VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR #96 OUTLOOK
I'm continuing to check in with early predictions for next year's Oscars that might give us some clues about possible TFF #50 films and today's candidate is Variety's Oscar guru Clayton Davis.
Davis put up his first stab last week and I have combed through it over the last few days. Davis has the post organized by distributor so I'll follow along focusing on films that he has mentioned in the eight "major" categories: Picture, Director, the four Acting categories and the two screen writing categories.
Here's what I have so far:
Apple: Killers of the Flower Moon (Scorsese) and Napoleon (Scott). We should be hearing soon officially that KOTFM will be at Cannes and maybe get an actual domestic release date. Maybe even a teaser/trailer? Maybe Napoleon wits until 2024. Though I continue to offer up prayers to the programming gods...I 'm still realistically putting Killer's chances of a TFF #50 screening at 10%.
Netflix: Maestro (Cooper), The Killer (Fincher), Rustin (Wolfe), Nyad (Chin/Vasarhelyi) and Caste (DuVernay). At the moment I feel like all of these are low level possibilities with the exception of Nyad. It feels like the most likely prospect from the Netflix list. At least for now. Nyad's chances 25%. The rest of the list 10%.
Amazon/MGM: Saltburn (Fennell) and Flint Strong (Morrison). I have a fairly optimistic view for each of these films. Moreso Flint Strong than Saltburn. Put Flint Strong at 30% and Saltburn at 25%.
Warners: The Color Purple (Bazawule). Warners also has Wonka and Dune 2 coming but I think that those two films have almost 0% chance at a Telluride play. As to The Color Purple...I'm slightly more bullish on its chances but only slightly. Mark it at 10%. Warners may have players that will have already been released prior to TFF #50 in Ben Affleck's Air which seems to have been big hit at South by Southwest (which is where Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered last year on its way to seven Oscars) and Greta Gerwig's Barbie which will pop on July 21st...the same day as Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer.
Searchlight: Next Goal Wins (Waititi), Poor Things (Lanthimos) and Strangers (Haigh). With Haigh's recent TFF history (45 Years, Lean on Pete) and a TFF friendly cast (Paul Mescal, Claire Foy) this feels like Searchlight's most likely TFF entrant. Poor Things also seems a real possibility. Next Goal Wins feels likely even though its release date was recently moved from the summer to the post-Telluride, Venice and even Toronto date of Sept. 22.
NEON: The Actor (Johnson), Mother's Instinct (Delhomme) and Longlegs (Perkins) are all mentioned by Davis but I don't really have strong feeling at the moment that any of them are TFF possibilities.
Focus Features: Clayton mentions Asteroid City (W. Anderson) and The Holdovers (Payne). Asteroid City...which intrigues me, won't be doing any of the fall fests as it is currently dated for release on June 23. The Holdovers however...Alexander Payne's bounce back from Downsizing which is rumored to be a "return to form". It's scheduled release date of Nov. 22 puts right smack in the middle of the convo for fall fests. It is currently my pick as the best chance at a Telluride berth.
Sony Pictures Classics: Davis lists A Little Prayer, Shayda and Freud's Last Session. Though it played Sundance, I have already written that A Little Prayer might follow the same path that Manchester by the Sea, Living, The Report and The Father (had TFF #47 had happened) did and show up at The SHOW. Shayda screened at Sundance as well but doesn't fit the same profile as A Little Prayer. Finally, about Freud's Last Session...its production status is murky. None of these seem like a slam dunk but SPC's TFF history is long so expect some thing(s) from them at the 50th.
A24: Davis mentions Past Lives (Song) which played Sundance and has a June 2 release date and Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which seems like it could be a TFF possibility. The Coppola name has often been a part of the fest dating back to year one but Sofia's one Telluride outing was Lost in Translation back in 2003.
Davis mentions films from Bleecker Street and IFC which will all have been released prior to TFF #50.
One other intriguing note is Davis's highlighting of Jeymes Samuel's The Book of Clarence. He has it predicted for five Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Direction and Actor. The film is from Sony/Legendary- neither of which has had a Telluride profile but its reported release date of Sept. 22nd and its stacked cast (Cumberbatch, McAvoy, Stanfield, Oyelowo) makes you have to at least consider the possibility.
And a quick note about one of Clayton's predictions for Best Animated Feature: Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live? Considering Telluride's penchant for screening Miyazaki (The Wind Rises, Spirited Away, Princess Mononoke) and with this, perhaps being his last film, you have to think it's a realistic possibility.
SOME HINTS AND ALLEGATIONS
As April looms I thought I'd mention two or three things that will be important as far as the Blog is concerned.
It looks like MTFB will pass a couple of landmarks before TFF #50 takes off. Look for those announcements.
MTFB will be dormant after the April 13th post until May 4th.
I'm cooking up some pieces that will be special to the 50th edition of The SHOW some of which will need reader participation. I'm talking Tribute histories, Guest Directors and possible selections. Hope that's fun and that you'll join in when prompted.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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