little bit. 

MTFB's first appeared on August 8th 2008 (8/8/08).  Today marks the 2115th post since I started this thing meaning that each post has averaged 355ish views.  The single most viewed post was Jan. 18, 2018.  That post focused on precursors that were upcoming for the 90th Oscar ceremony and a Variety piece featuring Greta Gerwig and Saorise Ronan talking about Lady Bird.

Here's the very post.

Here's the most viewed post.

50 FOR CANNES

Eric Kohn and the gang at Indiewire has put together a list of 50 films that the billas films they'd "like to see" at Cannes in May.  The heading on the email link for the story from Twitter calls them predictions though.  

As I have said many times, the Cannes/Telluride connection is very real.  Last year the Cannes/Telluride crossover was nine films by my count:

Armageddon Time

Broker

Close

Godland 

Holy Spider

One Fine Morning

Tori and Lokita

Le Pupille

Aftersun

Last year from Indiewire's 50 film wish list I culled 15 "possible" crossover films and from that list, seven actually made the trip: Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider, One Fine Morning, Tori and Lokita and Women Talking.

Bones and All was the only film on last year's Indiewire list that made the Telluride lineup (and from Venice not Cannes) that I didn't have in the 2022 version of this post.

The Indiewire post starts with the caveat that everyone is assuming that Killers of the Flower Moon will screen out of competition at Cannes as well as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.  I'm already frequently on record that I'm making blood sacrifices in my backyard to get Killers to TFF but that I think the chances are slim.  Not impossible...but slim.  Of course Indy 5 releases on June 30th.

They also mention Pedro Almodovar's short film Strange Way of Life which is tipped to be the opening night film.  I actually think there is a reasonable possibility that it does make the TFF #50 lineup.

That said...here are what I think are the best shots at Cannes-then-Telluride films for the 50th edition of The SHOW from the Indieiwire list:

The Book of Solutions/Michel Gondry

Dead Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

La Chimera/Alice Rohrwacher

Io Capitano/Matteo Garrone

Monster/Hirokazu Kore-eda

The New Boy/Warwick Thornton

May/December/Todd Haynes

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Royal Hotel/Kitty Green

Tokyo Toilet/Wim Wenders

The Zone of Interest/Jonathan Glazer

Here's the complete Indiewire story.

MEANWHILE...VENICE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a Venice spec piece on Saturday and it has some interesting ideas.  Venice and Cannes have nearly the same level of crossover to Telluride with Venice averaging (over the last decade) 7.3 films making the Venice/Telluride double dip.

Last year there were 10 films that accomplished the double play:

Bardo

Bobi Wine

Bones and All

A Compassionate Spy

Desperate Souls: Midnight Cowboy...

Fragments of Paradise

Living

TAR

March on Rome

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

So what does Jordan have that could (or that I want to) make the Venice/Telluride connection?

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

AND/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Killer/David Fincher

Blitz/Steve McQueen

How Do You Live?/Hayao Myazaki

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Challengers/Luca Guadagnino

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Ruimy also mentions a couple of other films that could be in the mix for Venice first and then T-ride: Sofia Coppola's Priscilla and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.

Here's Jordan's full post.

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Variety's Early Oscar #96 Outlook / Some Hints and Allegations

VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR #96 OUTLOOK

I'm continuing to check in with early predictions for next year's Oscars that might give us some clues about possible TFF #50 films and today's candidate is Variety's Oscar guru Clayton Davis.  

Davis put up his first stab last week and I have combed through it over the last few days.  Davis has the post organized by distributor so I'll follow along  focusing on films that he has mentioned in the eight "major" categories: Picture, Director, the four Acting categories and the two screen writing categories.  

Here's what I have so far:

Apple: Killers of the Flower Moon (Scorsese) and Napoleon (Scott).  We should be hearing soon officially that KOTFM will be at Cannes and maybe get an actual domestic release date.  Maybe even a teaser/trailer?  Maybe Napoleon wits until 2024. Though I continue to offer up prayers to the programming gods...I 'm still realistically putting Killer's chances of a TFF #50 screening at 10%.

Netflix:  Maestro (Cooper), The Killer (Fincher), Rustin (Wolfe), Nyad (Chin/Vasarhelyi) and Caste (DuVernay).  At the moment I feel like all of these are low level possibilities with the exception of Nyad.  It feels like the most likely prospect from the Netflix list.  At least for now.  Nyad's chances 25%.  The rest of the list 10%.

