CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: NETFLIX
One of the methods that I've used over the past several years to "inform" my TFF speculation is to look at the history of films from specific distributors and Telluride. It's not an exact science but can give insight.
So, without further ado we start with what has become over the last 7-8 years the most screened distributor at the Telluride Film Festival: Netflix. Netflix has screened 25 films at TFF since first showing up in 2015. That's an average of 3.6 films/year (I have left out the anomalous Covid year of 2020).
Here's the Netflix track record since 2015:
2015: Beasts of No Nation, Winter on Fire
2016: I Called Him Morgan, The Ivory Game, Into the Inferno
2017: First They Killed My Father, Wormwood
2018: Dovlatov, Girl, Reversing Roe, Roma, The Other Side of the Wind, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead
2019: Inside Bill's Brain, Marriage Story, Tell Me Who I Am, The Two Popes
2020: No announced films
2021: The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, Procession
2022: Bardo, Lady Chatterley's Lover, Sr., The Wonder
In 2022 it felt like Netflix's slate-both at Telluride and overall- didn't have the same punch as it had in 2018, 2019 or 2021.
That might change in 2023. I checked on the early Oscar lines from a variety of sources to get a sense of the heat for some of Netflix's films.
Variety's Clayton Davis has Netflix titles Maestro (d. Bradley Cooper) and May December (d. Todd Haynes) in his current "early" Best Picture predictions. He also has David Fincher's The Killer in his "Next in Line" list at #19.
Joey Magidson at Awards Radar has 3 Netflix properties in his Best Picture Top 20:
Maestro at #5
Rustin at #16
May December at #17
Mark Johnson of Good as Gold has 3 Netflix titles in his early Best Picture Top 20:
Maestro at #4
The Killer at #15
Rustin at #16
Gold Derby has Maestro and Rustin on its Top 20 "Incredibly Early" Best Picture Oscar contenders list.
So, with all that in mind, here's where I'd estimate we are regarding titles that are in the Netflix stable and their chances of a Telluride #50 play:
At the top is Todd Haynes' May December. Chances to play at TFF: 70%.
Then:
Nyad (Chin and Vasarhelyi) 55%
El Conde (Larrain) 50%
In the "maybe but lesser likelihood" category: Leave the World Behind, Pain Hustlers, Shirley, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and Rustin,
Right now, I'm thinking Maestro and The Killer (if it's even ready) are unlikely for T-ride. I'd like to be wrong about these.
VENETIAN THOUGHTS
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported over the weekend on the Venice speculation coming from Italy's La Repubblica.
Among the titles that are mentioned that could subsequent to a Venice screening find their way to the San Junas:
Matteo Garrone's Il Capitano
Jeymes Samuels' The Book of Clarence
Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things
Luca Guadagnino's Challengers
Sophia Coppola's Priscilla
Chin and Vasarhelyi's Nyad
Bradley Cooper's Maestro.
From this list I am currently most bullish on Poor Things and Nyad for TFF #50 and think the least likely is Maestro.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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