Amazon/MGM: Saltburn (Fennell) and Flint Strong (Morrison).  I have a fairly optimistic view for each of these films.  Moreso Flint Strong  than Saltburn.  Put Flint Strong at 30% and Saltburn at 25%.

Warners: The Color Purple (Bazawule).  Warners also has Wonka and Dune 2 coming but I think that those two films have almost 0% chance at a Telluride play.  As to The Color Purple...I'm slightly more bullish on its chances but only slightly.  Mark it at 10%.  Warners may have players that will have already been released prior to TFF #50 in Ben Affleck's Air which seems to have been big hit at South by Southwest (which is where Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered last year on its way to seven Oscars) and Greta Gerwig's Barbie which will pop on July 21st...the same day as Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer.

Searchlight: Next Goal Wins (Waititi), Poor Things (Lanthimos) and Strangers (Haigh).  With Haigh's recent TFF history (45 Years, Lean on Pete) and a TFF friendly cast (Paul Mescal, Claire Foy) this feels like Searchlight's most likely TFF entrant.  Poor Things also seems a real possibility.  Next Goal Wins feels likely even though its release date was recently moved from the summer to the post-Telluride, Venice and even Toronto date of Sept. 22.

NEON: The Actor (Johnson), Mother's Instinct (Delhomme) and Longlegs (Perkins) are all mentioned by Davis but I don't really have strong feeling at the moment that any of them are TFF possibilities.

Focus Features: Clayton mentions Asteroid City (W. Anderson) and The Holdovers (Payne).  Asteroid City...which intrigues me, won't be doing any of the fall fests as it is currently dated for release on June 23.  The Holdovers however...Alexander Payne's bounce back from Downsizing which is rumored to be a "return to form".  It's scheduled release date of Nov. 22 puts right smack in the middle of the convo for fall fests.  It is currently my pick as the best chance at a Telluride berth.

Sony Pictures Classics: Davis lists A Little Prayer, Shayda and Freud's Last Session.  Though it played Sundance, I have already written that A Little Prayer might follow the same path that Manchester by the Sea, Living, The Report and The Father (had TFF #47 had happened) did and show up at The SHOW.  Shayda screened at Sundance as well but doesn't fit the same profile as A Little Prayer.  Finally, about Freud's Last Session...its production status is murky.  None of these seem like a slam dunk but SPC's TFF history is long so expect some thing(s) from them at the 50th.

A24: Davis mentions Past Lives (Song) which played Sundance and has a June 2 release date and Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which seems like it could be a TFF possibility.  The Coppola name has often been a part of the fest dating back to year one but Sofia's one Telluride outing was Lost in Translation back in 2003.

Davis mentions films from Bleecker Street and IFC which will all have been released prior to TFF #50.

One other intriguing note is Davis's highlighting of Jeymes Samuel's The Book of Clarence.  He has it predicted for five Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Direction and Actor.  The film is from Sony/Legendary- neither of which has had a Telluride profile but its reported release date of Sept. 22nd and its stacked cast (Cumberbatch, McAvoy, Stanfield, Oyelowo) makes you have to at least consider the possibility.

  

And a quick note about one of Clayton's predictions for Best Animated Feature: Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live?  Considering Telluride's penchant for screening Miyazaki (The Wind Rises, Spirited Away, Princess Mononoke) and with this, perhaps being his last film, you have to think it's a realistic possibility.

Here's the entire piece from Davis/Variety. 

SOME HINTS AND ALLEGATIONS

As April looms I thought I'd mention two or three things that will be important as far as the Blog is concerned.

It looks like MTFB will pass a couple of landmarks before TFF #50 takes off.  Look for those announcements.

MTFB will be dormant after the April 13th post until May 4th.

I'm cooking up some pieces that will be special to the 50th edition of The SHOW some of which will need reader participation.  I'm talking Tribute histories, Guest Directors and possible selections. Hope that's fun and that you'll join in when prompted.

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Oscar #96 Spec and TFF #50 / Maybe Guadagnino...And Maybe Not

 OSCAR #96 AND TFF #50

As I have mentioned over the last couple of weeks, with the end of the Oscar Parade for another year, we can begin to seriously beginning to look at possibilities for the lineup for TFF #50.  One of the ways to do that is to gather information from pundits about what they suspect will be major films for the rest of the year.  To that end, I have begun collecting that data.  

Next Best Picture has up an early Oscar speculative list that includes many intriguing possibilities.  I have culled that list down to these  films based on the film's director and their history with Telluride or lack thereof, the film's distributor and their TFF history and the release dates for those that have been announced.  Here, in alphabetical order are the films from the NBP list that seem to me to have the best shot at a spot at TFF #50.  I have listed by title, director, distributor or producing studio and release date if known.

Blitz/Steve McQueen/Apple/TBD

The Color Purple/Blitz Bazawule/Warners/12/20/23

Fingernails/Christos Nikous/Apple/TBD

Foe/Garth Davis/Amazon/TBD

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne/Focus Features/11/10/23

The Killer/David Fincher/Netflix/11/10/23

Killers of the Flower Moon/Martin Scorsese/Apple/TBD

Lee/Ellem Kuras/No U.S. Distrib at present/TBD

Maestro/Bradley Cooper/Netflix/TBD

May December/Todd Haynes/No U.S. Distrib at present/TBD

Next Goal Wins/Taika Waititi/Searchlight/9/22/23

Nyad/J. Chin & E. Vasarhelyi/Netflix/TBD

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos/Searchlight/TBD

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola/A24/TBD

Rustin/George C. Wolfe/Netflix/TBD

Saltburn/Emerald Fennell/Amazon/TBD

Shirley/John Ridley/Netflix/TBD

Untitled Bob Marley Film/Reinaldo Marcus Green/Paramount/1/12/24

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Wes Anderson/Netflix/TBD

And on the "Other Potential Contenders" list:

Nightbitch/Marielle Heller/Searchlight/Hulu/TBD

The complete rundown from next Best Picture is linked here.

MAYBE GUADAGNINO...AND MAYBE NOT

Luca Guadagnino has had a couple of good TFF years with Bones and All and Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams appearing last year and his producing project The Truffle Hunters screening at TFF in 2020.  His latest directorial project is the tennis drama Challengers starring Zendaya and Mike Faist and comes from MGM/UA Releasing (Amazon).  I have ignored it as the film had an announced release date of August 11th.  

That appears to have changed in the past few days.  First notice I saw of it came from Erik Anderson's (Awards Watch) Twitter account:

As you can see, he was reporting the date had been changed to Sept. 15th, which, as you can see from the Tweet, puts it in a window to possibly play Venice and/or T-ride.  It could also conceivably screen at Toronto during its opening days.  The Sept. 15th date means no New York Fest.

Adding some fuel to the fire late Sunday was reporting from Jordan Ruimy and World of Reel suggesting that Challengers has secured a Venice bid.  That reporting is here.  

Ruimy's post also mentions that there are rumors that Guadagnino may be Venice's jury president this year which would almost certainly take it off the table for a TFF spot.  

Stay tuned.

Challenger's IMDb Profile appears to confirm the new date.  Here's the link to that.

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Oscar #95 Postmortem / Looking Forward

OSCAR #95 POSTMORTEM

When the Oscar's show ended Sunday night I was a bit disappointed in my 18-5 record predicting the Oscar outcome.  That's a success rate of 78.3%.  Respectable and about what I have averaged over the years since I started doing Oscar picks as a part of the aftermath of covering the Telluride Film Festival.  Of the five I missed, the only one that wasn't in last Sunday's post that wasn't a pick or at least a possible spoiler was All Quiet on the Western Front in Production Design.  Curtis and Fraser were both listed as "Spoilers" in their acting categories as were BP: Wakanda Forever and The Whale were for Costumes and Makeup/Hair respectively.  So I felt a little better.

Then Monday morning I took a peek at Gold Derby's Experts chart and felt a lot better.  Turns out that had I been listed among their experts I would have finished second to Perter Travers of ABC TV.  Peter went 19-4.  Two other experts were at 18-5 like me but Gold Derby has a points system that had me ahead of them substantially.  I won't name names but I came out ahead of a lot of the pros and that, I'm a little embarrassed to say, makes me feel pretty, pretty good.

The Gold Derby Experts results chart is linked here.

Of course, to bring me back to Earth, I finished 701 out of nearly 10,861 non-professional users...that's in the top 6.5%.  My points accumulated: 12,919:

So, all-in-all...not a bad record for me in 2023.

ALSO- turns out I made it onto Awards Daily's Big Bad Prediction Chart after I posted final predictions on Sunday morning.  Here's the link to that.

Over the last ten Oscars, here's what the MTFB success rate has been:

2023: 18/23 78.3% (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

2022: 21/23 91.3% (Coda)

2021: 16/23 69.6% (Nomadland)

2020: 19/24 79.2% (Parasite)

2019: 19/24 79.2% (Green Book)

2018: 21/24 87.5% (The Shape of Water)

2017: 15/24 62.5% (Moonlight)

2016: 15/24 62.5% (Spotlight)

2015: 20/24 83.3% (Birdman)

2014: 22/24 91.7% (12 Years a Slave)

That's 186/237 over the decade for a success rate at 78.5%.

Oscar 2023 was a rough year for Telluride films.  TFF films earned 17 nominations but only one took home a trophy and that was Sarah Polley for Best Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking.  Other places where TFF films had a realistic shot but came up short included Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for TAR, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed in Documentary Feature and Le Pupille in Live Action Short.

The 1 for 17 finish marked the lowest TFF Oscar haul since 2009 when TFF films had 16 nominations spread among seven films and none took home an Oscar.  The last time TFF had a one Oscar year was 2001 when No Man's Land won Best Foreign Language Film.

As I have mentioned, you might consider Everything Everywhere All at Once TFF-adjacent due to the fest's feting of Michelle Yeoh as a part of a salute to Sony Pictures Classics 30th Anniversary with a screening of Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.  I suspect Yeoh's appearance was, in part, to keep her in the limelight during the fall fest season for EEAAO's and her run to the Oscars.  I know nothing, but a calculation of that sort makes a good deal of sense.

Also in the "TFF adjacent" category was Documentary Feature winner Navalny which reportedly screened at one pf the parks in Telluride the Wednesday night before the fest opened.

LOOKING FORWARD

As we turn our attention away from Oscar season and back to TFF #50 speculation.  We'll be looking for three areas for clues.  Way-too-early Oscar predictions and the Cannes lineup and the post Berlin Film Fest's slate of films.  Cannes and Telluride average a 6-8 film overlap from year to year.  Additionally, early Oscar prognostications can give us insight into what Oscar watchers think will be the most "important" films of the year which usually translates into films that, at least early on, seem like films that many of the major film fests will want to program.

We already know that Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer and Greta Gerwig's Barbie are off the table as they are both announced for a July 21st release.  But despite that, there are a bunch of interesting possibilities on the table.

The first too early Oscar forecast I ran across from a major outlet was from The A.V. Club.  Among the titles of 23 possible Best Picture nominees were seven films that are on my early TFF #50 watch list:

AND from Yorgos Lanthimos

The Color Purple from Blitz Bazawule

The Holdovers from Alexander Payne

The Killer from David Fincher

Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese

Next Goal Wins from Taika Waititi

Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos

Here's the link to the A.V. Club's full list.

Meanwhile, for a good listing of potential Cannes selections, take a look at Jordan Ruimy's evolving list at World of Reel which currently includes a number of intriguing possible overlapping films between Cannes and T-ride including from the list above: Flower Moon and Poor Things.

Others that seem at least possible for TFF #50:

May/December-Todd Haynes

Monster -Hirokazu Kore-eda

Priscilla-Sofia Coppola

The Royal Hotel-Kitty Green

And finally from Berlin, Gold Derby compiled as list of 20 films and among those are some titles that are worth noting as possible TFF choices:

She Came to Me-Rebecca Miller

The Survival of Kindness-Rolf de Heer

Ingeborg Bachmann-Journey Into the Desert-Margerethe Von Trotta

Afire-Christian Petzold

Here's the complete list of 20 Berlin films from Gold Derby.

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Oscar #95 in the Books / Wild Life Trailer / Visitations: Oscar Winner Sarah Polley

OSCAR #95 IN THE BOOK

Here are your winners from last night's 95th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST DIRECTION: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTRESS: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTOR: Brendan Fraser/The Whale 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Women Talking

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Navalny

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Naatu Naatu/RRR

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST EDITING: Everything Everywhere All at  Once

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR: The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST SOUND: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: An Irish Goodbye

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Elephant Whispers

COMMENTARY:

TFF films go 1 of 17 on Oscar night #95 with the only winning coming for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking,  TAR, which led all Telluride films this year with six nominations ended the night with no wins.  TAR was in good company as The Banshees of Inisherin went 0/9, Elvis was 0/8 and The Fabelman's was 0/7.

Everything Everywhere All at Once won seven Oscars, the most since Slumdog Millionaire back at the 2009 ceremony. Picture, Directors, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

All Quiet on the Western Front picked up a four trophies for a very solid night: International Feature, Cinematography, Production Design and Original Score.

The only other film to win more than one Oscar was The Whale winning for Best Actor and Makeup/Hair.

My track record was 18/23 for a rate of  78.3%  That's about par for my course historically.  I was particularly pleased that I landed all three of the winners in the Shorts categories.  I don't think I've ever done that.

I missed Actor (I had Butler) and Supporting Actress (Condon), Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Now that Oscar 2023 is in the books, it's time to move to speculating about films that make the TFF #50 lineup in earnest.  One of the first things to look at will be those way-too-early Oscar '24 predictions that will appear in the next few days.  

WILD LIFE TRAILER

One of the buzziest titles at Telluride last September was Wild Life.  It's from the same crew-Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi-  that did Free Solo and The Rescue.  The film wasn't screened as a part of South By Southwest last night.

In conjunction with the SXSW screening and ahead of its public release comes a trailer which you can see here via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Oscar winner Sarah Polley talks to Deadline about her award winning Women Talking.

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SUNDAY SPECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL

SUNDAY SOECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL 

Here it is everyone, everywhere...my final Oscar winners predictions for 2022-23.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Possible Spoilers: All Quiet, Top Gun, Banshees

BEST DIRECTION

Winner(s): Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Speilberg

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Cate Blanchett/TAR

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Austin Butler/Elvis

Spoilers: Brendan Fraser/The Whale or Colin Farrell/Banshees

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

Spoilers: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere. Angela Bassett/BP: Wakanda Forever

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: No one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Women Talking

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoliers: Banshees or TAR

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Argentina 1985 or Close

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Spoiler: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: Navalny

Spoilers: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Babylon, Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Naatu Naatu/RRR

Spoiler: Hold My Hand/Top Gun

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST EDITING

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at  Once

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Babylon

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Elvis

Spoiler: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Elvis

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front or The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SOUND

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

Spoilers: An Ostrich Told Me and My Year of Dicks

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Spoilers: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: The Elephant Whispers

Spoiler: Stranger at the Gate or The Martha Mitchell Effect

THOUGHTS

The 14 categories that will determine who wins your Oscar pool:

Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Documentary, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and the three Shorts categories.

Tightest races from what I can see: Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Editing and Documentary Short.

As for Telluride we're likely to see the second straight year and the third of the last five years where the winner did not play at TFF.  Telluride had been on a long streak from Slumdog in 2009 to Nomadland in 2021.

The streak:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)

2011: The King's Speech

2012: The Artist

2013: Argo

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2016: Spotlight

2017: Moonlight

2018:The Shape of Water

2019: Green Book (not at TFF)

2020 Parasite

2021: Nomadland

2022: CODA (not at TFF)

Optimally it looks like the best TFF films might achieve from the 17 TFF nominations is seven Oscars.  I am currently predicting one win and that's for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and that is certainly no lock.  TFF"s next best bet is Cate Blanchett for Best Actress in TAR.  

There's a very real possibility that for the first time since 2009 that no TFF film will take home an Oscar.

If my predictions are 100% accurate (and I average 70-75%) this is how Oscar #95 turns out:

Everything Everywhere wins six: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Elvis wins three: Actor, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.

All Quiet wins three: International Feature, Cinematography and Original Score.

Single wins for:

Banshees: Supporting Actress

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay

GDT's Pinocchio: Animated Feature

Navlany: Doc Feature

RRR: Song

Babylon: Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects

Top Gun: Maverick: Sound

The Boy, the Mole, the fox and the Horse: Animated Short

An Irish Goodbye: Live Action Short

The Elephant Whisperers: Doc Short

Finally, this year's Oscar race has been wildly unpredictable so expect some surprises tonight.

I'll have a post-Oscars post up tomorrow for my regularly scheduled blogpost.  And we'll start it all over again for TFF #50 and Oscar #96. 

Enjoy the madness.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: Visual and Sound and Shorts / U.S. Trailer for Tori and Lokita / Visitations: Nighy, Polley and More

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

Here's a third pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories   Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.  Final predictions from MTFB are coming on Sunday morning in a special Oscar's morning post.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

3) Elvis (2)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5)The Batman (5)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)

3) My Year of Dicks (4)

4) Ice Merchants (5)

5) The Flying Sailor (3)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Elephant Whisperers (4)

2) Stranger at the Gate (3)

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect (1)

4) How Do You Measure a Year? (2)

5) Haulout (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) An Irish Goodbye (2)

2) Le Pupille (1)

3) The Red Suitcase (3)

4) Ivalu (5)

5) The Night Ride (4)

Thoughts: Best Sound seemed almost a lock for Top Gun: Maverick two weeks ago but there is a surge of sentiment for All Quiet and Elvis isn't out of the question  

As always, the Shorts categories are virtually impenetrable.  The closest thing to a lock there appears to be for Animated Short with The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse.  Live Action and Doc Shorts are a mess.  Live Action is probably down to the top two: An Irish Goodbye and Le Pupille while Doc Shorts are all over the place.  Literally any of the five nominees are still possible winners.

U.S  TRAILER FOR TORI AND LOKITA

The Dardenne Brothers returned to Telluride in 2022 with Tori and Lokita.  It was the brothers' first time back to TFF since 2014's Two Days One Night.  Now, ahead of its March 24th limited release we have a new trailer for the U.S.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Dede Gardner with The Hollywood Reporter and Sarah Polley with Indiewire.

Living: Bill Nighy with Vanity Fair.

TAR: Todd Field with Deadline.

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Dean Fleischer Camp with Variety.

Close: Lukas Dhont with Deadline.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: International, Animated, Doc and More / Writer's Guild and Independent Spirits / Visitations: Blanchett and Slate

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

We're staring down the last six days before the Oscars on Sunday night.  The last of the Guilds have spoken as well as the Independent Spirit Awards.  Oscar voting ends tomorrow.  It's almost time people.

Here are the next to last predictions for the categories of International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature,  Original Score, Original Song and Makeup/Hair.  Final predictions for all 23 categories will go up here on Sunday morning.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Argentina 1985 (2)

3) Close (3)

4) EO (4)

5) The Quiet Girl (5)

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (3)

4) Turning Red (4)

5) The Sea Beast (5)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Navalny (2)

2) Fire of Love (1)

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (3)

4) All That Breathes (4)

5) The House of Splinters (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Babylon (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5) The Fabelmans (5)

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) The Batman (3)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

WRITER'S GUILD

Sarah Polley won Best Adapted Screenplay at the WGA as well as the USC Scripter Award (which focuses exclusively on Adapted screenplays) this past weekend.  That's a good indicator that the TFF #49 film is in prime position to pick up that Oscar on Sunday.  There had been a sense that All Quiet on the Western Front might have the inside track to the Oscar.  That sentiment seems quelled now with this weekend's double win for Polley.

INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS

TFF #49 was represented in the list of Independent Spirit Awards on Saturday by wins for:

Best Documentary: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Best Cinemtography: TAR

Robert Altman Award: Women Talking

Best First Feature: Aftersun

Everything Everywhere All at Once was the big winner of the evening with wins for Best Feature, Direction, Actress (Yeoh), Supporting Actor (Quan), Breakthrough Performance (Hsu), Screenplay and Editing.

Complete winners are linked here at the Spirit's website.

VISITATIONS

TAR: Cate Blanchett with Variety.

MARCEL THE SHELL: Jenny Slate with Indiewire.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Oscar Thoughts / New Trailer for All the Beauty... / Visitations: Blanchett, Polley, Dhont and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here's the next to last predictions for both screenplay categories as well as Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.  My final predictions will go up in a special post on Sunday, Mar.12th. a film's previous rank is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

3) Living (4)

4) Glass Onion (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

3) TAR (3)

4) The Fabelmans (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

SCORE

1) Babylon (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (1)

2) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) This Is a Life/Everything Everywhere (4)

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Elvis (2)

3) TAR (3)

4) Empire of Light (4)

5) Bardo (5)

EDITING

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

3) Elvis (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5)TAR (5)

OSCAR THOUGHTS

Of today's six categories, four of them are real toss-ups at this point: both Screenplay categories as well as Score and Editing.

Original Screenplay might be the tightest between Banshees and EEAAO.  As a matter of fact, it's the closest of any of the 23 categories at this point.  

Then, in order of what feels like the next tightest races:

Editing  (Between EEAAO and Maverick)

Score (Between Babylon and All Quiet)

Adapted Screenplay (Between Women Talking and All Quiet)

 NEW TRAILER FOR ALL THE BEAUTY

Ahead of its March 19th unveiling on HBO we have a new trailer and poster (above) for Laura Poitras' Oscar nominated Doc All the Beauty and the Bloodshed which screened at TFF #49 once on the last day of the fest.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

TAR: Cate Blanchett with The Los Angeles Times.

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with Deadline and Kate Hallett with The Hollywood Reporter.

Close: Director Lukas Dhont with Awards Watch and also with A.Frame.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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